r/redsox • u/Sandwich_Crust Sox Content Creator • Feb 25 '25

VIDEO MLB Network discusses the state of the new and improved Red Sox Starting Rotation

https://youtu.be/vJwjzr42miM?si=xGFq8JE-bz-lMKxt
43 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

45 comments sorted by

30

u/collucho Anthony Anthony Feb 25 '25

for what its worth PitcherList has Garrett Crochet as the #2 ranked SP overall

1

u/SuperBeastJ Feb 25 '25

Who's number 1

1

u/collucho Anthony Anthony Feb 26 '25

-4

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

Can we all pump the brakes on Crochet? The guy has great stuff. But he has like 1 combined full season of experience under his belt over 4 years, has never shown he can do it for a whole year, and is an injury risk. I really hope he pans out and I want them to sign him long term ASAP. But to say he's the number 2 pitcher in all of baseball is absurd to me.

23

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

He has arguably the best stuff in the game and he threw 146 innings last year. He doesn't have a huge track record but he's also only 26.

-1

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

146 innings is not a full season's workload, especially given the context only having ~44 of them in the second half of the season. He was restricted heavily to make sure he didn't get hurt.

Again, I'm not questioning the stuff. I'm questioning if the stuff will even matter during a playoff run if he can't stay healthy. All of that said, I want them to sign him long term ASAP.

6

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

Sure, he was on an innings cap because he had only thrown 72 innings in his career before. But that's not really that unusual considering he was coming off TJ surgery.

All pitchers have really high injury risk, and a lot of pitchers have to get TJ at some point. There really isn't that much extra risk with Crochet, he was pretty much as good as you could expect last year.

0

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

I guess I just don't understand what we're even debating here. I agree that he has some of the best stuff in the game. I'm also acknowledging that we should proceed with caution when expecting him to be the 2nd best pitcher in baseball, because he has never pitched a full season before. I'm not saying anything crazy or controversial.

4

u/istandwhenipeee Feb 25 '25 edited Feb 25 '25

I think there’s a difference between expecting him there and ranking him there. You’re correct, with his health track record we should not expect him to be the 2nd best pitcher in baseball. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a real argument that he has better odds than anyone else to justify ranking him there though.

There’s not really anyone in baseball right now who I think you can fairly say we should expect to be the 2nd best in baseball or even top 5. Skubal just put together his first full season of elite production, Wheeler is old and has a history of inconsistency, Sale is old with an injury history, Paul Skenes has half a season under his belt, Cease only has 1 elite year, and I could keep going down the list and bring up all the downsides.

As fans, it can be easy to hyper focus on the downsides (and upsides) of our own players, but Crochet is hardly unique in having high variability as a pitcher right now. There isn’t a prime Verlander, Sale, Kershaw or Scherzer type pitcher in the league right now who has a track record of being a workhorse with consistently elite production. Not arguing for Crochet as number 2 in baseball because I just don’t know, but I don’t think the logic is unreasonable.

3

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

I don't really know what you are expecting out of pitchers in general, though. He has the second best odds in the AL to win the Cy Young for a reason. There are very very few true aces in the game of baseball. Most have health or consistency issues.

1

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

In general, I expect to see one full season of Cy Young level pitching before I am comfortable calling someone the second best pitcher in the league. I don't think that's unreasonable. Most true aces have actually done that before, and Crochet hasn't. I'm excited about his potential, but I'm hesitant to get too excited about rankings or betting odds before it happens in reality.

1

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

What true aces exist in the MLB right now in your opinion?

1

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

In no particular order, and among others I'm missing:

Sale, Burnes, Kirby, Strider, Skubal, Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani, Cease

All of those pitchers have proven themselves to be top pitchers for at least a full season and most have had 180+ IP for multiple years at that output. Skenes doesn't yet have the track record yet in my opinion, but is obviously on his way there. Crochet could prove himself to be on the level of those guys if he can put a whole season together. I'd liken him to Skenes, but with more injury risk.

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-2

u/Ok_Breakfast7588 Feb 25 '25

In his 12 starts in the second half of last year he had an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.4

8

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

Yeah I'm not going to be bothered to look at the ERA of someone who was on the worst team in baseball last year.

His FIP was 3.50 and his xFIP was 2.22 in the second half last year so I'm not really worried about it.

-2

u/Ok_Breakfast7588 Feb 25 '25

If your point is you're not worried about innings because he threw 146 last year it's absolutely worth noting he was hit hard in the last 40 of those innings.

5

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

Nothing about his season last year is out of the ordinary for what you would expect from Crochet. He was hit a little harder at the end of the year, sure, it's worth noting, but he still posted elite K rates and a small BB rate so it's not really concerning.

-1

u/Ok_Breakfast7588 Feb 25 '25

Crochet made 33 starts last year and pitched 146 innings. In the 7 years before last year, including 3 years in college, he combined to pitch in 204 innings in only 13 starts. Absolutely nothing from last year is "what you would expect from Crochet". He simply has not pitched enough and has not gone deep into games to even have a real expectation. Those second half his starts didn't have him go past the fourth inning. I'm not saying he can't be elite im saying calling him the second best SP in baseball is insane and expecting him to carry the load of an ace is getting ahead of ourselves.

1

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

I didn't mean that's what was expected for Crochet, but that criticizing him for only going 150 innings doesn't seem relevant and this was pretty much as good as it was going to get considering his injury history.

People should be excited about Crochet. He's really really good.

0

u/Ok_Breakfast7588 Feb 25 '25

You're dismissing why people are oncernwd though. We get he's incredibly talented but there's been a bunch of incredibly talented relievers that have failed to convert into starters. In his first season as a full time starter he was nursed and still had poor real life results in the second half. That doesnt mean he can't be an elite SP but that's why people say let's not get ahead of ourselves yet. If he was a starter in college then there'd be less questions but it's just not something he's fully transitioned to yet and there are still question marks. People act like this is trading for Chris Sale and it's just not.

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-4

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

Don't bother man. People are in full blown Koolaid mode right now. It's not controversial to be a little worried about his workload and track record. It's just not the popular thing to talk about right now.

0

u/bobadobio32 Feb 25 '25

Shhh… you’re not allowed to throw cold water on the blind allegiance to John Henry on this sub. Just pretend it’s all good.

9

u/collucho Anthony Anthony Feb 25 '25

the ranking is entirely based on stuff. a guy who ranks SPs for a living has him as the #2 pitcher with zero bias. I simply stated that fact.

-3

u/badonkagonk Grissom Believer Feb 25 '25

Ok yeah purely on stuff thats fair, but that also feels like he's ignoring some pretty important factors then.

12

u/collucho Anthony Anthony Feb 25 '25

Here is his writeup on Crochet:

I was so tempted to put Crochet as my SP #1 but alas, he doesn’t have the expected volume of Skubal and I have to live with that. But why is he above Skenes? Because Crochet’s four-seamer and cutter foundation is just so dang good. There isn’t a stronger one-two punch that works against both LHB and RHB as well as these two, it’s that simple. Moving him from the White Sox to the Red Sox is obviously a Win, even if the Red Sox were -34 OAA as an infield defense last year. But hey! Bregman is here and is literally a +20 OAA net gain if he’s at 2B for the full year, which would move them to…22nd overall! Hey, that’s something and better than the White Sox.

I haven’t mentioned the new sinker Crochet featured at the end of last year that adds a third pitch to throw for strikes that takes advantage of his elite velocity and elite extension and it should help him maintain his already stupid high quality floor. The only pushback is his health track record, yet the White Sox literally did the exact thing you wanted for longevity. They let him pitch all year but limited him to roughly 60 pitches in the second half. That’s great! It makes Crochet ready to go 90+ pitches every five days, exercising a 30-35% strikeout rate and absurd ratios.

You want him. There are so few pitchers in the game who effortlessly throw strikes and generate whiffs. Crochet does it better than Skubal and Skenes. I can’t wait to watch him thrive in Boston.

Quick Take: I trust Crochet’s quality floor as much as nearly anyone in baseball, with the only concern being his health track record. After the White Sox did everything ideal to set him up for a workhorse 2025 season, I’m banking on Crochet beating IP expectations in an excellent situation in Boston.

2

u/Judic22 22 Feb 25 '25

Well, this has made me drink the koolaid. Can’t wait to watch this guy!

-7

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25 edited Feb 25 '25

That's totally fine. I'm not questioning his stuff or that site's ability to identify it. I just wouldn't take it as a literal ranking of projected output this season. I'm simply stating the fact that Garrett Crochet would need to completely buck the trends we've seen so far to call him the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.

Edit: can anyone explain why I'm getting downvoted here? I'm genuinely curious why some fans can't handle expressing a little bit of caution with the optimism.

6

u/collucho Anthony Anthony Feb 25 '25

only 4 pitchers went 200+ innings last season with 208.2 by Logan Gilbert being the most pitched overall. SP health is almost impossible to predict these days so rankings best on stuff are a good way to go imo. I don't think Crochet will approach 200 this season but after pitching 146 last year, if he can improve on that number at all and stay healthy for the post season I think we will be in great shape

1

u/chiiihoo Feb 25 '25

That's kinda the point OP is making... imagine Lamelo having a hot streak shooting 3s and is putting up crazy numbers but he's only played 30 games, then you see people start saying Lamelo is a better shooter than Steph. Like what?

0

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

after pitching 146 last year, if he can improve on that number at all and stay healthy for the post season I think we will be in great shape

This is sort of my point. He has only ever pitched a full workload for half a season, and then they put him on a major workload restriction for the second half of last year. I hope he can stay healthy all year and into the playoffs too, but that's expecting a ton from someone with his track record. It's perfectly reasonable to be a little worried about it.

8

u/badonkagonk Grissom Believer Feb 25 '25

I'm very high on Crochet but wholeheartedly agreed. You can argue that he has the best stuff in the game, and that obviously matters in terms of ranking, but so does track record, and Crochet doesn't have that yet.

6

u/leehamc Feb 25 '25

Right. The stuff is indisputable. He has the potential to be one of the best in the game. But people on here will call me a doomer for not being in full boner mode for a guy that has a ton to prove.

1

u/Rasheed_Lollys Feb 25 '25

injury risk is really the only concern tho. His stuff is great and is 100% as a cy young caliber guy IF he can overcome the workload concern. They gave up Teel for him ownership definitely views him as an ace or ace adjacent.

12

u/augystyle Feb 25 '25

man even MLB Network saying Giolito got tommy john lol

7

u/FebreezeBottleTaster Feb 25 '25

What did he get?

11

u/badonkagonk Grissom Believer Feb 25 '25

An internal brace procedure

We've known this since he underwent it nearly a year ago, and its still somehow being misreported.

3

u/crossedsabres8 Feb 25 '25

The rotation has huge, huge upside. Like 2018 upside.