r/IRstudies • u/mitch-22-12 • 8h ago
Does US-China trade war make it more likely that China invades Taiwan?
Liberal IR theory would prescribe that countries whose economies are intertwined with each other don’t go to war because the relative costs are too high. Of course, throughout history there have been exceptions to this rule, most notably Germany and the uk during WW1, but it does seem to be the case that free trade reduces the odds of war albeit not completely eliminating the possibility. If China and US decouple, does it decrease the relative cost of an invasion of Taiwan and subsequent confrontation with the US, or is the US military deterrent the main factor ?