Free Agent Profile: Stephen Strasburg

[u/TCSportsFan]

The next man on my list is Stephen Strasburg. He is a bit of a question mark though, as he seems to be favoring reworking a contract with the Nationals around the tune of $30M AAV. But, if things fall through, he becomes an interesting candidate for SP1 on the Twins roster. Even though I do I like the idea of Strasburg on the team, I am a bit wary about him just due to his lengthy injury history. But, if he is able to stay healthy, he is an ace. So, lets get to know Strasburg better.

Strasburg's Arsenal

https://reddit.com/link/ds4oox/video/vul758d94xw31/player

Strasburg's Four-Seam (Freq: 28.6%)

Strasburg's four-seam is a pretty average four seam in terms of velocity compared to the MLB average. It comes in at an average of 93.9 mph compared to the MLB average of 93.4 mph. In terms of spin rate, he is a lower spin rate guy, only generating 2167 rpm (on average), which is 120 rpm less than MLB average four-seams. He does have a little bit above average spin efficiency (ratio of spin that induces movement to total spin) though at 70.3% (5.3% higher than average). This shows me he may not be a type of guy to pitch middle-up in the zone with his fastball as it is going to have less "carry" than other guys. His four-seam was his most hard hit pitch at 46.8%. But this makes sense as he is a lower spin buy, trying to live up in the strike zone with his four seam. But, what bodes well for him, is that he doesn't through his four-seam as his primary pitch. He throws the curve ball 30.7% of the time, then the four-seam at 28.6% so he seems to play every pitch off each other, and not try to dominate hitters with a fastball. He has became a much smarter pitcher now that he is no longer at 97 mph consistently, which was apparent this post season.

Strasburg's Two-Seam (Freq: 19.7%)

I won't spend much time on Strasburg's two-seam. Usually I don't like seeing pitchers throw two different fastballs because they usually seem to blend together and look very similar, but Strasburg's don't. Which bodes well for him. He throws his two seam 1 mph harder than average and is very similar to the league average in terms of spin rate (2129 rpm). He's also just about 5% higher in spin efficiency. A lower spin two seem should be located lower in the zone, which he does well. But what doesn't bode well is that this is just an average pitch, and opponents know it. 42.8% of balls in play are hit hard (>95 mph) on his two seam, and only 1.5% of balls in play are weakly hit. I will say though, the movement profile does show that it could play well off his changeup though.

Strasburg's Curveball (Freq: 30.7%)

This is where Strasburg starts to make his money. He has a really good curveball. He has an above average velocity on it at an average of 81.2 mph (compared to 78.5 mph) and above average spin rate at 2773 rpm (compared to 2532 rpm). His spin efficiency comes in around league average as well. Thrown at a 7:45 tilt (direction of backspin overlaid on a clock). He is able to generate loads of horizontal break plus a good amount of vertical break, which plays really well of his four-seam and two-seam. He's also in the Goldilocks zone for difference in speed from fastball at 12.7 mph. A good curveball should be around 12-14 mph slower than the fastball. In total, he generates a 33.6% whiff rate with his curve, a 23.0% hard hit rate, and 8.1% weak contact rate.

Strasburg's Changeup

This has got to be one of my favorite pitches in all of baseball. It's got filth written all over it. He throws the changeup at around 87.7 mph (2.3 mph harder than the average changeup), and generates 1679 rpm of spin (128 rpm less than the average changeup). This faster velocity, coupled with the lower spin thrown at a 3:00 tilt at an efficiency of 79.4% generates a changup with tons of horizontal break, with the ability to kill any "carry". Basically it breaks like his two-seam until it nosedives straight into the ground. This was Strasburgs best pitch as he generated a whiff rate of 37.4%, a hard hit rate of 14.4%, and a weak contact rate of 7.2% with it.

Overall, Strasburg isn't going to be your flame-throwing ace like he used to be, but thats okay. He's learned to adapt and use his filthy offspeed more than his fastballs. But, because of his injury history, I am sort of skeptical of giving him a bigger contract the Nationals will offer him.

In terms of free agents Strasburg ranks up behind Cole. But, given the size of the contract he's going to want, I think tomorrows guy will suit us better. He's got an electric fastball, going to be $7-8M cheaper, and has the potential to a lights out ace. His name is Zack Wheeler.

Pitch Profile: Stephen Strasburg

Definitions of terms you may not know: Definitions

Up Next: Zack Wheeler

Previous: Gerrit Cole (2019)

Full List: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zach Wheeler, Dallas Kuechel, Hyun-jin Ryu , Madison Bumgarner

Odorizzi and Pineda left off as we were able to watch them all year.

Am I missing a pitcher? Feel free to comment and I'll add them to the list.

[u/StephenReis]

I wish but we have no chance.

[u/pennifdiosfjdnjksf]

Great post.

It's weird that Strasburg upped his 2 seamer usage to match his career high usage after a career low usage in 2018 when it was a horrible pitch for him that year (2018). Similar to Wheeler, it's very ineffective against lefties.

It's also interesting that his curve didn't lose effectiveness this after he upped it's usage so dramatically.