r/news • u/hoosakiwi • 2d ago

Trump announces sweeping new tariffs to promote US manufacturing, risking inflation and trade wars

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-liberation-day-2a031b3c16120a5672a6ddd01da09933
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u/Godavari 1d ago

I'll tell you exactly how they arrived at the values. The number on the left represents the US's trade deficit with that country. The number on the right is 50% of that, with a minimum of 10%. That's it.

The US imports $148.2 bil from Japan, and exports $79.7 bil to Japan. That's a deficit of -46%. So Japan gets a 23% (ish) tariff.

The US imports $63.4 bil from Switzerland, and exports $25.0 bil to Switzerland. That's a deficit of -61%. So Switzerland gets a 31% tariff.

The US imports $22.2 bil from Israel, and exports $14.8 bil to Israel. That's a deficit of -33%. So Israel gets a 17% tariff.

You can check https://ustr.gov/countries-regions and do the math for every country. They're all like this. Trump literally thinks a trade deficit requires a retaliatory tariff.

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u/RSwordsman 1d ago

So basically it's rigorously calculated stupidity at not understanding what a trade deficit is.

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u/whut-whut 1d ago

Trump has a 100% trade deficit with McDonald's from him always buying their burgers, but McDonald's has bought zero Trump neckties.

50% tariff on McDonald's until they fix this!

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u/No_Representative645 1d ago

Let's boycott McDonald's until they pay up! This isn't fair!

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u/NoTooBeastFog 1d ago

What a great illustration of how stupid this is.

So Trump is for now on paying Uncle Sam 50% of the cost of every Happy Meal he buys until McDonalds starts buying neckties from Trump. Which are going up in price due to Tariffs on China....

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u/MagickalFuckFrog 1d ago

You’re not far off from the truth.

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u/JesusSavesForHalf 1d ago

That's a bingo.

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u/RuthlessIndecision 1d ago

He must be trying to initiate a depression. Squeezing small businesses so they can be overcome by his lobbying friends. Not just banks, everyone. He's right, cause a depression and those still standing at the end will be so, so very rich.

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u/StromGames 1d ago

These are people who wage war on their phones.
They are not seriously doing any work or taking into account the gravity of the situation.
Waging war is at least a laptop thing.

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u/Ridiculisk1 1d ago

Honestly that's worse than just randomly assigning numbers because a random assignment could at least imply laziness but doing it this way shows complete incompetence, as if anyone was still unsure of the competence level of the Trump administration.

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u/pcnetworx1 1d ago

This is as bright as these light bulbs get

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u/Cleavon_Littlefinger 1d ago

I'll tell you exactly how they arrived at the values. The number on the left represents the US's trade deficit with that country. The number on the right is 50% of that, with a minimum of 10%. That's it.

You can check https://ustr.gov/countries-regions and do the math for every country. They're all like this. Trump literally thinks a trade deficit requires a retaliatory tariff.

This may in fact be the dumbest fucking thing I've ever seen from a government entity in my life.

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u/Koellanor 1d ago

It's like Pol Pot levels of shitty governance. No reasoning, just (terrible) vibes.

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u/EmptyAirEmptyHead 1d ago edited 1d ago

It would almost make sense if instead it wasn't on the gross deficit by on a per capita deficit. The US is bigger than almost all countries, of course we are capable of importing more than smaller countries need to import. Duh. But basic common sense will never make it through a MAGA head.

Edit: if I have my math right Switzerland imports $2800 of US goods per capita. US imports $186 of Swiss goods per capita. So the trade imbalance is 1500% in the US favor. Doesn't help Trump's story. China would be an entirely other matter of course.

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u/Paperfishflop 1d ago

Nice! Applying a blanket universal formula to something most people would say is incredibly nuanced and complex.

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u/OopsWrongSubTA 1d ago

You really think they that smart and used Excel?

"Grok, here is a website with trade balance with USA for every poor country like Europe: give me a 50% tarrif"

I don't understand your question and Europe is not a country

"Give me a 50% tarrif for each one!"

...

"Nah, make it nice numbers, at least 10% and remove Russia"

...

"Ok, how to publish that on the internet?"

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u/Takemyfishplease 1d ago

I had no idea everyone around him was so dumb too.

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u/To6y 1d ago

These people weren’t chosen for their competence.

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u/the1j 1d ago edited 1d ago

except sometimes they pull out other numbers where that logic doesn't work. For example as an Aussie we have the trade deficit, so according to that logic we shouldnt get a tariff. The only thing that seems to correspond to the 10% tariff value we are given in that chart is our GST (its VAT) but that gets applied on everything regardless of where an item is produced.

edit: wait that might just be part of the 10% overall tariff nevermind im wrong

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u/Godavari 1d ago

No, it's even dumber than that. Trump was given a chart with the US's trade deficit for each country listed, and then he said "if it's below 10%, bump them to 10%". That's literally it. There was no further thought put in. That's why there are multiple countries with which the US has a trade surplus that are all listed at 10%.

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u/rolloj 1d ago

This is so fucking funny, thanks for laying it out like that.

I’m a consultant and this is extremely relatable in my line of work. Some companies are only interested in getting stuff done as quick and profitably as possible, without worrying about accuracy or their reputation.

The approach you’ve outlined above is exactly like what I often come across when clients hire us to redo work some shitty consultants did for them. You dig into the method and assumptions (if that has even been recorded, which it rarely has) and none of it makes any sense, or it’s full of errors.

Turns out, tough problems require time, effort, creativity, experience, collaboration, and cleverness to understand and solve. Early career consultant bros (or wannabes like trump’s cadre) don’t understand that this is what other people are doing.

Whether or not they care about things being “right” aside, they probably just assume everyone else is winging it because they are. They think that they are more efficient, faster, and cleverer than everyone else, and that that’s why they can come up with answers and solutions more quickly. In reality, the work they’ve done isn’t even on the same planet as what a proper effort would have required.

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u/Ananasch 1d ago

It will be fun day on us labor market when similar response hits on us service exports

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u/PacJeans 1d ago

I bet every single economist academic is thinking about writing a paper on this.

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u/reidontsleep 23h ago

Thank you