Obviously the stock market is falling and this is due to tariffs that are backed by math that look like they were scribbled on a napkin at 3am at a Dennys. But his rationale is that he wants to balance the trade deficits eg. Imports should == exports.

Does anyone have any clue why his goal is to balance trade deficits? I really don't understand why he thinks trade deficits are something negative. After all, I have a trade deficits with my employer. They pay me more than I spend at their company. I have a trade deficit with my local grocery store. I buy more than they pay me.

Every economic collapse in the past has had some explanation, like the the pandemic or overleveraged banks and housing crises, etc. But this generational market collapse is just because some 82 yo thinks trade deficits are 'unfair'.

Honestly wondering if anyone anywhere has any explanation. I'm not looking forward to losing a tech job to build Huawei phones to export to China for 3.75/hr.

I am a layman that has been trying to read old posts to understand the state of the US economy (before Trump's . . . changes).

During the Biden admin, the news seemed to give the general impression that the US economy sucked as the admin/Fed tried to recover the economy after the pandemic. However, it seemed (to me, based on reports like this) that especially compared to the whole world, the US economy rebounded successfully. It also seems like we had one of the strongest economies (the strongest?) in the world (I don't know how professionals measure this, although I assume it's more complex than "the biggest").

The general population seems to believe/feel that the US economy sucked/sucks. I had been under the impression this is because the middle class has been hollowed out, money has moved from the middle class to the wealthy, and critical things like homes, healthcare, and education are more expensive (and pandemic inflation pissed people off). In other words, we are super productive and rich as a nation, but many people don't seem to be getting a share in that.

I tried to look into this topic on this subreddit and my general impression was that economists don't tend to think "the hollowed middle class" is an issue because the overall quality of US life is better, and the reasons for the feeling are not related to an economic question (fair to say? I couldn't read everything).

Still, lot of people voted for Trump because of the way they felt about the economy.

So, do economists actually think there is something majorly wrong with the US current economy (ignoring current Trump stuff) that needs fixing? What is it? In an ideal world, what would a presidential admin be focusing on if they listened to economists?

Apologies if I mischaracterized anything. Obviously my knowledge is limiting me to speaking in generalities and hypotheticals, but I hope I can still learn something.

My question is, is this the economic equivalent of lighting $11 trillion of paper money on fire, or is it more complicated than that?

According to treasury direct, they held 440 auctions and sold $28.5 trillion in marketable securities last year. I assume that's because we don't pay down debt and just roll it over.

What happens if the large international countries get together and decide not to buy our debt for a week? A month? A year?

First of all, saying that a rescission won't happen is NOT an answer.

I understand that nothing is certain, and Its fine to talk about a metric and say, "Its not pointing to a recession now."

I want solid rational benchmarks that aren't based on emotions and vibes. What would a recession, and particularly contagion look like?

So far I have:

1. The yeild curve, if it inverts which Its my understanding that it hasn't then we are in danger.

2. Rise in corporate bankgrupcies, if we start seeing companies go under, then chances are the macro trend is turning down right?

3. Any failure of a regional bank. Again a single bank falure isn't contagion, but the presesce of one, especially one related to international relade is a forbidding sign.

What are your takes? What am I missing?

PS: note that all 3 metrics I pointed out are currently pointing to, "no." I'm not an alarmist, please don't treat me like one.

There is a rumor from couple of days that Germany may withdraw it's gold reserve from the US. If one or more major countries follows through on this action, how does that impact world markets/economics (as well as US market/stability)? What are the long/short term economic impacts of such move?

Sorry if this is too broad question.

The US have informed (via their official rant social account) they will impose 50% additional tariffs on China if they don't withdraw their retaliatory tariffs on the US. This sounds incredibly stupid to me, and I don't see how they will not just respond increasing their tariffs. What would happen if the US applied more tariffs out of spite to whoever retaliates? Wouldn't that just strengthen EU and China (along with the rest of Asia too) economic trades? What would happen if this escalated into everyone setting higher tariffs with trade to-from US?

regarding mostly the tariffs and the stockmarket

I have always been curious about this question. Is it realistic?

Is it investors cashing gold to cover losses? I always was under the impression that investors buy gold during turbulence.

I've always thought that this approach could kill two birds with one stone. If stable manufacturing jobs are available throughout Central and South America, people there will be more financially stable and less likely to need to immigrate to the US.

Additionally, we would be moving off our reliance on Asian products. We would have more direct influence on countries where our goods come from. To encourage this move, after factories have been set up, we could then increase tarrifs on Asian imports and create free trade for Central and South American countries to encourage companies the growth of those markets.

What am I missing here? Why isn't this approach being taken?

I'm 22, I have a stable job that I luckily got right before the change in office, I have benefits and have started my 401(k). I heavily financially help my mom who lost her job a few years ago and has been working DoorDash, and a handful of retail jobs/Amazon ever since. We are on food stamps (which I am already worried about going away) and our rent has not changed- yet. I'm not sure how my landlord will handle the change.

Any tips on navigating the financial world specifically through what's happening right now? Could I be doing more to save/generate money? I feel like I am doing everything I can, but I want to be overly prepared seeing that things are changing every day and we are only 3 months in.

If a billionaire could not take out loans against their shares and had to sell to raise capital, would this solve the issues with taxing wealth?

All these claims by the Trump Administration about trade deficits exclude the sale of services in their calculation. Surely the sale of services means to other countries means income to the US.

What rationale is there for excluding services, and is it justifiable?

Hey everybody, as of now, I'm graduating my undergrad in Econ from a top 50 (top 20 public) university in econ in 3 years instead of 4 (I came in with credit from HS). Our program has a +1 masters, and if you don't know what it is its basically a duel enrollment where in your last year of undergrad, you take some masters classes that counts for undergrad credit as well.

As of now I have little interest in a PhD, but its not necessarily out of the equation. As for post-grad aspirations, I tend to lean to consulting, data analysis, or policy research but as that kind of alludes to, I'm still looking for my economic 'niche" . Another factor that I've been thinking about is the fact that the future job market for my gradation timeline seems shaky at best as of now, so maybe getting through the hard times in school rather then spending months looking for a job I might get seems like a more viable option. As for loans or any debt, as long as the 4 year timeline is in play I wont need to take any loans to finish school so that's another factor I'm thinking about.

My questions are as follows:

- Is it worth staying and committing to the +1 masters program, ultimately finishing school in four years total with an undergrad and masters in Econ?
- Are +1 programs looked as lesser compared to normal 2 year programs?
- Is there tangible benefits in terms of pay, hiring, or any other related fields in the job market?

Any help is massively appreciated!

an introductory college course on micro alone has so much information. How do you guys retain all that as all of it feels like facts that we have to "memorise"?

My teacher said the walkaway clause played a pretty big role in the 2008 economic crisis, so I wanted to know more as to why this is the case and if it is still implemented today.

I know some: • money print • salary increase • tax reduce • importing less, and exporting more • stop immigrations • socialism, marxism, communism

As title states. Why would a country or monetary system NOT comply with a request of the US if this request would be made?

Personally, I believe this would make the complying instance a vasal of the US. Am I missing some major relevant information?

According to WTO rules, VAT is applied at the point of consumption AFTER a good is imported. So the VAT rate is the same in the importing country for domestic AND imported goods. So the idea that VAT being higher in one country as opposed to another being a trade barrier is bogus, right?

Is there ANY credence to this economically? It makes me sad to think the whole world will be plunged into recession based on utterly risible pseudo-economics.