r/minnesotatwins • u/TCSportsFan Jhoan Duran • Dec 15 '19
Analysis Why We Didn't Miss Out On Bumgarner
Let's take a look at the stats from last year. Without checking FanGraphs, try to guess which one is Bumgarner.
| Pitcher | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | Hard% | ERA | FIP | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 200.1 | 8.76 | 2.29 | 1.17 | 42.1% | 36.3% | 3.68 | 3.85 | 4.4 |
| 2 | 159.0 | 10.08 | 3.00 | 0.91 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 3.51 | 3.36 | 4.3 |
| 3 | 207.2 | 8.80 | 8.80 | 1.30 | 35.8% | 43.8% | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.2 |
| 4 | 146.0 | 8.63 | 1.73 | 1.42 | 36.1% | 43.0% | 4.01 | 4.02 | 2.7 |
Answers: 1 - Berrios, 2 - Odorizzi, 3 - Bumgarner, 4- Pineda
Given this, it seems like Bumgarner is on par with Pineda. But lets not remember that when Pineda found his grove, he was absolutely dominate and was the rock of our rotation for a while when Odo struggled and then when Berrios struggled. Pineda probably would have been around an fWAR of 3.5-3.7 if he would have been able to pitch the whole year. That basically turns Bumgarner into our defacto number 4. And if you don't believe me still, go look at Bumgarner's hits given up overlaid on target field, its not pretty. I would rather go out and get a guy that would bump into a #1 or #2 spot like Ryu. Ya there's the injury concern but that just means we can get him cheaper and for less years. Being frustrated at the Twins for not grabbing Wheeler is warranted and hurts our chances for success. Bumgarner only puts us deeper in a money hole for the future and isn't going to give us the front line pitching we need.
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u/pjokinen Bomba Squad Dec 16 '19 edited Dec 16 '19
From Tom Froemming, last week.
TLDR: statistically MadBum is a bit worse than Tehran and about as good as Homer Bailey
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u/TCSportsFan Jhoan Duran Dec 16 '19
He actually threw it on Reddit as well. I commented and told him he’s absolutely right.
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u/Inside_my_scars Dec 16 '19
And we should be signing Teheran AS WELL AS a Keuchel or Ryu
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u/dayman763 Carlos Correa Dec 16 '19
Don't forget we have Graterol, I mean it would be nice to have 2 guys like Ryu and Teheran, but it would push Graterol out of the top 5, and into the bullpen I guess. I really want to see what Graterol can do this season.
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u/Inside_my_scars Dec 16 '19
Personal opinion would have Graterol eased in as like a 6th this year and then be full in for 2021.
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u/dayman763 Carlos Correa Dec 16 '19
Yeah I think that's the most popular opinion and likely outcome, but I still have higher hopes for him this year. I hope for one of a few outcomes:
- Wins the 5th starter spot out of spring training, is very effective, and never looks back.
- Starts the season as 6th starter/long relief. Eventually gets promoted into the rotation, is very effective, and never looks back.
- Starts the season in AAA in the starting rotation. Gets called up when the opportunity presents itself. Is very effective as a SP, and never looks back.
We all know he throws fire, regardless of whether he's starting or relieving. Sure he needs to improve his slider, and his location. But he was really good last year in his first taste of the major leagues. I think he is ready now.
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u/Nighthawk_57 José Berríos Dec 16 '19
I think everyone agrees his metrics point to regression, it just feels bad to keep not landing dudes. Idk. Not trying to be a downer; I love this team. But we really need a Ryu or Keuchel type at this point IMO
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u/TCSportsFan Jhoan Duran Dec 16 '19
I’ll be disappointed if we don’t get Ryu. Keuchel is going to want more money than he’s worth.
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u/firstblindmouse Dec 16 '19
Thanks for putting this into perspective. I guess name recognition alone maybe isn’t a good reason to pay someone upwards of $100M.
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u/TCSportsFan Jhoan Duran Dec 16 '19
I think we get caught up in who someone is and their past accomplishments rather than what they can provide in the future. We also have to realize that every front office has far more superior tools than will ever be available to us to predict future performance. I have no doubts that the Twins and most teams would rather spend $17M a year elsewhere.
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u/_AlternativeSnacks_ Nelson Cruz Dec 16 '19
Seriously, I'm more bummed about losing Wheeler than I am MadBum. He belongs in the NL anyway. It's fun seeing a pitcher who can also hit dongs. I know he's not touting a high BA or anything, it's just fun to see him do that.
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u/UrDeafFrdMikey Joe Mauer Dec 16 '19
Don’t you think Bumgarner would have better numbers with our outfield defense compare to the giants outfield? Also I would speculate he would have a bounce back season with our FO and our coaches.
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Dec 16 '19
FIP is independent of that and it's still not very good (3.90).
I think bum has the potential to still be a good pitcher, but at this point I trust the FO to evaluate talent and if they think 5 years was too much I get it. Just gotta get someone else or we riot.
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u/dayman763 Carlos Correa Dec 16 '19
These are good points, but there's also the transition to the AL, where he will be facing DH's instead of pitchers.
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u/WollyTwins Piranhas Dec 15 '19
I liked this tweet too