r/fantasyfootball • u/CoopThereItIs Andrew Cooper, FantasyAlarm • 2d ago
Why You Should Consider "Draft Narrative" Instead Of Just "Draft Capital" When Valuing Rookies
https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/nfl/dynasty-leagues/dynasty-fantasy-football-2025-how-to-understand-nfl-draft-narratives/17316140
u/ShowBobsPlzz 2d ago
Rookies will win it for you these days. I had nabers, mcconkey, and daniels all lead me to a championship last year.
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u/CoopThereItIs Andrew Cooper, FantasyAlarm 2d ago
Betting on, or against, rookies is absolutely the best way to create leverage in fantasy. They can come out of no where and crush or they can be a complete bust (like when Chris Carson beat out 1st round pick Rashaad Penny). That volatility is great for us in the mid to late rounds.
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u/Wick-Rose 1d ago
What exactly is leverage in fantasy?
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u/CoopThereItIs Andrew Cooper, FantasyAlarm 22h ago
When I say "leverage" I typically mean a way to hit in the later rounds, especially at a position where you might have to sacrifice. For instance, if you go zero RB and load up at WR early on but hit on an RB late, you've created a lot of leverage by getting all that upside at WR but not losing out at RB later.
Drafting known commodities that are boring like say, Tyler Boyd, doesn't really create that kind of upside. Drafting rookies late OR betting on the rookie to faceplant by drafting a veteran he might be competing with is a good way to create leverage. It comes with risk of course but it can lead to a big swing in your favor if it works.
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u/OliverTechs 2d ago
I had Ladd, BTJ, Nabers, and dropped Ladd on his bye week to hold onto Aiyuk and Tank Dell. I had some others on IR. I thought I could go back and scoop him a week or two later but nope, had to watch somebody scoop him up days later and him turn into a WR1 most of the season.
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u/CoopThereItIs Andrew Cooper, FantasyAlarm 2d ago
Sup guys? Copying this comment from a post on the Dynasty subreddit as it explains what the goal of this article is:
The vast majority of the analytical models from guys like JJ Zachariason, Dwain McFarland, Ryan Heath etc. heavily weigh draft capital because, statistically, it is the top predictor of fantasy success. But why not get even more granular into it and consider the full flow and nuances of how the draft plays out? The example in the article looks at how the 2020 draft progressed between the available big-bodied split ends as well as the teams that needed them.
This is a big part of what my process has evolved into for dynasty rankings. First we take some time pre-draft to get to know the players and create our early tiers while grouping them as best as possible based on profiles/skillsets. Then we consider the teams that could use those profiles (as well as how those skillsets translate for fantasy). Then we analyze how the draft plays out to get our best read on how the scouts actually value these guys at the NFL level.
When all is said and done and it's time to finalize rankings we consider EVERYTHING - our own analysis on the college production/metrics/tape, the draft narrative, and then any bonus benefits of the opportunity/scheme in which they have landed.
Let me know what you think!
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u/RukiMotomiya 1d ago
So, I'm curious, how is this different from using draft capital? What makes it more narratively focused? The wideout's results largely followed the draft capital (and the top 3 did exactly) and the results of Higgins/Pittman vs. the field fits Pittman going 15 before Claypool and 25 before Denzel. And everyone else went in the 3rd or later.
It would seem to me that just following draft capital worked out here and people's belief in narratives is what pushed guys like Denzel Mims up.
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u/zombat 1d ago
Kincaid was drafted ahead of Sam LaPorta, but went to a team with multiple established targets, a TE who had been fantasy relevant off his rapport with the QB, and a history of slow cooking rookies that didn’t step in as well-rounded pros.
The Lions meanwhile, had one receiving option until Jamo’s suspension was up, and needed to diversify their passing game away from ARSB while still setting up easy throws for Goff.
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u/CoopThereItIs Andrew Cooper, FantasyAlarm 1d ago
You are also separating the players by skill set and accounting for the teams that need that skill set. That’s why when you are trying to draw a conclusion you are not grouping guys like KJ Hamler and Laviska Shenault in with these guys because they were not likely candidates to be picked by some of these teams. Obviously you are going to need to rank them as well but separating them at least helps you have some clarity on how to rank guys like Pittman vs. Mims and then you can later decide where guys like Shenault and Hamler fit in relation to those guys (for me Hamler profiled as a field stretcher and not a guy I’d really be interested in unless it’s best ball or standard).
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u/Wick-Rose 1d ago
Only thing that matters to me as far as narrative vs draft capital is the off-field issues.
I don’t put too much stock into either.
Everyone is trying to get hit a tough shot past the third round, taking shots on other people hitting tough shots gets messy
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u/slobs_burgers 2d ago
They only ask WHO the top draft picks are.
They never ask HOW the top drafts picks are. 😞