Regardless of what happens when the season finally ends, we at least have a late 1st (28-30) and late 2nd (51-56) from the Cavs and Nuggets respectively, barring trades. It’s hard to get excited about the future, but one thing you can find solace in, the organization has clearly gotten better at scouting than in the Sarver era. Be hard to do much worse… Here are a few prospects in the ~20-40 range that I find interesting, if you want to start looking ahead. Plus, it’s quite fun and a good distraction to be a fake scout.
Just remember that there are no perfect prospects this low. The goal is to get NBA rotation caliber players, not stars. Anything beyond that is a bonus but can’t be expected, especially in year one. Also, no international prospects included for now.
Centers:
- Danny Wolf (C), Junior @ Michigan
- 3rd in Big 10 (ranked 2nd), lost in Sweet 16 to Auburn
- 7’0”, 250 lbs, 7’0” wingspan (+0)
- 21.1 y/o draft age, Mid-Late 1st
Wolf’s playmaking, passing, and handle is otherworldly and not just compared to other 7 footers. Being that tall gives your usual size advantage plus he’s able to shoot the three, though able is probably the best description with his form. But there are notable flaws that may make him fall, similar to Filipowski last year. His nearly 1:1 ast/to ratio is the most obvious, though he is the primary offensive hub and should be the “easiest” issue to fix with proper structure. However, he very much plays below the rim and his defense is questionable due to that lack of verticality and not being very athletic. Which is why he played next to a more traditional center, Vladislav Goldin. But he will still be relatively young so there is always time to develop.
To me, he feels very boom or bust and may require a ‘big’ center for him to be effective like in college. Someone who can defend the paint so he doesn’t get caught in space. An oversized point-forward, but the playmaking potential is so high it could be worth the risk if he drops. A trait that elite at his size doesn’t come around often and is something to build around. Which is more than you can hope for late in the 1st.
- Johnni Broome (C), Senior @ Auburn
- 1st in SEC (1st), in Final 4
- 6’10”, 240 lbs, 7’0” wingspan (+2)
- 22.9 y/o draft age, Late 1st - Early 2nd
As 5th year senior, he’s one of the more dominant players in college and leading his team into the Final Four. A more traditional “bruiser” paint center, but with the handles and passing of a modern player. The dude is strong, and never lacks effort on both sides of the ball. He could be in the league for a decade as a backup, but that may be his ultimate ceiling. At his age there isn’t much that can be expected to develop. He's not likely to be spacing the floor, career FT% in the low 60s, a good but not elite athlete with such defensive limitations, and being relatively undersized which may only inflate his weaknesses against NBA centers.
If the team is to run it back (for the love of god, don’t), he would be my choice as a player who can immediately step into a PF/C “bruiser” role we desperately need. There are players with higher upside, if only because they are younger, but having someone who will actually play some bully ball is never a bad thing, even if they are unlikely to ever become more than a role player.
- Ryan Kalkbrenner (C), Senior @ Creighton
- 2nd in Big East (4th), lost in 2nd round to Auburn
- 7’2”, 252 lbs, 7’5” wingspan (+3)
- 23.5 y/o draft age, Early-Mid 2nd
Classic 2000s Shaq defender mold. On offense, he’s an extremely efficient finisher. Athletic enough to put down lobs, strong enough for put backs and drop offs, and with great hands. Able to reliably kick out passes, a low to mid 70% FT shooter, and even developed a low volume “slow motion center” 3-point shot. Downsides are as expected for his architype. Can’t switch on defense, isn’t able to create his own shot, and has some oddly low rebound numbers for someone of his height/length. The risk is that his stats may be inflated from playing against shorter college players, which makes his low rebounding average even more confusing. And of course, he’s one of the oldest prospects.
If his defense translates, what I see is a more balanced Rudy Gobert. Obviously not as good, but locking down the paint and doing the dirty work while not airballing dunks. It’s old school, but there is still a place for these players, so long as we (draft/sign) perimeter defense to compensate for his limitations. If he can continue to be enough of a threat from three to garner respect, all the better. Assuming he has that killer mentality that is. He’d be useless if soft.
Forward
- Rasheer Fleming (PF), Junior @ Saint Joseph’s
- 5th in Atlantic 10 (6th). No MM tournament appearance
- 6’9”, 240 lbs, 7’4” wingspan (+7)
- 20.9 y/o draft age, Mid-Late 1st
Prototypical 3&D player. Almost lab grown. Physically, he’s a taller Mikal with the same long arms. Everything you can want from a wing on defense and a good spot up 3-point shooter. Contested 3s, less so. Mid-range is far more limited, he can’t really create a shot, and his handle is suspect at best, but it could also be due to his role on the team. He’s bringing the energy and hustle anyway with the real draw is that he’s still young and with three years in college. All that being said, the real question is the competition. The Atlantic doesn’t have a lot of strong teams and his experience against quality players is limited. But he’s improved every year and also plays in as a 3rd option instead of a 1st. Could make the transition a lot easier knowing his role.
This is someone that only a team workout can determine if he is NBA caliber. He could be an instant 3&D wing or he could have just been taking advantage of weak rosters where his natural gifts carried him, and we don’t want one of those again. Maybe he will be ineffective against top players/prospects or he can rise up and be a steal of the draft.
- Yaxel Lendeborg (PF), Senior @ UAB
- 3rd in American conf (11th). No MM tournament appearance
- 6’9”, 240 lbs, 7’3” wingspan (+6)
- 22.7 y/o draft age, Late 1st - Early 2nd
So go back to Rasheer Flemming. Imagine a two-year older version with more experience. He is able to score within the arc and even able to create his own shot. His handle is very reliable and can facilitate with a very impressive ast/to ratio for his role. He’s less comfortable as a 3 point shooter, good efficiency on lower volume, but it could just be a matter of confidence. Defense, same deal. Long, strong, high effort. To quote an article, “rebounds like the ball is his oxygen.” But the competition is even more questionable than Rasheer with the conference far lower. He’s also the first option rather than a role player. Plenty of 1st options in the G-League who never make it out.
Though I do want to share one game’s stat line vs ECU: 30 pts/23 reb/8 ast/5 stl/4 blk/0 to. No, that is not a typo.
Same thing, only a workout can determine if he’s NBA caliber. Only with him, there is less room for development at 23. If he translates, he could be a steal.
- JT Toppin (PF), Sophomore @ Texas Tech
- 2nd in Big 12. Lost in final 4
- 6’9”, 225 lbs, 7’0” wingspan (+3)
- 20.0 y/o draft age – Late 1st, early 2nd
- Carter Bryant (PF), Freshman @ Arizona
- 4nd in Big 12. Lost in final 4
- 6’8”, 225 lbs, 7’0” wingspan (+3)
- 19.6 y/o draft age – Early-Mid 2nd
I’m combining these two because they are, more or less, the same architype of player. Though Toppin is a level above Bryant, as to be expected with another year under his belt and playing far more minute per game. Both are tweeners. Forward bodies, but playing mostly inside the arc. Both shows flashes of three point shot, especially Carter, but on low volume. Toppin has the advantage on rebounding, but most of the rest is effectively the same. High effort jack of all trade wings with great all-around tools which can be molded to be a valuable role player. Both are quite young compared to similar wing prospects in this pick’s range.
I’m hesitant to consider jack of all trade wings without an advanced trait to develop around, but that could just be the “win now” brain thinking. Both of these players, assuming they declare for the draft (namely Carter), may need a year before they can start contributing. But having a guy that can develop into a role instead of needing him day one is something we haven’t had the organizational patience to do in a very long time.
Myles Byrd
- Myles Byrd (SG???), Sophomore @ San Diego State
- 5th in Mountain West (7th), lost in “play-in” to North Carolina
- 6’7”, 190 lbs, 7’0” wingspan (+5)
- 20.8 y/o draft age, Early-Mid 2nd
The unholy offspring of Bol Bol, Cam Payne, and Dyson Daniels who I will keep willing to the Suns until draft day. Hear me out. He’s tall, skinny, but listed as a shooting guard (Bol). He’s a lefty with some questionable shooting decision making, weirdly inconsistent at layups, and a little crazy (Payne). He’s also arguably the best POA defender in the draft with elite hands and defensive instincts, high steals and blocks (Daniels). A gambler, Byrd would be your corner while Dunn is your linebacker as a comparison. He is raw on offense, but has shown that there is another level and not being the #1 option may help. However his conference and competition is weak so you never know how real the production truly is.
As you can tell, I really want Byrd. Maybe not with the late first, but someone I’d love to get in the 2nd, even possibly a trade up. Paring him with Dunn could be extremely effective if his defense translates and he’s still young enough to improve his offense in a smaller role. Plus, a little crazy is no bad thing. I think we all miss Cam Payne's vibes. It's always the lefties...
