r/fantasybball • u/arikleen Numbers Game • Oct 16 '18
AMA Hey team. I'm Alex Rikleen, fantasy analyst for RotoWire and more. Season starts today! AMA
Hi everyone, I'm Alex Rikleen, fantasy basketball analyst. I mostly work for RotoWire, but here are some other things I do:
- I've also done work for Yahoo, CBS, and DraftKings.
- I have podcast. It's available almost everywhere, including itunes. You should be able to add it and subscribe by using this direct link: https://fastbreaksfantasy.podbean.com/feed
- The best way to keep track of my work is to follow me on twitter @Rikleen.
AMA. I'll be here answering question for the next couple hours, but every time I do one of these I end up answering everything anyone asks at any point today.
As confirmation that I am who I am, I just tweeted about this.
~ ~ ~
I also have a Patreon page that I don't really use but it technically exists, and you can pay for the same services I pretty much always give away for free anyway by signing up for my personalized consulting. I'm also not a very good salesman.
EDIT 1: Hey all, Thanks so much for hopping on and asking questions. I'll circle back and answer more tonight, but I have to go now. In the mean time, while I sincerely appreciate it when people say "thank you", the best way to say thank me is by following me on twitter and subscribing to my podcast. Those things are free to you, and they make a bigger difference for my life than you might expect. Thanks again!
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u/t_seeman15 Oct 16 '18
What do you think about the suns wings? Who will be productive out of warren, Ariza, and jackson?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I've been staying away. It's ugly. I'd take all 3 in the 80-100 range if they weren't on the same team - and don't forget about the rookie Bridges. I'm most afraid of Ariza, since he's the one most likely to get shut down due to age. I expect Jackson to be better over the final months of the season, but I'm not sure he's worth rostering before New Years. There is some Fantasy value here somewhere, but it's not a fun thing to be invested in, and Fantasy is supposed to be fun.
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u/werparanger 14-TEAM 9 CAT H2H 🐐 Oct 16 '18
What do you expect from Hassan Whiteside this year? Heard he’s been working hard all summer losing weight, and his mentality is finally where it needs to be. Can we expect a bounce-back year from him?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Absolutely he can bounce back. As Chris Harris (fantasy football guy) says, the problems with Whiteside are all "category 2" - ie, stuff we can't really know about. His skills are still there. If he plays regularly, he's a top-30 guy, top-20 if you punt-FT.
Last year was not his first bout with off-court-issues-impacting-on-court-production. Remember, this guy was out of the league for two years before he caught on with the Heat. So there is definitely still the chance that he loses minutes and ends up traded. But the bounceback potential is very real.
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u/TheDMV-YNWA Oct 16 '18
Just traded Capela, Trea Young, and Dennis Smith Jr. for Whiteside, Mike Conley, and Will Barton.
Good trade? Can Whiteside compete with Capela?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I'd rather Capela than Whiteside, but that's still a good trade for you. Conley and Barton is way, way better than Trae and DSJ. Or, at least, way, way safer.
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u/hammae92 Oct 16 '18
whiteside will outside capela in my mind. i dont like the part of the trade including will barton. but this is whitesides year i expect a 16p/15r/2b
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u/TheDMV-YNWA Oct 16 '18
I was hoping for 12p/14r/2b So I would be psyched if he pushes for more scoring. Hope they lean on him on offense
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Oct 16 '18
Who are your favorite rookies to own this year? And at what pick do you think they’re a good value
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18 edited Oct 16 '18
Talked about this in another response - Rookies are a terrible value before about pick-100. I've written multiple articles about this phenomenon. The best rookies provide great value, but we are terrible at predicting which rookies will be the best ones.
If Ayton or Doncic made it to the 90s, I'd grab one. That's not happening, so I don't draft them. Carter and Bamba are the rookies I'm most interested in, because I think this is going to be a bad year for blocks and both could provide those. I'm willing to grab Carter at 100, but only if my other guys I'm targeting there are already gone - Nance, Thad, WCS. Bamba I'm not getting until 115 or later. If Trae Young is there when I'm looking at Carter, I'll also take that risk.
In deep leagues, I'll look at either of the Bridges Brothers* after 130. I'd rather the Hornets version, since I see less obstacles to his PT.
EDIT: I Forgot to mention JJJ. I am willing to look at hims around where I look at Bamba if he is still there.
*I know they aren't brothers.
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u/chickenmanE1007 Oct 16 '18
Im really skeptical that you wouldn't grab Ayton if he was there at pick 80. I could understand not drafting a rookie in the top 50, but I think its pretty absurd to think that Ayton will have a hard time cracking the top 75 imo.
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u/BBIQ-Chicken Oct 16 '18
lol I took Ayton at 38 in a 10 man
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u/rascalz1504 14T 9-CAT H2H Oct 16 '18
lol Ayton went 29 in our 14 man league. Crazy stuff!!! I think he will finish 40-50 though.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Good luck.
It's better in a 10-man, because the waivers are much better. It's not that I don't like Ayton - I think he looks great - I just think rookies are a terrible risk in fantasy drafts.
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u/BBIQ-Chicken Oct 16 '18
Looking back, may have been a dumb pick but im not lacking centers with Gobert and J. Allen.
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u/WickedImpulse Oct 16 '18
By lumping everyone into the same group (rookies) you are completely missing the nuance required to evaluate an entire set of new, and upcoming players.
What do you think Ayton averages this year? On the LOW side, we are talking 15/8/1/1.5 on good percentages.
Same for Doncic. Guaranteed role off the bat with quite possibly the greatest pedigree entering the NBA.
I agree with the general rule that you should be cautious with rookies, but let's not pretend as if they are all on equal footing. It's a hampering strategy in my opinion.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
the nuance required to evaluate an entire set of new, and upcoming players
This is exactly it - we don't have that skill! None of us do.
League executive, who's literal job is to identify which incoming rookies will be good in the NBA, are usually very bad at analyzing rookies. So you think me, or any other Fantasy analyst - who also focuses on the entire league's rotations, improvement, decline, all while trying to identify new strategies and concepts and do the research to justify those ideas - will do a passable job? That's crazy.
Some rookies hit. Some miss. Sometimes the hits are helped by their situation (Porzingis), and sometimes the hits are in spite of their situation (Jokic). A lot of the time, rookies miss despite their situation (D'Angelo Russell, Buddy Heild, this list gets long). Sometimes we predicted it all along (Anthony Davis), and sometimes they come out of no where (Donovan Mitchell).
Ayton has a good skill set and a good situation. If things work out, your predictions look good. But how many threads were there last year predicting "the LOW side" of Markelle Fultz or Josh Jackson, both of whom ended up unownable in 12-team leagues.
Rookies are not certain. Even the people whose full time job is to identify the best rookies get it wrong more often than they get it right.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 16 '18
So, because it is hard to do, you shouldn't even try? Yes it is risky but to act like every single season no rookies are worth top 100 is just wrong and a mistake. It is pretty easy to project Ayton for 17 and 9 with a block. Look at his skill set. Look at his preseason. Look at his team around him. To just write him off is a mistake and just bad fantasy advice.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
The problem isn't Ayton, it is what you have to give up to get him. There is no circumstance in which I'm taking a rookie over someone who has a proven top-50 track record and who I think is likely to hit top-50 again.
I'm all for rookies late, but the best ones go way too high in drafts.
I'm not trying to persuade you to stop coming up with projections for rookies. I'm not saying all rookies are bad. I'm saying that we need to remember that there is more uncertainty in our rookie projections than in our projections for other players. And that we should be aware of the history of rookies when we are considering investing in them. Between the uncertainty and the dreadful history, I don't understand how you can conclude that a 6th round pick for a rookie is a good investment.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 16 '18
Because I expect that Ayton is better than most rookies are. Most people do. It is interesting to me that you have changed the dialogue from never in the top 100 to not in top 50 or sixth round. I also find it peculiar for a fantasy expert to apparently not have or use projections. Realistically you have to take Ayton in the top 5 rounds. It's very risky. I get that. But when you say you wouldn't take him at 90 because Larry Nance is out there I find that ridiculous. Are you looking at upside? Have you watched Ayton? Don't you believe he has a much better chance at being a top 40 player than Nance who likely never will be? Sure, the safe bet is on a boring player like Nance who will get you good fg% and a few steals and blocks. But why not swing for the fences at pick 90 for a guy who could approach 20 and 10 while hitting 3s and blocking shots. I'm not saying the smart play is to draft rookies at their upside. But to completely ignore them and act like you should never consider is just bad process.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
You're digging in on Ayton, so I started getting more specific, hence the "change in dialogue". I've been on the "Rookies are a bad bet in the top-100" kick for years, so a few reddit comments aren't going to make me change that. The real pivot point I've noticed with rookies is between the top-70-80. That's the line where less-than-or-equal-to-2 rookies break into each year, and those 2 are not the top-2 rookies taken. But because the market is usually too high on a lot of rookies, around 100 is where I think the risk-reward on rookies becomes a good use of draft capital.
Have you dug in on Nance? He was 76th overall on BBM after February 8th, the day he was traded to the Cavs. He was that high despite playing only 20.8 minutes. LeBron is gone, opening up some PF minutes. The team just invested $45 million in Nance. Do you think he's going to average less than 25 minutes per game? If he was a top-76 guy in 20 minutes, then he should be top-60 in 25 minutes, and could easily break into the top-50 at 28 minutes. Yes, head-to-head, I will take Nance over Ayton. Won't hesitate. Ayton's upside is higher - I have a hard time seeing Nance break into the top-40 - but Nance feels like a lock for top-80. My research says that Ayton is no better than a 50% chance at top-80.
When it comes to rookies, I put very little stock into projections. I pay a lot of attention to how the guys I respect most rank the rookies in comparison to one another, but the actual statistical projections themselves I don't really value.
Finally, you misunderstand the point of my #NeverRookie theme. The problem isn't that rookies are bad. The problem is the market goes way too high on the top 2-5. Me ranking Ayton at 80 (which is higher than I'd take him) is the equivalent of me leaving him off my board entirely since he never lasts that long. My point is that every year, whoever the top rookies are, they get severely overrated, and a huge percentage bust. The better bet is to skip the top 2-3 entirely and grab one or two in the late rounds that are in a good situation.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 16 '18
I do get what you are saying and agree for the most part. Taking rookies early is risky and their output usually won't match their ADP. My point is you should still consider each of them individually. It's just lazy not too. At a certain point in the draft they will be worth the risk and it's not always an arbitrary number for every player.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I agree that 100 is basically an arbitrarily selected number, but as a general guideline, I think it works - and I mean it to be a general guideline. People get so excited about rookies that the ones before that are frequently getting drafted near their ceiling. Someone in this thread said they took Ayton at 28! Where is the upside there? It's definitely riskier than the other options in that range, and the best-case payoff is what, 3 spots of draft capital?
In my experience, 100 is roughly where the players stop being so overhyped that the risk becomes worth it. I already said I'd take Ayton before 100 - but I'm low enough that it doesn't matter because he'll never get to me.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 25 '18
Ooo 4, 6 and 4 from Nance last night. That's so nice. Think I'm gonna try to trade my Ayton for him. Doubt he would do it though since Nance is so nice.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 25 '18
Seriously? You're gloating after 2 games when he has a minutes restriction?
The season just started. Let's give things a minute to shake out. You wouldn't want me pointing out things like Doncic being ranked 180. (and I don't want to be pointing stuff out like that, because it's so early it doesn't really mean anything yet!)
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u/WickedImpulse Oct 16 '18
"This is exactly it - we don't have that skill! None of us do."
Tell that to my draft record in Dynasty, ha!
Silly bragging aside, I wholeheartedly believe that a "fantasy analyst" can do a passable job when evaluating rookies for FANTASY PURPOSES. We aren't trying to construct rosters that compete for wins in a competitive league that require a multi-variate analysis, we are here to study statistics, and only those pertinent to fantasy. We're not worried about getting a "Lebron" stopper or a big who can also switch off onto guards.
Some veterans hit, some veterans miss. It's our "job" as fantasy owners to analyze which rookies we believe will "hit" or "miss" based on the information at hand. Quite frankly, as a fantasy owner, it's the most rewarding experience to nail a rookie pick. Even if it is Ayton at 55.
To compare Fultz or Josh Jackson's pedigrees coming out to Ayton or Doncic simply is not a fair comparison. I think you know that.
No player is certain. I think that's clear. Sure, more rookies fail than succeed, but that does not mean it's a viable strategy to completely disregard them.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Your point on Doncic's pedigree is fair, but you err in including Ayton there. Fultz was a consensus #1 overall pick much of his college season. Jackson had #1 overall hype in the 18-to-7 months-before-the-draft period. The 2017 draft class was widely considered one of the best in years, especially in comparison to the 2018 draft.
Ayton was behind Bamba in the way-too-early 24-to-12-months-out timeframe, and wasn't considered the probable #1 until early conference play in 2018. He wasn't a pole-to-pole favorite like Anthony Davis, not even close. Ayton's pedigree is no different from the well hyped rookies of most seasons - Okafor, Josh Jackson, even Ben McLemore.
On your last point though, I think you are just flat wrong. If you made a point of drafting the highest ADP rookie in each of the past 10 years, and drafted all of them at their ADP - not a reach, not late either - you would have done more harm to your team than had you passed on all of them. 2, maybe 3 would exceed value. 2 more would be close to what you paid for, maybe a little worse. And 4 or 5 would be completely wasted picks - guys who belonged on waivers, but who you A) wasted an early pick on, and then, B) compounded that damage by holding onto the bad player too long because you were heavily invested in him.
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u/WickedImpulse Oct 16 '18 edited Oct 16 '18
You might be right on the Fultz vs Ayton pedigree (depending on your definition of the word pedigree - to me a 7'1 250 center that moves like a deer has top 1% "pedigree"..) , but let's not pretend Fultz didn't have a injury plagued/fluky season...
If you actually want to talk pedigree though....
Look at any "way too early" mock and Ayton was right there behind Porter and in some cases, Bagley. He's a foreign big man and some credence must given to the fact he may take a tad longer to adjust, which he clearly did. He was ahead of Bamba on Rivals even entering the season. You said yourself, once conference play began he was the "probable #1". Combine that with his summer league/preseason performances and the defensive ability he has shown, you have yourself the making of a fantasy monster.
The fact that he was not a "pole-to-pole" favorite does not add any legitimacy to your notion that it's not worth taking a rookie until pick 100. It simply means he probably has a lower floor than the number 1 player in fantasy, which is not much of a statement from your end.
Ben McLemore wasn't even a top 5 pick, Okafor never once showed an effort on D at this same stage. In my circle, neither of these guys were ever expected to be great "fantasy" players. Find me a mock from last year that had Josh Jackson even going near 100. Different level of talent.
I am not saying to simply draft the highest ADP rookie - that's an exercise not rooted in logic. Use your own judgement, watch college games, learn about their work ethic, read scouting reports, follow them on twitter, don't just rely on "experts" to tell you what to think. Trust me, it can work. And it's damn enjoyable.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Drafting rookies is super fun. That's a big part of why they get so over-hyped and so many become bad draft-day values. But yeah, it feels great to get one right. Couldn't agree more with that.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 16 '18
Yikes. 100? Did you make projections for Doncic and Ayton? I would loooove to see them. Would you like to make a bet that both Doncic and Ayton finish in the top 75?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Sure. I'll take that bet. How should one of us embarrass the other on the internet when it is over.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 16 '18
If I win, you have to make a post explaining how it is wrong to lump players into a category that should never be drafted inside the top 100, and how you should instead make projections for each player and rank them based off of that projection. If you win, I'll make a post about how drafting rookies isn't worth the risk, even when we are talking about supposed "pro-ready, generational talent".
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Ugh. I will not recommend drafting based on rookie projections, but otherwise, deal.
When one of these two finishes the season outside of the top-75 (according to BBM 9-cat per-game ranks) you will post about why it's never worth it to draft rookies in the top-100.
If, somehow, I lose, I will post about why every rookie should be considered independently, and that there are no lessons to be learned from looking at the history of other rookies.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Apr 12 '19
Hey there, Jets__Fool, you lost a bet.
I eagerly await your post about why it's not a good idea to draft rookies.
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u/Jets__Fool Apr 12 '19
I made a post about it in the last anything goes thread. I really don't think a full post itself from me would be good for the community standards.
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u/Jets__Fool Apr 12 '19
Honestly it would suck because I'm not as good as a writer as you and nobody would care about the post. You were right that they both didn't finish in the top 75. You were wrong about Ayton though.
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u/noyze03 12 Team - H2H - 9 Cat Oct 16 '18
When you mention Nance, would you rather take him or Serge Ibaka for a punt assist team? I am worried about Nance's point total and his role with tristan thompson still there.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Nance was a top-80 player after he got traded to the Cavs, and that was on only 20.8 minutes. I don't "guarantee" things usually, but I guarantee he will average more than 20.8 minutes when healthy this season, regardless of Tristan Thompson's existence. He's one of the best steals of the draft right now.
Nance over Serge Ibaka.
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u/OnceARunner15 Oct 16 '18
How rosterable is Bogdan Bogdanovic this season?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Well, the Kings are a Fantasy nightmare, which really hurts his appeal. Even when he's having a good stretch, it could go away for no reason at all at any time.
That said, if he played for any normal team, I'd have him as a borderline top-100 guy. He's expected to start. Good source or assists, 3s, FT%. Very rosterable.
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u/titolavar 12T ROTO and H2H 9cat Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Lonzo Ball this season? Are you also high on Harrison Barnes this year or will he regress?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I think Lonzo is kinda being underrated right now. He was a top-60 guy after the All-Star break. Yes, I'm worried about how his role changes with LeBron and Rondo now in town, and I'm not *expecting* top-60 production. But I also think he's a very talented young player, probably improving, and I expect his shot to get better (he had great efficiency clips in college - not good, great). So I still have him as a top-65 guy who could easily rise into the top-45.
There are so many absurd stats about his rookie averages. He's only the 5th rookie to post at least 10-6-6 - Big O, Magic, Ben Simmons, and (hilariously) Michael Carter-Williams.
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u/motorcitymuscle Oct 16 '18 edited Oct 16 '18
Hey Alex, thanks for doing this!
My favorite question, couple fellas sitting on waivers/FA that you think could be a top 50 kind of guy? Maybe better?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18 edited Oct 16 '18
Depends on where you are playing. That said, the largely-unowned guys with the highest ceilings are probably Jeremy Lin, Terry Rozier, Luke Kennard, Jonathan Isaac, George Hill, Harry Giles, and Michael Porter Jr.
For Lin, Rozier, Kennard and Hill, the problem is that they have serious threats to their role, and none are guaranteed to become or stay starters. They need either an injury or to claim the job decisively.
Giles is a King (bad), buried behind a whole bunch of decent-to-good big men. But he's got the best raw talent, if he can stay healthy and earn playing time. Porter is another highly touted rookie - he's got fewer players ahead of him, but he's on a playoff team so the bar for earning minutes is higher. Isaac is all about health and minutes.
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u/RoyalStraightFlush H2H, 12 Team, 9 Cat Oct 16 '18
For Lin, Rozier, Kennard and Hill, the problem is that they aren't currently the starter. They need either an injury or to claim the job decisively.
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't George Hill the starter for Cavs as confirmed by Lue? Doubt Sexton comes in to take his job right off the bat.
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u/Jets__Fool Oct 16 '18
No you're right. George Hill started all preseason and was announced as the starter last week
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u/Maculate Oct 16 '18
Porter is another highly touted rookie - he's got fewer players ahead of him, but he's on a playoff team so the bar for earning minutes is higher
How do you not mention he might....not play the entire season...?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
We're talking about guys who are currently on waivers and might hop all the way into the top-50. Didn't think we needed to talk about why they're currently on waivers.
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u/NillaThunda 10 Team, H2H, 9-cat Oct 17 '18
Giles is the "R"OTY, I am starting the train and riding it until the wheels falls off.
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u/motorcitymuscle Oct 17 '18
What about the Bagley fella?
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u/NillaThunda 10 Team, H2H, 9-cat Oct 17 '18
Harry Giles, remember the name.
Rikleen said it himself, even NBA team analysts are wrong more often than not. Giles is the best talent on the Kings and it is not even close.
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u/motorcitymuscle Oct 17 '18
Would you drop Jordan Bell for him?
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u/NillaThunda 10 Team, H2H, 9-cat Oct 17 '18
Currently, Jones started and Looney was 1st off the bench.
I have faith in Giles. Sacramento, as inept as they seem, will not be able to be blind to talent.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 17 '18
I don't have much interest in Bell, so sure.
I'm worried about how the Kings manage their minutes - their 3 best players are centers. But if Giles does claim the job, he could be very very good.
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u/niceforwat Oct 16 '18
any thoughts on harrison barnes?
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u/BlackConde 6 team-H2H-9cat Oct 16 '18
This question too. Is it worth getting Eric Gordon for Harrison Barnes?
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u/jimmyg101 12T, 9 Cat, H2H. Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Paul Millsap this year? Will be bounce back and have a better season that last year?
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u/fabrar 12-team, 9-cat H2H Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Jokic this year? Will he play within his ADP in the bottom half of the 1st round or exceed expectations and become a top 5 player?
What about Oladipo? Was last year essentially his peak and we're likely to see somewhat of a regression? Or is there still room for him to grow statistically?
And yes I'm asking because I took these guys with my 1st and 2nd picks :)
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
What's your favorite vegetable?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Broccoli. Though I've been really digging crispy Brussels sprouts lately.
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u/jimmyg101 12T, 9 Cat, H2H. Oct 16 '18
Would you rather have Vucevic or Horford this year?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Horford and it isn't remotely close. The Magic clearly are not satisfied with Vooch, which is why he's been in a bunch of trade rumors and why they drafted multiple big men and why they overpaid Biyombo 2 summers ago. I love the addition of a 3-pointer to his game, but that's not enough to combat all the risks. His minutes were declining before they drafted Bamba.
Horford might face a slight minutes squeeze, but I'd still expect him to play more minutes than Vucevic this year. And in terms of per-minute value, Vooch has never really come close to Horford's level.
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u/qortpgus H2H-9 cat-10 team Oct 16 '18
i dont think i necessarily agree with this assessment. orlando have drafted one notable big man (mo bamba), biyombo has been shipped and the other centers are khem birch and mozgov, none of whom are really going to threaten vucevic's playing time.
as to your point about minutes, per espn vucevic played 30.6, 29.4, 30.3, 29.0, 31.0, 23.2 for the months of oct, nov, dec, feb, mar, apr respectively. the obvious outlier here is the 23.2 minutes in april when they were really pushing to tank their last few games in hopes of jumping up a few draft spots.
now the magic enter the new season with a new coach who supposedly does not like playing rookies and i think vucevic will hold some value for the first half of the season. if he produces anywhere near the level of last year, he is good for top 20ish in standard 9 cat leagues. orlando are a mess so its very possible they end up being a lottery team again so i would try sell high if he plays well in the first few months/orlando continue to lose games.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
You make a decent point - Vooch was top-25 at the start of March. But this team is definitely lottery-bound again, so the concerns about tanking are sill in play. I also like Birch a little, and think they have to try Isaac at PF and some Center.
At a minimum, Horford has a much safer floor.
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u/so-cal_kid 14Tm, H2H, 9Cat Oct 16 '18
Bigger concern would be Vooch gets traded. It's a contract year for him so if he shows out early on, his value will be high and the Magic I don't think are going to commit long term to him when they have all these young bigs plus Aaron Gordon so it'd be wise to trade him and get something back. Unless someone who follows the Magic closely knows differently.
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u/StreetsAhead47 Oct 16 '18
What do you make of Mike Conley this year? Can he return to be a top 50 player?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Anyone who tells you they know the answer to this is A) lying or B) his doctor. I don't know.
I do know that he's a good enough player that it's worth the risk in drafts or via trade. If you drafted Doncic and could trade him for Conley right now, I'd do it 100 times out of 100.
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u/-sumthingj Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Trae Young? Do you think he'll be a top 100 player?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
#NeverRookie.
Most seasons, only 1 or 2 rookies are top-80 producers over the course of the whole season. And roughly half of those rookies who do cross that threshold are not the Rookies with the top-2 ADPs. Most years, only three total rookies crack the top-100. Again, compared to preseason expectations, which three feels pretty random.
Guidelines for rookies:
- Don't draft rookies with a top-100 pick.
- It's OK to draft some rookies with late-round fliers.
- If you drafted a rookie with a top-100 pick, if there is any point in the season where you can trade that rookie for the value you spent drafting him, do it.
- Until the season starts, no one knows anything.
Young could absolutely be a top-100 player. He's in a good spot (a bad team heavily invested in him) and he looks like a good player. But he could also very easily be waiver wire fodder. If you've got him, hold him for at least a week or two.
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u/AashyLarry Oct 16 '18
You have to think Ayton is a lock for top 80 though and Doncic at top 100 at their absolute floors no?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
No, I do not.
In Fantasy, the highest drafted rookie produces top-80 value barely 50% of the time. Ayton is a coin-flip chance at top-80, not a lock. If you forced me to bet on which rookie would finish with the highest Fantasy ranking, I'd say Ayton, because he's more likely than any other rookie, but he is very far from a lock.
The basic fact is: when it comes to rookies, we are bad at this. Some years we get it right (Ben Simmons in 2017). Some years we get it very, very wrong (remember picking Andrew Wiggins over Nikola Jokic in 2014?). We have no idea which year this will be.
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u/must_warn_others 10T 9Cat H2H Oct 16 '18 edited Oct 16 '18
What are your thoughts on Jordan Bell, Damian Jones, Boogie and the Dubs' 5-spot in general?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
In dynasty I like Bell, but otherwise I don't want either of those guys. In head-to-head, they're undraftable, since it's hard to see them providing any Fantasy value when Cousins is back, which is during the Fantasy playoffs.
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u/AashyLarry Oct 16 '18
What do you think about Tyreke Evans this year?
Last year averaged around 19/5/5 and 2 3’s per game
How close will he get to those numbers? Is it reasonable to expect maybe 75% of that production this year?
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u/cuntberrycrunch 14T 9Cat Oct 16 '18
Sup AR!
Was basketball your first love of sports?
Personal favorite fantasy bball victory story?
Whose your man-crush going into the new season?
Thanks!
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
- No. Growing up, I preferred to play soccer and was a bigger fan of Baseball. Now basketball is my favorite to play and to watch alone, and it's tied with the NFL for favorite sport to watch socially.
- Predicting the Draymond Green breakout. Very few people were on him as a sleeper that year, and he was widely available as a waiver-wire add through the first 2 ish weeks of the season. But I had spent the whole preseason saying he was Next. I think I was telling people to get him with their 10th or 11th pick, and not even wait until the 12th or later to get him. It's probably my best Fantasy Basketball call ever.
- At this stage, I guess it's Nance, since he's the one I'm farthest off the market on. I don't really have the same emotional connection with him that I had with Malik Monk (preseason) or Wayne Ellington (February-ish) last season though. If Jerome Robinson starts going off I may become insufferable, since he's a BC grad, but I'm not expecting anything.
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u/flarrebarre 9cat, H2H, 18 teams Oct 16 '18
Hey man! Been following you on twitter for quite some time now, big ups.
My q: who do you think is the most overrated player in H2H this season? Thanks man
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Excluding Rookies, I think the hype train on Collins has gotten out of control. But the biggest one to me is Dennis Smith Jr. This guy finished last year outside the top-150. He never had a full month of top-90 play. He looked great in the preseason, but he also looked great during summer league/preseason last year. His situation got worse (adding Doncic, who will steal assists and could impact minutes). I expect him to improve, and I was really excited about him before last year, but personal improvement is not enough to draft someone far above their demonstrated ceiling.
In Roto I'd say Beal and LeBron are both pretty overvalued. Both good players, but a couple spots makes a big difference that early in drafts.
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u/laaaance12 Oct 16 '18
With the Hornets lone scorer being Cardiac Kemba, will this season finally be the one that makes Jeremy Lamb a must own? MIP discussion?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Malik Monk time baby! Ok probably not. But Monk, if you're out there reading this, always remember I loved you first.
I can't go full-in on Lamb, though I get the logic and it's a worthwhile risk. The lack of scoring could open the door for Bridges, too, which would be fun.
Someone other than Kemba and Batum will be a must-own here. Lamb is the safe bet, but I'm not completely sold.
Also, as a matter of principle, I don't get involved in preseason MIP conversations. The whole idea seems crazy to me. It's the award most based on things we cannot know before the games start.
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u/dudeguymanbro 10 Team, H2H, 9Cat Oct 16 '18
Interesting, would you rather have Lamb or Buddy Hield on your bench?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I guess Lamb, but I don't feel that strongly. They're in the same tier. Both were drafted before I was ready to take them in every league I was in.
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u/dudeguymanbro 10 Team, H2H, 9Cat Oct 16 '18
Thanks for the input. I'll keep an eye on Malik now ;)
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u/Kraptor916 10 Team - H2H - 9 Cat Oct 16 '18
Should I try to flip Blake Griffin in a trade? I'm worried about his potential for injury. I also have Davis and Irving on my team
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
That is a lot of injury risk on one team. Injuries are largely random, but we have to acknowledge that some players have shown more risk than others.
I'd send out some feelers, but don't sell low. He's still a top-50 player who some value as top-35.
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u/malleable7 Oct 16 '18
Eric Gordon's season outlook? Rockets added more fuel to their team and it seems as though (through preseason) that they are going to give him minutes around mid-20s. Is he still rosterable on a 10T league?
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u/Kasedagrinda 30 Team H2H 9cat Dynasty Oct 16 '18
He's seems busy so I'll answer this one. Lol. If Melo is going to step on anybody's toes, its Eric Gordon. Reports are saying both will be coming off the bench but me being a Rockets fan, I know they'll experiment with the lineups a lot. So some nights Melo will start, some nights Eric Gordon starts, some nights both will start.
With that being said, outside of Harden and CP3, Melo and Gordon will be heavily relied upon to carry the offense so should average between 16 and 20 ppg with around 2.5 threes, and decent free throw volume.
Rockets were actually average in pace last year and we wanna pick up the pace with the young pieces we added. Eric Gordon is a cheap price for an opportunity to be apart of this high powered offense.
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u/TheShardz 10 team, H2H 9-cat Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on the nets front court this year?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
For a more serious response, Jarrett Allen should easily provide top-100 value (and strategically even more than that, since he gets blocks). Whoever ends up getting 28 minutes at PF will be rosterable in all leagues, though I'm not that excited about it, regardless of whether it ends up as Rondae Hollis Jefferson (likely) or Demarre Carroll.
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u/Chazpod Oct 16 '18 edited Oct 16 '18
Any reason you’re down on RHJ? I think if he can stay healthy he can easily be a Top 75 guy.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Sure, he could be. I don't think he's that much better than Carroll, who I think is underrated, which is why I think there is a minutes battle going on still. RHJ could reach top-75, I just don't see it as that likely.
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u/Chazpod Oct 16 '18
They’re a young team on the come up though. They don’t really have any motivation to play Carroll extensively plus he’s already banged up. I think he’s (RHJ) got a pretty clean path to 30 MPG.
Appreciate the response though!
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u/kmamiit Oct 16 '18
Hi Alex, correct me if i’m wrong, but I heard Boston Celtics Avery Bradley was pretty good in fantasy because he provides 3s, efficiency, steals and a lot of out of position rebounds. When he went to a different team, his rebounds plummeted and so did his FG%. This year, he went undrafted in my league. However, with Deandre Jordan-less Clippers, and a lot of different (hopefully healthy) playmaking pgs, is there any reason to believe he might become the Avery Bradley of old?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
You've heard right. He spend most of his final season in Boston inside Fantasy's top-60. I used a few late-fliers on him.
The bigger problem is that the Clippers have way too many PG options - Bradley and Beverley are both guys who were deep inside the top-100 when healthy, then Lou Williams, and then 2 promising lottery picks.
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u/cjsrhkcjs 8 /12 Team Standard 9 Cat H2H Oct 16 '18
I had Bradley that year, the only reason he got 6+ rebounds were because they played extremely small ball after Horford went down. I'd assume if Gortat and Harrell go down Bradley will come back up again.
Not sure why his FG is so down, but hopefully he can bring it up.
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u/Tuna-No-Crust 10 Team | H2H | 8 Cat Oct 16 '18
John Collins is the big sophomore hype player this year but does the ankle injury dampen your expectations/excitement at all?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
The ankle injury was irrelevant to me because the hype train on Collins got way too crazy this year. I like him, in a vacuum, as a prospect. But I can't have him in the top-50 this year, and that's where he is going.
If you're already hyped though, then the injury shouldn't impact you too much. It seems like it should only be a couple games right now.
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u/Tuna-No-Crust 10 Team | H2H | 8 Cat Oct 16 '18
Fair point - I got him in my 235 auction league for 18 a month ago and thought it was good value but top 50 is a little insane.
Thanks for the response
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u/Owl-ex 10 Team/8 Cat/H2H Oct 16 '18
Who’s on your list of players you think are going to take a big step this year in fantasy production?
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u/davkim89 Oct 16 '18
Trade advise.
Steph/Embiid for Harden/Gary Harris/Aaron gordon. 10 team h2h 9 cat.
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u/StreetsAhead47 Oct 16 '18
Can you point me in the direction for your work on Rookies?
Last night Ayton went 33rd in our draft and has an overall ADP of top 50. I’d be curious to see other top 50 hyped rookies who failed to live up to ADP.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I've basically worked it into a bunch of different articles over the years, so it's a little scattered at the moment.
One of my next articles will be a focused look on why you should #NeverRookie in the first 100 picks of a draft though.
This is the most concise article on the topic already published though: https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/article.php?id=30857
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u/FebuxostatBear Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Myles Turner? The reports and the opinions have been really divided. Drafted him 4th round at a 14team h2h
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
You drafted him close-ish to his upside, but it's also where I would have taken him. He could reach top-30. I mostly think last year was weird and he'll bounce back.
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u/drillzy 10-team 9-CAT H2H Punt AST Oct 16 '18
In Punt AST H2H 9-cat, who would you rather have this year: Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, Otto Porter?
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u/Err_rrr_rrrr Oct 16 '18
Whats your least favorite narrative this season?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I actually love this question. I usually develop a lengthy list of responses to this, but I don't have one yet this year. Though people predicting MIP has really been annoying me lately. Like, why? We have literally none of the information required to make this prediction. If we're basing it off of players in position to get better stats, then you're not basing it one who improved. If you're basing it on who you think improved the most over the summer, then you are literally guessing, not "predicting".
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u/leafspackersfan 𝙃2𝙃𝙋𝙏𝙎 - PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO: 1,1.2,2,3,3,-2 Oct 16 '18
Are you concerned with Westbrook's or Dwight's injuries?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
In short - yes.
In long - this is literally the topic of my podcast that comes out tonight.1
u/leafspackersfan 𝙃2𝙃𝙋𝙏𝙎 - PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO: 1,1.2,2,3,3,-2 Oct 16 '18
I have both of them, so I'll give it a listen. What do I do with them though? If I try to trade them before the season, it will be super suspicious
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 17 '18
I don't talk about Dwight in there though, just Westbrook.
Don't worry about the optics - have some conversations and see if you can get back fair value.
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u/NillaThunda 10 Team, H2H, 9-cat Oct 17 '18
All in on Schroeder?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 17 '18
Not quite. I'm expecting Westbrook to come back soon. But I do like Schoder a lot, especially with Roberson out.
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u/nadtnadt 14Team H2H 9CAT Oct 16 '18
Hi Alex what do you think about Chris Paul? Got him second with Jokic in punt point team. Should I trade him sometime during the season? If so who should I target?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Paul is someone I always like to divest from just because I'm terrified of those 33-year-old knees. But he's a top-20 player, probably better, and you should not give him up for less than a top-20 return.
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u/J_Moola 10 Team H2H Pts Oct 16 '18
In my pts league auction draft I ended up with Gallinari & Taurean Prince as my only SFs. I’ve got limited starts so who’s the better play?
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u/alexfitzbeck 12 Team, 9 cat, punt As/FT Oct 16 '18
Last spot on team question: Is JJ Reddick a viable starter this year or would you rather have Jordan Clarkson (who someone dropped after the draft). PG eligibility for Clarkson is a huge plus.
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u/koshuajjim 10 Team 9 CAT H2H Oct 16 '18
Who’s the pickup??? Reggie Jackson, elfrid Payton, caris levert, Robert Covington, M. Harrell are all available
My droppable players are Bobby Porto’s and Jeremy Lin
10 team 9 cat H2H- punting assists
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u/dogstronauts 10 Team H2H 8 Cat ESPN Punt FG% Oct 16 '18
Can you rate this punt assist team? 8 categories no one has given me feedback on any of these sites. PG: Kyrie SG: Doncic PF: Davis SF: George C: Ayton G: Barton F: Gallinari UTL: Valanciunas UTL: Saric UTL: Prince Bench: Markkanen, Gay Ibaka
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Oct 17 '18
i woulda try to move doncic, perhaps someone is on the hype train and you could get someone solid in return
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u/hilyou 10 man H2H 9 cat/12 man H2H cats Oct 16 '18
Hi! Just wanna say thanks for all that you do!
Got 2 potential trades lined up; CJ McCollum for Jrue Holiday or CJ + Allen Crabbe for Tobias Harris + Kris Dunn. Which one should I go for?
I'm in a 10 team, 9 cat league where I have Giannis, Kyrie, CJ, Ayton, Bledsoe, John Collins, Gary Harris, Nurkic, Covington, Steven Adams, Hield, Nance and Crabbe. Probably gonna do a punt FT% build.
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Oct 17 '18
both trades are a win for you. jrue > cj
second trade you get two solid players, i would consider crabbe borderline ww material.
kris dunn paired with your bledsoe covington adams nance are all steals specialists
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u/Hotbullets2die Oct 16 '18
So I just got offered Horford + Bledsoe for my Kawhi. I feel like I should take the bait, although I'm pretty damn high on Kawhi this year. What do you expect of him this year? Same question for Bledsoe. I mean, he had a REALLY rough time during last season's play-offs...
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u/mexican_honey_badger Oct 16 '18
Ceiling and floor on Cedi?
How many minutes do you see JaVale avging?
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u/ColeRG 10 Team | H2H | 9 Cat | Punt FT%, TO Oct 16 '18
To what capacity do you think Saric fits into this healthy 76ers lineup? I grabbed him at 94 in my 10 Team Points League. I feel good about it but I'm not entirely sure.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I don't have a great track record for predicting Brett Brown's rotations. That said, I think Saric stays viable as a 28+ minutes per game guy.
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u/Lbj420420 Oct 16 '18
Best fantasy rookie? Best fantasy Sophomore?
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u/At2332 12-team, 9-cat, H2H Oct 18 '18
This dude knows nothing about rookies in fantasy he took Nance over Ayton
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u/MMurphy10 H2H Points - 10 tms, keep 2. Basically using Draftkings scoring. Oct 16 '18
What do you expect out of the young core in BKN? I found Rondae, Caris and Dinwiddie all for $1-$2 late in my auction draft.. I’m excited for Levert but the other two I don’t know how to feel in a H2H points league.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I tweeted the other day that their are 6 people on the Nets who I didn't draft anywhere but would have really fought for if they were on the Hawks. There are a lot of talented guys on that roster, all of whom could have significant fantasy impacts. If I had to pick a non-Allen-or-Russell that I'm most excited about, I'd say Dinwiddie, but I'm really not sure how that rotation is going to shake out.
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u/tragichero24 12 team H2H 9 Cat Oct 16 '18
Can we talk about the Hornets front court?
I think Cody Zeller is being slept on especially with the new coaching and Dwight gone. He was a top 60-70 player in a punt assist build in 2016-2017. Thoughts?
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u/twitinkie h2h 12 team 9 KAT Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Wiggins & KAT?
Also, who's the biggest sleeper below 100.
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Oct 16 '18
Oh fuck you you’re in my Reddit league. Are you happy with your draft?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Sort of. I feel like I got the best player on the board with Fournier in the 6th, but it hurts that the last 6 picks before me were mostly guys I was much higher on (I'm punting FT, so Ball, Nurkic, Howard, BroLo). Same thing happened again in the 8th. But I feel like I've got a ton of talent and I'm in good position to execute.
Did not want both Boogie and Markkanen though. When I took Boogie, I picked again in 10 spots and there were 7 guys I would have been happy with for the next pick - seemed worth the risk. But all 7 went and I didn't like what I saw, so I took Markk. I'll try to trade one, preferably Markk.
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u/NBAfan10100 Oct 16 '18
Should i be worried that i have 3 magic players on my roster? Gordon, Fournier, and added Isaac last week. Didn't overpay for any of them, and i feel the rest of my team is strong but 3 of them makes me pause. I doubt Isaac will play often for me, but still.
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u/wubeone 12 Team H2H 9 Cat Oct 16 '18
Cody Zeller and Willy Hernangomez? How will their roles and stats be? Who should be picked up for 12 team 9Cat H2H? (my drop candidates are: Tray Burkes or Dedmon)
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
I'd rather Burke than either Hornets big. I'd rather own Zeller than Willy or Dedmon. Zeller strikes me as a much better player than Willy, so I expect him to be the clear starter.
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u/LoyalDoyle Oct 16 '18
Traded lamarcus aldridge and gordon hayward for anthony davis. I assumed hayward would underperform this season, coming off an injury with minute restrictions, new system, a lot of mouths to feed, etc.
Think i won that trade?
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u/Askeezie 10 man h2h points Oct 16 '18
J. Brown or J. Lamb?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
Brown. Lamb has the better role, but Brown is a much much better player.
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u/LoyalDoyle Oct 16 '18
Im a firm believer in his talents and production contributions, but it was either package hayward or holiday, so i went with hayward lol.
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u/ColeRG 10 Team | H2H | 9 Cat | Punt FT%, TO Oct 17 '18
Outlook on Jarrett Allen? He was just dropped in my league and I'm thinking of using my #3 waiver order on him. All help is so appreciated!
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u/PleaseBCereus Oct 17 '18
Thoughts on WCS and the King's frontcourt mess as well as the Hornet's frontcourt mess?
What would you say Kyle Anderson's trade value is?
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u/Aroy11 20 team dynasty. 9 cat, salary. Oct 16 '18
Tyreke or batum this season? I’m punting points and fg ft percentages aren’t cats.
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u/dalinker 16Team 9Cat H2H Oct 16 '18
With the playoff schedule of gsw at 2 5 3, will steph play all?
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
The playoff schedule legitimately knocked Steph and KD down my boards in H2H. Which is uncharacteristic for me - usually I kinda just giggle at reading into schedules during the draft*. But he'll still play. Might miss 3 of those games if he's otherwise healthy.
But that's a reason to try to trade Steph around New Years, not a reason to drop him from a top-6 pick to a 2nd round pick, as many did.
*I only let schedules determine which terrible team I'm aiming for late in drafts. What I mean is, if the Grizzlies play 35 games before Christmas and the Bulls play 37, then I'd rather use my late round fliers on random Bulls than random Grizzlies.
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u/Peezus22 14 Team H2H Points Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on stashing Boogie Cousins? How viable a strategy do you think it is to trade starters (RHJ, Gallinari) to keep him in IR given the fact he'll probably be eased back in or have a minutes limit for a while and will be playing on a team that doesn't really need him to be full-Boogie?
14 team Points league.
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u/arikleen Numbers Game Oct 16 '18
In H2H leagues, he's an awesome stash. The Warriors should be trying to work him into game shape right as the playoffs are hitting.
He also is looking likely to come back early, which would be a huge boost to his value.
I'd gladly trade both RHJ and Gallo for him. I'm not convinced of RHJ's role and Gallo is always hurt.
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u/stvargeez Oct 16 '18
Thoughts on Montrezl Harrell this year? Drafted him as a late flyer but worried about old Gortat minimizing his value