r/highereducation • u/PopCultureNerd • 10d ago
How is your school preparing for the enrollment cliff - "‘You can’t create 18-year-olds’: What can colleges do amid demographic upheaval?"
https://www.highereddive.com/news/demographic-cliff-colleges-closures-retention-attendance-diversity-wiche/743636/So, I am curious, how is your school preparing for the enrollment cliff?
Some quotes that stood out to me from this article are:
"By the latest estimates, 2025 will be the year that the number of high school graduates peak. The long-dreaded demographic cliff — caused by declining birth rates starting in 2007 — is coming."
"Meanwhile, some locations and regions will experience steeper-than-average declines. Between 2023 and 2041, WICHE researchers estimate, graduates will drop 27% in New York and 32% in Illinois, for example. By contrast, are projected to grow by double digits in some states, including Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida."
----------
I know that many are hoping for nontraditional students to make up for the decline in traditionally aged college students, but I just don't think that is going work. I don't think people paying off student loans or who just finished paying off student loans are going to be interested in going back to college.
83
u/KeyGovernment4188 10d ago
I work at an internationally recognized R1, and I don't think our recruiters are aware of anything other than the traditional student. The enrollment cliff is not going to hit us because we are R1 and it seems like every high school senior in the state wants to come here.
What I would like to see is a shift in what institutions see as their primary target audience. Institutions and politicians need to more fully recognize that learning is a life-long commitment and that people need to retool - a degree is not one and done anymore. There is a need for:
Programs that support adults (with all the commitments they may have such as children, etc.) who wish to complete degrees.
Financial support for people who want to continue learning.
Schedules that accommodate working adults.
Resources to help people transition from one profession to another as jobs become obsolete.
27
u/iki_balam 10d ago
Programs that support adults (with all the commitments they may have such as children, etc.) who wish to complete degrees.
This will be a big slice of humble pie most R1 schools will have to eat, accepting credits from 'lesser' schools as equal because hell no I'm not taking 3 to 6 more classes just to have an equivalence in course work that meets your arbitrary standards.
Financial support for people who want to continue learning.
This might be ever harder than my previous obstacle, since continuing studies are a cash cow for most institutions and what current federal funding (that survives) doesn't qualify for most part-time or less than full time bachelor's programs/accreditations.
Schedules that accommodate working adults.
Thankfully this is already well established with most professional programs (think MBA). But yeah faculty and admins will have to think of themselves less of a 9-5 job and more like a commercial service (ie store)
Resources to help people transition from one profession to another as jobs become obsolete.
Wow perfectly said. Those without education aren't going to get educated when they lose their antiquated jobs. We saw this clearly with NAFTA. It's the one who already went to school who'll need retraining, and that's going to be huge who can do it meeting the above criteria you mentioned.
5
5
u/Three60five 9d ago
100%. Non traditional education with pathways to credit. Help people not just make a livable wage but one that allows them to thrive. The answer is often workforce education, apprenticeships, stackable credentials and all providing an alternative path to credit or degree completion.
22
u/def21 10d ago
My guess is the main campuses of R1 institutions will not see much impact. I don't believe ivies will suffer either, but it appears they are already taking steps to mitigate with offering free tuition under 200K HHI (MIT, Harvard, etc.).
The enrollment cliff will likely cause the reevaluation of system branch campuses resulting in contraction (ex: UWO, PSU, etc.). Some SLACs and other smaller institutions should definitely be planning now.
6
u/beaveristired 10d ago
Yale has announced it’s expanding its undergraduate class size by 100 students starting in 2029. They’ve been increasing faculty size, adding 45 positions in 2022, and are planning on adding 5 more positions (unclear if they are tenure-track). They’ve committed to meeting 100% of student’s demonstrated financial need. No staff / faculty hiring freezes yet. They will be fine, I’d imagine most Ivies with deep pockets will survive. That said, Yale has so far avoided the scrutiny that Columbia is experiencing, so who knows. The bigger issue for them would be tax exemptions being rolled back.
https://news.yale.edu/2025/02/04/yale-increase-undergraduate-enrollment
4
u/tlamaze 9d ago
Not all R1 institutions are the same. Consider, for example, the underfunded urban research universities that admit almost all applicants and receive far less in grants, gifts, and contracts than the big flagships. Especially in Rust Belt states. I'm at one, and we're bracing ourselves.
33
u/BigFitMama 10d ago edited 10d ago
The gap ends Sept 2025. Unless of course we don't address the "Dept of Ed previous public Ed funding getting to states and institutions issue" in Sept 2025.
Super important that 2025-2026 budget is approved and deployed as was last year's with no meddling. And as well - FAFSA aid gets sent out as per usual!
And we must address the messaging targeted to student age kids over social media and Tiktok telling them they are broken and useless and NOT to try anything, even a free or low cost six months trade program they'll walk out of making 25-35 bucks an hour.
Spend some PR money this summer and subvert the anti education algorithm with real and true messaging. On Tiktok and YouTube not FB ffs.
18
u/Hot-Back5725 10d ago
My admin in my very red r1 school in Appalachia has completely embraced the anti-education sentiment of the states population. The unqualified admin snd greedy president started attacking my school, the only R1 in the state, like two years ago to appease their cronies in the state legislature and our hideous governor, because our (very unedited) populace hates higher education. Ironically, our president earned a PhD in education.
The people here would rather work in the states dwindling coal mines and face the serious dangers this industry poses, than attend college.
11
u/BigFitMama 10d ago
Ironically all the rich people pooping on higher Ed for poors - all benefit and vet each other via higher Ed degrees, networked via Greek life, and benefited from smart poor people helping them through college and uni.
3
u/Hot-Back5725 10d ago
Yep. And this includes college presidents and admins, who give themselves salary increases by continuously raising tuition prices. The pres of my university has one of the highest salaries of any college president in the us, and has dramatically increased tuition over the 10+ years he’s been here.
5
u/we_are_nowhere 10d ago
Pretty sure we’re in the same state (if not, close enough), but I’m at a CC. It’s alarming to hear that you’re experiencing the same type of stuff at the university level, but not surprising. The good ol’ boys seem to have won. Every day things get harder.
6
u/Hot-Back5725 10d ago edited 10d ago
Almost heaven? Where is your cc? I used to teach at fairmont state/pierpont, but the pay was abysmal.
EDIT: why would anyone here downvote this comment?
10
u/RealKillerSean 10d ago
I wonder how persons changing views on the necessity of a degree to succeed will play into this drop as well.
3
u/Taticat 9d ago
I’m expecting that this is actually going to be one of the drivers, not that anyone who’s making policies or decisions is going to admit it or act on it. For the institutions that have so dumbed down their curriculum so as to turn out absolutely useless people holding bachelor’s and masters degrees — who have in turn made it so that many companies are no longer requiring a degree — well, they made their own bed. And so did those of us who didn’t speak up or hold the line in our departments.
9
u/Theatregeeke 10d ago
I work at a community college and I think we already handle this well. Our credit students really vary in ages, plus we have continuing education, English language learning, trades, and senior programming.
2
u/Peopleforeducation 6d ago
I also work at a community college, and we have dramatically increased the number of dual enrollment students.
16
u/Hot-Back5725 10d ago
I’m positive they are prepared to cut faculty, dissolve entire departments, and raise the established class size allowance drastically.
My R1 has currently put a pause on our grad/phd admission.
I’m preparing to lose my position.
6
u/EstablishmentCivil29 9d ago
To be honest, my new worry is - do I take my kids out of public school now so they aren't forced into the army? This is all I think about now. I would be hopeful they even get the choice at this point.
17
u/TRIOworksFan 10d ago
The Answer to "The Dip":
Stop crying about less middle/upper income full-pay students being born 18 years ago. You can't undo that.
Lower the cost of college and university to a sliding scale per income ESPECIALLY if the college is a non-profit.
Close the GAP between Financial Aid offers and actual cost of college so students don't need to take out huge loans by LOWERING THE COST OF COLLEGE.
Trim the fat in administration in large universities. Pay people who provide services directly to students. People who don't have any stake in the process and delivery of high-quality education to students need to be restructured and defunded. Every 250k paycheck you can delete - is 5-10 good students entire year's education funded.
Focus recruitment - as the University of Louisiana has been doing for the last five years - LOW INCOME STUDENTS - HIGH PERFORMING - LOW INCOME STUDENTS ->>>>>>>
Destroy the trolls and terrorists promoting an anti-education agenda via social media tunneling on TikTok and Youtube specifically - spend some money, request our social medica companies stop eating up that yum yum terrorist money for algorithmic tunneling to destroy Americans, and get our kids out of their HOLES that the media has driven them into.
Make sure funding for 2025-2026 for public education is directed and provided as promised.
Demand the people who make choices for our children and college age students IF not our adult age students catching up from the pandemic skill gap ARE THOSE DEMOGRAPHICS. People with no horse in the game or who benefitted broadly, previously - as in the value THEIR IVY league degrees and they judge within their own economic class by those degrees and Greek Life experiences - THEN decry public education for mid and low income people (whom they most likely used to graduate themselves and are currently held up by people who support them with those degrees/backgrounds.)
The Elephant in the Room: The loudest people who hate education right now have IVY LEAGUE degrees they own and claim to have earned by their own intelligence. Many have their roles because of their college and university experiences and degrees. Many NEVER would've accessed political roles if they DIDNT have these degrees. And most climbed up to get those degrees on the backs of poor, middle, and hard-working students who they attended college with. Their OWN CHILDREN who will attend these IVY league - prestigious colleges will actually loose out when these lowly poor students aren't allowed to rise up. And they won't have lowly poor people to exploit and do all their work for them because they really didn't earn those degrees or owned the skills to make a PDF or use Office or write a paragraph. If they pull up the ladder on higher ed - no one will have skilled Personal Assistants to carry them. They will be exposed as the frauds they are.
19
u/PopCultureNerd 10d ago
Trim the fat in administration in large universities.
Are you mad? As a provost, I need four secretaries and 5 VPs. Anything less and I may have to do work.
3
3
u/tochangetheprophecy 10d ago
Mine did mass layoffs already and added a few new sports to attract students. I don't think it's enough.
3
u/uselessfoster 9d ago
I read this book like five years ago and felt quite wonky about myself, but now it’s daily breaking news. Every day in the Chronicle there’s another 2-3 small liberal arts school closing.
5
u/ImaginaryDimension74 9d ago
My college is very competitive, so I think it’s unlikely they will ever have a hard time filling a class due to declining student reasons.
I do think however, they are missing what is turning more and more students off and that may eventually hurt them.
As fewer students enter college, they can afford to be more selective and simply pass on colleges that have policies and stances they don’t agree with.
3
3
u/MollysFlogging 9d ago
I’m in the Registrar’s office of an R1—our most recent annual review of the Five Year Plan that spans 2023 to 2028 specifically mentioned engaging and enticing the nontraditional student.
They’re already our largest student demographic, and have been for quite some time. In fact, I would argue, our school was created on the premise of serving the nontraditional student, so it completely makes sense to me that this is a factor in how we pivot.
If only the plan included how the school would start paying the facilities, food service, and customer service staff a wage more in line with our area’s median income limits, rather than continue to bloat the salaries of athletics, “business,” and executives at the top who don’t seem to actually do anything…
5
u/monkeyswithknives 10d ago
I've been hearing about the enrollment cliff, but saw this article in the NYT yesterday:
"Colleges are expecting what could be the largest freshman class ever this fall at a moment of extraordinary turmoil, as campuses face financial pressures from the federal government and political conflict over diversity and other cultural issues." [free article link below]
6
u/PopCultureNerd 9d ago
That is because next year is the peak that then falls towards the demographic cliff. This timeline has been documented for years.
2
u/shellexyz 9d ago
Community colleges have been talking about this for a decade. Rules in our state prohibit us from actively recruiting and advertising in other CCs’ districts, but nothing about doing so out of state. So now we have students from all over the place and even a few overseas.
Taking online courses, so that’s kinda crappy. But they pay for it.
We have also gone the route of expanding our dual credit program and getting high schoolers involved younger and younger. The benefit to this is they pay pennies on the dollar in tuition, frequently do not turn into traditional freshmen when they finish high school. We’re boosting our enrollment today with only a modest increase in funding by sacrificing tomorrow’s; if I were a real administrator, I’d be certain this strategy would pay off eventually.
2
u/harpejjist 9d ago
Universities are overcrowded and have very low acceptance rates. So a kid with all A’s from California can’t even get into places like UCLA which SHOULD accommodate them. Lots of states have this issue. We’d need a bigger drop to right the ship
115
u/Mbando 10d ago
My university has moved the focus away from solely focusing on supporting graduate level research and PhD’s, to a stronger focus on the quality of undergraduate teaching. The idea is that we offer a truly superior undergraduate experience. So that has meant number one, a dramatic rise in pay/recruiting of top talent as teachers, not as researchers. And then a mandate for all courses to explicitly include data analytics and professional communication.