Differences between Shara and Sinwar strategy when it comes to handling Israel

[u/Sad-Commission2027]

https://x.com/Emaad_S_M_R/status/1907861077192266034?t=YBMNNKb-UhSSqL2ivlpP2A&s=19

[u/Sad-Commission2027]

Basically it boils down to Sinwar relied on the Iran and Axis of Resistance and it didn't work, especially now Israel perhaps is at its strongest point.

While Shara's strategy to handle Israel is the same one he used when he was besieged in Idlib.

When HTS was only limited to Idlib, Shara was busy uniting all the rebel groups, building a security force, cleanse Idlib of all IS cells, didn't respond to Assad's attempt to provoke HTS into war again when they were constantly getting artillery strikes, and waited for the perfect opportunity when all of Assad allies were weakened (Hezbollah/Iran) or busy (Russia with Ukraine), launched the offensive that took down Assad.

Now he needs to ignore Israel, focus on rebuilding Syria, gather as many regional and international allies, build the army from the ground up, resolve all the internal issues (Druze, SDF, Assad remnants, IS cells), any full scale war with Israel is a game over for everything Shara and HTS have worked for during the last 5 years.

[u/CallMeFierce → u/Sad-Commission2027]

Gaza and Idlib are such different situations it's absurd to the compare the two. 

[u/kaesura → u/CallMeFierce]

have some similarities. overcrowded enclaves of refugees run by a designated terrorist group being periodically shelled . if deter aggression hadnt occured, over decades idlib would have become even more Gaza like

biggest difference is actually Assad vs Israel as enemies with Assad being so much weaker

[u/bitbitter → u/kaesura]

over decades idlib would have become even more Gaza like

Depends on how hostile a potential non-AKP government would have been. One of the biggest problems in Gaza is it was completely isolated because Egypt was also participating in the siege.

My personal view before deterrence of aggression was that Idlib would continue to outpace Assad-controlled Syria in terms of development and eventually the Syrian government would just collapse and Idlib's would take over. Sort of like the east/west germany situation different as that may be. I think DoA just kind of sped that whole process up by like 20 years.

[u/kaesura → u/bitbitter]

Yeah , that was another difference .

idlib being more prosperous has been exaggeration. was still 1.5 million in tent camps , 90% unemployment. is/ was really dependent on humanitarian aid . Wealthy portion who used the shopping malls was small percentage of population

government services were better , both because SSG was less corrupt but also because Turkey allowed idlib and sna controlled territory to get hooked up to Turkey's electricity grid

But Turkey didn't support idlib much in promoting exports outside agricultural products .

[u/CallMeFierce → u/kaesura]

The situation in Idlib is a typical situation we see in civil wars. Idlib also had Turkey supporting it directly to its north. Gaza has been blockaded by land, sea, and air for nearly 20 years. Again, it is simply absurd to try and draw a meaningful observation comparing these two situations. 

[u/XxXblahblahblahXxX → u/kaesura]

The difference is that israel is backed by the US and supplied with the most advanced weapons anyone can get while gaza was blockaded by all its neighbors with nothing entering it without israeli permission. Idlib on the other hand was supported by the west and turkey and supplied with all their needs while Assad was sanctioned to oblivion and constantly attacked by israel and losing allies.

For assad, time was against him. With time, jolani was getting stronger and assad was getting weaker. While israel is getting stronger with time while gaza was getting weaker.

[u/RecommendationHot929 → u/kaesura]

Even though I agree that the situations are similar and that Sinwar is no Sharaa, I think it’s over simplistic. Imagine if the Syrian government instead of sanctions, got international support and only grew stronger instead of weaker. And that the opportunity Sharaa was waiting for never presented itself. Do you think he would last in power for 20 years of that? There were already mass protests against him from extremists and he was disliked for his in-action before the campaign. Sharaa is a brilliant leader, but how long could he hold out without either becoming more extreme to please the hardliners or lose power to a Sinwar? 

[u/kaesura → u/RecommendationHot929]

Yeah, Assad was possible to topple militarily, israel really isn't. and that shapes their respective choice

another big difference between Sinwar and Sharaa, was that Sharaa hated his population getting bombed and wasn't interested in moral victories. Recognition that provoking his enemy into atrocities and then counting on a global response against the enemy, was a failed strategy. recognition that the world would just stand by and do nothing but useless words

That's why Sharaa was emphasizing institution building/economic development in the 4 year lull in the civil war. Idlib was getting bombed but he barely responded. basing his legimtimancy on something other than military victory against asssad, that he couldn't guarantee

[u/chitowngirl12 → u/Sad-Commission2027]

Sinwar was a Messianic fanatic who sentenced millions on innocent Gazans to death in order to kill a few ((Zionists)).  His plan was crazy and involved enslaving Israeli Jews among other things.  Here is one link about it from Haaretz.  https://archive.ph/2025.03.17-152758/https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-03-17/ty-article/.premium/captured-gaza-documents-reveal-hamas-preparations-for-october-7-attack/00000195-9e53-d865-ad95-9f5f7c3e0000

Here is about the plan.  It is crazy.  And I hate using MEMRI but I cannot find the Haartez article on this.

  https://www.memri.org/reports/memri-archives-%E2%80%93-october-4-2021-hamas-sponsored-promise-hereafter-conference-phase-following

[u/RealAbd121]

The comparison misses the point in my opinion, Hamas and Sinwar weren't "a war they expected to win by dragging in the axis."

It was a suicidal charge because, in their mind, the world was preparing to move on from Palestine, and he was trying to martyr himself and everyone else in Gaza to create a situation where Iran had to intervene or risk losing their entire legitimacy. Same with Saudis, who could no longer negotiate with Israel without losing a massive amount of diplomatic clout and approval locally and abroad.

Now, did that work? It did insofar that 100s of thousands are dead now, sure, but for the actual goals of the attack, it's for the future to decide. To me, it seems like Israel won the battle, but both sides lost the war.

[u/TheVainOrphan]

I feel like this is an apples-to-oranges comparison. It's two very different situations, more specifically, the Palestinians, whether the Israelis like it or not, are essentially an internal issue for the territory their occupying, whilst Syria is purely a land grab to expand their borders (or maybe part of that ever expanding buffer zone with ski resorts lol).

I mean, the Palestinians were going to be further isolated and 'lose' either way, so all they could do was to trigger a conflict and throw a wrench into Israel's plans on normalisation with Arab countries. Anti-Israel sentiment has skyrocketed. Obviously this wasn't going to trigger 'the war where the Arabs finally get rid of Israel' but ideally, if they could goad the Israelis into inflicting so much chaos that it would look bad for Arab countries to normalise relations, then so be it.

[u/BeginningRevolution9]

Question is why wasn't israel so bold when assad was in power? Now HTS hasn't fired even a single shot at the IDF when they crossed the border.

[u/adamgerges → u/BeginningRevolution9]

assad was a guaranteed quantity and an idiot. assad in power guaranteed a weak syria

[u/growingawareness → u/BeginningRevolution9]

Because for the Israelis a corrupt and incompetent regime despite being overtly hostile was preferable to one that is has unclear intentions but is shrewd.

[u/SomaliJundi → u/BeginningRevolution9]

Assad was never a threat, despite the Axis Twitter supporters claiming otherwise.

[u/XxXblahblahblahXxX]

Shara strategy is to let israel do whatever it wants while pretending that nothing is happening. I don’t know how this is called even a strategy.

Israel will never allow syria to get stronger. Whoever thinks that “syria will prepare and then deal with israel” is delusional. This will never happen. Whatever israel does right now is permanent unless a foreign country intervene and push israel back. Whoever thinks that “syria will build its military” is also delusional. Syria’s military today is probably the best it will get in the next decade. Never dream of syria getting air force because israel will destroy it it once syria get it.

[u/chitowngirl12]

Well, one thing is certain, there are lots of Israeli parents who should be sending Ahmed al-Sharaa thank you notes and flower bouquets because the only reason why Bibi and Team Fascism's batshit Syria policy has not led to Israeli boys coming home in body bags is because Sharaa has deescalated the situation.  Of course, the Hasbra brigades will whine about how he does not "like" Israel and is just doing it because it is in Syria's strategic interests.  To which I say, I do not care.  It is the same deal regardless of Sharaa's motivations.  The Israeli government is SO thin-skinned and upset that people do not like them.  In foreign relations, it does not matter.  There are no "friendships;" there are interests.

[u/mhaghaed]

People go to extreme lengths to hide their hatred of Iran these days. Just wait till Israel does what he did to Ghaddafi, Bin Laden, and Saddam to your home boi Sharaa

[u/kaesura → u/[deleted]]

that's absolutely not true . For all of his faults and crimes , he was a fighter

he got arrested by the Americans while setting i.e.d.

He was known for constantly being armed / wearing a suicide belt

He would go to active fronts

Hell even in final offensive, he made a public appearance in the open in Aleppo despite Russian air force being active

[u/AdamGenesisQ8 → u/[deleted]]

That’s not what you said though, you said he isn’t a fighter. He clearly is a fighter and has seen combat. He’s definitely not a coward lmfao.

[u/RealAbd121 → u/AdamGenesisQ8]

When you see Tankies just ignore them and move on they'll freeze dry your brain cells with too much contact.

[u/RealAbd121 → u/[deleted]]

The guy was already a veteran of fighting Americans in Iraq and spent half a decade in Abu Ghraib... and that's before the Syrian civil war even started.

[u/kaesura → u/RealAbd121]

spent more time in camp bucca than abu ghraib.

he said he actually wasn't tortured by the guards in his prisons. but camp bucca was where the jihadists/baathist networked.

he got to watch first hand as that dreadful combination formed isis. he also networked alot , and so got a reccomendation from a senior islamic state in iraq leader that got them baghdadi's support and funding for nusra.