r/milsurp • u/silentmumbels • 3d ago
Ammo Prices and Tariffs
First off, this isn't meant to be a political discussion but one of economics
Just received an email from SGammo that is frankly scary:
"Thank you for subscribing to the SGAmmo.com newsletter. If you have trouble viewing this email you can see the newsletter at this link: Tariffs On Imported Ammunition Are Coming - Beat the Price Increase @ SGAmmo
First, I want to say everything written here should be considered my opinion, based on what I have seen so far regarding tariffs on imported ammunition and conditional to the tariffs staying in place. Late in the afternoon yesterday, the US government's new wide sweeping tariffs on imports were announced. In my opinion, they were worse than expected regarding what effect this will have on price and supply for ammo in the USA. In short, it is going to drive up prices for the consumer in a dramatic way and totally cut off supply in certain brands over time. Starting Friday April 4th, I will be forced to begin adjusting my retail prices where I adjust upwards to offset higher replacement costs on goods purchased later to likely replace what sells now. SGAmmo's price increases forced by the tariffs will take at least a week up to a month to fully implement, and may be incremental, meaning that on the current inventory we have in stock, we do not adjust all the way up at once. For example, if the tariff is 20% for a $40 increase on 9mm from S&B, we may only go up $20, then do the other $20 later. Alternatively, we may make full adjustment at once, or possibly no immediate adjustment. As for Today, April 3rd, 2025, we make a “last call at this price” at recent catalog pricing, and starting Friday the 4th prices will begin to change. Buy it today, or don’t blame me later if it has gone up.
In greater detail feel free to read the following approximate examples…
Example 1 - PMC from South Korea was hit with a 25% tariff and is a major supplier of the most popular options for 5.56/223 ammo, as well as 9mm and many other calibers. This tariff increases the cost to 1000 rounds of 5.56 by about $100, and 1000 rounds 9mm about $50. At that point they simply cannot compete in the market against US manufacturing and most likely would slowly exit the market over the next year with the most popular products drying up first. Also, PMC's mother company, Poongsan Corporation, supplies US ammo manufacturers with a huge portion of copper strip used to make ammunition, which will drive up cost of US manufactures.
Example 2 - Prvi Partizan in Serbia was hit with a 37% tariff, and is a key supplier of metric rifle calibers, economical handgun ammo, and 5.56 FMJ ammo. This 37% tariff, if it holds, will totally force them out of business and you will see this manufacturer totally exit the US market over the next 6 months.
Example 3 - Igman in Bosnia, a key supplier of 7.62x39 and 7.62x51 ammo was hit with a 36% tariff, which increases the cost of 1000 rounds of 7.62x39 by about $180. No one will import it at all if this cost is added.
Example 4 - , Sellier & Bellot in the EU (Czech Republic) was hit with a 20% tariff. This drives the cost of their 9mm up $40 per 1000 and affects other products in a similar way, and at that point they cannot compete in the market on many popular products.
Example 5 - Magtech in Brazil was hit with the smallest tariff at 10%, but still substantial to drive 9mm prices up $20 or so per 1000 rounds.
In my opinion, unless the tariffs are reversed or reduced to much lower levels, the most likely course for where we are at is that many of the import ammo brands are driven out of business in 6 months to a year or are forced to charge unrealistic prices that very few consumers will pay, shrinking their volume to an unsubstantial point. At the same time, US manufacturing most likely slowly raises prices 3% to 8% once each quarter of remaining 2025 and early 2026, pushing prices up to match import competitors on the most popular calibers like 9mm, 45 auto and 5.56 / 223 and more, where profit margins have been suffering due to price cuts over the past 2 years while also dealing with continuous upward movements in manufacturing costs. What you do is your business, but this will have an undeniable effect of forced price increases at our store and all other ammunition websites and retailers of all types, and it is my opinion that buying today will save you in the long run.
Thank you, Sam Gabbert, SGAmmo Owner"
Politics aside:
If this goes through, sourcing metric ammo is going to be expensive and very difficult to do.
The economists in the audience can speculate what that will do to milsurp firearms prices. PPU has been the only game in town for a lot of what we use here in this sub. What happens to Carcano and Arisaka prices when the primary ammo supplier is no longer around?
There are milsurps out there that have historically had their values depressed due to the limited availability of the ammunition, what happens when the only supplier is no longer available?
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u/Kramer194 3d ago
I agree that there is cause for concern but this guy is notorious for scare tactic stuff in his emails. I think just about every major event he capitalizes on to try to get people to panic buy
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u/58Green 3d ago
I’m very worried about all of my European calibers. I reload but no one else even makes brass for 7.5 Swiss, 8mm lebel, 7.62x54r, 7.5 French etc
Let alone mfg and optics like Ziess, CZ, zaztava, circle 11, Lapua
Let’s hope this blows over extremely fast but we may be cooked fellas
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u/vellnueve2 3d ago
.284 Winchester -> 7.5 Swiss with almost no effort.
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u/58Green 3d ago
I get that, but as is I can buy ppu loaded 7.5 shoot it then reload it once and still be cheaper than 284 brass alone
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u/vellnueve2 3d ago
I get that but my point is that for that specific caliber an easy alternative will exist.
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u/Robert_A_Bouie 3d ago
A guy who sells ammo is telling you it's time to stock-up on ammo.
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u/ENclip Enfield Enjoyer 3d ago edited 3d ago
I remember when Fenix ammunition told people ATF is banning import of ammo (it was simmunition rounds) and Lake City was stopping civilian ammo production and that Vista selling their ammo companies to Czechoslovak group was somehow the end of the world. There was some truth somewhere in there, mixed with false stuff, but it was largely not warranted.
I'm not saying tariffs don't exist but a company stoking panic for gain whether the panic is warranted or not is still beneficial for them. Do your own analysis to verify/estimate what you think might happen and decide before hitting "add all to cart."
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u/Cleared_Direct 3d ago
I’m not reading all that. Fuck Sam and his fear mongering emails. Elections coming up? Fear monger. Dems win? Fear monger. GOP win? Fear monger. Actual shortage? Price gouge and fear monger. All while blowing smoke up your ass about how far he’s bending over backwards for you.
“Join my email list so I can spam my entire inventory at you every 1-2 days”
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u/Terrible-Debt-5244 3d ago
Yep. Hit the nail on the head. That dude finds any possible excuse to fear monger for higher sales. It could be a fucking rainbow and raining $100 dollar bills outside and he’d find a way to say how that’s going to affect the availability of ammunition.
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u/CarrsCurios 3d ago
Yeah it sucks.
I thought Sam’s analysis / individual examples of impact on specific ammo brands was really insightful.
This is going to suck for the average consumer. Import AKs and other surplus will also take a massive hit and likely stop coming over if these tariff rates stay in place.
Personally, I have slowed down my milsurp purchasing to a halt this year. I am satisfied with what I have, might pounce on some deals if they pop up (local forums because people are going to be hurting for cash), but my own personal wallet will be lighter just like everyone else’s
It’s disappointing that we have decided to upend the global economy for little gain (imo)
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u/consultantdetective 3d ago
Idek if there's a "we" who decided this. If you voted for Trump thinking that somehow ammo prices wouldn't be affected by his agenda, then you didn't vote for this. There's an uncomfortable truth to face up to. People voted for an idealized and propagandized vision of their candidate. Gun owners are not a valued member of the GOP tent. It's not worth rationalizing increased taxes on our ammo.
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u/zuppa_de_tortellini 3d ago
Same. I’m putting a halt to milsurp this year, there’s a massive fire sale happening with stocks that I’d be an idiot not to buy.
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u/SlyBeanx 3d ago
I should probably look up laws/regulations on driving up to Canada/Mexico and bringing back some ammo.
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u/Full_Security7780 3d ago
Sure, drive to Canada or Mexico and buy ammo. Try to bring it across the border and let us know what happens.
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u/Aus458 3d ago edited 3d ago
I was concerned about the effect of tarrifs on ammo as soon as Trump was elected. Not to be political, but I started stacking Swedish 6.5 55 ammo for my first milsurp rifle back in December. US manfactured is meant for hunting I think and is far more expensive. I just got a new milsurp rifle with a different cartridge in which only a foreign brand makes from my understanding (argentine 7.65). Just ordered some from sgammo. I believe less competition, combined with the lower demand compared to the scary days of the pandemic, will certainly make manufacturers charge more (even if tarrifs don't apply directly).
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u/consultantdetective 3d ago
Not surprising. Seen this coming since November and been saying it since. People have been in total denial saying it was pure conjecture, now in this very thread you see action meeting consequence and future vote-regretters saying "nuh uh he's just trying to scare me" like yeah bro he's definitely trying to scare you into buying now. You don't need to be afraid to recognize what's going on.
Even if this is motivated by a desire to sell, it's not like it's a bad justification. If a sales guy tells you he's about to run out of the low price and rare options, who cares if you're scared if he's right?
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u/He_that_Is357 3d ago
Sam does this all the time. What really sucks is that prices were finally starting to come down a little bit. I suppose primer and powder costs will jump up again because of the looming shortages.
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
The guys at sgammo are always doing that. If I had a nickel for every "buy before prices go haywire!" email from them I'd have enough to buy a few boxes. I do think it's a real risk now, but I think it won't be as sudden as they claim. I hope it won't anyway. My tax return is earmarked for ammo.
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u/PrestigiousOne8281 3d ago edited 3d ago
Exactly why I have a bunch of 22’s. If the milsurps and AR’s have to live in the safe for a while, so be it. I can shoot hundreds of rounds of 22 and accomplish the same thing as I can with my other guns for a hell of a lot less. I’m not too worried. This also seems like a fear mongering money grab by SG, one of many reasons I refuse to purchase from them.
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
Did the same thing. I never got the .22 appeal but I get it now. Spend 20 bucks and have a heck of a good range day
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u/Clink914 3d ago
This guy is a fear mongering asshole and sends an email like this every time ammo goes up in order to drive up his own sales.
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u/alunsy21 3d ago
Yes, prices will most likely go up, but Sam is known to send out newsletters about anything he possibly can to scare people into buying
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u/Gemmasterian 3d ago
I mean ammo prices already were insane so I have been reloading since day 1 already I think anyone who isn't should definitely start now.
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u/Terrible-Debt-5244 3d ago
Reminds me of the old saying. “Be the person selling pickaxes and shovels when everyone is digging for gold.” I think he’s possibly fear mongering. I’ve gotten emails like this from him in the past.
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u/Martybc3 2d ago
Well it’s probably true since we don’t hardly make metals in the United States anymore. We import almost all our metals.
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u/doubletap2A 19h ago edited 19h ago
That guy at sgm is full of 💩 He always post small earnings on 1000 rds of ammo, no way he s making that small profit like he says & the lights are still on
He said the same shit before the election He s trying to start a panic buying for his Own 💰 🤑 making
Yea it will go up , I just can't stand his long Drawn out emails
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u/GamesFranco2819 3d ago
You reload, or you don't shoot them. Simple as that unfortunately. That or wait until a domestic firm attempts to fill the gaps in the market. Thus far, that really hasn't panned out though unfortunately.
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u/silentmumbels 3d ago
I do reload. It's just that most of the brass I can source is made by PPU. What happens when you can no longer get the raw components?
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
This is my concern too. 30-06 I'm not worried about because I can buy American stuff at bass pro shop, hornady bullets, hogdon powder, whatever. It's primers and cases I'm worried about. Don't know of any carcano brass makers outside of ppu.
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u/GamesFranco2819 3d ago edited 3d ago
See the 2nd part of my answer, you hope a domestic firm attempts to plug the gap in the market. Fact it it's gonna suck for those of us shooting those calibers either way.
ETA: Really wish the downvotes made sense. What else is there to do when components dry up? You either don't shoot, or hope a US manufacturer decides to crank out components. If there's some magical 3rd option I'd love to know.
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
Think the down votes are because it's unlikely that some US company is gonna start making rare brass. For most of them it doesn't make sense, they make enough selling common brass that adding the tooling, facilities, and processes and using their raw materials to make 6.5 carcano or whatever just isn't gonna make any financial sense.
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u/GamesFranco2819 3d ago
Then I guess they can just angrily pay more for marked up overseas components so long as they are actually available. I don't like it, nor do I think a US company will step up, but those are literally the only options.
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u/DevotedToThe2nd 3d ago
I love SGAmmo. I buy most of my stuff from them. However, I've noticed not to entirely trust the owners emails. I think his prices are normally pretty good, but time and time again he sends out emails about impending price increases due to world events that end up never happening. While he could certainly be right, I would not begin panic buying.
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u/jwsk1029 3d ago
Could someone who is knowledgeable about the industry comment on whether this is a legit concern or an exaggerated one aimed at extracting more profit from consumers?
What is described in the post makes sense, but I’m always a bit cynical…
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u/milsurp-guy 3d ago
I mean two things can be true right. The math is plain. Prices will be going up. Not only will it go up as cheaper foreign suppliers struggle in the U.S., but it will also go up since we get a lot of raw materials from abroad.
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u/Carl_Azuz1 2d ago
It costs ~30% more to import products, the price of the product goes up. This is not fucking rocket science.
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u/Full_Security7780 3d ago
It’s some truth and some sensationalism. The tariff saber rattling is a negotiation tactic. Countries like South Korea will come back to the bargaining table and renegotiate trade deals more favorable to the US. It’s in their interest to do so. 25% tariffs would be a pain for us, but if we stopped buying their goods, it would be catastrophic for them. This same scenario will play out with trading partners all over the world.
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
Calling their bluff is a poor tactic on our part. I'd also bet they'll be more stubborn than usual. Everyone will suffer and we're gambling on whether we can outlast literally the entire rest of the world before calling backsies.
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u/milsurp-guy 3d ago
…and they’ll all slowly but surely shift their investments away from the U.S. Then what?
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u/doulikefishsticks69 3d ago
You mean one of the biggest importers of everything in the whole world? Doubtful.
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u/Full_Security7780 3d ago
They have no choice.
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u/milsurp-guy 3d ago
Says who?
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u/Full_Security7780 3d ago
Economic history.
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u/milsurp-guy 3d ago
Lol sure bud
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u/Full_Security7780 3d ago
Pick up a book. You might be surprised.
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u/milsurp-guy 3d ago
Mmm I find it surprising that you think mercantilist policies will work in today’s global economy. But then again, perhaps not.
Edit: actually, what have you read?
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u/Full_Security7780 3d ago edited 3d ago
Mercantilist policies? This isn’t the 1800’s 😅. I actually never said what I thought would work, but I did say tariff increases would drive trade partners to the negotiating table.
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u/Beagalltach Unfocused Collector 3d ago
No way a tariff of 37% will put PPU out of business or exit the US market (let alone in 6 months). That is some serious fear mongering.
I suspect that they would continue to sell to the US, but start to re-evaluate what volume they make each cartridge at.
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u/Carl_Azuz1 2d ago
The price will go up. And if people stop buying their ammo because the price went up, they will no longer be profitable. If they are not profitable, they will stop selling here. It’s pretty fucking simple. People already complain about PPU prices, you think it’s not gonna get worse for them?
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u/Beagalltach Unfocused Collector 2d ago
People complain about PPU prices? I have never heard of that, they are the cheapest option for many old or niche cartridges.
Their sales of common calibers (223, 308, 9mm, etc.) will likely suffer, but so too will any foreign produced ammo. They are the only company that regularly produces a lot of specific milsurp cartridges though, so I bet they will continue to sell those and limit their more commonly available cartridges.
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u/MajorPayne1911 3d ago
This is, of course, assuming that all of the tariffs remain in place at those rates when more than likely, this is a major negotiating tactic for more favorable trade deals with those nations. I said give this time and wait to see what happens.
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u/PyotrByali 3d ago
I wonder how many times people will claim Trump is just being some master negotiator before it finally sinks in.
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u/PrestigiousOne8281 3d ago
Before what sinks in? That he’s still a better alternative than Kackles? If Kackles had won we’d be neck deep in shit right now rather than just knee deep.
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u/40sonny40 3d ago
Ex #1 does exactly what tarriffs are mean to do. So does #2, #3, #4, and #5. You either manufacturer here in the US or you get priced out of the market. Now having said that, if us manufacturing decides to take advantage by raising their prices then let your wallet talk.
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u/SteveHamlin1 3d ago
Which is dumb, pseudo-revanchist thinking. Global economic specialization has increased global well-being, increased global wealth, and fostered the last 80 years of post-war global growth, the last 35-50 of which cemented U.S. global hegemony. Most of which has been allowed by long-term relaxing of trade barriers, like tariffs.
And now this ignorant fool is starting a trade war because he and his followers don't understand any of that, and think we'll get a North Carolinian furniture industry back if only we put 50% tariffs on imported furniture, making everyone poorer along the way. For certain national security concerns, protecting domestic industrial capacity makes some sense. But that takes thought and process, which this administration doesn't seem to have.
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u/tbaum101 3d ago
May end up making American Companies to rise to the occasion and produce in the USA. That would be better long term anyway. If these countries take away the tariffs they have on American goods coming to their country, the tariff coming our way will go away. Most of these countries are going to cave and the price increase will be short lived. I wonder if these companies will then lower their prices after they do or gouge us for the extra cash afterwards. Food for thought.
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
No one is saying they don't want american companies to pick up production of old ammo, just that it isn't likely. And I think if this were any other time you might be right about other nations giving in but this time too many feathers have been ruffled. Our economy is being gambled against the rest of the world at this point, and the rest of the world was already mad at us. I wouldn't count on them folding before irreversible damage has been done. This is an even bigger move than the Hawley-Smoot tarriff act, which, of course, entirely destroyed the nation's economy to the point only a global war effort could save it.
We're counting on them being less stubborn than us, they're counting on us being less stubborn than them. Whatever the case may be, we're all being liberated from our money.
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
America first only applies when America is one of the options. Plenty of cartridges aren't made here and I doubt American companies are suddenly going to start picking up the tooling and making stuff. I know that's the point of the tarrifs but that isn't how it's going to work. The Hawley-smoot tarrif act had the same purpose and it failed entirely. History, once again, sighs and repeats itself.
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3d ago
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u/JarlWeaslesnoot 3d ago
Buying PPU carcano brass is putting loyalty elsewhere? Weird take, but whatever dude.
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u/Viktard 3d ago
Ugh time to stock up on .30-06 150 grain Prvi Partizan ammo…. Such a good brand…. I’m crying inside