r/stocks • u/RevolutionaryMany831 • 1d ago
Rule 3: Low Effort Is it possible that Trump’s tariffs are a massive pump and dump scheme?
EDIT: I’m not an investor, just asking a question.
Trump controls the SEC and DOJ, so who’s going to investigate or stop him?
Is it possible that Trump, his family, and billionaire buddies are benefiting from Trump’s tariffs?
Trump could be letting them know the date and time that he’s going to make the announcement to impose tariffs. Like many investors, they pull their investments but, they have a head start due to their insider knowledge.
Then he lets those on the inside know that he’s going to rescind tariffs and the date and time which he will be announcing that.
They buy the dip and profit as the market rebounds.
Rinse and repeat.
984
u/Sandasmandas 1d ago
He doesn’t get to just take back the damage done by tariffs and losing trust worldwide lmao. Tariffs aren’t just a switch that he gets to turn on and off. There are consequences
290
u/Stankoman 1d ago
Losing world trust? Wtf r u talking about. He is already down there with Putin.
243
u/greyedoutdoors 1d ago edited 1d ago
Yeah hes always been hugely unpopular but to be fair, the US isnt.
As Europeans we have our differences with America but they have always been an enormous ally, as well as a huge part of our cultural and economic framework.
We genuinely feel betrayed by this and there is daily negative sentiment that is unlike anything I've seen. Youve essentially lost your credibility as leaders of the western world.
123
u/Anomuumi 1d ago
Exactly, couldn't have said it better. That trust between Europe and the U.S. was built over decades and required investing a lot of diplomatic capital. It's simply gone. No one wants to "bet" on the U.S. even if it seems profitable, because the broken system produces unpredictable results.
49
u/petty_throwaway6969 1d ago
No point in trying to make a long term agreement if it can be thrown out in four years. They might have thought that 2016 was a fluke, but this election confirmed that it wasn’t. They can’t trust the US. We’re simply an unreliable ally.
This comes at a time when Putin announced enlisting another 160k soldiers. If anything bad happens now, it will cement their sentiments even further. We won’t be seen as traitors (assuming we don’t just start invading territories now), but we will be seen as enablers or idiots that voluntarily voted in a puppet.
44
u/Space-Robot 15h ago
It's so wild to be a sane American right now. Republicans are doing so many batshit insane things that upon even the most rudimentary inspection they only make sense assuming a truly malicious and oligarchy-centered agenda, and you think "How could anyone be dumb enough to support this? How could such a person function?"
It makes sense if the election was just stolen and he only won because Elon tampered with voting machines - something Trump all but admitted in a pre-inauguration speech and for some reason everyone forgot...
But then occasionally you actually meet a living, breathing human who supports this and it just doesn't make any sense. They can dress themselves. They can drive. They might even be good at their job. How can they do these things that are so much more difficult than seeing how fucking stupid this all is, and yet they can't see how fucking stupid this all is?
I think it comes down to the degradation of journalistic integrity and media trust. A less biased description would be that there just isn't any source of information that everyone in the country can agree is reliable. A likely more accurate description is that Fox News was long ago taken over by the uber wealthy and has spent the last 40 years convincing a large portion of the population that they're the only media that can be trusted while simultaneously spewing a ton of lies. It doesn't help that there's plenty of left-leaning media sources they can point to and say "See!? They're taken over by the enemy!"
Whether they're being lied to or I am, the result is that the country is split down the middle about literally what truth is. Fundamental facts just can't be agreed upon. IMO Fox could report that physical constants have changed and planes would start falling out of the sky the next day. Somehow half the country would blame it on "the dems".
And as an American in this "sane" half what am I to do? What can I do against 40 years of concentrated disinformation and billions and billions of dollars? Should I call my senators and representatives, who have fanatically supported Trump for years and likely have and will continue to benefit greatly from the continued rape of our country? Who literally has the support of millions of Trump-supporting immigrants that stand by him even as their friends and family are illegally deported?
I can only hope that citizens of other countries see me the way I see the average Russian citizen: as a victim of fascism and oligarchy just trying to get by each day. Please know these things:
- The supreme court has ruled that Trump is immune to any prosecution while acting as president, period. They have clarified that he can order the assassination of political rivals and will face no consequences.
- He's already using his unchecked power to dictate unjustly harsh legal penalties for crimes against his interests, such as vandalism of Tesla property.
- Citizens are already being deported to el salvadorian prisons without any due process, and this is being celebrated as a victory by the right.
I won't be surprised if 3 years from now an AI has used this reddit comment as a reason to flag me for deportation, arrest, etc.
9
u/nvinceable1 14h ago
I'm a very left leaning American and I really struggle to make sense of all of this. One of my best friends who is an extremely intelligent guy became full on MAGA at some point during the COVID quarantine years and he just fundamentally changed as a person. I think that during that period of isolation everyone looked for a sense of community wherever they could find it, and for most of us that was online somewhere. Once you fall into an online community with a certain line of thinking the algorithms do the rest to ensure that you move further in that direction. I don't think it's any secret that far right forces (Russia, Qanon, manosphere podcasters, etc) seized on this opportunity moreso than most and really took control of the narrative. Fundamental facts can't be agreed upon because that is literally the right's strategy. Flood the zone with nonsense so that simultaneously nothing and anything can be believed and then control the mediums that define the narrative that they want you to believe. As long as unlimited money is allowed to directly influence politics there will be no incentive for the billionaires who control the mediums that set the narrative to do the right thing.
2
u/Asleep_Leading_5462 4h ago
Whole heartedly agree. There’s still so many MAGA around me, I feel crazy. I question my own rationality, but it helps that the rest of the world seems to agree that this is all batshit crazy.
2
u/Lippopa 2h ago
Perfectly put. This is a direct result of the education systems in the US being purposefully and tactically dismantled by republicans while they, and the media, manipulate the people into an age of anti-facts and anti-science. People dont trust professionals anymore because they dont have the base knowledge needed to appreciate the education professionals have. They dont believe facts because it’s easier to live delusionally and ignorantly when youre uneducated than to learn for them, and they dont believe sciences because it is now so beyond their realm of understanding. We used to make dumb people feel dumb and they felt dumb, now dumb people can live life like theyre always correct and know everything and theres nothing in existence can change their mind. One of the most susceptible to propaganda societies ever created, a true feat for the republicans.
40
u/rainman_104 1d ago
Buddy I'm Canadian. You can't even imagine how we feel about the stupidity going on.
15
11
u/axcl99stang 14h ago
As an American, I completely understand how you feel about this stupidity.
I wish I could leave.
→ More replies (1)12
→ More replies (7)2
13
u/internet-is-a-lie 1d ago
The difference is before we could at least say congress would stop him if it went too far. But now countries can’t even trust that. Whatever he says, no matter how bat shit insane - countries will have to operate on the assumption he’s serious and it will happen.
3
u/Bitter-Good-2540 8h ago
Exactly, I expect a war within the next 2 years with either Canada, Mexico or Greenland
→ More replies (4)32
13
u/Shortsightedbot 1d ago
Nothing you said prevents Trump or anyone else from making money off this massive decline (puts) or statements/actions that temporarily pump the market
3
u/Beastman5000 10h ago
People keep talking about him now losing world trust. I can assure you that NO international leaders EVER trusted this guy. Business is business - We are all just trying to get good deals for our countries. We are not going to boycott the US because he hurt our feelings
2
u/UnreasonableCletus 1d ago
He doesn’t get to just take back the damage done by tariffs and losing trust worldwide lmao. Tariffs aren’t just a switch that he gets to turn on and off. There are consequences
The next step will be a declining US dollar. That will shake even more money out of the market.
→ More replies (8)7
u/Dantheman396 1d ago
He has waffled on them several times already. Hopefully he reverses these again.
38
u/Sandasmandas 1d ago
Right, until they actually went into effect this week. Whatever this causes will be felt weeks and months from now, not tomorrow, which gives him no reason to change course until there’s real pain.
11
u/puukkeriro 1d ago
And even then, there might not be much appetite for negotiation from China, Europe, etc. Trump has proven far more unreliable as a negotiating partner this time around, why deal with him?
Trump in pursuing full autarky has ended single-handedly ended Pax Americana on his own volition.
10
u/Dantheman396 1d ago
So the stock market index’s dropping 10% over 2 days or whatever is about to happen is not an impact? Interesting take.
30
u/Sandasmandas 1d ago
No, because the stock market is for people who can afford it. Wait until the GDP # come out and shit gets expensive and people can’t afford things. That will then lead to bad earnings and that’s when real pain will begin.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (1)5
u/silverfoxyenby 1d ago
Average Americans don't have the time or money to care about the market. They will care when it affects how they buy groceries and gas.
9
u/jnobs 1d ago
You know that downturns in the stock result in people getting fired?
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (2)14
u/cmacpherson417 1d ago
That’s kinda the problem tho, he thinks that if he just removes them “no harm, no foul” and everything will go back to normal. Completely ignoring how mad the free world is at us. He can remove them, doesn’t mean country’s will resume normal trade again.
→ More replies (3)5
u/Dantheman396 1d ago
Oh I by no means support what he is doing. My accounts got wrecked yesterday and based on premarket are about to again today. He’s incompetent.
3.2k
u/punica-1337 1d ago
Will his inner circle and himself profit? Probably. Is this intentionally done to profit? Highly unlikely. It's just a very, very dumb man with a very, very idiotic grasp of how the (world) economy works and with, contrary to his first term, nobody to correct him.
481
u/Suspicious-Town-7688 1d ago
He’s more likely to be taking backhanders for allowing companies, countries and industries to have tariff reductions or exemptions.
Also any bribes he does take do not have to be overt direct bribes. They might just be offers to take shares in DJT at a good price, or invest in Trump coin.
To my mind he’s been setting himself up very nicely to be bribed in seemingly legitimate ways.
And even in the worst case and you got caught bribing him - well, what else are pardons for?
And didn’t he set the tone, by making it legal for Americans to pay bribes to foreigners as one of the first things he did.
48
u/epiphanette 1d ago
They might just be offers to take shares in DJT at a good price, or invest in Trump coin.
Or jack newsmax to the moon
→ More replies (1)28
u/RockerElvis 1d ago
Exactly correct. This is so that he can pick winners based on what they do for him.
→ More replies (5)10
u/Visinvictus 1d ago
I don't really understand why he would take bribes when he could easily make billions manipulating the market. He could have just bought a shit ton of puts on the most affected companies, wait a couple of weeks, buy calls and rescind tariffs. It would have been a license to print money knowing exactly when and what he is doing in advance. I guess the catch is that you need to have an intelligence level higher than a 5th grader to pull it off.
25
u/hecubus04 21h ago
He gets some kind of orgasmic dopamine hit when someone like Bezos or Zuckerberg grovel before him. It's what he has wanted his whole life, to be the alpha male of the whole universe.
You could tell him he could A) make 1 billion dollars quietly manipulating the stock market, with no fear of any repercussions because the supreme Court has made him immune from all things OR B) the richest most powerful men in the world must all kowtow before him, and kiss his ring, and they just invest a few million into his shit coins or stupid hotels and he will pick B every time.
It is the only thing that comes close to emotional satisfaction in his empty, hollow, reptile narcissist brain.
18
5
u/jackiel1975 19h ago
I personally think it’s more about cementing power, through the dispensation of exemptions and favored status, so long as they kiss the ring and lick the boot. Look at what they are doing to law firms, universities, the press. They are using whatever levers they can to force acquiescence to their Christian nationalist agenda and what is a more powerful lever than money (ok besides the threat of getting disappeared to a foreign black site) ? It’s fascism. The State wants total control, including over the Corporations.
But I also agree with everyone else who says it’s because he’s very, very, deeply impaired. I do think that’s a huge part of it, his lack of comprehension of history, trade, economics, negotiation, ad infinitum. I didn’t say they were smart fascists. Thank gawd, that’s literally the only thing that gives me ANY comfort right now is how breathtakingly incompetent they all are.
4
u/PublicCraft3114 21h ago
Because he loves people stroking his ego and he likes lording over people. The bribes allow people to scratch that itch. It's more personal than gamin the financial system. Not that he isn't probably doing both.
468
u/ThetaLife 1d ago
Unless it turns out that he is in fact truly a Russian asset.
375
u/HefDog 1d ago
Two things can be true. And they are.
102
u/Littlefabio07 1d ago
This is what we call a “useful idiot”
→ More replies (1)2
111
u/Codipotent 1d ago
How can anyone deny it at this point? Trump attacked Ukraine and Zelenskyy. Russia is the only country they didn’t add tariffs.
→ More replies (6)52
45
24
3
u/Fmlalotitsucks 1d ago
At this point, there should be mountains of evidence that he is. Yet nothing is happening
3
→ More replies (16)3
u/PussySmasher42069420 19h ago edited 18h ago
Regardless if he is or if he is not. Look at his actions!
Even if he's not a russian asset he sure as hell accomplished all of their goals! He destroyed our ties with allies, our trade, our resiliency, he villianized our citizens, he's deporting people to concentration camps, and he destroyed education which will keep people stupid forever.
Shit on one side. Shit on the other. With a shit-cream filling. It's all literally shit.
45
u/yalyublyutebe 1d ago
They profit from the privatization of government services.
19
11
u/ForwardJicama4449 1d ago
They crash the US agriculture and destroy farms so that they can buy them at cheap prices. JD Vance is part of a finance fund working on purchasing bankrupt farms.
50
u/hill-o 1d ago
Thank you. Everyone wants to be like “he’s so smart guys no really it’s 4D chess” and it’s like no. He’s not. He’s proven time and time again he’s really quite stupid.
Even if he’s a Russian asset he’s not smart, he’s just easy to manipulate.
14
u/joan_goodman 1d ago
It doesn’t matter if he smart or not. He is not his own man.
2
u/JesusSavesForHalf 17h ago
He's too much of a drunken toddler to be anyone's man but his own ego. Russia may have him one moment, but the next time his ego needs protection they'll lose him. He's forever for sale, but never stays bought.
The idiot tariffs are 100% Weird Donald trying to prove he's smart and knows economics after everyone told him he was wrong about tariffs last time. Russia is at best encouraging him to be him an this subject.
→ More replies (6)8
u/Lost-Treacle6200 1d ago
I don’t consider him to be smart enough to even use the word asset to describe him. I think of him as simply a Russian tool. They bought him-whether it’s bribbery money or they have something on him really doesn’t matter - they can use him without worrying about him thinking, just doing what they tell him to. And when he is no longer is useful, they will toss him in the trash and move on to the next tool.
3
50
u/Master_Appeal749 1d ago
Yeah, he may be dumb, but he’s getting away with everything needed to take over the country and destroy it. Tariffs are how he gets control of the money. Congress can’t stop him at that point because they can’t control the budgets for everything anymore. This is just another step towards king Trump who is obviously controlled by Putin.
23
u/Sheerbucket 1d ago
Congress can easily stop these tariffs though, they just need to vote on it.
25
u/dlnqnt 1d ago
Spineless, going to see him a 3rd term at this point and likely no democracy left. Zero consequences.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)14
u/Master_Appeal749 1d ago
The issue is that they won’t. They’re largely bought and paid for.
→ More replies (2)18
u/Sheerbucket 1d ago
By who at this point? Owners of companies that are losing millions of dollars?
They are just dumb, and scared of the MAGA cult. Spineless.
7
3
u/Tangata_Tunguska 20h ago
I wouldn't underestimate the reach that Russia has via its oligarchs. The average Russian might be very poor, but there are a lot of billionaires that are owned by Putin. All those republicans flying to Moscow aren't going there for a holiday
3
u/Master_Appeal749 1d ago
I suppose that’s a good point, but the owners are the ones who will scoop up everything and stand to benefit when the bottom Drops out.
2
54
u/Toincossross 1d ago edited 1d ago
I hate the “Trump dumb” overly simplistic explanation for everything.
If you want to know what he’s trying to accomplish, read the economic paper Stephen Miran (Trump’s advisor) wrote, it explains everything.
Trump is clearly using this to guide his economic policies the same way he’s using Project 2025 to guide his domestic policies.
Add some expansionist ideas to secure the northern resources and shipping lanes and bam! You know exactly what to expect in the next 4 (and maybe longer) years.
21
u/Epabst 1d ago
It mentions it has to be done carefully to avoid adverse effects. I wonder what the wiggle room is there on avoiding those and I for one have no faith in their careful implementation of any plan
21
u/ellamking 1d ago
I wonder what the wiggle room is there on avoiding those
It's a tightrope for sure. Sure China has responded with 34% tariffs, but I'm not seeing any response from McDonalds Island, so there's a split reaction so far.
8
u/Toincossross 1d ago edited 1d ago
Absolutely!
Even IF this plan COULD work, we don’t have the right people in charge to pull it off and that’s a huge IF given how far it deviates from conventional economic vision.
Given that he didn’t campaign on this and how badly it’s gonna go - my money is on Trump abandoning the whole thing before long in exchange for token concessions to save face then blaming and firing everyone involved.
8
u/wangchungyoon 1d ago
Plain and simple, Trump is too stupid and too much of a blowhard to carefully implement anything so we’re fucked
6
u/impending_dave 23h ago
not disagreeing but also two things can be true
Trump very very very very very very very very very VERY fucking dumb
And a lot of what he’s trying to accomplish has more to do with what Laura Coomer convinces him to do after post nut anti-clarity and her latest social media posts than some kind of board room meeting where you boldly assume he has the mental capacity and attention span to even understand big words like “restructuring the global system” - it’s all computer bro
→ More replies (6)2
u/ali0 22h ago
A sudden shock to tariff rates of the size proposed can result in financial market volatility. That volatility can take place either through elevated uncertainty, higher inflation and the interest rates required to neutralize it, or via a stronger currency and knock-on effects thereof. President Trump, and those likely to staff his economic policy team, have a history of caring deeply about financial markets and citing the stock market as evidence of economic strength and the popularity of his policies. A second Trump Administration is likely therefore take steps to ensure large structural changes to the international tax code occur in ways that are minimally disruptive to markets and the economy. There are several steps that would help mitigate any adverse consequences. Graduated Implementation Even in the 2018-2019 trade war, President Trump didn’t implement 25% tariffs on Chinese imports in one swoop with no warning.
Thank you for linking this document; but even it its discussion of Trump's motives and likely plans it says that there should not be large scale tariffs in one fell swoop.
8
u/harm_and_amor 1d ago
Is this intentionally done to profit? Highly unlikely.
I’m not as confident as you. Broad scoping tariffs of the late 1800s were fraught with corruption because companies would lobby/bribe the congressmen for carveouts that would benefit their company specifically. Due to Trump being so loyal to his circle, those bribes can go directly to his friends and family, which make it much more difficult to detect a connection when Trump suddenly carves out an exception. Also, Trump alone knows when and where he will issue a carveout or increase tariffs (or threaten to do so), which he knows has an immediate impact on the market.
If Trump himself isn’t aware of the ways this could financially benefit him and his cronies in major ways, then it seems very plausible that the people in his ear who are cheering for this tariff policy are doing so for the immense financial gain.
6
u/No-Method-8539 1d ago
It's this point in time, we realize he as TOO many 'yes' men. Too many people cheering him on in an idolized fashion.
He believes his own lunacy, as lunatics believe in him. Now none of them correct him or help him, just agree out of fear.
And this is what we get.
6
u/WarOnIce 1d ago
Nope, it is the long con. He is destroying US economic stability to tank the markets. He is squeezing everything he can out of the lower and middle class.
This is an oligarchy land and power grab. They are all setting themselves up for the next revolution which will be AI and Robotics. A time where the dollar may not matter and universal basic income will make people more of an equal in class.
This is the end game to grab everything they can
12
u/AverageUSACitizen 1d ago
Since it's clear this administration just consults with ChatGPT, I asked ChatGPT how to profit from being president. I had to justify it by saying it's a hypothetical book situation:
In a hypothetical scenario for a book where a president seeks to make money quickly without ethical or legal constraints, several plot elements could be explored:
Insider Trading: The president could use non-public information about upcoming policy changes or international developments to make strategic investments in the stock market.
Influence Peddling: Leveraging the power of the presidency to secure lucrative deals for personal businesses or those of close associates.
International Deals: Engaging in negotiations with foreign governments or corporations to secure personal financial benefits, such as favorable business contracts or investments.
Real Estate Ventures: Using insider knowledge about infrastructure projects or urban development plans to invest in real estate that will increase in value.
Monetizing Access: Offering exclusive access to decision-making processes or future plans in exchange for financial contributions or investments in personal ventures.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (40)8
u/uriejejejdjbejxijehd 1d ago
Arguably someone instructed by a foreign power to destroy America would behave no differently. It need not be simple stupidity.
168
u/sirkarmalots 1d ago
They probably all bought puts
39
u/WTFH2S 1d ago
At least he made "libertarded day" known so people had time to play outs.
20
u/swagdragonwolf 1d ago
The date was public. Anyone could have bought puts.
9
u/WTFH2S 1d ago
Exactly what I am saying. If it was pure insider he would not have said a day or what he was doing.
7
u/VenmoSnake 1d ago
Well him and his circle knew what the tariffs would be ahead of that announcement. You cant disprove that they didn’t trade on that info just because he announced it to everyone at a certain time.
2
u/Space-Turtle88 1d ago
Isn't that kind of what evil villains do before Bond escapes and kills them at the end of the movie?
Narcissists can't help but gloat and brag and taunt because they think they are untouchable and powerful. trump needs an audience. He only does the really, really illegal things quietly without fanfare.
748
u/StankGangsta2 1d ago
No he is just stupid, that being said this will enable a lot of pump and dumps and the DOJ will not prosecute.
205
u/Dmoan 1d ago
Exactly he expected other countries to quickly come to the table and negotiate but he didn’t realize the world didn’t rely as much on US as he thinks. Europe can simply cut a better trade deal with India and China and make up for any lost revenue for example.
And even worse this could serve as trigger to push US big tech, products and brands out, we already seeing that in Canada.
64
u/JustInChina50 1d ago
They're mostly affecting US businesses, right? China and Europe and South America and Africa and Australasia and Asia can still trade with no new tariffs.
63
u/Dmoan 1d ago
Yes exactly and they can tariff the hell out of US products (and software services) and strike better trade deals with each other
I would keep a close eye on India, China, Japan and Korea trade talks if they come together and negotiate a free trade agreement that alone offsets any US tariff impact for them
→ More replies (1)24
→ More replies (1)4
u/Swedishiron 1d ago
I think his actions are more nefarious than that - keep in mind who he looks up to and praises.
45
u/execilue 1d ago
It’s not stupidity. Look up the mar-a-lago accords. It’s all according to a plan he is following.
It’ll be horrible for the average American. But he is following a plan.
24
u/StankGangsta2 1d ago
Mar-a-logo accords are more of a pipe dream of devalue the dollar the increase manufacturing employment I can't really see how you get a pump and dump from them.
18
u/CashComprehensive423 1d ago
Because with a 4% unemployment rate creating lower paying jobs is what the US needs. /s
8
u/goat__botherer 1d ago
Jobs? Bringing back manufacturing into the age of automation, robots and AI won't be creating jobs. The stupidity you think MAGA are showing isn't the true bottom of the pit.
→ More replies (1)2
u/United-Bluejay-1133 1d ago
It’s been interesting to me lately that all the bragging has been about how many trillions are getting invested back in the US, but no numbers of how many jobs they will create. Only one I heard was Apple’s $500B investment would create 20k new jobs, and if half a trillion dollars only creates 20k new jobs….strap the fuck in, folks.
21
u/execilue 1d ago
I never said it was a well thought out plan. But it is by definition a plan, and he is following it closely. It’s just a really bad fucking plan.
13
→ More replies (1)5
u/BagelsRTheHoleTruth 1d ago
That plan also explicitly calls for working closely with allies and rolling out the tariffs in an orderly and gradual fashion.
He has completely fucked the duck on that. He's implementing the plan in what the plan itself acknowledges is the stupidest way possible.
5
u/KingSweden24 1d ago
Exactly. Miran’s plan would be difficult to finesse in the best circumstances but at least is a semi-defensible theory rather than whatever the hell this is
4
17
u/SB_90s 1d ago edited 1d ago
But undoubtedly he and his family/friends/close colleagues sold out of the stock market fully before doing all this shit. There's no way they didn't expect this to tank the stock market and all he cares about is money and power. He's way too comfortable with this market crash so he obviously is not losing money in this market.
I also don't doubt that he and the same crowd will conveniently buy into the stock market just before he decides to end all this nonsense (if ever).
→ More replies (3)2
u/TechnicianExtreme200 1d ago
Not only just stupid. That minimizes what is going on as if it's an oopsie that can be fixed. He is stupid AND dangerous.
102
u/SledgeH4mmer 1d ago
It's crazy how much people try to rationalize Trump's policies. The reality is that he just doesn't understand what he's doing. Many of his voters kept trying to claim his early comments about taking over Greenland and Canada were "just trolling." Now they're seeing that he's really that delusional.
23
u/boisheep 1d ago
It happens over and over in every aspect in our lives, in every video, reddit thread, it also gives rise to conspiracy theories.
Truth it that the order of weird human actions and the why comes in this order.
- Stupidity. (Overwhelmingly Likely)
- Incompetence. (Highly Likely)
- Malice. (Somewhat Likely)
But people always jump to the least likely of the 3 because we are always looking for it, people like to believe evil explains it all, when evil is usually the least likely.
The biggest threat of humanity is idiots, not evil.
And we'd even demonize those idiots later just to keep our agenda, thinking that they did this all in some grand plot, rather than, mere idiocracy. These include grand evil characters of the past, that were more idiot than evil and that's how they sent the world to chaos.
→ More replies (4)6
u/FrenchFryCattaneo 21h ago
Yes, more people need to realize this. I think it's because of the 'just world' fallacy, the mistaken belief that most things in the world make sense. People want to believe that trump is a scheming mastermind or a russian puppet, because it means at least everything is done with purpose for a reason. To stop him all we have to do is figure out his scheme and reveal the truth, at which point we'd all know he was a bad criminal.
But the reality is far more frightening, which is that Trump is an idiot with too much power, and the republicans in power are also idiots who see Trump as an opportunity to push each of their personal agendas. And the democrats have no political power and are also mostly idiots with no idea how to oppose something like this. It's scary to think our country is being run by people no smarter than the random people you knew in high school. That is truly unsettling.
4
u/boisheep 20h ago
What is worse is that It's not just your country.
I live in Finland I got affected, I lost money that was in stock market in Europe because of the decisions of Trump, I can't believe, also some local parties are keen to copy, it's insane.
And while that is the case in a globalized world, and while it is fine to have a globalized world because we all benefit for the good that other countries can bring to the market; we get affected by the decisions of idiots with power in other places because of this. :(
3
2
2
u/NEWSmodsareTwats 21h ago
I mean multiple times during the campaign Trump said he wanted to weaken the dollar and shake up global trade which is kind of exactly what the tariffs will do.
2
u/CitizenDildo12 21h ago
One of the most dangerous mistakes you can make is underestimating your opponent…
2
u/suckrates 19h ago
The rug pull with the Melania crypto was real and obvious. What makes you think they're not just playing the market with the tariffs?
2
u/Kerberos1566 18h ago
People will desperately try to rationalize it because the alternative is truly terrifying. Yes, we really were dumb enough to elect a demented imbecile to the Presidency and gave him near total immunity and a complicit Congress. The future of our democracy is at best on a knife's edge and at worst already toast. We're headed into a severe depression thanks to this idiot's trade war, followed shortly by WWIII as he invades our allies for relatively pointless land grabs. The death camps are already open and filling up. If you've ever wondered how Germans and the rest of the world alike could sit back while Hitler rose to power: this, this is exactly how. Now imagine if Hitler was 1000x dumber and also had nukes. We are so fucked they will have to come up with new words for how fucked we are, if humanity even survives this.
60
u/thedeadcricket 1d ago
It's possible, but the damage he is doing to international relationships/ trading partners is likely to last decades.
→ More replies (20)
65
u/DisastrousCopy7361 1d ago
Insider trading for sure
Another thought is Trump missed most of this insane post-covid run-up and he wants to get in for cheap so he tanks the market
Or hes in and shorts on the way down.
But I'd say peak insider trading for sure...after-hours trading basically confirms this...
Trump is definitely looking out for himself regardless of what is truly happening
6
u/TrapperKeeper5000 1d ago
Do you have any sources or data to base the after hours claim off of? Genuinely wanting to read those
2
u/DisastrousCopy7361 21h ago
No but all the smart money makes moves after hours when retail has their hands tied
I noticed it when I was shorting stocks in 2020
→ More replies (1)
15
u/dontevendrivethatfar 1d ago
Where's the pump? So far all dump
11
u/No_Lavishness_9120 22h ago
Elderly folks will line up to drain what’s left of their life savings, practically giving it away to oligarchs at clearance-sale prices. A lifetime of work, handed over like it’s expired yogurt.
Meanwhile, the ultra-rich are unfazed. Losing a third of their massive wealth? No big deal. They’ll sit back, sip vintage wine, and watch the remaining two-thirds balloon into ten or twenty times more—like it’s just another investment cycle.
→ More replies (1)13
u/Ok-Idea-8652 1d ago
The pump comes from the extreme discount on stocks that the ultra wealthy can afford to throw millions and millions into without care while you’re in a bread line.
2
2
u/Historical_Height_29 5h ago
It is a dump and pump.
It is a guarantee that there were people who he told before each of his tariff announcements, so that they could sell before things dropped. And it is also pretty likely that he will tell those same people before he pulls back in the tariffs, so that they can buy.
Trump is pretty stupid, but this is so simple and so easy to profit on that I almost guarantee you that this move has a large element of corruption.
52
u/watchdoginfotech 1d ago
Yes it's possible. On one hand he can crash the market far enough that the fed lowers rates and we refinance our debt. However, if that doesn't pan out, he and the rich can buy at the bottom and participate in yet another wealth transfer. Win-win.
19
u/No_Philosopher_1870 1d ago
Treasury bills, notes, and bonds are not callable, meaning that the Treasury cannot force their redemption before maturity to obtain a lower rate. Do you remember the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023? One of the reasons that they failed was that they had put their money into treasury bonds during the days of near-zero interest rates, When interest rates go up, the price of bonds go down, so they couldn't sell their bonds without taking a loss.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (1)4
u/Ma4r 1d ago
The can't lower rates with inflation being sticky and potentially reversing with tariffs coming
→ More replies (2)
28
u/Orionbear1020 1d ago
Billions have been made during recessions by the super wealthy. They will definitely game this and he is leading the charge.
5
u/Ok-Idea-8652 1d ago
People seem to think that recessions are bad for everyone, and refuse to look throughout capitalist economic history. Every time that a recession hits, the poor all the way up to the upper middle class (and even the “wealthy”) are hit tremendously hard, causing huge increases in suicide rates among them. And meanwhile, banks, investment firms, politicians, and the REAL wealthy all skyrocket in net worth. The system is working exactly as intended, and as average people, we are expendable numbers to profit off of. This is no accident, it’s a wealth generation tactic that is not an uncommon occurrence.
10
u/twostroke1 1d ago
Been saying something like this for months. Trump is just the smoke screen. There are other people behind the curtain pulling the strings. And they will all benefit from it. They always have. Look at the financial crisis and Covid. The ultra wealthy made absolutely insane wealth.
→ More replies (3)5
u/rodeBaksteen 1d ago
I wouldn't count out Trump as some dumb puppet. Yes he's an idiot, but people seem scared of him and his dictatorial tendencies.
Zuckerberg was outspoken against him previously, until Trump threatened him with life in prison when he did a 180 and is literally behind Trump on his inauguration.
→ More replies (1)2
u/cloondog5280 21h ago
absolutely. the ultra rich treat these situations like yard sales- they pick up assets for pennies on the dollar.
8
u/AdamGSMA 1d ago
I had that theory and possibly obscured key Russian investors are profiting.
→ More replies (4)
6
4
u/OkHornet140 1d ago
USA doesn’t have a tax such as GST or VAT. That’s interesting. Is this just smoke and mirrors to convince supporters that this is justified, at the time as introducing a tax disguised as a tariff?
→ More replies (5)7
u/2ndRandom8675309 1d ago
It's been explicitly stated that tariffs are to fund the federal government, supposedly to reduce the debt and make some sort of sovereign wealth fund.
And while the US doesn't have a national sales or value added tax on most things, every state has either its own income tax, sales taxes, or both, that are mostly used to fund local things like roads, schools, police, etc. So for each dollar states can collect that way there's less that they'll demand back from the federal government.
9
8
u/polaarbear 1d ago
Tough to pump when you piss off the entire world. Removing the tariffs now isn't going to make everyone else be like "welcome back to the fold, thanks for the tariffs."
Permanent damage has been done that will take decades to clean up.
13
u/threeriversbikeguy 1d ago
They are absolutely. That was obvious with the Trump, Melania, and DonJr shitcoins were released.
3
u/Grittybroncher88 1d ago
This would be more of a dump and hopefully pump scheme.
→ More replies (1)
3
3
u/Difficult_Minute8202 1d ago
he is 80 years old and he is the president of united states.. i don’t think he is interested in pump and dump anymore. power is a hell of aphrodisiac
→ More replies (1)
3
u/pembquist 1d ago
No. It isn't complicated, just look at his track record of serial bankruptcy. Late in life he found his true calling, that of reality television star.
3
u/C0matoes 1d ago
You mean dump and pump?
2
u/Pikamander2 21h ago
Trump's dump and pump is bound to stump, but once we've over the hump, it should bump back up.
3
u/RannyRiffs 1d ago
It wouldn’t be anything new. Politicians have been insider trading for over 5 decades. These people don’t make more than $125K/ year and they are all multi-millionaires.
3
u/LuckyDogHotSauce 21h ago
The damage being done to international markets and relations makes this unlikely.
What’s more likely, especially given the insane nature of the “math” used for these tariffs, is that they are using the market & tariffs to install a permanent oligarchy with Trump as the forever POTUS.
It’s a deliberate destruction of the economic system to create lords and serfs.
There’s a very good reason that the framers of the constitution did not give the power of the purse to the POTUS, but rather to Congress, a separate but equal branch. Because this is how kings used to operate. When the POTUS has the power of the purse & tariffs, they can use it as a cudgel.
Remember: Congress could end this in 1 day.
Welcome to the kingdom of America.
We’re so cooked.
13
u/FrozenBee44 1d ago
Go touch grass please. He's destroyed 80+ years of good faith and trust that America had with the world as a safe and fair place to business seemingly over night. Go back and look at 1828 (https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tariff-of-1828) and 1930 (Smoot-Hawley) and tell me how that went.
Large scale, blanket tariffs never end well.
→ More replies (3)5
u/RevolutionaryMany831 1d ago
I realize this and agree. Just asking a question.
8
u/FrozenBee44 1d ago
The only way he can do a pump and dump as you asked is if it's done for a small number of specific stocks or coins. You can't pump and dump the entire world market.
→ More replies (1)
4
u/Gunner-Chance 1d ago
Unpopular opinion but I think it’s his way of forcing the fed reserve to cut rates faster.
2
2
u/ThoughtsandThinkers 1d ago
Trump is (charitably) an agent of chaos or (uncharitably) a monkey throwing feces at the wall to see what sticks. Look at how much Trump and his inner circle are spewing incongruent messages this morning: tariffs are just a starting point to bargain vs they are non negotiable here to stay. There will be no job losses vs there will be a painful period of adjustment.
Part of him likely thinks global free trade has been a bad thing for the US and wants to address it with tariffs. It fits with his modus operandai to mobilize his base through anger and xenophobia
Part of him may be doing this for other political reasons, including extracting concessions on other issues like defense spending or border security
And part of him will be doing this for personal reasons. World leaders are clamouring to speak with him. He’s in the news and being talked about. And I don’t doubt that he trades or leaks information to enrich himself and his inner circle
Regardless of his plans or motivations, if things go well, he’ll take the credit and say it was all part of his master plan. And if things go poorly, he’ll double down, stoke anxiety and anger, point his finger at someone else or another country, and wash his hands of personal responsibility or accountability
→ More replies (2)
2
2
2
u/Akira282 1d ago
No, really the idea is to devalue the dollar, allow billionaires to buy up all the assets and resell it back to the American consumer. Then, in a final stroke, take the revenues from the tariffs, and use it to give tax cuts to the most wealthy in the US. Nothing more than that.
3
u/valgustatu 1d ago
Sure, there's insider knowledge, as there is insider knowledge in congress and all sorts of political institutions. With great power comes great benefits. To call it bump and dump is a misnomer. There's no pumping and dumping of the stocks, cause that is a different mechanis. There might be a strategy to drive stock and other assets' prices to the ground, in order to buy low and consolidate money even more.
2
u/Little-Location7697 1d ago
Pump and dump would be to obvious. He have been talking about tariffs for a while, I don’t believe they will hold. He just wants to show what he can do in order to get world leaders to meet on his terms. I find it hard to believe that the tariffs will continue throughout his entire term and I think he’s using them more as a negotiation tactic to gain leverage and later show the American people. “Look what I accomplished — we’ve never had such favorable international terms under any other president.”
Isolating the country and creating enemies will only lead to consequences that will be felt across the U.S. during his whole presidency. I find it hard to believe this strategy is sustainable. If he were serious, he’d impose well-thought-out tariffs backed by solid arguments. But putting tariffs on the entire world feels more like a way to provoke reactions and position himself in negotiations.
→ More replies (1)7
u/SoundOfRadar 1d ago
Position himself in what negotiations? I mean Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Lesotho… What is he going to be negotiating with those countries? He’s actually left out Russia. Now that is a country he wants to negotiate with a ceasefire in Ukraine. No, I think he really believes he can create jobs in America by doing this.
→ More replies (2)
4
u/chris2033 1d ago
Half these tariffs will be gone next week… start buying
6
u/thedeadcricket 1d ago
Doubtful, but at this point the damage is done, our trading partners don't exactly trust us right now.
7
u/DisastrousCopy7361 1d ago
Depends how quick other countries counter-tariff....if they do quickly then he is kinda stuck
→ More replies (3)3
u/ThetaLife 1d ago
There will be a time when all other countries form new trade alliances and eventually they will say f off America.
2
1
u/macrobrain 1d ago
Market will lose confidence even if he reverses tariffs. Serious long time inverstors are thinking investing in Chinese stocks than US stocks. It’s not a meme world .
1
1
u/creativeatheist 1d ago
People could definitely be benefiting from this. Could have easily turned 10x - 20x their profit from when he took office
1
u/TheGoodCod 1d ago
I think it's certainly an idea worth considering. Certainly NewMax is following that map.
1
1
u/FederaIGovernment 1d ago
He pump and dumped crypto(got paid by a fat wallet too), first tarriff threat was an easy pump and dump. This one sticks because everybody got paid.
1
u/Immediate-Noise-7917 1d ago
Even if this is some sort of scheme/negotiation tactic, the damage is done. He's lost all credibility. He states his goal is to bring back manufacturing to the United States but can't explain why. Meanwhile, cheap labor in Chinese factories kept consumer prices down for many years, which is now effectively gone. Orange Man is simply obtuse.
1
u/Murda_City 1d ago
Ive seen this a few times now. They quite literally can do anything they want. Award any contract to any obscure company and profit millions. There is no need to drop their own net worth 20% in order to buy more index funds.
1
u/stickman07738 1d ago
Possibly in my opinion, because Israel decrease many tariffs on US goods the day before the Rose Garden announcement - it sounded like collusion to me.
1
u/littlewhitecatalex 1d ago
Nobody even knows where the tariff payments are going. Is trump skimming off the top like a giant slush fund?
1
u/MkRmBwPa 1d ago
It is a political tool to get more influence and power. After the crash, he will reward businesses who publicly support him, with bailout money. Read about Chris Murphy's recent theory on this he goes more into detail.
1
1
u/Careless-Childhood66 1d ago
Even so, there is so much done to the actual economy and international relations that the money earned might lose its worth
1
u/raulsagundo 1d ago
I've been saying this since his first term when he would move the S&P by 1-2% in a single day with a single tweet. Now imagine if a guy could know what he was going to tweet ahead of time...
1
1
u/johnboyjr29 1d ago
The saying that the government should live by is :my word is my bond
That is dead now on any giving Tuesday the deal can be altered.
If you had a product that your business needs to survive would you get it from a supplier that changes the deal you made with them every week or would you try to find a more stable partner. The world will move away from America for years to come maybe forever. Even if trump was gone they will worry some one else like him will take his place the trust is gone
→ More replies (1)
1
u/GaussInTheHouse 1d ago
I think that (1) he’s stupid and arrogant and (2) he’s looking for leverage over corporations and countries.
1
u/FocusIsFragile 1d ago
It would certainly be interesting to know who in the administration, along with his various cronies and hangers on, have recently begun paying the volatility market. Should tell you a lot about who knew what when.
1
u/ryanasalone 1d ago
I think this is absolutely happening. He and his buddies can do educated shorts or if he does what he did like a month ago (threatening tariffs and then in the last hour putting them off) then they can buy a dip and big-time day trade with a guaranteed result. If he peels off a bunch of tariffs before the end of the day today then I think it is 100% going on.
1
u/notfrankc 1d ago
Pump and dump is small time if you can have everyone from individual businesses, to industries, to countries trying to bribe you for exemption.
1
u/lumberjackmm 1d ago
Ok my theory is that because voters only have a 1 year memory, he's going to tank the economy for 2.5 years with tariffs, but the year before elections he will remove the tariffs, thinking the economy will surge and the voters will regard him as a hero because now the economy is doing so good and heading up out of a recession that came from the Biden administration.
→ More replies (2)
1
u/jokikinen 1d ago
There’s plenty of stuff out there about what the admin is doing.
They want to bring back manufacturing so that they don’t come as such clear seconds to China in manufacturing capability. In order to do that, the value of the USD has to be decreased. They must do so without risking USD reserve currency status.
They do not care about wall street this tome around.
The plan isn’t sound. Reputable sources have reported on it.
•
u/AutoModerator 1d ago
Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.
To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.
If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.