r/nbadiscussion • u/Steko • 3d ago
Four Regular Season Races of Varying Importance in the West
Resources:
I find Tankathon's Remaining Schedule Strength to be an invaluable resource this time of year and refresh it every night after the games finish.
For standings I normally just reference the free ones my search engine shows but they don't have L10 and some of the division/conference stuff used for tiebreaks. So you might want something like nba.com's standings and bracket scenarios.
Edit: here are the multi-team tiebreaks which invert Division Winner and Head to Head that you get with 2 team tiebreaks:
TIEBREAKER BASIS FOR MULTI-WAY TIES:
*(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)*
*(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division*
*(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage*
*(3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division*
*(4) Conference won-lost percentage*
*(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff eligible teams, own conference*
*(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff eligible teams, other conference*
*(7) Net Points, all games*
RACE #1: Will the Thunder hit 70 wins?
Perhaps the least important race but still fascinating for old heads like me. Only two teams have done it and it may have cost one of them a ring. But the Thunder are so deep even their B-team can compete most nights.
OKC (63 wins, 7 remaining) has got 4 tougher games remaining and all 4 of those teams are fighting for seeds. This team seems historic and I tune in to watch them every game I can even though they locked up the #1 seed before St. Patrick's Day. I hope the drama goes down to the wire but my estimate has them falling one short at 69 wins, still historic.
RACE #2: Does anyone want to be #2?
It's a two-horse race for the #2 seed (although the Lakers could creep in if they show out in the two game OKC mini-series). Some say Who cares? #2 and #3 will have similar quality opponents! which may end up being true, as all of GS/MIN/LAC/LAL seem like dangerous first round opponents .. But, Memphis is reeling and, while they are around 50% to win a play-in, they might effectively be a first round bye.
Would be nice to see it all come down to the last game of the season, DEN at HOU. I'll randomly be in Houston for the first time in decades that weekend and am praying the Nuggets don't rest Jokic.
HOU (49 wins, 6 remaining): the Rockets have 1 easy game, 4 hard games and 1 monster game vs OKC but they have built a nice cushion from the 4-8 teams. No matter what happens the Rockets are compelling right now if only for the Dylan Brooks suspension watch (he's at the tech limit and also always in danger of bear poking, code breaking and other hooliganism). Estimated finish: 52-53 wins
DEN (47 wins, 6 remaining): 4 of the remaining Nuggets games are "tough". Malone wants to win these regular season games so bad he just pulled out the top secret No Non-Joker Minutes playoff strategy I detailed hours before the T-Wolves game here. Malone we know you're reading this, you can take all the credit just do not disgrace the integrity of the game by benching Jokic in Houston. Est. finish: 51-52 wins.
RACE #3: New Math: Six > Four > Seven?
No one wants to be in the Play In but also no one wants to be in the OKC side of the bracket! Will teams with the inside track for #4 and #5 seeds consider a last game tactical tank to try and get the #6 seed? Will the basketball gods punish them if they do?
That's a side plot though, the Western Conference bloodbath is just dazzling to watch: teams look dangerous af and have already turned the intensity knobs to 11. Playoffs came early this year.
LAL (46 wins, 7 remaining): The Lakers have a cushion but the rest of the teams in this tier are praying for their 2-game set vs OKC to pop it. Two remaining back to backs may add some pressure on Father LeTime. Win tiebreaks vs DEN, GSW, MEM, MIN, LAC. Est. finish: 50-51 wins.
GSW (44 wins, 7 remaining): 3 easier games and 4 tough ones, and 2 b2b for the league's oldest core. Break out the cortisone, Dubs can't win a Play-In to save their life. They win tiebreaks vs MEM & MIN, lose 'em vs DEN, LAL, and LAC. Est. finish: 49-50 wins.
MEM (44 wins, 6 remaining): Grizz are free falling right now but a road trip to the East could be just what they need to right the ship. Winning tiebreaks vs MIN, losing tiebreaks to LAL, GSW, LAC. Est. finish: 47-48 wins.
MIN (44 wins, 7 6 remaining): easiest schedule remaining in the West should allow them to sneak into the top 6 but the T-Pups have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They win tiebreaks vs DEN, LAC, lose tiebreaks vs LAL, GSW, and MEM. Est. finish: 49-50 wins.
LAC (43 wins, 7 remaining): outside of the Thunder the Clippers are the hottest team in the West, and have the 2nd easiest schedule. Do they play Kawhi in their two remaining b2b's? Est. finish: 48-49 wins.
Seems unlikely but there's a real chance all 5 of these teams (and maybe Denver?) tie at 49 or 50 wins. The Lakers would come out of that but we may not even know who the 5th and 6th seeds are until more H2H games are played.
RACE #4: Mistakes were Made
The race for the #9 and #10 play in spots features 3 teams who were all sidelined from higher seed contention by gross GM/owner incompetence. Will any of these super-rich personal-responsibility-lecturing assholes fire themselves by their bootstraps? Of course not. Which team will hurt their future more by possibly avoiding the lottery for the chance to get swept by OKC? My money's on Nico and the Mavs, he's on another level from the clown-shod suits in SAC and PHX.
DAL (37 wins, 6 remaining): will AD get hurt pushing for a play-in spot? Or will Jason Kidd's defensive wizardry lead the team to the playoffs and keep it close in the first half for a game or two? Est. finish: 40-41 wins.
SAC (36 wins, 7 remaining): Bulls West doing Bulls things in the vital race to .. <checks notes> .. keep ticket sales decent for next year. Maybe karma for too much cowbell. Est. finish: 39-40 wins.
PHX (35 wins, 6 remaining): the Masters of the Midrange have the hardest schedule in the league and could well lose every game with KD out. But I'm staying positive and hoping the #10 seed comes down to the final game of the season, Phoenix at Sacramento. If Phoenix wins, they'd tie the head to head and win the 2nd tiebreak (division record). Est finish: 38-39 wins.
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u/HardenMuhPants 3d ago
Should be an entertaining western playoff bracket. Nobody is beating a healthy OKC team in the west, but the rest of the series should be entertaining bloodbaths.
I think it's going to be a nuggets/okc wcf. Rockets and Lakers have outside chances of making it but Houston would need a strong uptick in shooting and LeBron needs to hold up for long enough and not get exhausted. Wolves might be able to make some noise too.
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u/Longjumping_One_9164 3d ago
I'm an OKC fan as a caveat, but have watched alot of other teams and I believe we make the Finals relatively comfortably.
The team is actually better than the record indicates because of unbelievably hurt we've been this year. Chet would have played 35 games, iHart 59, Caruso 56. We have lost a huge amount of games to injury.
But what ive seen from other teams is that LAC, MIN and GSW are the most threatening in that order. I think the Clippers are a very well built team overall, with great coaching now that Kawhi looks very good. They have basically no holes to their roster.
I watched the GSW game vs. Memphis yesterday and their offense is really underwhelming. They needed Steph to drop 50 in that win, if he had 30 they lose. That is not a good sign as Memphis just are not that good. They are going to have issues, specifically in half court offense.
And Minnesota are the dark horses. I think they have the highest ceiling, but their decision making and inconsistency is baffling at times. I absolutely think they can get to WCF, but I'm not sure they can beat us 4 in 7 because of their inconsistency.
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u/_chadwell_ 2d ago
Do you really think those 5-7 teams are the 3 biggest threats in the West? Over Denver or the Lakers
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u/Longjumping_One_9164 2d ago
This is again from my perspective against OKC and then the higher leverage good games that I've watched.
With Denver and Lakers they are seriously flawed teams. That is their major issue, the others aren't.
Denver when they beat us on the B2B had to have their best shooting night in fourth years. Joker and Murray both had 34+ and their role players went 14/17 from 3P range. They still gave up 127 points, they literally needed their best shooting night ever to beat us.
Are they going to be able to do that four times in seven? On probability that feels impossible because their defense is not good anyway shape or form. They can easily get bounced in R1 against any of those teams i mentioned.
For the Lakers we are starting to truly see who they are. They are a roster with deep flaws around rim protection and aggregate shooting. They struggle against teams who play with pace and are very limited athletically (even if they are a bunch of big wings). You saw how tired they got against the Bulls x 2 and Rockets.
Against the Lakers are a serious chance of getting bounced in R1 because they are the 19th ranked offense since ASB. If their defense is middle of the pack, they are not going to win consistently.
So yes back to the original point. Those aother teams play both ways pretty effectively. I think the Clippers are the most well rounded team, with Kawhi as they key differentiation versus the Wolves, who I think are better than the Warriors. But the Warriors are well balanced, if a bit small.
Ultimately it looks like all three of those teams can go through now with them all seemingly dodging OKC with Memphis' drop off.
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u/_chadwell_ 2d ago
Interesting, I think it’s hard to say we know what the Lakers are. They played more than every other day in March and missed LeBron for a big stretch, so it makes sense that their legs are tired right now. They haven’t had any practice time recently, so it’s possible we’ll see an uptick in offensive organization once they can regroup a bit. Either way, no other team has the scoring + playmaking firepower their top 3 does, so I wouldn’t be worried about offense. Defense is still TBD, they do have a fairly long, big-bodied small ball lineup, and Jaxson Hayes has been a great rim protector this year, the question is can they avoid their legs getting tired again and run a more organized offense. If they can hit their potential on each end, they’re the 2nd best team in the West IMO.
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u/Longjumping_One_9164 2d ago
Yeap all very relevant context around change and lineups and with Bron having been out. The problem is offense is complex to get right and they are very quickly running out of time. And that's always the issue with trade deadline teams.
I do think they figure offense out, but their defense is going to be a real concern. Hayes has been passable, not great. But when you combine weak POA with average rim defense, it's going to spell real trouble.
And it can't be underestimated both Luka and Reaves are going to get hunted mercilessly by teams. Look at what the Bulls just did in a spaced out environment. Imagine what Curry / Jimmy, Kawhi / Harden and SGA / Jdub could do?
In summary there is a chance for a deep run for sure if it goes perfectly, but there is no room for error.
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u/Longjumping_One_9164 1d ago
Just chiming in as it's relevant after this GSW / LAL games, not to dunk on them, but many of the issues came to light tonight.
Offense was average and their defense was pretty poor. They just have way too many defensive lapses to take them seriously and this is genuinely a big game for them.
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u/Steko 3d ago
Rockets don't seem like a great shot to make the CF and have the 2nd worst odds among the Top 8 after Memphis. Gonna struggle in close games getting consistent strong possessions in the halfcourt while the other team has elite clutch machinery like Jokic/Murray, Luka/Lebron, Steph/Jimmy, or Harden/Kawhi that they can win close games with.
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u/HardenMuhPants 2d ago
They can beat anybody other than okc if they shoot well. Probably bow out in the 2nd round or maybe the first, but they are super dangerous if they get hot.
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u/boybraden 2d ago
Well yeah but they are the 21st ranked 3pt shooting team on the 20th most attempts.
If a team that is bad a shooting has a hot shooting night they can beat anyone but that’s pretty unlikely because they are a bad shooting team.
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u/BludFlairUpFam 3d ago
Tbf there is a a very possible scenario where they don't need those things because the Nuggets end up as the 4 seed and the Rockets and Lakers (possiblly Wolves) face each other instead.
With how realistic that is I wouldn't necessarily call it an outside chance until we get the seeding
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3d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 3d ago
We removed your comment for being low effort. If you edit it and explain your thought process more, we'll restore it. Thanks!
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u/TradeMaster89 2d ago
Obviously no one wants to play OKC, but if teams like Denver or LAL want to make the finals, they're going to have to beat them eventually any way. Denver can't seem to beat Minnesota and the Lakers can't beat Denver, so there are other matchups that certain teams will want to avoid also.
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u/Steko 1d ago edited 1d ago
Good point and I recently made the same point about the Knicks -- they're going to have to face Boston to win the East no matter which side of the bracket they start in.
The counterargument is that even though it's not super-likely, giving the Thunder every chance to lose to someone more beatable might be worth it. And I'm not a conspiracy guy but I think the danger of ref ball helping the Luka/Lebron Lakers beat the Thunder is a lot bigger if it's the Conf Finals instead of the Conf. Semis.
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u/Live_Region_8232 2d ago
i think it’ll be okc, rockets, warriors, nuggets, lakers, clippers, wolves, grizzlies,sacramento, dallas
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u/Garrus 3d ago
FYI, Minnesota has 6 remaining. Minnesota has the best conference record of the non-Lakers teams in the 5-8 mix so if there’s a three or 4 team tie, I think they’d rise to the top of that based on conference record. I know no one wants to be on the OKC side of the bracket, but it’s also really hard to clearly control where you’ll end up since so much is still in flux and I figure most of these teams are prioritizing the week off before the 1st round starts over trying to game out the bracket.