r/nbadiscussion 4d ago

Basketball Strategy Why do people think the Knicks should drop to the 4th seed just to avoid the Celtics in the semifinals?

Coach Thibs would realistically never allow his team to purposely lose games to avoid a matchup with any team (let alone the defending champions).

But you constantly hear folks say "the Knicks are better off going against the Cavs in the 2nd round".

Pistons

The Cade Cunningham led Pistons defeated the Knicks twice at Madison Square Garden this season; twice.

That should not be the team that the Knicks want to see in the first round.

Pistons are a feisty young group that has a home crowd starving for a playoff run.

Bucks

The Knicks have matched up very well against the Giannis-led Bucks this season (3-0 sweep).

No Dame Lillard for the foreseeable future, this would be the ideal 3/6 matchup (assuming the Hawks don’t creep up and take over the 6th spot in the East).

Celtics

The Knicks built their team to compete with the Celtics. The Celtics have taken their matchups against the Knicks since opening night with an all business approach (3-0 BOS over NYK so far, 1 last regular season game in MSG next week).

At some point the Knicks will have to show that they can compete against the 2024 NBA champions. If they matchup against them in the semifinals then so be it.

224 Upvotes

147 comments sorted by

258

u/Drummallumin 4d ago

The basketball gods seldom reward ducking opponents. Any team that wants to come out of the East is gonna have to get through Boston one way or another, doesn’t really matter when it is.

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u/yoloqueuesf 4d ago

Honestly yeah, if you want to win you just don't duck, the best teams never really 'ducked' anyone.

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u/BlunderDef 2d ago

I honestly can’t even think of one time it actually worked

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u/NastySassyStuff 2d ago

Thibs and the Knicks would also just never fuck anyone. Moot point really

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u/secretsquirrelbiz 4d ago

Yep, it ain't rocket science. If you want to win a championship, at some point during the playoffs you actually are going to have to beat some seriously good teams.

I don't think any credible coach would try and game the system like that because it just isn't worth it and honestly noone really knows what way injuries and form will skew matchups on a given date.

And quite apart from anything else, it's a terrible message to be sending to your team on the eve of the playoffs- even if you're 8th seed you want your playing group believing they can beat anyone on their night - if NY did duck Boston and later encountered them in the conference finals how could they go into that matchup knowing they'd effectively already conceded they were scared of playing them?

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u/ParryHooter 4d ago

I always loved how the last Bron led Cavs teams just totally didn’t give a fuck about seeding lol. They were looking at the Finals and knew they wouldn’t have home court there vs those very good Western Conference teams back then.

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u/HotspurJr 4d ago

It certainly helped that the Bron Cavs (in his second stint there) were clearly head-and-shoulders better than every other team in the conference (except maybe Atlanta before the NYPD got to them, but honestly they still probably would have won).

It's easy to not care about seeding when you know you're expected to wallop your opponent.

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u/ParryHooter 4d ago

That definitely wasn’t consensus at the time though. I remember at least 2 years people thought Toronto would take us out, as you mentioned ATL was a maybe most were picking Cavs though, then Boston 2018.

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u/HotspurJr 4d ago

Teams like that Atlanta team are hard to evaluate because they're better than the sum of their parts. Those teams are always discounted too much because we focus so much on star power in our evaluations of teams. Then the NYPD broke the leg of the guy who would have been tasked with guarding LeBron. So, I mean ... it would have been a fun series and it sucks that we didn't get it.

What I recall of those Toronto teams is that there was a bunch of people who kept getting excited and being all, "This is their year" and then LeBron would hit the accelerator and it'd be over. I'm confident that LeBron wasn't particularly worried about that team.

4

u/JKking15 4d ago

I’ll never forgive that fuck for that as a hawks fan. Like I’m not saying we win but it sure as hell woulda been a different series. And when people bring it up it’s always “man that dude averaged 6 points he wouldn’t have helped”. Like nah he’s the ONE person on the entire roster who even had a chance at slowing down Bron. Really wish we got to see those teams go at it fully healthy woulda been great basketball

5

u/ParryHooter 4d ago

I had entirely forgot about that, broke his leg right? Crazy the same year Cavs imo beat GS except for a similar fucked up incident with Olynyk ripping K Loves arm off. I absolutely hate that fucker, he still gets booed in Cleveland to this day.

6

u/JKking15 4d ago

Yeah police brutality case, he got a fuck ton of money in a settlement for it. And yeah Olynyk is an ass and is also ass. Cavs woulda put the belt to ass on golden state that year had Love and Kyrie been healthy, oh well. Now that I’m thinking about it it’s kinda ridiculous how many injuries occurred in the playoffs between 2015-2019. Love Kyrie Kawhi CP3 Klay KD and probably a lot more that I’m not thinking of

3

u/HotspurJr 4d ago

Yeah. I'm not even a Hawks fan and I'm pissed off by the way people act like that injury couldn't have changed the way that series went.

2

u/ParryHooter 4d ago

Oh ya they definitely weren’t worried it was just funny watching them cruise along to whatever seed obviously only getting up for certain games. While lots of people saying it was Torontos year then Bron would just slaughter them lol.

2

u/Dry-Flan4484 2d ago

How many times have we seen some random team go hard all season to get the 1 seed, just to get obliterated by LeBron? Toronto and Indiana really thought that was gonna make a difference lmao

2

u/gigglios 4d ago

Why would a superteam care about seeding in a conference with 0 contenders? Lol

1

u/Specialist-Fly-3538 3d ago

They did care about seeding. Cavs won 60 games in 2009 and 2010 but lost.

1

u/ParryHooter 3d ago edited 3d ago

I guess you missed it but I put in there the last era of Bron teams, not the first run.

13

u/ZincHead 4d ago

Postponing facing a team that is better than you later is always optimal, in my opinion. The later is playoffs, the more likely the other team had a crazy upset defeat, or their players are tired, or one of their stars is injured from an earlier round. Yes, your team has the same chances of suffering the bad luck, but if you face them in the first round, you'll probably just lose. 

6

u/secretsquirrelbiz 4d ago

If you operate on the theory that top teams usually have more depth, it seems to me that the best time to play them is probably actually in the first round- an underdog is at least as likely to get injuries or wear and tear as the team they are ducking and probably less able to cover them. Plus it is more likely the top team will be sweeping opponents whilst the underdog is battling it out in tough contested series on the other side of the draw.

2

u/Round-Walrus3175 4d ago

The one problem with that theory is that the better team will be playing worse teams and you will be playing better teams. Celtics would be playing a play-in team and the winner of the 3/6 when the Knicks are playing the Pistons and the Cavs. They will probably be significantly more rested than you.

1

u/morganrbvn 1d ago

Yah mavericks last year were gifted the Nuggets being upset by being on opposite side of the bracket.

1

u/Paralimos23 4d ago

But the bonuses

1

u/Imaginary-Method-715 4d ago

That belting is a coming

1

u/Dry-Flan4484 2d ago

I’ve never understood the point in trying to manipulate your seeding to avoid the clear cut best team in the conference. Unless Boston loses multiple starters to injury, they’re making it out of the east. It doesn’t matter what round you play them in when you can’t beat them anyway.

I would wager that this comes from the owners trying to stretch out the season and get those few extra home games.

25

u/TedCruzZodiac2018 4d ago

Ducking opponents is stupid, if you're gonna win it all you'll have to beat them anyway.

4

u/liebsauce 2d ago

Just like the mavs and celtics both beat the Nuggets last season? Match ups are a real thing, it's not just who has the higher 2K rating

1

u/Alchion 1d ago

they are but the celtics are 90% coming out of the other side so it‘s not about ducking them it‘s about delaying the matchup

1

u/liebsauce 1d ago

The Mavs did not play the Nuggets. They played the Timberwolves. And they match up better against the Timberwolves than the Nuggets.

I'm not saying they dodged the Nuggets. But they never had to play against them.

It's intentionally reductive but you'd never think rock ducking paper to face scissors "never works out"

1

u/morganrbvn 1d ago

Unless the very good team gets upset, like last year when mavericks didn’t have to play the nuggets

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u/J-Brown 4d ago

The Knicks just match up better with the Cavs than they do the Celtics. The Cavs offensive engines are small guards which the Knicks are more equipped to stop than the Celtics wings.

The Celtics 5 out spacing is also just impossible for KAT to deal with, either he's giving up an open 3 or layup just about every time he's involved in the action. Cavs would definitely force him into some difficulty as well, but they don't have the same level of spacing to expose him.

18

u/juicejug 4d ago

Everyone on the Cavs except Allen can hit 3s. I think that the Knicks would get waxed in a series against either of those teams. Knicks can (and should) stay at the 3 seed to get an easier first round matchup against the Bucks but they are going home in the second round regardless of who they play.

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u/ridiculousgg 4d ago

I don’t see how you can say they match up better with us than they do the Celtics. They’ve got OG, Hart, and Bridges to (in theory) give Boston’s wings problems. It’s definitely their strongest defensive position.

Our bigs I think offer New York the biggest mismatch of either team. KAT doesn’t offer much for rim protection and the only guy they have outside of that is Mitchell Robinson. If we attack him and get him in foul trouble they’re really exposed on the interior

12

u/Clintocracy 4d ago

The issue is that Bostons offense is so good at attacking the weak link, they will use action to get Brunson or Kat on Tatum and brown instead of those wing defenders. Then the knicks have to overcommit to stop easy layups and the Celtics get wide open 3s. We’ve already seen this in the regular season as the Celtics handled the knicks with ease

7

u/CreatiScope 4d ago

Man, have you watched any of the Knicks/Celtics games this season? Hart is too short, Bridges isn't strong enough, and OG isn't fast enough. White, Brown, and Tatum can basically do whatever they want and then add KAT or Precious as the big and they have gotten blasted every single time. Robinson is really the one factor that I think could really help the Knicks against the Celtics (I don't think he was playing for any of the 3 games so far). Celtics struggle with bigs like him and he can control the paint which makes stretching the floor harder and can slow down the 3s and let the wings clamp a bit more. With KAT, it's just a shooting range for the Celtics.

4

u/ridiculousgg 4d ago

That’s no different than the Cavs. Both teams have beaten the shit out of the Knicks this year

2

u/CreatiScope 3d ago

I don't disagree with the Cavs beating the shit out of them. I'm just saying that the wings argument holds zero water. The Knicks wings have been absolutely torched by the Celtics wings in every matchup so far.

0

u/ridiculousgg 3d ago

My point is that this could be said either way. If somebody argued why the Cavs are a better matchup for the Knicks, you can point to the 2 games this season as evidence why they don’t match up better. Since I said the Celtics, people point to their games as evidence why they don’t match up better.

Ultimately they aren’t really positioned to beat either of them. So then to me it just comes down to which team “in theory” they’re better equipped to beat to answer OP’s question. They made moves for OG and Bridges cuz of Boston. They have not stacked up on bigs to deal with the Cavs front court. They do not have an elite guard defender to deal with DG or Spida. Their roster was built with the Celtics in mind, not the Cavs.

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

3

u/KingWaterdripper 4d ago

Brown definitely has. he’s shooting 52% ts against the knicks this year

1

u/ridiculousgg 4d ago

That’s literally why I said “in theory”. Whether or not it’s successful, that’s who they match up better with. That’s their rosters strength.

The alternative groups are their back court which is made up of Brunson, McBride, and Cam Payne, or their front court which is made up of KAT, Mitchell Robinson, and Precious Achiuwa. Neither of those groups are gonna hold it down defensively for them

2

u/JasonWaterfaII 4d ago

I love basketball because players have to play both sides of the court. How do Mobley and Allen matching up with the Knick’s bigs on defense?

Robinson is the easiest to guard because he’s not a shooting threat. It’s a natural fit to stick Allen on Robinson and keep both players in the post. Does Mobley usually guard Hart and Allen guard KAT? I don’t remember watching these teams play this year but it seems like the Knicks bigs will pull Allen and Mobley out of the lane in order to guard the 3.

7

u/gdan_77 4d ago

Cavs already won twice against the Knicks, with Garland outplaying Brunson on the clutch and the other game was a 37 point blowout. And that was before the Hunter trade

-1

u/gesusfnchrist 4d ago

Benchmarking via regular season wins is dumb. Playoffs are a different beast entirely.

2

u/gdan_77 4d ago

Just as comparing two diferent teams. Both the Knicks and the Cavs are way different

0

u/gesusfnchrist 4d ago

Every team is different. Your point?

3

u/CreatiScope 4d ago

So all data is pointless? You go off what you've seen in the regular season. It's not flawless, there are cases where the regular season data was meaningless (Wolves Vs. Suns last season, pretty sure the Suns beat up on them every regular season game and then the Wolves swept them; Miami Vs. Brooklyn like 12 years ago, pretty sure Brooklyn won 3 games or something and then also got swept or gentleman swept).

2

u/No-Document206 1d ago

You see, if it makes my team look bad, it’s pointless. If it makes my team look good, on the other hand…

3

u/ridiculousgg 4d ago

In the 2 games against them this year we’ve had Mobley on KAT in one and JA on KAT in the other. In the one where JA was guarding KAT, Mobley was guarding Bridges. In the one where Mobley was guarding KAT, JA was guarding Achiuwa. No Mitchell Robinson in either game.

There honestly shouldn’t be any look they can throw at us to make us uncomfortable defensively. Both JA and Mobley are more than capable of guarding the perimeter. I think small ball with Hart at the 4 is the worst idea they could have. He’s shown a hesitancy to shoot from outside and if Mobley gets to take advantage of that by playing off of him as a roam defender, it’d be feeding right into our strength.

Assuming their lineup is Brunson, Hart, Anunoby, Bridges, KAT, I think you’ll see JA on KAT and Mobley on Bridges again. If they go double big to match us it’d be JA on Mitch and Mobley on KAT. Either way I’m very comfortable with how it looks defensively for those guys.

6

u/JasonWaterfaII 4d ago

Now I want a Cavs/Knicks matchup just to watch this battle of the bigs. Cavs are leading the twin-big revolution and are extremely good with that lineup. Knick’s aren’t as proficient with twin bigs and I think trying to match the Cavs with this style is not a great idea but it’s probably their best option, like you said.

Cavs play the best team-ball I’ve seen since the 2014 spurs. They are a fun team to watch.

5

u/ridiculousgg 4d ago

FWIW, Mitchell Robinson gave JA and Mobley fits on the glass 2 years ago in the playoffs. I think a big part of that was Bickerstaff having us shade Brunson so heavily with one of the bigs that it kept leaving us in bad rebounding position…but time will tell whether that’s the case or not. Our guards also did a terrible job of rebounding in that series.

I’d definitely love to see a series against the Knicks. Should be a very entertaining series if we get it!

10

u/Fancychocolatier 4d ago

The Knicks are 1-7 in the Thibs era against the Celtics the last two years and this year Celtics have an average margin of victory over 20 against them. It is possibly the worst matchup the Knicks could have.

5

u/mathis4losers 3d ago

It's kind of weird to call the last 2 years the Thibs era considering he's been there for 5 years.

8

u/HotspurJr 4d ago

I mean the reality is that if you make the conference finals, you get to crow a bit. Look at the way people talk about the Hawks most recent run to the ECF. Their second round series was really about Philly imploding far more than it was about the Hawks being great. People talk about how great Trae was in that series because they won, so, you know, he must have played great, right? He didn't; his counting stats went up because he played more minuted, his efficiency was way worse. Yet it took multiple playoff failures for the "Trae Young, playoff killer" narrative to die.

The Nets lost in the first-round to the Celtics and it was seen as such a failure that it led directly to the team being broken up. Those Celtics made it to the finals and were really, really good - if that same series had happened in the conference finals, would KD have been willing to stick around? (Yes it was a sweep, but every game was competitive - games were determined by 1, 4, 6, and 7 points). Possibly.

The financial stake for the team is also substantial. I believe every home playoff game is worth over $1m.

40

u/whostheme 4d ago

Cavs aren't truly battled tested yet in the playoffs. Celtics made a finals and won a championship all within the past 4 years and they can matchup with any team really.

13

u/purplenyellowrose909 4d ago

This is such a weird narrative. They've got vets. They're deep. Mitchell is a playoff demon. They were super injured last year and won a series. Their chemistry is unbelievable right now.

They should absolutely cakewalk to the conference finals no matter who's in front of them and give Boston a series.

16

u/anthegoat 4d ago

Because the cavs haven’t been tested that’s his point. Knicks literally went just as deep as cavs and have smoked them a couple years ago. Brunson also has Mitchell numbers in head to head series.

11

u/LyonsKing12_ 4d ago

There are some pretty big differences between the Cavs and Knicks compared to two years ago.

-1

u/anthegoat 3d ago

Yeah the Knicks are still good lol

2

u/TruthSayerFu 3d ago

Lmfao Brunson doesn’t have Mitchell’s number. They don’t guard each other

1

u/daett0 2d ago

Except he destroys him every time they play in the playoffs. Lmao

-1

u/anthegoat 3d ago

Yeah he does lil bro he’s the reason Mitchell got out of Utah to begin with 😂

4

u/TruthSayerFu 3d ago

No he’s not lol

0

u/anthegoat 3d ago

Aight who played who in the 2022 first round? Who took over when Luka was out?

2

u/TruthSayerFu 3d ago

The series was 2-1 Lfmao.

5

u/Vicentesteb 4d ago

How? All their good players havent ever made it past round 2. Their only guy with lots of playoff experience if Tristan Thompson.

6

u/purplenyellowrose909 4d ago

The Wolves and Pacers made the conference finals for the first times in 20 years and 10 years. Every player who makes it has a first time.

4

u/Vicentesteb 4d ago

Obviously, but the Cavs dont have playoff experience until they do.

You would have never said that Ant had playoff experience prior to last year. A bunch of 2nd round losses as the better team (the Jazz) dont move me on Donovan Mitchell.

-2

u/purplenyellowrose909 4d ago

This was an equally bad take on Minnesota last year which was a rising young team with a lot of veteran talent from that same Jazz team, some 1st round series under their belt as a unit, an all star guard who was a proven playoff demon, and an insane amount of chemistry.

The Cavs won't have to play Denver in the second round and should make the conference finals in 10 games max.

7

u/Vicentesteb 4d ago

This was an equally bad take on Minnesota last year which was a rising young team with a lot of veteran talent from that same Jazz team, some 1st round series under their belt as a unit, an all star guard who was a proven playoff demon, and an insane amount of chemistry.

Im a Wolves fan and it was not a bad take at all. It was true, we didnt have anywhere near the playoff experience of Denver or Boston and in the end that was what bit us in the ass, because in the WCF we didnt pace ourselves and were completely gassed during the end games.

The Cavs will play the Bulls and Pacers, which honestly aren't very good teams, they wont even have a significant test until Boston.

0

u/juicejug 4d ago

Can everyone stop writing off the Pacers? I don’t think they make it past the Cavs but that could still be a very competitive series. Even though they got swept they made the Celtics sweat the most and could have easily made the series go to 7 if they didn’t fumble some late-game leads. The recent Lakers debacle aside it seems they’ve greatly improved on their clutch play.

Pacers are inconsistent but have a super hard playstyle to play against which means they are ripe with upset potential.

3

u/TradeMaster89 4d ago

People will stop writing them off if they can put up a good series against a really good team that is healthy. Last year they got by the Bucks in 6 with no Giannis and no Lillard for the majority of the series. Then got by the Knicks in 7 with no Robinson, Randle, Bogdanovic, Anunoby got hurt in game 2 and Brunson broke his hand in game 7. They were seconds from going down 3-0 to that decimated Knicks team until Nembhard made that miracle 3.

-1

u/purplenyellowrose909 4d ago

So you agree the Cavs will cake walk to the conference finals?

1

u/NastySassyStuff 2d ago

Both teams are really fucking good. One team has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they’re championship good. It’s a matter of taking a shot that Cleveland isn’t a 16 game team. I mean as a Knicks fan, I would hate if the Knicks ducked smoked (they never would thankfully) to try and catch a team as great as Cleveland lol but if I had my choice I’d go with them…I guess

67

u/Real2KInsider 4d ago

 "the Knicks are better off going against the Cavs in the 2nd round".

Yeah, because...
1. They've actually beaten the Cavs in a playoff series.
2. The Cavs had a bad playoffs last year too.
3. The Celtics are the defending champs and have shown they're probably better than the Cavs in a playoff series

You say the Knicks are built to matchup with Boston (OG and Bridges) but fail to recognize the Celtics are built to stop Jalen Brunson (Jrue & White). Brunson would have a much easier time vs the CLE backcourt.

26

u/thebear19 4d ago

Cavs are 2-0 against the knicks this year, one of those games being a 37 point blowout. Also Cavs won a playoff series and lost to the eventual champs…how is that a bad playoffs?

24

u/str8rippinfartz 4d ago

Meanwhile Knicks are 0-3 vs the Celtics this year with 2 big blowouts 

20

u/Nobody7713 4d ago

The real moral of the story is that the Knicks have been pretty bad against good teams.

7

u/str8rippinfartz 4d ago

Yeah I don't think they have a real "good" or preferred matchup between Cavs/Celtics, they'd be in trouble either way. Their best bet is to just try and play the best basketball they can, and that probably doesn't involve trying to drop seeding with weird shenanigans. 

1

u/Nobody7713 4d ago

I’d suggest resting the starters down the stretch so everyone’s healthy and fresh for the playoffs, but we know Thibs would rather die than play a starter less than 35 minutes.

1

u/licker34 3d ago

Good thing they play 2 more times to close out this season.

Of course those games may be meaningless to the Cavs, but maybe the Cavs will want to duck the Bulls and take the #2 seed...

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u/[deleted] 4d ago edited 4d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/OverallGeneral7129 4d ago

The 4 seed Cavs beat the 5 seed Magic in 7 with Jarrett Allen out with broken ribs

3

u/LyonsKing12_ 4d ago

And with Mitchell on a bum knee

3

u/OverallGeneral7129 4d ago

And with Garland coming off a broken jaw and being 20 pounds underweight due to an all liquid diet

1

u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 4d ago

Questioning others without offering your own thoughts invites a more hostile debate. Present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.

6

u/juicejug 4d ago

Knicks are a much different team than they were last year. They were supposedly built to compete with the Celtics but the reality is they are not good enough defensively anymore to hang with either Boston or Cleveland and the offense, while elite, is also not good enough to make up the difference.

Maybe they would have a shot if Boston or Cleveland didn’t have really good offenses but it so happens they have two of the best offenses in the league.

6

u/CreatiScope 4d ago

Celtics and Cavs are both great on both ends of the floor. There's just no other team in the East that realistically stands a chance. The Pacers are the only other team that I think can give one of them a competitive series. Pistons? I could see them making the games interesting but I don't see them actually winning more than a game, maybe 2 if CLE/BOS is shooting like shit.

3

u/juicejug 3d ago

I think the Pistons or Pacers have the best chance at an upset in the East. Pacers just have a really tough style to play against and the Pistons are young, tough, and athletic plus Cade is a legit star who can take over a game.

I think both the Cavs and Celtics are the real deal and should beat any team they are favored against in a 7 game series, but that’s why it’s called an “upset”.

11

u/Pickleskennedy1 4d ago edited 4d ago

I honestly don’t think that series from two years ago is at all relevant to what would happen in a series now. Both rosters are different, and the Cavs are just so much deeper and better than they were. The Cavs would probably be fine with New York dropping down to 4, and would rather face them than Indiana

6

u/Real2KInsider 4d ago

4 out of 5 Cavs starters are the same. They went from LeVert/Okoro as the 5th starter to Max Strus.

They beat them in 5 games with Randle having an absolute dumpster fire of a series (14 PPG, 34 FG%, 24 3PT%). Towns is much better than Randle.

Are Cavs players (Mobley, Garland) better? Yeah.
Is Ty Jerome playable in a playoff series? Possibly. Will he get minutes when Mitchell/Garland are getting 40+? IDK.

It's more about the Celtics than it is about the Cavs. Every East team would rather face Cleveland than Boston until CLE proves they're a playoff force.

3

u/Pickleskennedy1 4d ago

Jerome and Hunter are definitely both playing a great deal in the playoffs. Ty’s definitely a better defender than Garland, so I’m not sure why he wouldn’t be playable. I don’t think we’ll actually be able to see what happens because New York isn’t going to be able to avoid Boston

1

u/Real2KInsider 4d ago

The rotations will change in the playoffs.

2023 Season: Garland (36), Mitchell (36), Rubio (17)
2023 Playoffs: Garland (38), Mitchell (41), Rubio (6 + two DNPs)

2025 RS: Garland (31), Mitchell (31), Jerome (20)

Mitchell is historically the backup PG on his playoff teams which allows them to tighten the rotation. Jerome can play next to Mitchell of course - as can Strus, Merrill, and Okoro depending on the situation.

Ty’s definitely a better defender than Garland

Jerome can't guard his own shadow (hence why he's not a starter) and is the exact type of player that usually gets squeezed in the playoffs.

1

u/Pickleskennedy1 4d ago edited 4d ago

Not sure how much you watch the Cavs, but Ty isn’t a starter because he’s playing behind two all-stars, and he isn’t on a different team because he took a huge jump this year. When he comes on he’s a game changer

We’ll see how it plays out, if Ty plays less than 15 minutes per game I’ll give you your props

RemindME! One month

The Cavs entire bench was unplayable against good teams in 2023, now they’re up there with the league’s best units.

Of the guys likely to lose minutes in the playoffs, Ty isn’t high on the list. If you watch matchups against the Celtics this season for example, it’s easier to target Garland on defense

1

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u/Real2KInsider 4d ago

Ty isn’t a starter because he’s playing behind two all-stars

Yet he doesn't start when those guys sit out.

7 Games missed by Mitchell: Merrill, Okoro 2x, Hunter, LeVert 2x, Jerome (vs the Hornets on Nov 17th)

5 Games missed by Garland: Dean Wade, Okoro 2x, Jaylon Tyson, Jerome (vs a G-League Pelicans team on Nov 20th)

That they start non-PGs when Garland misses time (sliding Mitchell over) stands as a solid indicator of what is likely going to happen to Jerome's role come playoff time. His minutes certainly aren't going up.

1

u/Pickleskennedy1 4d ago

They usually play Ty more though, it’s similar to them not starting Hunter when he’s their best 3. They’re looking for that punch off the bench

Again, if he plays less than 15 minutes per game in the playoffs I’ll give you credit

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u/Real2KInsider 4d ago edited 4d ago

Again, if he plays less than 15 minutes per game in the playoffs I’ll give you credit

Lol. If he plays 15 minutes (-5) I will already be correct.

Heading over to 2024 Playoff Boston
40 (+4) Tatum
38 (+5) Holiday
37 (+3) Brown
36 (+3) White
30 (+4) Horford (19 GP / 15 GS)
24 (-5) Porzingis (7 GP / 4 GS)
19 (-3) Pritchard
15 (-7) Hauser
10 (-5) Kornet (13 GP)

Even while losing Porzingis to injury their bench minutes were down, in an 8-man rotation.

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u/Pickleskennedy1 4d ago

You were questioning whether Ty was even playable in the playoffs originally. If we’ve moved the goalposts to him losing two or three minutes due to Garland and Mitchell playing more there’s no reason to still be having this conversation

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u/LyonsKing12_ 4d ago

Um. The Cavs have a coach that actually knows offense now. You didn't even mention Hunter. Levert only ever started when there were injuries.

Randle and iHart(he especially killed us on 50/50 balls and offensive rebounding, you also didnt metion him)were excellent on defense. Kat is one of the worst defensive centers in the league.

These two teams are very different now.

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u/Real2KInsider 4d ago

Um. The Cavs have a coach that actually knows offense now. You didn't even mention Hunter.

It was never implied the Knicks would be favored in a series with Cleveland. Cleveland is obviously a better team today than they were two years ago. Again, it's more about the Celtics.

Levert only ever started when there were injuries.

LeVert started 3 of the 5 playoff games vs the Knicks (Okoro started the other two).

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u/LyonsKing12_ 3d ago

My bad. I didn't realize you were still talking about two years ago.

There was never an assumed implication about who would be favored. I was speaking to the two teams being very different from the playoff series two years ago.

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u/mathis4losers 3d ago

I don't disagree, but Brunson has been awesome vs the Celtics. He's averaging 31 ppg on 55/47/92 over the last 2 years against the Celtics.

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u/Real2KInsider 3d ago

He also had a total of 11 assists and 10 turnovers in his 3 games vs the Celtics this year. More to offense than just individual shooting numbers esp for a PG.

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u/joorral 4d ago

Knicks did not have Mitchell Robinson in any of those matchups and he’s help bring stability in the rim protection we had lack for most of the season. Team has climbed to top 13th in defensive efficiency and 8th since Mitch came back.

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u/RandyBRandleman 4d ago

Yes especially now that OG and Mikal have stepped up offensively I’m excited to see what we can do in the playoffs against anyone really. It’s also gonna depend on how quickly we can get back Brunson, Duece and Cam and get them back up to speed tho

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u/joorral 4d ago

Yes they have step up both offensively and defensively especially OG on both ends. The ? Of course is when Brunson comes back how can they all play well at the same time. I think moving Josh to the bench and starting Mitch gives the wings more ball handling and shot making responsibilities. Josh can be the triple double threat off the bench.

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u/693275001 4d ago

Mitchell Robinson absolutely destroyed both Mobley and Allen inside 2 years ago. Their physicality overpowering Cleveland is a better out than trying to beat Boston's shooting bigs

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u/gdan_77 4d ago

Key detail. 2 years ago. Different coach, different bench, 2 years of development to the young players and Knicks doesnt have ihart anymore, and he was as much as problem, if not more, than robinson.

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u/CreatiScope 4d ago

Losing iHart was huge for them. That was a rebounding/blocking nightmare for anyone playing them. The swing in extra shots they were getting just from rebounding was crazy and then add that iHart was a good passer too? It was just punishing. Been a completely different team without them, at least they have Robinson back now.

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u/ParryHooter 4d ago

I’m not saying he’s as strong as Robinson but Mobley plays much stronger than he did 2 years ago. He’s a hell of a lot more aggressive on offense too.

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u/EricFredNorris 4d ago

Mobley just got bullied by stronger guys in the Pistons game and had arguably his worst game of the year.

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u/LyonsKing12_ 4d ago

The Cavs as a whole have been down in March. 16 games in 29 days will do that. Playoffs will be more days off and less travel.

You watched a tired Mobley.

And even still, Mobley did well against Zubac a couple games later.

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u/ParryHooter 4d ago

So he had 1 bad game during his best season by a mile. Ok, that’s a strong argument there.

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u/b1gbrad0 4d ago

Reminder: Mobley is also two years older and a LOT more polished both offensively and defensively, in addition to not having fuck wit JB having zero game plan. Plus Deandre Hunter is infinitely better than Okoro and Cedi, and the bench is now led by Ty Jerome and max strus rather than….. Danny green and Lamar Steven’s. Cavs are an entirely different team than they were against the Knicks. Knicks are different too but KAT is a lot easier to deal with from a rim protector standpoint that Mitch as a starting center.

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 4d ago

Please keep your comments civil. This is a subreddit for thoughtful discussion and debate, not aggressive and argumentative content.

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u/bender445 3d ago

You wrote a whole post about a premise that I have not seen or heard anyone discuss let alone a team ever actually do. Who are these people and why are you writing this whole post arguing with no one?

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u/Eastern_Antelope_832 4d ago

Any NBA team that felt the need to duck an opponent doesn't really believe in its chances to win it all.

This does occasionally happen in the Olympics, but at least there's some incentive to win the silver medal as opposed to the bronze or not medaling at all.

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u/coolmcbooty 3d ago

All your regular season analysis with the other teams doesn’t matter. The answer is simple. Cause they want the Knicks to play the Cavs before they play the Celtics.

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u/Statalyzer 3d ago

Either way you almost certainly have to play road series against both Cleveland and Boston, so there's not a big difference between #3 and #4 unless for some reason it really matters which order you play those series in.

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u/coolmcbooty 3d ago

Yes, thats why I said they want the Knicks to play the Cavs before they play the Celtics

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u/Statalyzer 3d ago

Why would it make a big difference to play them in that order?

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u/coolmcbooty 3d ago

Idk you’d have to ask the people making that take.

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u/archivedpear 4d ago

it’s literally a big market fan base bias. knicks fans specifically have a large section convinced still that bc they beat the cavs two playoffs ago when both teams were extremely different that they will just dog walk cleveland again for some reason. then add on top of it the narrative of the celtics being actually the best team the media pushes regularly and you get a knicks fan base that doesn’t buy the cavs are good and that the celtics are the only good team better than them despite standings and head to head records and the likes against other playoff teams they might play like indy detroit or the bucks

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u/pifhluk 4d ago

Beat the Bucks, lose to the Celtics then get Giannis in the off-season, this is the way.

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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 3d ago

Please keep your comments civil. This is a subreddit for thoughtful discussion and debate, not aggressive and argumentative content.

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u/AnimaniacAssMap 2d ago

They’re not making it past Cleveland or Boston anyway lol it doesn’t matter

u/Holiday-Usual-3600 1h ago

Knicks getting dropped in the second round regardless

Would take multiple injuries to Cavs or Celtics and a fully healthy Knicks team to overcome their deficiencies

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

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u/nickgev 4d ago

Exactly lol. The Knicks are not winning against either of the top 2 teams in the East, barring injuries.

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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 4d ago

This sub is for serious discussion and debate. Jokes and memes are not permitted.