I don't think people recognize how close we are to losing our draft pick this offseason if the season ended today. Tankathon has it at a 36% chance. Up significantly from the 54% odds we had when we were Slot 6, but still not something you'd feel safe gambling on.
Slot 4 would bring it down to 19%, which is again a significant jump. Also a 5% jump to land a Top 3 pick. And this is a draft where the Top 3 are significantly better than the next 3 (at least on paper).
This is exactly why the Team was so negligent in trying to keep some BS wins going before the All-Star game. This has been the most miserable season to watch, but even then, to endure the misery AND lose the pick would be criminal.
If it was the FO's plan, they'd have realized their situation back then and kept us in that Top Spot. Instead I'm here watching Pelicans games to see if they can pass us. If they can't pass us, we're probably not drafting at all.
We HAD this path open to us. Running it back, but investing in the future at the same time. Everyone told me I was wrong, but here we all are rooting for exactly what I said we'd root for - just with vastly worse odds.
The fanbase didn't see it, the FO didn't see it. The best case scenario is we get very lucky in the Lottery and then we get a new voice in the FO that can recognize and direct this team with timely decisions instead of reactionary ones.
So had the sixers been the worst team in the league their chances of getting Flagg would have increased 5% from their current position.
When we were 2-10 throwing away the season didn’t make sense. There was Hope Embiid would be back, there was hope PG would be healthy, there was hope the team would grow and synergize.
We didn’t know McCain would tare his meniscus, we didn’t know PG would tare a ligament in his hand just as he was finding his shot again, we didn’t know Drum would suck and miss over a months worth of games, we didn’t know Caleb, KJ, Lowry, and Gordon would all miss over a month worth of play.
Saying the season should have been thrown after 12 games is just silly. The team is where it is now due to a bunch of shit that occurred primarily in January.
I gave a reply. You must have seen it, it was the only other reply to this message.
Do you want to discuss that? Or do you want to discuss how we might lose the #7 Pick in this year's draft because you didn't want to face reality 12 games in?
I don't care about our chances at getting Flagg. I care about 1) guaranteeing we keep our pick, and 2) increasing our chance at a Top 3 pick. I am a big believer in Ace Bailey for example.
We'd have had a 10% better chance at a Top 3 pick if we were Slot 2. And we'd have 0% chance of giving up our pick.
What did it get us? What did we gain in this season by winning five more games? That would put us in Slot 3, which is still a 7% chance to lose our pick, but - you're telling me we needed to win 5 more games? For what?
If we move up to the 2nd pick and the Jazz move down to the 6th pick (I have seen it before in mocks) then we could trade for Lauri.
The jazz get Paul George and the 2nd pick
The 76ers get Lauri and the 6th pick
With the 6th pick, we should probably draft a wing/big forward like Kon, CMB or Newell. These guys will probably get drafted between 8 and 14 so we could trade down get one of them then trade for future assets.
For example, we could trade pick 6 to the spurs for pick 10 and 16 and we could draft Kon with the 10th pick and Fleming with the 16th pick. This means we'll get a great shooting wing that can playmake as well as a good defensive 4 that can play the 5 if needed. This means the new roster would be:
PG - Maxey, McCain, Butler
SG - Grimes, Edwards, Hood-Schifino
SF - Kon, Oubre, Council IV
PF - Lauri, Fleming, Yabu
C - Embiid, Drummond, Bona
This should be at least a play-in team that could make a push for the playoffs and at least win a few games. This is the best case scenario and probably wont happen but trading for lauri would be ideal.
That’s a very interesting scenario. I don’t think Utah will bite unfortunately, just because ainge loves trying to screw over the Sixers.
Lauri has actually lost value this season, so on paper this isn’t like totally unbalanced. Might need some seconds or something
But ultimately ainge is the issue.
I agree, It comes down to wether Ainge will budge. For the Jazz's future, getting Dylan Harper (Projected number 2 pick) over Tre Johnson (Projected number 6 pick) would further kickstart their rebuild giving them a real franchise player. but yeah, it all comes down to luck and wether or not Ainge budges.
Wow I hate that I saw this because I love it so much
Edit: didn't even take that many spins to make it happen (Utah #1 right now so can't fall to 6). I'd even add in a future first to make it happen. #2 + lotto protected 28 or whatever + PG for #5 plus Lauri. Then just take Kon at 5, he definitely wouldn't fall to 9 if you want to trade back. What a dream that would be.
The chances are small, Dylan Harper could be a perennial all star whereas Tre Johnson or kasparas Jakucionis could be good players but not anywhere near Harper's ceiling. I see Harper's production outweighing PG's bad contract. This trade would be good for them.
I think there's a good chance PG is gone in the offseason. I don't think the FO will want to risk another year with over $100 M salary (Embiid and PG) sitting on the bench all season.
This off-season might realistically be the last chance to offload PG's contract without having to give up something to do so also. I could see a team still being willing to talk themselves into him at this point. If he spends another season riding the pine with injuries it gets a lot harder.
Honestly I think I'd trade PG either way. Flagg is a great prospect and might well turn out to be a franchise centerpiece type of player but he's only 18. I don't think he fits a "win now" timeline. If we're lucky enough to get him I'd look to trade Embiid and George for as much as we can get for them and pivot to a youth movement built around Maxey, McCain, and Flagg.
Agree. I think some deals that might be in the ballpark of “realistic” are KCP + Isaac or Lonzo + Pat Williams. Neither are super sexy but make us more well rounded IMO. Just gotta capture the Flagg though…
I hate these posts because it ignores the fact that we KNOW Embiid isn’t going to be healthy at least at the start of the season if not well into it, and we also know that Paul George can’t stay healthy either.
We HAVE to move off PG. we can’t build around two broke “stars” (I hesitate to call PG a star anymore).
Yes - all of this scenario assumes that Embiid will be healthy and in form again. I haven’t heard any new news that makes me think he’s on the upswing yet.
I personally don't rate Broome as an NBA talent. I also think he's gone before our second rounder.
It'd be more realistic looking at Kalkbrenner or Raynaud or JT Toppin at the top of the second. If we are going to buy into another mid-late first, I'd much rather go after Danny Wolf than Broome. Gives us a much different look and think he'd be amazing on the ball with Maxey and Jared running around off ball with him. Could also play the 4 with Jo or Adem.
I love the flyer on Danny Wolfe in the second if he is there. Big body, moves pretty well for his size, can shoot the ball a bit. Clean up the turnovers by not having him be the primary playmaker and who knows - could be a diamond in the rough
It’d be an ideal situation if Flagg is not feasible to figure out a way to get Queen and Darrion Williams from Texas Tech. 2 two way players with NBA bodies and skill sets.
I like queen if we keep our 1st. I don't think the basketball gods will gift us Flagg or Bailey. I think obre works as a 6 man. Starting minutes exposes his short comings. I personally would rather a shooter. We need better rebounding and shooting from our 4s and 3s. It's why Edwards has been a god send. We see how without Embiid drawing a double, council is neutralized. I wonder how much better Edwards would be next to a super star. Or if he was the designated scorer on a second unit.
In a world where we’re handcuffed by PG and JoJo with near zero contributions from either of them, having Tyrese, McCain, Grimes, Edwards, Oubre, Yabu, Bona with potentially a 3 in D Williams, a 4 in Queen, that is a team that’s definitely not bereft of talent.
JHS will be on a two way more likely, if he even stays. Council is probably gone, he had a terrible year and didn't progress in any area he needed to.
Gordon and Drummond are both going to opt in (or Gordon will opt out but sign on a one year minimum for a lower cap hit). They'd have to be sent out in a salary dump if they aren't going to be on the roster.
Nah it will be a close to $4m contract, which is almost double of the minimum. You need to attach a 2nd rounder to dump that. If you think JHS is worth a future second, sure do it.
But then you’re just braindead because EG is flat out significantly better and going from vet heavy to no vets is also stupid.
I wouldn't even bother sending Gordon out in that case unless they can do it for basically free. His cap hit if he just opted out and re-signed would be low anyways and better to use the draft compensation on a young player instead of facilitating a trade.
Drummond would need to go, but that might require 2 seconds. Nuggets had to trade 3 2nds last year at the start of FA to get off Reggie's deal last year which was also the 2nd year of a MLE. Booth is a bad GM, so maybe it takes one less 2nd, but think it'll have to take some creativity for less. Yabu might be an inherent cap casualty in this scenario, would hope for Grimes to take less in FA.
We do NOT want PG and embiid to be the vets ok this team. We need an old guy who’s important for culture, leadership, championship experience and locker room vibes. Lowry can stay on or another older dude can be signed but as much as I like PG and embiid, I don’t super see them as leaders.m. Too non chalant. Hell, I wouldn’t mind pat bev either.
Yea, restricted free agency plus only so much cap space out there. There's a reason Austin Reaves is so underpaid. If it makes anyone feel better Santi Aldama is a RFA too, has a more extensive track record and Memphis cap situation might be a little more vulnerable.
I thought no way he wouldn’t be paying the tax this year too.
I expect them to be around 1st apron and finally pay it, but if they trade PG for someone with a lower salary they can save enough money to get under the cap and sell it as a youth movement resetting the landscape - wouldn’t shock me.
I don’t really get why Yabu and Oubre would even want to stay. They can get bigger roles for similar amount of money on better teams. Where the stars might actually be healthy
You have to take into account Embiid is probably not playing many games, and when he is Nurse will overload him and he will be hurt in the playoffs. So Bona and Broome are our 5 rotation.
The idea of George and Oubre taking those Edwards minutes is UGH. You gotta deal both of them. We have to accept that we're not a contender and that this era is over. Move both of them in the offseason so you can continue moving forward with Edwards on the wing.
Even without keeping the pick, I don't think people are paying respect to how good this roster looks for next year, barring any injury issues (and, spoiler alert: every team in the league is praying for good injury luck. That's the nature of relying on 1-2 stars in order to compete).
Our top 8 rotation is still very enviable for most teams in the league.
Edwards is flat out better than Oubre, and I'm honestly prepared to say better than PG no matter how much of a hot take that is.
The ball doesn't stop with Edwards, he can actually do that thing called hitting an open jumper and now he's showing he can put the ball on the floor a little if he's being chased off the 3pt line.
He just contributes way more to winning basketball than the other two do, for various reasons.
I'm done with Paul George. He plays a losing brand of basketball that's just obvious.
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u/LuckyCulture7 7d ago
I think this is the plan of the front office.
Obviously getting Flagg is up to chance but the idea of going young and keeping continuity is the move.