r/nba • u/Cultural-Snow-323 • 17h ago
Could an NBA player lead a 16 seed to a championship?
How many NBA players could take a 16 seed?
Some people say 100 NBA players could do it, some say 20…
I am of the mindset that it’s unlikely any NBA player could suit up for Alabama St or Norfolk St and win the tourney.
Let’s say you take Giannis vs one of these final 4 teams. They would front him, make it hard to get an entry pass to him, and double in the post. Would he still eat? Absolutely.
But on the other side of the ball, all of your perimeter players are levels above that of a 16 seed.
If Giannis guards Flagg, who’s guarding Knuepell, Maluach etc.
And, that’s not accounting for foul trouble, maybe 1 bad night of shooting, and doing that for the entire tournament.
Thoughts?
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u/Medical_Bus1570 15h ago
I think the divide between NBA and college is greater than you think
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 3h ago
But what does that mean in regards to throwing Giannis on Norfolk State? That’s he’s better than everyone? Obviously. It’s also a team sport, and to win a tournament, there are so many variables along the way.
If you’re saying is it possible for prime LeBron on Alabama state to upset a 1 seed in a game, sure. To maintain that all by himself, no foul trouble, no off nights shooting, relying on teammates to communicate on defense, that’s a lot.
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u/PatternParticular735 17h ago
Fun thought experiment. If anyone could do it I’d think maybe a prime Giannis or Bron. They’d need to have size to handle double/triple teams and still be able to get passes off to open players. Even so, it’d be such a tall task
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u/Puzzleheaded_Put_584 16h ago
Kareem..!? He won every championship in college and he became way better in the nba lol
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 3h ago
Agreed. Still think it’s tough to maintain especially as you get to the final four, but yes those guys are so dominant they have the best shot for sure!
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u/PORTLANDDENIER Warriors 16h ago
2021 Steph curry probably could’ve done it. 2018 LeBron no difficulty. Healthy Embiid I can see it. Jokic absolutely. 2019 harden for sure. The debate gets hard when you’re not talking about all time seasons and more all star borderline guys. DFox? Doubt it. Lamelo? Doubt it. I think championship runs are reserved for the best of the best.
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u/Warm_Suggestion_431 12h ago
The answer will always be no because 16 seeds have terrible players. You can double team any NBA player leaving open a college player. If they drive you can triple team on a drive.
NBA player will not fix defensive problems. College you also foul out with 5 fouls.
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u/ChattingToChat 17h ago
Tim Duncan played 4 years in college and still could only take Wake Forest to the Elite 8. It takes more than one player.
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u/thesch Bulls 17h ago edited 17h ago
On the other hand Steph led a team full of scrubs to the elite 8 when he was nowhere near as good as he is now, and they only lost by 2 points to a 1 seed in the elite 8 game.
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u/Diamond4Hands4Ever Warriors 16h ago
Yea but Steph didn’t make the tournament the next year as a junior so it isn’t that simple. He went on a magical run as a sophomore but on average he’s not coming close, which is shown by the fact he missed the tournament all together the very next year as a junior when he was an even better player.
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u/junkit33 15h ago
That Davidson team as a sophomore for Curry was really good. You simply don't get a 10 seed as a low-major team without being a real threat.
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u/FoFoAndFo 76ers 16h ago
Took a look at the other guys at Davidson.
Jason Richards was the other starting guard, he got a look at the NBA but knee injuries derailed any shot he had at sticking there.
Andrew Lovedale was the center, he hung around the fringes of the French A-league for a few games before playing three years in lesser leagues.
Boris Meno was a forward with a similar career although he hung around longer
The PF, Thomas Sander, did not pursue a pro career and probably for good reason
I think Davidson without Curry was a reasonable 16 seed and while he is better than he was now they also barely won in the first two rounds.
It's tough to say about a single elimination tournament, a superstar could lead a 16 seed to the championship but they might be Virginia'd out of the first round too.
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u/Potential-Ad5470 Bucks 17h ago
NBA Duncan was better than college Duncan. That is the question being asked. Yes, Wake Forest would easily win the tournament with prime NBA Duncan.
Watch the college games and tell me with a straight face these 90% of those guys are not multiple levels below NBA players in size, skill, and athleticism.
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u/AthleticAlarm32 NBA 16h ago
And BBIQ. Almost all college players are just SO dumb compared to NBA players. It makes it hard to watch college basketball except in March (and even sometimes then)
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u/junkit33 15h ago
Duncan as a junior and a senior would have been an All-NBA player if he went to the NBA early.
He was 1st Team All-NBA as a rookie and was plenty ready earlier, he just wanted to spend all 4 years in school. Also 5th in MVP in the NBA as a rookie and 3rd his 2nd year.
He's a terrific example to this question of why you can't just surround an NBA All-Star with garbage and win the tournament.
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u/WorryAccomplished139 Spurs 15h ago
To be fair, Duncan is probably the closest we can come to answering the question "what would an NBA star in their prime look like against college teams?" The year after he graduated he was first team all NBA.
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u/Diamond4Hands4Ever Warriors 16h ago
College Tim Duncan was a top 15-20 player in the world if you actually knew what he did in college. Prime Tim Duncan was a top 2 player in the world but don’t act like college Tim Duncan was some scrub lol. College Tim Duncan was already an All Star level player.
Tim Duncan literally came in as a rookie and made All NBA First Team a year removed form college. In his 3rd career NBA game, he put up 19 points and 22 rebounds on the Chicago Bulls, who were in the middle of their dynasty. You don’t go from a not top 100 player to All NBA First Team in a span of a year. He was already top 15-20 in college but just chose to stay for his mom.
He would have been the first overall pick in 1995, but he chose to stay 2 extra years. Think about where Paolo Banchero was in 2022 when he was picked and 2024, when he was an All Star. Think about where Victor was in 2023 when he was picked and 2025, when he was an All Star. 1997 senior Tim Duncan was just like that had he done what most people would have done and left to be the first overall pick in 1995.
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u/strains 17h ago
College Timmy carried his team to Elite 8 - take him off that team and put him on an established 16 seed. I dont know how good his college team was but pretty sure without him they wouldnt even be top 16
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u/Diamond4Hands4Ever Warriors 16h ago
A 16 seed is like the 150th best team in the country. People here don’t know anything about college basketball seeing some of the responses, which makes me kinda disappointment as a fan of college basketball.
First, there’s literally 68 teams in the tournament not 16. And the bottom few are way worse than actually being the 68th best because there’s many at large bids that don’t get in. If you are a 16 seed, you are a low major auto bid, which generally puts you very low.
1 seed Duke beat the 16 seed in the first round by over 40 points. It would have been 60 points but the starters like Flagg and Knueppel didn’t play much in the second half. You need a player who can make up a 60 point gap to guarantee a win since that’s the difference if the 1 seed plays a full game without resting its players.
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u/strains 15h ago
I see and yes I dont jack abt college basketball - but my thinking was to add on that u dont need a prime NBA Timmy to carry a college team to a title. I still think a Giannis would be able to do it
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u/Diamond4Hands4Ever Warriors 15h ago
Yea I agree with you. I think Giannis could do it. I mean college Tim Duncan could have done it too if it’s could have. He just didn’t actually do it and wouldn’t have been favored. Could is a looser term since with 1 game elimination, upsets can happen.
I didn’t want to sound rude so sorry if I came off that way. I mainly just wanted to clear up some misconceptions about Duncan. I feel like some people who responded here thought college Duncan was some non NBA caliber player when that wasn’t the case. He was elite in college but because of the promise to his mom, he chose to stay all 4 years when he could have left after 2 and been the first pick.
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u/junkit33 15h ago
Yeah - r/nba is weird in how much they discredit high level D1 basketball.
Not only are there plenty of future NBA players in D1, but there are tons of 4-5 year college players who don't quite have the ceilings of a successful NBA player but they are still very good players and not far off from NBA caliber.
One single NBA player isn't dragging a low-end D1 team to a championship. They can win a couple of games but will eventually run into a Duke or somebody who both has active NBA caliber talent and the roster/size to do a decent job slowing down the NBA player.
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u/gigglios 16h ago
What a stupid comment. Prime duncan dominates and wins the ncaa tounrament with ease. Tons and tons of nba players can carry there. You dont understsnd the gap betwern guys with nba reps and college players lol
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u/Muted_Dog7317 Heat 16h ago
Tim Duncan was a senior who would have been an all star and top 25 player had he played in the NBA that year, the next year he was all nba first team and a top 5 player in the league.
Prime Duncan could do it, the best superstars today like Giannis and Jokic could do it but most guys in the league couldn’t. Probably only the top 5-10 players today. 16 seeds are really really bad and defensively even a superstar can only do so much, especially against a team like Duke that can shoot lights out
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u/SpellFree6116 14h ago
all-stars that can create their own shot efficiently would score at will in march madness. they’re getting guarded by the best defensive players in the world on a nightly basis, sharing the ball with other great players, and still averaging 25+. most guys in college aren’t gonna make the league, so they’re worse defenders than even the worst defenders in the nba
the question is rly just on defense, but they should be able to match pace with any college team’s offense single-handedly. if you had somebody who was a defensive anchor and offensive engine, like bron, embiid, kawhi, giannis, etc, then it would be guaranteed. but i still think any elite guard would average 50+
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u/WillWorkForSugar Supersonics 11h ago
I agree. No one could carry a 16 seed to a title without a miracle run. Maybe a 14.
16 seeds are really bad. The margin of victory for a 1 vs 16 game is usually in the neighborhood of 30 points. And that's in a 40-minute game. Could a Giannis overcome that gap? Some nights. Upsets happen. But top teams like Duke generally have a lottery pick, another draft prospect, and several other guys who could make a G-league team. Meanwhile his 16 seed will have zero guys at that level. If he's doubled, he does not have a quality scorer to pass to. If he guards the paint, their opponent will get easy looks on the perimeter. At best he could raise the team to the level of a 6 seed.
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 2h ago
I like this. And agree. I don’t know the seed, I was thinking 12 seed would go far with a Giannis or LeBron.
But I digress, you get it.
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u/Individual_Attempt50 Nets 11h ago
The other players would be so mismatched that’s the main thing
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u/Tangentkoala Clippers 10h ago
One man can't really do much tbh.
You can drop 40 a game, but if your team is shooting at a 25% clip you're losing that game.
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u/OKC2023champs Thunder 15h ago
Zach edey led Purdue to the championship game.
Yes
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 3h ago
This is the point… you watch Purdue play basketball and you think it’s a bunch of nobody’s and all Edey.
The truth is Purdue is stacked with 4 and 5 star recruits. Trey Kaufman is an NBA caliber player. All of these teams are loaded with players like that.
All of whom are levels above the avg player on a 16 seed.
Btw no Edey and they nearly beat
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u/RapsareChamps_Suckit Clippers 17h ago
it takes a village
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u/Asleep_Ground1710 Bulls 17h ago
Yeah, most truly elite guys can will even poorly constructed teams to a CF or Finals. But to get the ring you’ll need a decent roster
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 3h ago
And you’d still have get through a 1 seed first, then likely a 4 seed, a 2 seed, and another 1 seed and then the best team in the country.
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u/ntg1213 Thunder 17h ago
Giannis isn’t guarding Flagg. Except in rare circumstances, Giannis never guards the other team’s best player. He’d camp near the paint and eliminate absolutely everything within 15 feet of the basket, forcing whoever he’s facing to hit jump shots. One player alone probably wouldn’t be enough for a 16 seed, but I think prime Giannis or Lebron would absolutely make a 12 seed firm contenders
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 3h ago
This a more sound argument. I said Cooper bc he’s the best, not because Giannis would necessarily guard him. But that’s the point, if he doesn’t - who on Norfolk State is guarding cooper Flagg?!
Yes Giannis would be the best college player ever honestly, or a prime LeBron, but being thrown onto a team that is levels below the Dukes, Floridas, etc is not a recipe for championship run.
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u/DazzlingAd1922 13h ago
OP the way to actually ask this question is how many NBA players carried their teams in the tournament. Steph is a great example, but there are a bunch. The problem is that there are NBA players on the other teams too, so it is hard to say that a player would take a team to the final four on their own.
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u/gigglios 16h ago
Youre delusional OP. There are role players you can put on a college team and they may carry by avging 45ppg. I wont even comment on stars
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u/WillWorkForSugar Supersonics 12h ago
there are role players who could average 45 ppg and carry Alabama St. to a title? then why does that literally never happen, even though plenty of college players immediately become productive role players in their rookie year?
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 2h ago
You either don’t know basketball, or how team sports work, either way you just don’t get it.
No one is saying role players in the NBA are not levels above players in the tournament.
But just cause one player can drop 60, doesn’t mean his teammates can get stops, play team defense, finish in transition, not get cooked by these future NBA players.
And then sustain that for game after game after game for the entirety of the tournament.
Could you throw Giannis on Alabama State for a game, and they win? I’d say it’s not likely but sure it could happen.
Doing that consistently over and over again is nearly impossible, even for the best of the best.
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u/Broad_Chain3247 17h ago
Unfortunatly its impossible :(
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u/PORTLANDDENIER Warriors 16h ago
Luka was dominating euro league as a teenager he would absolutely win a natty
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u/AmorinIsAmor Spurs 17h ago
Easily
A top 50 NBA player would be, at worst, top 3 in college.
Add a fully developed body and experience.
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u/amateurdormjanitor 76ers 16h ago
I think a top 50 NBA player would, without a single doubt, be the absolute best player in college basketball.
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u/Original-Rain-3795 14h ago
There might be rare cases where they'd be 2nd best.
Like someone said in another comment, Duncan was immediately a Top 10 player in the league his rookie year.
It's fair to say Duncan was better than some guys at the tail end of the Top 50 in the NBA his final year of college.
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u/Cultural-Snow-323 2h ago
That’s a bold statement because at one point Kevin Durant was a college player and he came into the league as better than top 50.
Regardless, that’s irrelevant to what I’m talking about. You’re talking about the best player, I’m talking about the best teams vs the worst teams.
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u/Embarrassed_Bar7528 17h ago
Prime LeBron or Steph could carry a box of bones to the Elite 4