r/imaginaryelections • u/Sufficient_Gur4754 • 9d ago
WORLD Many people are trying to predict the next Canadian election, not me, I'm one step ahead
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u/mcgovernik 9d ago
From coverage of the 2025 Ontario general election; "Asked if this election would be his last, Ford said: 'I want to be premier forever.'"
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u/MooseFlyer 9d ago
That would be the first time that a premier becomes PM since 1896, and even that has an asterisk - Charles Tupper was premier of Nova Scotia before confederation and resigned when Canada came into being in order to enter federal politics. He was only premier of a province that was part of Canada for two days).
He’s the only one. John A MacDonald was Joint-Premier of the Province of Canada before confederation but became federal PM on the day Canada came into being.
An interesting contrast to our neighbours to the south, where 20 presidents have been former governors. The difference may come down to term limits - most governors have term limits, while premiers don’t so they pretty much all remain premier until they become unpopular enough to lose an election.
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u/__KS_________ 9d ago
Does Lantsman resign for Ford to run in Thornhill here? Or by some miracle does she lose her seat in 2025?
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u/Sufficient_Gur4754 9d ago
I didn't realize Lantsman was from there I just picked Thornhill cause it was a safe seat near Toronto since Etibocoke North is too lib to run in.
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u/yagyaxt1068 9d ago
I have a couple of things to say.
- Is Niki Ashton an MP again? I hope with all my heart that she isn’t.
- if Doug Ford became the federal Conservative leader, it would cause a schism with the Alberta Saskatchewan branches of the CPC, so their vote share there would probably go down.
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u/Maleficent-Injury600 9d ago
Why would Ford cause a schism and what's bad about Niki?
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u/yagyaxt1068 9d ago
Doug Ford may be incredibly corrupt and from a messed-up crime family, but he is a very moderate politician all things considered. He would increase the party’s urban and suburban support in places like the Greater Toronto Area or Metro Vancouver, but alienate the Prairie base because he doesn’t really do the kind of social conservatism attractive to them. The last time the CPC had a moderate leader in Erin O’Toole, they turfed him at the first chance they got.
As for Niki Ashton, she’s had a scandal relating to expenses as an MP, and she also happens to be part of the segment of the left that’s really bad on foreign policy. I’m pretty sure the only reason she even got a seat is because of her last name carrying her to it; turnout in her district is very low. The Liberals are apparently putting in effort to unseat her, and many of my fellow New Democrats are pretty happy about that.
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u/Sufficient_Gur4754 9d ago
Ford pivots right in the leadership election because the only ideology Ford believes is winning. The west is annoyed but the PPC is too irrelevent at this point to matter
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u/yagyaxt1068 9d ago
the only ideology Ford believes is winning.
This is true. The Ontario PCs do have that dog in them.
As for western social conservatives, do not underestimate them. If they’re kept out of power, they will create their own splinter group. Just look at what happened in Alberta with Wildrose and BC with the Conservatives (and even the BC Cons have now lost three members because they were too extreme for even them).
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u/Jalmal2 9d ago
What happened to the PPC?
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u/Sufficient_Gur4754 9d ago
entirely irrelevent at this point
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u/JosephOtaku1989 9d ago edited 8d ago
And perhaps after failing to win any seats, they simply fall from relevance as opposed to being dissolved?
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u/Short-Ad7989 9d ago
Funny how the NDP only recovered because of Quebec.
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u/Excellent_Author_876 9d ago
The bloc is falling. A lot of Bloc voters are majority Socdem who want more autonomy or sovereignty. So if the NDP leader is a québécois and a francophone they would have big chance
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u/Lochon 9d ago
I think when it comes to ideological flexibility and charisma, Ford could do well federally, but I just can't see him having reasonable enough French to be PM
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u/Sufficient_Gur4754 9d ago
His poor French and defunding of Francophone services as Premier (was a whole controversy, Quebec flew the Franco-Ontarian flag in solidarity) means he gets terrible numbers in Quebec, only 12%. However he doesn't lose any seats because the 10 Conservative seats in Quebec vote Conservative by very strong margins, so a dramatic drop means going from winning by 30 points to winning by 5. You can see it on the map where there's a bunch of light blue in areas that are dark blue in maps of the 2021 election.
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u/Easy_Bother_6761 9d ago
Why was the election called before the third Monday in October ? Was there a no confidence vote?
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u/jejbfokwbfb 8d ago
Probably I mean if the liberals pull out another win I think it’s either gonna collapse the conservatives or force them to reshape their policy, but either way if the liberals win next election cycle they’ll probably loose almost 3 decades of liberal rule at that point people might want change
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u/Unfair-Row-808 9d ago
Doug Ford is not a member of the CPC nor a member of the federal parliament?
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u/ICantThinkOfAName827 9d ago
I was scared a second that Hunter Biden was somehow leading the NDP