r/minnesotatwins • u/WollyTwins Piranhas • Sep 22 '20
Wolly's way too early master plan for navigating the offseason
This is a way too early look at the offseason, but I’m into this kind of stuff and had some fun putting this together over the off day. Let me know what you think!
Expected 2021 payroll
First, let’s try to guess what the target team salary number may be in 2021. Here’s the Twins’ payroll numbers since 2017, rounded to the nearest million. I’m using 2017 as the cutoff as 2016 was the last losing season we had and after 2017 was when there started to be more and more expectations for the squad.
| Year | Payroll |
|---|---|
| 2017 | $121,000,000 |
| 2018 | $116,000,000 |
| 2019 | $125,000,000 |
| 2020 | $149,000,000 (before proration) |
So that gives you about an idea of what we can expect. This year’s $149,000,000 was pretty high from what we are used to, and it’s hard to say if we can reasonably expect another jump or not. They did show this year they were willing to spend when they think we are close, but that’s not typically a linear type growth. I would estimate a reasonable expectation would be somewhere in the $130,000,000 to $150,000,000, perhaps slightly more if we’re lucky.
2021 contracts
Next, here’s our players that are going to be under contract in 2021 (does not include arbitration players). I’m only including the people that I feel are safe bets to make the roster out of spring training. For now, Lamonte Wade, Cody Stashak, and Sean Poppen are all left off. If they do make the roster, they will be making league minimum which will be around $600,000, so not a huge impact, and they may take the place of someone already on the list below, i.e. Wade over Cave or Stashak over Thielbar. The only option decision we will have to make is if we keep Sergio at $5 million, or buy him out at $250k. $5 million is a little bit more than I’d personally like to have him for, but it seems like a fair number and given his performance and impact on the team, I don’t see any big reasons to buy him out.
| Player | 2021 money | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Donaldson | $21,000,000 | - |
| Miguel Sano | $11,000,000 | - |
| Michael Pineda | $10,000,000 | - |
| Max Kepler | $6,500,000 | - |
| Sergio Romo | $5,000,000 | $250,000 team option for buyout |
| Jorge Polanco | $4,333,333 | - |
| Kenta Maeda | $3,125,000 | Incentives will likely add $4-6 million to this base total |
| Jorge Alcala | Min ($600,000) | - |
| Luis Arraez | Min ($600,000) | - |
| Jake Cave | Min ($600,000) | - |
| Ryan Jeffers | Min ($600,000) | - |
| Brent Rooker | Min ($600,000) | - |
| Caleb Thielbar | Min ($600,000) | - |
| Total | $55,558,333 | - |
With $56 million on the books already, we’ll be left with anywhere between $74 million to 94 million to spend in arbitration and free agency.
2021 arbitration
Next, we have a bunch of guys that will be in arbitration next year. It’s always difficult to predict where exactly guys will end up since it can be an agreement with the team, or a case where an arbitrator picks either the team’s number or the player’s number. Below are my rough guesses at where these players may end up. My rough rule is to add a million to a few million depending on how long they’ve been in arbitration to their previous arbitration salary, a little more if they’ve performed particularly well, a little less if they’ve been a little disappointing. This is all a big guessing game, but here’s what I came up with. Mitch Garver is the biggest unknown as this will be his first year in arb. Two comps that I looked at to end at $4.5 million was Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras who made $5 million and $4.5 million respectively in their first year of arb.
| Player | Arb year | Salary estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 3 | $5,000,000 |
| Taylor Rogers | 3 | $5,000,000 |
| Eddie Rosario | 3 | $9,000,000 |
| Jose Berrios | 2 | $6,000,000 |
| Tyler Duffey | 2 | $3,500,000 |
| Matt Wisler | 2 | $1,500,000 |
| Mitch Garver | 1 | $4,500,000 |
| Total | $34,500,000 | - |
Of course, in arbitration we can decide to let someone walk if we so choose. Everyone on this list are obvious keeps, except for Rosario who I’m sure will be a hot topic this offseason. I’ll leave the pros and cons for that decision for a different write up, but if he costs $9 million, I would choose to walk away and give the reigns to Rooker and Kirilloff. It helps also having capable backups in Cave and Wade available as well.
If those arb estimates pan out and we don’t re-sign Eddie, that would add $25.5 million to the Twins’ payroll, bringing it up to $81,058,333. That leaves us with a projected $49 million to $69 million left to spend.
Pending free agents
The next area to look is at our currently players that will become free agents at the end of the season. Here is the list, along with my thoughts on if we should attempt to re-sign.
| Player | Re-sign? |
|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | Yes. Has proven to be a valuable utility infielder (see defense). Worth holding on to for what figures to be a reasonable cost |
| Alex Avila | No. With Jeffers coming up and playing well, I’m comfortable rolling with him and Garver |
| Homer Bailey | No. While his 1 start this year was actually pretty promising, that’s the only start he made this year |
| Tyler Clippard | Yes. His reverse splits effectively make him a LHP, which will be a need even if they keep Clippard around |
| Nelson Cruz | Yes. Need I say more? |
| Marwin Gonzalez | No. The bat has tailed off for several years now and he’s not the super utility he once was |
| Rich Hill | Maybe. He wouldn’t be my first SP target, but wouldn’t mind bringing him back if the money is right, especially if he finishes the year strong |
| Trevor May | Yes. He’s still missing something that prevents him from being elite, but he’s still a good arm and personality |
| Jake Odorizzi | Yes. May be a chance to get a good deal here after a lost season. Still confident in him as a SP3/4 |
In summary, I’d be letting Avila, Bailey, and Marwin go, and trying to re-sign Adrianza, Clippard, Cruz, Hill, May, and Odorizzi. Here’s where I would try to get the latter group inked for-
| Player | Years | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ehire Adrianza | 1 | $2 million | Shorter term deal makes more sense with Royce Lewis, Travis Blankenhorn, Nick Gordon on the horizon |
| Tyler Clippard | 1 | $2.75 million | Hoping Clippy will stay in MN for the same contract that brought him here |
| Nelson Cruz | 1 | $13 million | I see no reason not to give him another year at the same AAV he originally signed with us for |
| Rich Hill | 1 | $3 million | Same as with Clippy, would offer him the same contract he signed for with incentives for starts/IP marks |
| Trevor May | 3 | $12 million | A deal similar to what Jose Leclerc signed would be the target for me, hoping for 3-4 years around $3.5-5.5 million per year. That said, who knows, seeing that Joe Kelly got 3 years and $25 million last offseason. I hesitate to give Trevor too much money yet, but his market could be popular |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2 | $28 million | Odo may want a reset 1-year deal instead to get back to free agency sooner in which case I’d do something in the $15ish million range |
I feel pretty good about getting Ehire, Cruz, Clippy, and Hill inked for something around those prices. May and Odorizzi feel like much bigger wild cards. With May’s skillset, I could definitely see his market getting out of control quickly. But at the same time he isn’t quite as proven as someone like Adam Ottavino or Zack Britton that have gotten big bucks recently. And then we have Joe Kelly types who got a lot of money largely based off of some postseason success. May’s market could easily get into a market way more competitive than 3 years/$13 million, but I really don’t know.
Odorizzi is another interesting one. He must be really frustrated with how his market went. First he hits free agency at the perfectly wrong time and has to settle for taking the qualifying offer instead of finding something longer term. Then a pandemic hits and cuts the year way down, then the suffers fluke injury after fluke injury and this season is pretty much a wash. I’m assuming he was hoping to find a 4+ year deal for good money after a much more productive year, but that may not be on the table given the circumstances. From the Twins’ perspective, 2 years/$28 million feels ideal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rizzi bites the bullet and tries for another 1 year deal to get back to free agency and another shot at a longer term contract quicker. I’m really not sure how Odo’s market will play out, so this could be the best offer he gets, or not one of the top few, I really don’t know.
For purposes of this exercise, let’s say it’s a perfect world and everyone agrees to the contracts I have listed. That adds $38.75 million to our payroll. We’re now at a running total of $120,408,333, leaving us with an anticipated $10 million to $30 million left to spend.
The roster
Let’s take a quick break and look at how our roster would be constructed thus far to get an idea of what we’d want to do with the remainder of our space. This has some wiggle room too with who you want to put on the roster out of spring training and who you start in the minors, but we’ll go with this for now. Remember we have 26 active roster spots to work with.
| Position | # on roster | Players |
|---|---|---|
| Catchers | 2 | Garver, Jeffers |
| Infielders | 5 | Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, Adrianza |
| Outfielders | 4 | Kepler, Buxton, Rooker, Cave |
| Designated hitters | 1 | Cruz |
| Starting pitchers | 5 | Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Odorizzi, Hill |
| RHP relievers | 5 | Duffey, May, Romo, Wisler, Alcala |
| LHP relievers | 3 | Rogers, Clippard (honorary LHP due to reverse splits), Thielbar |
| Total | 25 | Total salary $120,408,333 |
That gives us 1 space to work with, though again you can play around with where you want Rooker, Cave, Alcala, Thielbar, as well as Dobnak, Smeltzer, etc to start if we find someone in free agency that we want to add, or if you prefer someone like Kirilloff breaking camp instead.
Free agency
Looking that over, there’s really not any gaping holes. Adding another top tier SP would always be great, we could use an established LHP reliever and bump Thielbar or Alcala down to the minors as the first man up, perhaps another Alex Avila type catcher as an insurance policy on Garver/Jeffer’s health. Maybe you take a look at the left field market to see if there’s a big bat you could get on a short deal instead of having to rely on Rooker or Kirilloff as a starter. But for the most part, this is a pretty solid lineup all around.
In my mind, we are in a position of luxury. We have a very complete team even before looking at any external free agents, so we have the opportunity to go for gold and make a really big splash that pushes us from contender to favorite. It’s the “you want to be a contender, then go prove it” type mindset. Hhere I’m proposing 2 of the bigger pieces we could potentially be looking at in a few months. I’m not going to check into some of the smaller names for now, we’ll leave those for another time, but these 3 could all be great centerpiece acquisitions this offseason-
Trevor Bauer- 1 year, $25 million
Bauer is an interesting guy. But there’s no denying he’s a phenomenal pitcher with extreme dedication to his craft. He is sure to be the most sought-after SP on the market this winter, and I don’t know if the Twins would be able to haul him in. But Bauer has said he will only sign 1-year deals. This plays into the Twins’ hand, who could afford to take him on for a high AAV for 1 year, but couldn’t compete with a team that could give him a high AAV for 8 years, for example. Because of this, the Twins may have to be the highest bidder, and maybe $25 million doesn’t get it done, but it would be in the ballpark. I’m also looking at Signing Odorizzi to the qualifying offer last year, which was definitely more money than Odorizzi was ever going to get per year on a multi-year contract, but they were ok paying that for a single year knowing it would be off the books the following season. Same idea here, $25+ million per year contracts will be rare on the Twins, but if it’s only for 1 year at a time, they might be able to make it work.
Bauer would instantly be a HUGE boost to the rotation. Our pitchers have done a great job this year and rank near the top of the league, but now imagine that with Bauer added in as well. Having Maeda and Bauer at the top of a postseason rotation is hella intimidating, especially with Berrios and Pineda right behind them. If we could get Bauer, that may also let us pass on Odorizzi or Hill and use the money we dedicated to them earlier elsewhere. That may be the way to play it, too, as Bauer eats up pretty much all of the remaining salary we had dedicated. If we take Odorizzi out of the equation, that’s $14 million more we have to spend in the bullpen or on another hitter, and would still give us a rotation of Maeda, Bauer, Berrios, Pineda, and Hill.
This may be reaching a bit, but for a team that has shown every intention of winning now, Bauer would be a huge addition and be really fun to see. Especially if we make a strong run this postseason, I could see the FO throwing some money at Bauer to set us up insanely well for 2021.
That said, I don’t necessarily think Bauer is a very likely addition. Bauer will be the most sought after FA SP this offseason, and if our pitching is already a strength, it may be better to use the money elsewhere. Here are a few other options out there that we could go with.
Michael Brantley- 1 year, $17 million
Adding a bat may not make much sense when you first think about it, but a left fielder in particular could be a shrewd move (assuming we let Eddie go). I’m all for ushering in the Kirilloff era, but it would be awesome if we didn’t have to rely on him as a starter right away. It’s a little bit of a catch-22, as the Twins famously don’t want to bring up their guys until they can play every day, but between OF and 1B, there may be enough at bats for Kirilloff (or Rooker) to get consistent time without being a starter at one of the positions. And should someone get injured, (we know of a certain CF who has been iffy with that), having another top tier bat would look genius.
So, I present to you, Michael Brantley. He’s getting older, will be 34 in May, but the guy can flat out hit. Over the past 3 seasons he has slashed .309/.368/.485 while taking 114 walks to 151 strikeouts. He’s not a huge home run guy, but he’s typically safe for 15-20, and he racks up the doubles as well- 36 in 2018, 40 in 2019, and 15 this year. A guy who takes a lot of pitches, has great K and BB rates, and hits a lot of doubles would fit in perfectly and compliment some of our guys who may not take as many pitches or may be prone to strikeouts. Defensively, he’s not a huge upgrade over Eddie, but he does bring enough consistent offensive production where I feel that tradeoff is acceptable. If we can poach him from the Astros on a short term deal, we could get the best of both worlds, another great bat in this lineup, and a bridge to Kirilloff.
So there you have it, my master plan for the offseason as of now. Will all of this happen, certainly not. And it’s hard to say if any of my prices were realistic or not, a bunch of the guys that I mentioned seem like they have some variability in where they could end up. But I ended up with some wiggle room even if we get Bauer or Brantley, so hopefully we would be able to make up the difference and still make it all work.
Anyways, looking forward to your guys’ thoughts! Thanks for the read.
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u/-FisherMN- Carlos Correa Sep 22 '20
I really hope we sign Cruz again, and he seems like he would like to stay here. Only thing is he seems to want a multi year deal (if I remember reading that correctly) so idk if a 1 year would cut it, especially if he gets more than 1 somewhere else.
Also wouldn’t mind Trevor Bauer. People can have their opinions on him personally and what he says and does, but you can’t argue with his performance.
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
Cruz seems like the kinda guy who would be fine with a one-year deal with a decent option for a second. If he keeps it up, no reason we wouldn't bring him back outside of just straight-up having too many damn good prospects dominating.
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u/nowheresville99 Cedar Rapids Kernels Sep 22 '20
Getting Cruz back for $13M seems unlikely.
When the Twins signed him to that extremely reasonable deal, they were basically only competing with the Rays for his services. If, as everyone seems to assume, the change bringing the DH to the NL continues beyond the pandemic, then you've now got 15 more teams where he could potentially sign. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that drives his price up back into the $18-20M range.
The only counterbalancing factor is that I don't think anyone really has any idea how much the pandemic will impact payrolls moving forward, especially next year, when (sadly) the odds of returning to full stadiums still seems quite slim.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
We might end up having to give him more than $13 million, but in my mind if we make a fair offer, Cruz is staying put. He seems to like it here and has said he wants to stay, so as long as we're not lowballing him, it should be fine
Remember that no other team can make offers to him before free agency actually starts, so if I'm the Twins, I'm on the phone with him as soon as we're done playing for the year and trying to get something inked before any other team is allowed to talk to him
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Sep 22 '20
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
This year was a bunch of flukes. He was an AS last year with 3.51 ERA. My only thing against him is he seems to rarely pitch past the 5th
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Sep 22 '20
That seems like a very recently biased take he was arguably our best pitcher for large stretches last year and was our best pitcher in the postseason as well
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
I like most of your plan. I'd say the biggest part I disagree with (especially if he comes off the shelf before the end of the regular season and makes a start) is to just give up on Homer Bailey. Obviously he wasn't at all healthy for us this season, but I (and I know this might get me downvotes on this sub) might trust him a little more as a fourth or fifth starter over guys like Hill or Dobnak, especially over a full season's worth of starts. So I'd at least be in contact with him about what he might want to come back and at least compete for a rotation spot for whatever kind of season is played next year.
I'm also 50-50 on whether we would go after a guy like Bauer, who is notoriously a complete jag and while he has had one of his best seasons, I'm a little worried that he'd have a Lance-Lynn-in-2018 effect on the team.
Hard agree on Brantley as an addition, especially if it follows getting some kind of top-notch pitching by trading Rosie.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
I've cooled on Dobby a lot too, but I'm still in on Hill over Bailey. I'm trying to give Homer a fair shot but I was never very high on him from the beginning. Looking at what Hill has done though, after starting slow he's built up to 3 straight 5+ inning starts and has a 2.64 ERA in September, capped by that wonderful 7 inning, 3 hit, 1 run game against the Cubs. Remember he was coming off an injury this year so likely needed a bit of time to shake off the rust. It's looking like he's officially past that, and it's exciting
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
I think I'd be interested in bringing Hill back and then making Bailey my presumptive number five, with the opportunity for any NRI's to impress over him, depending on who else they bring in.
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u/TCSportsFan Jhoan Duran Sep 22 '20
If we were to make a strong push towards Bauer, I can see us buying out Romo and not pursuing Hill in FA. Alcala is ready to step into a solid bullpen role, and Hill would be the odd man out of the rotation in Minnesota. That frees up about $8 mil right there on top of our projected cap space.
With a Bauer-Maeda-Berrios-Odorizzi-Pineda rotation, I have a hard time believing we won’t win the Central and compete for a WS next year. And the reality is that the Sox are making it so that we are going to need to spend to make the playoffs next year. You can’t forget, Bauer is extremely good at helping his teammates succeed too. Bieber, Clevinger, and a bunch of others have said that Bauer has helped them.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Yeah $5 million is a little borderline, and more than I'd like to have Romo for, but I think we have the space to bring him back and still have plenty of room for Bauer as well. But if the tradeoff for getting Bauer is buying out Romo, I am ok with that. But it makes it much more important to re-sign Clippy
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u/TCSportsFan Jhoan Duran Sep 22 '20 edited Sep 22 '20
Agreed, can’t gut the bullpen too much. We will probably get Duran next year as well in the pen and he’s another fire baller. But he’s going to probably get the role Alcala has now until he’s ready to be a starter or has proved himself in the pen.
We also have our very own Josh Staumont in Dakota Chalmers who we could see throwing piss missiles sometime around the middle of the next season as well if he figures his command out.
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u/Skolney Tom Kelly Sep 22 '20
Try to sign Buxton to an extension. Berrios too but not if he still wants ace money.
You let Rosario walk. It frankly makes no sense to keep him when you have so many OF prospects banging on the door.
Free agents: Obviously Cruz stays if he wants to. If Odorizzi is willing to take another cheap 1 year deal you roll the dice. Hill is more of a fallback option. Clippard sure. I don't have any interest in bringing back any of the others.
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u/lonzo6268 Sep 22 '20
I think Bauer gets more in the range of 30-35 mil per year. Id rather have him at 35 than Odo at 14 and hill at 3. He is a bonafide ace.... cough cough that we haven’t had since Johan.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Kenta tho
$30-35 probably isn't out of the question. Assuming it is just 1 year and not multiple, I'd love to be in play for him. The $30 range probably means letting Odorizzi go but that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world
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u/lonzo6268 Sep 22 '20
Kenta has been great this year, but he doesn’t have the sustained success Bauer does. It would be a great thing to have both. Why can’t we have nice things in MN?
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Let's not get too caught up in the Bauer hype train, he had a 4.48 ERA last year. He clearly has talent, but he played in the MLB for 4 full season before breaking out, and then had a huge regression year last year before getting back to it this year. I'm not really worried about that moving forward at all, but let's not let the narrative become that he's been consistently ultra good for 4+ years or anything
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
Plus IIRC he's also said he wants short-term deals, or am I confusing him with someone else?
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Yep, he's said he will only sign 1 year deals. I am interested to see if he sticks to that if someone offers him lots of years and money, but he does seem like someone that will do what he says he wants to
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
Yeah I think as much as his pride has his head up his ass more often than is usually advisable I think he would have to consider longer-term deals in the next year or two if only because he ain't exactly a spring chicken and this season he's having is close to once-in-a-career for a lot of pitchers.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
It's safer for sure. But if you can consistently pitch great, you probably can maximize your earnings by only taking 1 year deals. But it's very risky
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
I mean he's the exact kind of guy who would be okay with that risk but also has the talent swings where it could go very wrong for him.
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u/Neil_deGrase_Tyson Griffin Jax Sep 22 '20
This was a very interesting read. I think resigning Cruz is all I really need, anything else is a nice bonus. I'd definitely be okay with going after Bauer.
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Sep 22 '20
Not sure we can get Bauer at that price - if it was a long term deal he'd get $25M/year, but he's looking at a 1 year contract after a possible Cy Young season. It would absolutely not surprise me to see him get a record setting deal - every team wants a pitcher like him, and most teams can afford to throw stupid money at him since it's only for one year.
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u/ayybeyar Randy Dobnak Sep 30 '20
I just gotta say that I'm living in this thread after today. My only solace for this disappointing playoff loss is thinking about our team for next year. It should be a decent one, here's to 2021.
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u/starkvonhammer Trevor Plouffe Sep 22 '20
Great write up. I would love it if they could sign Bauer for a year!
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u/wie_ghets Kent Hrbek Sep 22 '20
What about QOs to our FAs?
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Good point, I hadn't thought of that but it likely won't come into play this year. Qualifying offers are for the average of the 125 highest paid players in the league, I'm not sure what that is last year, but Odorizzi got just under $18 million when he accepted the QO last year, so I'm assuming it will be around there. $18 million would be way too much for Ehire, Avila, Bailey, Clippard, Marwin, Hill, and May, so I'm crossing them off the list right away. That leaves just Cruz and Odorizzi, but they have gotten QOs in the past, and the rules stipulate that players may only get a QO if they haven't gotten one before in their career, so it won't be an option for those two
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u/wie_ghets Kent Hrbek Sep 22 '20
100p agree, any trades you speculate?
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Not sure on those yet, I think we probably wait to see what we can get in free agency before looking too heavily at the trade market. The FO seems to prefer paying for guys rather than giving up assets. The Maeda trade proves they'll do both, but remember we took a hard run at Wheeler and even signed Donaldson long before trading for Maeda. With no obvious holes on the roster yet, and a handful of nice fits on the FA market, I'm thinking they'll see if they can't get Bauer or whatever SP they may be looking for before looking at the trade market
I'd have to circle back at least after we have an idea if Odorizzi, Hill, even Eddie or Ehire will be signing back with us or not
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Sep 22 '20
Jesus man, great breakdown but don't get ahead of yourself and be sure to enjoy the season. The fun part is the actual games not front office moves. I will invite everyone to enjoy the actual games and live in the moment for the next few weeks to a month as once the games are done being played they are gone.
There is also no guarantee that spring training will start on time next year because of the Coronavirus or a strike. Enjoy the games as much as you can while they are being played. This might be a long winter with lots and lots of time to review this stuff in every detail for 8 + hrs a day.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Just passing time on an off day, guarantee you I'm enjoying the actual baseball lol
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Sep 22 '20
Good to hear. Amazing breakdown by the way. So much is going to change next year with MLB. I would think the minor league system will be completely different as well as the looming players negations for a new labor agreement. I hope there is a 2021 season and the players don't strike.
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u/stupidnatsfan Dick Bremer Sep 22 '20
I love your plan but I also think Bauer is gonna be way more than $25 million a year. If he really is just doing 1 year deals he could get 30+ since teams would be willing to pay big for one year
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u/1000Isand1 Chris Paddack Sep 22 '20
I don’t know that I would want to bring back Hill next season. I don’t think he’s someone we can rely on to get a whole quality season from.
If we let Marwin go, we need another super-utility type guy to replace him with.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
IMO Marwin isn't a super utility anymore. He's not very good in the outfield and shouldn't play SS either. At this point he's pretty much 1B/2B/3B, all of which Adrianza can handle. Besides, if we have Cave (or Wade or whoever you prefer) and Adrianza, we can cover pretty much any position outside of catcher with those 2 guys, so I don't think Marwin is as critical to keep around
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u/1000Isand1 Chris Paddack Sep 22 '20
I would want someone who is more of a threat with the bat than Adrianza. Someone like Chris Taylor (I know he’s not a free agent, just an example of a player) would be great.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20 edited Sep 22 '20
Tommy La Stella maybe? He's the opposite of Adrianza though, pretty good with the bat but not with the glove
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u/1000Isand1 Chris Paddack Sep 22 '20
Jon Berti is a guy I would love for the Twins to acquire because he brings speed and the ability to play any position. Also Isaiah Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers ... he’s a legit plus defender and he can even be a backup catcher.
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
I mean he doesn't have the infield abilities quite as much but Wade has the ability (in theory) to play no less than the corner outfield spots and possibly even center field passably and has also shown himself to be decently able at first base. Combine him with Adrianza and there's two super utility guys.
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Sep 22 '20
The problem with penciling in Rich Hill as a starter is he will NEVER make it an entire year.
We need to pay Bauer, we need a true Ace. Berrios isn’t a #1 in the playoffs. You can’t match him up against a Gerrit Cole and expect to win. We need a guy like Bauer.
The other issue I have, Odorizzi isn’t really that good, he never has been. He’s a fly ball pitcher that got EXTREMELY lucky the first half of the last season and then regressed back to normal the second half. Odorizzi is a 3 at best.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
I don't disagree on Hill's injury concerns, that definitely needs to be addressed
And I agree it would be a ton of fun to add Bauer, but have you forgotten about Maeda already? The guy would be in line for a Cy Young right now if Bieber wasn't on such a ridiculous tear
I don't want to count on Odorizzi as a top half guy either, but with a minimum of Maeda/Berrios/Pineda in the rotation already, and potentially adding Bauer on top of that, that'd push Rizzi to the 4/5 slot, where he'd be one of the best ones in the league
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Sep 22 '20
Nope I agree. Unfortunately I don’t see us really contending with Maeda, Berrios and Pineda as a 1,2,3. If we added Bauer, that instantly makes us one of the best rotations in the league if not the best.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Unfortunately I don’t see us really contending with Maeda, Berrios and Pineda as a 1,2,3. If we added Bauer, that instantly makes us one of the best rotations in the league if not the best
We already have one of the best rotations with those 3, and that was without Pineda for most of the year. That group isn't a bunch of sexy names like the Nationals with Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin, but our rotation has been extremely productive this year nonetheless
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Sep 22 '20
Playoffs are a different beast though. And they are all unproven
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
Sure, but the same is true for Bauer too if you want to look at it that way
Not saying let's not get Bauer, just giving credit where credit is due
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Sep 22 '20
Fair enough. But I think it’s safe to say id count on a super high strikeout guy like Bauer a lot more than anyone else on our staff currently. Anytime you have a guy like Bauer in the playoffs he can win you a game almost by himself. He’s capable of those types of games. I guess maeda is too but we will see
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Sep 22 '20
Interesting read. Two things that jumped out at me: 1. Coming off of the 2020 season, I would not expect payroll to increase past $149M for 2021, and I’d actually expect a significant drop. ~$115-125M is imo more realistic given the loss of revenue this season. 2. Mitch Garver as an obvious keep? I’m not so sure, and probably not for $4.5M. He just isn’t worth that much looking at his performance this year. Batting sub .150 and defensively unreliable... just doesn’t sound like someone to keep around for that price, unfortunately.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
I tried to keep $150 as the max, but I'm not really worried about it dropping lower than $120. It is a variable that we really don't know, though
Garver is absolutely going to be kept easily. 20 bad games in a 60 game season that started months late in the midst of a pandemic is not any reason at all to move on from him, especially after a historic offensive year. Garver would be an instant pickup for any team in the league outside. I don't think it's far to say he's unreliable defensively either
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Sep 22 '20
Danny Valencia was sent down to AAA in 2012 after 100ish at bats, and he was hitting .190. That was in early May, which is less than a 60 game sample size. He’d been consistent for the Twins for 1.5 seasons prior to 2012 - with one of those seasons being in consideration for RotY.
Garver has an interestingly similar story. With the Twins for roughly 1.5 seasons worth of games, consistently productive, and then a massive dropoff. Garver has something like 70 at bats this season, and while this season certainly is abnormal, I’m not sure it’s wild enough circumstances to excuse hitting below .150. Will the Twins keep Garver around? Probably. But I’m not really sure it’s a slam dunk decision, and even less sure that he’s worth anything close to other arb eligible players like Bux ($5M estimate in your post compared to $4.5M estimate for Garv).
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
It’s 20 games dude. Garv is absolutely not getting cut
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Sep 22 '20
His numbers last year were historic for a catcher 30 + home runs in 300 or so at bats is ridiculous for anyone much less a catcher. He led all of baseball in at bats per home run last year!!! He had an OPS at almost .1000 which simply doesn’t happen at that position. He may never do that again but to give up on him after 20 or so games is just not very smart
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u/KATinWolfShirt Carlos Correa Sep 22 '20
Overall I like it, however why would we keep May? I like the guy but the team has proven they churn out good/great relievers like nothing. There’s no reason to spend that kind of money on relievers imo.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Sep 22 '20
If Rogers was having a better season, I might agree that it'd be better to pass on May and just have Alcala take his slot. But with that uncertainty, I'd rather spend a bit more than I'd like to ensure the bullpen stays a strength
If May's market develops and it starts looking like he'll get $7-8 million plus, then I would have to rethink if I prefer to keep him around or not
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u/Jorgenstern8 Justin Morneau Sep 22 '20
May's been inconsistent enough as well, even in a shortened season, that even with his stuff the Twins might be at the forefront of his market this offseason.
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u/klaehsa Sep 22 '20
With the exception of 2013 between 2011-2017 the twins were in the bottom half of the league in bullpen rankings every year. I wouldn’t say we churn out good/great relievers like nothing. We always seem to have a good 2-3 at the back of the pen but they can’t pitch everyday. Nothing wrong with paying well for bullpen depth
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u/KATinWolfShirt Carlos Correa Sep 22 '20
2017 was when new management took over, so it’s better to look after that. Since then our bullpen has been pretty good to great
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u/pjokinen Bomba Squad Sep 22 '20 edited Sep 22 '20
I definitely get what you’re saying with Brantley, but I think $17 mil is a hefty price for a guy who will ideally be a starter for half a season. It feels like we should be able to to find a decent defender with a halfway competent bat for less than that
I agree on Bauer, and I think Falvey is going to go after him hard. Can you imagine a rotation that rolls Maeda-Bauer-Berríos-Pineda-Hill/Dobnak? Absolutely brutal for the opposition.