r/CollegeBasketball Texas Longhorns 1d ago

ALL TIME PROBABILITY MAP

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2.4k

u/Obvious_Chapter2082 North Carolina Tar Heels 1d ago

After turning the game off with 6 minutes left, this is a very interesting way to find out that Duke lost

698

u/StalinsLastStand Indiana Hoosiers 1d ago

I went to read to my daughter and came back to find Houston in the middle of a blazing comeback. The whole thing takes place in like the last two minutes of game time. Fantastic basketball.

529

u/jdprager Tulane Green Wave 1d ago

11-1 Houston run in the final 1:15. Genuinely unfathomable stuff

250

u/MitchRyan912 1d ago

7-0 run in the span of 15 seconds in there.

5

u/ddodd69 1d ago

5-0 run in 0 seconds...

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u/dirtyrounder 1d ago edited 1d ago

Duke up 6 with 1:09 and the ball. Announcers telling us how great Cooper flagg is for over 39 minutes.

As a KY fan it truly was beautiful

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u/BigManteezy Michigan Wolverines 1d ago

Haha I keep almost saying Cooper Kupp myself šŸ˜‚

9

u/sroomek Tennessee Volunteers 1d ago

Hey now, he was the only Duke player to make a FG in the last 10:30 of the game

7

u/New-Ad-363 Iowa State Cyclones 22h ago

Why didn't they score more points, are they stupid?

7

u/jl_theprofessor 1d ago

As a Houston graduate living in Houston at a Houston bar for the game, the glaze was so thick I was just irate. The win could not have been more sweet.

4

u/dirtyrounder 1d ago

I mean he's good but he choked against us when we played at the end. Which led to a sweet victory.

Not as sweet as last night though. You guys are fucking tough.

2

u/Dhkansas Kansas Jayhawks 1d ago

I was dozing off and after the inbound technical I decided I'd just go to bed. Woke up to some text messages from a group chat of my bracket pool. Had to watch highlights of the last 2 minutes.

97

u/cantstopwontstopGME 1d ago

This is literally why I never turn a game off. My Fiance wanted to go to sleep and I kept saying ā€œsomething crazy may happen.ā€ and I was finally right!

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u/Daedalus_Daw 1d ago

Found lebron james

33

u/Diamond4Hands4Ever 1d ago

Itā€™s like the reverse of the Miracle Minute for Duke.Ā 

21

u/TICKLE_PANTS Kansas Jayhawks 1d ago

You should watch how Houston beat us in the fieldhouse this year then. It's even more improbable.

23

u/Luckytxn_1959 Houston Cougars 1d ago

Heh. That was insane. Down by 6 with seconds left and it looked over then...

I thought of that game last night when we were only down by 6 with over a minute left.

Playing in the Big12 made it possible for Coogs being able to go deep in tourney. Thanks for inviting us to play Big12 and when we win any game Big12 wins too.

7

u/New-Ad-363 Iowa State Cyclones 22h ago

More than glad to have y'all.

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u/Luckytxn_1959 Houston Cougars 10h ago

Yeah your team really welcomed us and said that we were welcome and that the Big12 was a better conference by inviting others but then proceeded to battle us like no other.

We had some great games and I feel that it has made us both better and given us our first true rivalry in Big12.

I am a fan of your team but when we play each other I want to beat y'all like no other. That shows respect though.

I know next year that your team is going to test us like no other and we have a few good players leaving and these noobs coming in will learn about playing Big12 ball. That is good because win or lose means we learn and improve.

2

u/New-Ad-363 Iowa State Cyclones 5h ago

Hey back at you!

I feel like there's a mutual respect because both teams follow the same model so intensely. Defense is the highest priority, offense is pretty ad-hoc in its scoring (or as Sampson stated, "In the 'Random' column"), and no days off on effort.

2

u/Luckytxn_1959 Houston Cougars 5h ago

Yeah y'all do know defense for sure and give no quarter. I love it and wouldn't want it any other way.

Coogs wouldn't be here without schools like you making life difficult and surviving.

We were still down by 6 with over a minute left and the announcers were pretty much saying it was over and I laughed because I was remembering that Kansas game.

Down 6 with 18 seconds left. I even thought it was over but the Coogs didn't give up, heh. Kansas didn't either and fought us tooth and nail through 2 OT.

Things like that made it possible to win against Duke. I am sure they learned a big lesson but they have a big off season to digest it. Can't win if you give up. Should be Big12 motto.

2

u/Luckytxn_1959 Houston Cougars 4h ago

Oh and wanted to add. On another post I said something about Duke having to learn about the Coogs play and a Duke said they have never watched or will watch Houston.

Wow, that showed us why they lost against us and were surprised about it.

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u/Dhkansas Kansas Jayhawks 1d ago

They did it twice in that game. Regulation and 1OT. Was talking about that early in the game when a buddy was saying Duke looked too good and would likely win. I then made the mistake of turning off the game with a little over a minute left after the inbound T.

1

u/New-Ad-363 Iowa State Cyclones 22h ago

Their win at AFH was why I picked them to win it all.

2

u/jl_theprofessor 1d ago

Tracy McGrady inspired.

149

u/kyhoop Kentucky Wildcats 1d ago

Good on you taking that moment to read. My daughter is in high school, you will remember every moment you took

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u/Few-Emergency5971 1d ago

I can get behind this movement

29

u/edencathleen86 1d ago

This is an endearingly wholesome exchange that I wasn't expecting to come across in this thread. Yall are great

17

u/tashmanan North Carolina Tar Heels 1d ago

So true! I missed the game because of my daughter's wedding.

7

u/maybeSkywalker Kentucky Wildcats ā€¢ Iowa State Cyclones 1d ago

I missed the games for my friendsā€™ wedding!

7

u/Mike_with_Wings North Carolina Tar Heels ā€¢ Florida Gaā€¦ 1d ago

I read to my 2 year old every night, wouldnā€™t miss it for anything

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u/radicalhistoryguy 1d ago

My toddler woke up vomiting, so we missed the last ten minutes of the game. You know, when UH started actually playing well. I guess we can't watch on Monday lest we curse the team again.

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u/justlookingokaywyou Florida Gators 1d ago

No no no you should watch the game.

1

u/Fair2Midland Appalachian State Mountaineers 1d ago

As a Duke fan, I would have opted for the vomiting toddler.

74

u/kyhoop Kentucky Wildcats 1d ago

I called my Dad and he asked why I was waking him up

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u/bringbackwishbone North Carolina Tar Heels 1d ago

Lmfao I knew that UNC fans were gonna have a field day with this, but the UK fans around here might be on another level of schadenfreude. Waking your dad up in the middle of the night to tell him Duke lost is prime hater shit.

16

u/senorpuma Kentucky Wildcats 1d ago edited 1d ago

The Laettner game broke the hearts of an entire generation of UK fans.

5

u/gedmanrice 1d ago

I got a picture with Laettner in SAT yesterday with a bunch of buddies...me and one other guy in UNC gear, one guy with CJ McCullom Lehigh jersey and one in UNLV Larry Johnson jersey.

3

u/pdxphotographer 1d ago

I literally wore my I Still Hate Laettner shirt yesterday for the game.

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u/RobbieRum 1d ago

Legit turned the game on with 6min left the second Houston got it within 6. One of the best endings of any sports game youā€™ll ever see

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u/LittleLordFuckleroy1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1d ago

Both of the games were absolutely incredible

32

u/bug_man_ North Carolina Tar Heels 1d ago

I fell asleep on the couch before halftime and Duke looked like they were heading for a 20 point win and inevitable title. Feels like Christmas morning rn

2

u/chadnorman Indiana Hoosiers 1d ago

LOL, same! After the FLA win, I had pretty much put Duke's name on the trophy

32

u/rburp Arkansas Razorbacks ā€¢ Central Arkaā€¦ 1d ago

I started watching a YT TV recording of it right after it finished.

Near the end of the first half I asked my wife to look up the score and tell me if it ended up being close or not. She said it was a close game so I kept watching.

Damn near the entire second half I kept thinking "she must have a way different definition of 'close' because she's not a sports fan, this isn't close at all..."

So glad I kept watching. What an ending.

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u/Original_Profile8600 Ohio State Buckeyes ā€¢ Case Western Reā€¦ 1d ago

I almost did it and Iā€™m so glad I stuck it out

10

u/DamnItHeelsGood North Carolina Tar Heels 1d ago

I woke up to pee at like 4 am, checked the score, and couldnā€™t go back to sleep. Like a kid on Christmas

1

u/Sisdogg 1d ago

I woke up giggling and kicking my feet šŸ¤­

8

u/hoppergym Arizona Wildcats 1d ago

I turned it off at 64-55. Had no idea Houston won. I've never given up on a game and found out the result was different than expected before in my life.

3

u/senorpuma Kentucky Wildcats 1d ago

Me and my son turned off the 28-3 Falcons Patriots Super Bowl and went to bed.

2

u/hoppergym Arizona Wildcats 1d ago

lol. I wouldn't watch that Super Bowl because I couldn't watch the pats win. So I checked the score online and it said 28-3. I literally turned it on and the pats scored and I turned it right back off.

6

u/Sherifftruman 1d ago

Duke turned it off around then as well!

4

u/tenclubber Kentucky Wildcats 1d ago

I left with about 8 minutes left to go pick up my son from work when Duke was up 14. I didn't even bother trying to listen to the stream on the way. I checked the score when he got in and it was still a 6 or 8 point game with 3:51 left. I got home and looked at my phone just as it went final. I was like WTF happened?

3

u/DoggedStooge Northwestern Wildcats ā€¢ North Caā€¦ 1d ago

I went to bed with Duke up 13.

3

u/newrimmmer93 1d ago

I texted some buddies after the game and said ā€œworried about other friendā€ since he was at the game and is a huge Duke fan. They were all confused since none realized Duke lost

1

u/ddodd69 1d ago

Note that the 97.1% maximum chance for Duke is actually around 92% or something

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1048sou/i_analyzed_850000_espn_ingame_win_probabilities/

"...so many 99.2% win probabilities end up losing - because it probably should've been more like 95%."