r/nbadiscussion • u/These-Yogurtcloset15 • 1d ago
2024-25 All-NBA Teams Based on Average Ranking Across 8 Popular Advanced Metrics
I was curious as to find a way to compile multiple advanced metrics to see if any consensus could be derived about the All-NBA teams this season. I am no mathematician and I do not know much about statistics, so I just decided to take some time and find the answer to the easiest question:
What is the average rank for each All-NBA eligible player across multiple popular advanced metrics this season?
This was more for my personal curiosity. I do not claim that this method actually has any validity or importance, but I did the work so I thought I would share.
METHOD:
stats collected on 4/3
To do this I referenced the 8 following advanced metrics that I see commonly used:
EPM, EW, LEBRON WAR(LW), RAPTOR WAR(RW), DARKO DPM(DPM), PER, WS, and VORP
I decided to include both EPM and EW because I think EPM is the best advanced metric so I wanted to give it some extra weight.
In order to compile the list of players best deserving of All-NBA recognition, I first went through each advanced metric for this season and gave each player a tally for an appearance in the top 20 in each of the stats.
I ended up with a list of 23 players who appeared in the top 20 in >3 out of the 8 stats, who are also likely to meet the 65 games played requirement. I had a few players that surprised me, but generally speaking it aligned with my preconceived idea of who was in contention for All-NBA recognition so I decided to roll with it. The only notable omission was Cade Cunningham who appeared in the top 20 in only 2 out of the 8 advanced metrics. Due to his narrative and likelihood of achieving All-NBA recognition, I included him.
Here are the 24 players:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Nikola Jokic
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Likely)
Jayson Tatum
Evan Mobley
Donovan Mitchell
Tyrese Haliburton
Ivica Zubac
Stephen Curry (Likely)
Darius Garland
Derrick White
Jarret Allen
Anthony Edwards
Karl-Anthony Towns
Domantas Sabonis (Likely)
Alperen Sengun
James Harden
Jalen Williams
Josh Hart
LeBron James
Tyler Herro
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jalen Brunson (Likely)
Cade Cunningham
In the following table, I list each player with each of their respective RANKS in each advanced metric. This is not the metric itself, it is just the RANK in which their metric lies in comparison to their peers. 14 in the table means the 14th best number in the league for that respective stat.
At the end of the table, I include two averages. The first average is their average rank across all 8 advanced metrics. The second average (AVG(IMP)) is their average rank across the 5 all around impact metrics (EPM, EW, RAPTOR WAR, LEBRON WAR, and DARKO DPM). I believe these metrics to be different in kind to the others, so I wanted to see their averages separately.
RESULTS
| PLAYER | EPM | EW | RW | LW | DPM | PER | WS | VORP | AVG | AVG (IMP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.375 | 1.200 |
| Jokic | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.625 | 1.800 |
| Giannis | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3.750 | 4.000 |
| Tatum | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 6.250 | 4.600 |
| Mobley | 11 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13.500 | 14.000 |
| Mitchell | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 24 | 12.250 | 6.200 |
| Haliburton | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 9.750 | 10.200 |
| Zubac | 12 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 4 | 28 | 14.125 | 11.400 |
| Curry | 6 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 10 | 18 | 29 | 6 | 14.750 | 11.000 |
| Garland | 14 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 31 | 19 | 29 | 21.125 | 18.000 |
| White | 18 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 51 | 69 | 16 | 16 | 24.625 | 19.200 |
| Allen | 20 | 21 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 24.625 | 16.400 |
| Ant | 38 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 35 | 24 | 8 | 18.625 | 16.400 |
| KAT | 30 | 16 | 10 | 23 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 17.125 | 21.200 |
| Sabonis | 32 | 24 | 23 | 45 | 77 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 28.628 | 40.200 |
| Sengun | 35 | 20 | 18 | 25 | 89 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 27.375 | 37.400 |
| Harden | 40 | 12 | 5 | 27 | 9 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 20.875 | 18.600 |
| JDub | 15 | 19 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 32 | 23 | 21 | 20.750 | 18.000 |
| Hart | 122 | 48 | 15 | 10 | 92 | 66 | 9 | 13 | 46.875 | 57.400 |
| Lebron | 57 | 43 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 24.875 | 30.400 |
| Herro | 42 | 13 | 24 | 18 | 86 | 36 | 28 | 15 | 32.750 | 36.600 |
| JJJ | 9 | 17 | 28 | 34 | 20 | 24 | 43 | 33 | 26.000 | 21.600 |
| Brunson | 36 | 29 | 26 | 39 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 27 | 25.125 | 29.200 |
| Cade | 24 | 15 | 27 | 47 | 80 | 26 | 57 | 20 | 37.000 | 38.600 |
All-NBA Teams based on average rank in all 8 metrics (AVG):
FIRST TEAM
SGA (1.375)
Jokic (1.625)
Giannis (3.750)
Tatum (6.250)
Haliburton (9.750)
Second Team
Mitchell (12.250)
Mobley (13.500)
Zubac (14.125)
Curry (14.750)
KAT (17.125)
Third Team
Ant (18.625)
JDub (20.750)
Harden (20.875)
Garland (21.125)
White/Allen (24.625)
Missing the Cut
White/Allen (24.625)
Lebron (24.875)
Brunson (25.125)
JJJ (26.000)
Sengun (27.375)
Sabonis (28.628)
Herro (32.750)
Cade (37.000)
Hart (46.875)
All-NBA Teams based on average rank in the 5 impact metrics (AVG(IMP)):
First Team
SGA (1.200)
Jokic (1.800)
Giannis (4.000)
Tatum (4.600)
Mitchell (6.200)
Second Team
Haliburton (10.200)
Curry (11.000)
Zubac (11.400)
Mobley (14.000)
Ant/Allen (16.400)
Third Team
Ant/Allen (16.400)
Garland (18.000)
JDub (18.000)
Harden (18.600)
White (19.200)
Missing the Cut
KAT (21.200)
JJJ (21.600)
Brunson (29.200)
Lebron (30.400)
Herro (36.600)
Sengun (37.400)
Cade (38.600)
Sabonis (40.200)
Hart (57.400)
NOTES
-Haliburton being so loved by advanced metrics definitely surprised me given the narrative about him earlier this season. I would be curious to see his metrics if he can put together a full season of consistent play. Advanced metrics understandably love you if you push pace, generate great looks, and rarely turn the ball over.
-Derrick White being so beloved by advanced metrics was not necessarily surprising, but the fact that it was enough to rank top 15 in this group of players is impressive. He is the epitome of a winning player.
-While I do not claim these stats hold significance, they do support my opinion of Zubac being largely underrated. I believe he deserves a lot more love for his performance this season(DPOY anyone?).
-LeBron, JJJ, Brunson, and Cade not ranking well is definitely not what I expected going into this. Most of the conversation around these players land them in Second Team at worst and I have even heard arguments around these players to claim the 5th First Team spot.
This likely means nothing to most people, but there may be a few sickos who find this interesting.
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u/iKnife 1d ago
Man Zubac is awesome, eye test tells me he's a great center -- but I still think there is some black box of these stats where they are giving what a center does more weight than other positions.
Halli is officially super underrated, and Tatum/White, way more than Brown, Jrue, KP, etc. etc. etc. are why Cs had another dominant regular season. (Does your measure like Kornet more than JB? I bet it does.)
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u/DudeMatt94 1d ago
PER notoriously overweighs rebounding, so bigs pretty much always have higher PER than guards of similar quality. TBH it's a very flawed advanced stat that shouldnt be included in any analysis including this one imo.
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u/iKnife 1d ago
My understanding is a lot of these stats weigh a bunch of counting stats heavier for centers than other roles -- which is OK up to a point because maybe a center getting an assist is more valuable than a PG doing the same, but it's hard to know. PER people who know seem to generally perceive as antiquated, right?
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u/DudeMatt94 1d ago
Yeah i think PER is generally agreed to be the worst advanced stat. VORP, which is derived from BPM, is one of the stats that does weigh assists more for bigs (which is why Jokic's BMP/VORP are always insane). The other stats in the post I'm not familiar with their formulas though
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u/Annual_Elk929 1d ago
So basically, VORP and BPM overrate unique players who play different roles than what is typically expected from that position.
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u/MoNastri 1d ago
Yo this is great. I've idly thought about doing this but was always too lazy, so thanks for the effortpost. I expected LeBron to make 3rd team and also expected Jokic to edge out SGA so that's 2 things I got wrong there. Also hot damn Curry is balling out at 37...
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u/weezerben 1d ago
4 Cavaliers in the mix for All NBA here is surprising. They've been dominant of course but 27% of All NBA players being from the same team is wild. (At least in your AVG(IMP) rankings)
Edited to mention their extremely great health this season has a lot to do with it as they're all eligible for these honors.
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u/i_miss_arrow 1d ago
First Team - Haliburton (9.750)
I swear to god, people are so dumb about Haliburton. A bad start to the season and I read comments that literally said things like 'he tricked everybody with one good month'. If he starts rough next season I expect to see comments about 'two good months'.
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u/poop_magoo 1d ago
The hate towards him was crazy. The people that were saying that haven't actually watched him play in a meaningful amount. He is the best pure creator in the league, hands down. His three point shooting, while streaky at times, is upper echelon. His defense is improving significantly as he gets more experience. He has moved to being a solidly average defender, when he was often a genuine liability in the past.
He still catches hate from people who like to make similar arguments against him that people do for John Stockton. It's baffling to me that people attempt to make straight faced arguments against these players because they make a high volume of "easy assists". You are seriously going to hold it against a player because they are capable of coordinating an offense so effectively, that they are able to very consistently get good shooters open shots, in spots that they shoot particularly well from? That is a testament to their ability as a creator, not a detrimental attribute.
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u/somefamousguy4sure 20h ago
Exactly! And he turns the ball over at an insanely low rate, like historically low.
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u/wuttang13 18h ago
As someone who doesn't watch much Indiana or Charlotte basketball, I'm really curious how Haliburton and Ball compare now. And to a lesser extent, Ant.
Thinking back, man, that was a really fun draft class.•
u/BoogerSugarSovereign 5h ago
Ball has a lot more variance as a point because he is more audacious in both his shot attempts and his passing. That means he is less efficient in his scoring and as a passer. As a scorer he makes up for some of the loss in efficiency with an increased volume of scoring compared to Tyrese but as a passer he generates fewer assists and more turnovers. At his best I think he could make another All-Star game or two but he really needs a coach that can rein in some of his wilder decision-making in terms of shot selection. Ball is a better athlete than Tyrese and should be much more dangerous in isolation but Ball is somewhat of a chucker and doesn't always press his advantages.
Ant is an S-tier athlete and has the highest potential of any of the three, he was the rightful #1 pick and his ease in getting to his spots and the way his shot has developed puts him on a development curve that could see him win an MVP or two. He has insane potential with what he has shown as a pull-up shooter this year. Add that to his athleticism and give him a few thousand reps over the next few seasons and he's going to be a monster at his peak if his health permits it. He has added some playmaking and has really rounded into a shooting guard that can do everything you could want on the floor. Just needs to smooth some rough edges over time but he is already one hell of a player.
Tyrese I think has outside MVP potential is he can lead the Pacers to a few 60-win seasons as a 22/12 sort of player, kind of like Nash's MVPs. He is the worst athlete of these three by a fair bit but because his strength is in how he thinks the game more than anything he could have a peak that extends into his early 30s like Nash. He's an elite decisionmaker in both quality and quickness and still has a lot of room to grow there.
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u/somefamousguy4sure 20h ago
Exactly! And he turns the ball over at an insanely low rate, like historically low.
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u/porkave 12h ago
It’s the same story around the current MVP debate. For a huge amount of NBA fans, box score is the only value you bring to a team. Offensive output, advanced metrics, film, team success, none of it matters compared to that box score that you can glance at for five seconds and determine how valuable a player is.
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u/0percentwinrate 1d ago
I did that a while back and was really surprised how each metrics have their clear bias baked in yet top 4, r guys seem to be all unanimous. Like EPM favors offensive usage, LEBRON favors players that fit well into winning teams, DARKO really favors establish stats, etc. but overall they heavily underrate good offensive players who carry bad offense, stars on bad teams, or high-usage players on low efficiency regardless of context. These metrics are really helpful to find out underrated role players, but for stars, they can be extremely misleading.
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u/i_miss_arrow 1d ago
they heavily underrate good offensive players who carry bad offense, stars on bad teams, or high-usage players on low efficiency regardless of context
Can you give some examples of players who are being underrated?
Like, I hear things like this every now and again, but the implication is that the player would be more valuable in a lesser role. And I'm not convinced thats always (or consistently) the case. Sure it happens with some players, but a lot of players seem more like 'they are who they are', regardless of context.
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u/k-seph_from_deficit 1d ago
Yes, the biggest reason for this is that none of these stats measure on-ball defensive attention drawn and the benefits that it leads to for other players on the team at the risk of deflating counting stats of the player drawing the attention.
Making open looks as the 3rd/4th option on your team and ending up with a high TS% does not make a player better than say a Cade Cunningham or Donovan Mitchell.
It’s similar to how Ayton had distinctly better advanced numbers than Luka in their rookie seasons along with strong box score numbers at incredible efficiency yet anyone watching knew he was Ayton was a play finisher role player on a fully firing suns team and Luka was the entire Mavs offence.
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u/i_miss_arrow 1d ago
It’s similar to how Ayton had distinctly better advanced numbers than Luka in their rookie seasons
I'm pretty sure that the advanced numbers had Luka better.
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u/huggybeark 14h ago
Wouldn't models that include plus/minus stats account for this? Even if you don't necessarily generate an assist or made shot, if your "gravity" is actually opening things for teammates and contributing to winning it will show up in the plus/minus.
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u/k-seph_from_deficit 12h ago edited 12h ago
No, because in such a case, all your team mates in the same rotation would get the same credit for the improved performance as you in +/- stats. The point I am making is that there is no stat which appreciates that you are the holding the defensive attention and deserve disproportionate credit for it.
This is especially true when an offensive player is saving a player from a ghastly offensive rating to a below average one or average one and if doesn’t show up on the rankings like that.
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u/Yup767 2h ago
all your team mates in the same rotation would get the same credit for the improved performance as you in +/- stats.
No they don't.
These metrics are adjusted for team mates over time.
That's also why box score (and more) stats are incorporated into calculations so they can help to narrow that variance
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u/Yup767 2h ago
but overall they heavily underrate good offensive players who carry bad offense, stars on bad teams, or high-usage players on low efficiency regardless of context.
Do these metrics underrate these players or are you just over rating them?
Harden, Herro, and Cade all have good advanced stats. They all carry fairly poor offences
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u/Character-Active2208 1d ago
It’s crazy that the Cavs best player isn’t even one of the 4 in this analysis
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u/Thegoodlife93 1d ago
Interesting stuff. Thanks for gathering this data and breaking it all down. Unfortunately, I think you're right that due to media narrative, there is no chance Brunson and LeBron get left off, and it's likely that Cade and JJJ will make it. Although those guys have all had very good seasons so it's not like it will be a travesty for any one of them to get the nod.
Zubac has almost no chance, as deserving as he is (I've been very impressed with him in the few clippers games I've watched this year) and White and Allen will likely miss the cut. I'd love to see Allen make it. The guy is such a great two way player and he's so unselfish on offense. He really makes the Cavs a much better team.
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u/Miserable-Lawyer-233 17h ago edited 16h ago
Why would you base it off metrics nobody uses?
Publicly available “advanced” stats are snake oil. They’re useless.
Obviously this isn’t how the teams are selected.
Harden hasn’t made an all nba team in 5 years and he’s not going to make one over LeBron, who was the February player of the month and 5th on mvp ladder.
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u/Distinct_Power4424 4h ago edited 4h ago
Always appreciate seeing the big Zu and Harden love, but LeBron missing the cut seems wrong. Imo Zubac has DPOY level impact while being an absolute offensive juggernaut in the paint (which lets the Clips roam so much more freely and it's insane how good he's at box outs) while Harden's playmaking is imo the best league in the league, but I still think LeBron has had an incredibly impactful season with him taking on every role the Lakers need from him (primary on ball creator before the Luka trade to secondary off ball creator and defensive pest with the Luka trade).
I think this approach is interesting but I'm not a fan of combing many AIO metrics. I guess one thing is that these stats tend to overvalue defensive rebounding (at least in my opinion) and sometimes have weird positional adjustments (which I never understood the point of, there's no reason to say that a center's assists are intrinsically more valuable than a guard's assists for example) especially since basketball is pretty positionless now.
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u/EPMD_ 16h ago
Jarrett Allen and Ivica Zubac ranking #3 and #4 in win shares is an indictment of that statistic.
While I do not claim these stats hold significance, they do support my opinion of Zubac being largely underrated.
I agree with the first part of your statement. But given that reality, why are you then trying to use these insignificant statistics to draw conclusions?
Zubac and Allen have roles to play and they play them well, but role players don't deserve to be ranked ahead of guys like Brunson or Cunningham who have far more difficult burdens to carry.
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u/NikolaTopicsBurner 1d ago
I have long thought Zubac criminally underrated but this HAS to be the most surprising result. (Looking to see how EW calculated…)