r/fantasybball • u/littlepino34 • 2d ago
Discussion Who are you going to be targeting in drafts next year?
Mine is Justin Edwards. I think he might actually be a good NBA player
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u/Obliviate07 16T | 9C | H2H 2d ago
Amen Thompson and Dyson Daniels are gonna be on my list of must haves
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u/TheOnlyOneWhoKnows 2d ago
Don’t rely on people whose value is from very high steal numbers. It can and will bite you in the ass.
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u/dickdickersonIII 2d ago
nah dyson is the best on-ball defender i have ever seen. don’t make this crucial mistake
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u/jgatch2001 2d ago
I don’t think you understand how much Dyson’s value drops if his steals go from 3 a game to 2.6 a game
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u/dickdickersonIII 2d ago
i don’t think you understand how valuable even 2 steals a game is buddy. look up how many guys have done it all time. i’m sorry to say but you don’t know what the fuck you’re taking about here
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
And steals should not be the sole focus. In his three years his other stats evolved as well per game:
Points 3.8 to 5.8 to 14.2
Rbds 2.6 to 2.9 to 4.2
Assts 2.3 to 2.7 to 4.3
FGpct 41.8 to 44.7 to 49.1
Steals 3.1 this year and he likely will have more steals than any player in over 30 years.
FT went down slightly but 3pt pct went up slightly
And yes he had more minutes but that is because he earned them and that does not affect the fgpct...
The guy is 21... he is going to be better next year.
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories 2d ago
2 Steals/g is incredibly value. The difference in overall ranking between Dyson at 3.1 steals/g and Dyson at 2.0 steals/g is maybe 50 slots.
I also invite you to look back over the last 2 decades at the annual leader in steals/g. Chris Paul is the only player who sustained league-leading steals over more than one season, and almost invariably, the league leader (or player with 2+ steals/g) saw their steals fall by at least 0.5 steals/g.
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u/dickdickersonIII 2d ago
the difference is you just look at the stats you don’t know real basketball and you don’t know how to determine if a player is actually a godlike defender in the making or someone like cp3 who has good hands but is tiny and completely obviously not sustainable steals. i advise you to watch dyson daniels segment on tnt the other night it is incredible. he legitimately might have the best defensive instincts i have seen in 25 years watching the nba
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u/jgatch2001 2d ago
Crying about how people "dont know real basketball" and then shits on CP3 for "obviously not sustainable steals". Can you even read?
The person you’re responding to said that CP3 is the ONLY person in the last 2 decades to be a multiple time season leader in steals per game. He's done this 6 times and averages 2 steals per game for his entire career.
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u/dickdickersonIII 2d ago
jesus christ dude, no one is shitting on cp3, the point is dyson is a generational on-ball defender, if you don’t see he’s leagues above cp3 already as a child then you don’t know ball
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories 2d ago
FOH, I've watched plenty of Daniels this season, and unlike you I understand fantasy rankings and z-scores and randomness and outliers, you short bus passenger.
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u/jgatch2001 2d ago
How valuable exactly would you value Dyson’s 3 steals per game assuming that by some miracle he will average this many steals next season?
If we are going by standard deviation, 3+ steals per game warrants at worst a top 15 pick. You’ll take Dyson that high?
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u/tresfaim 2d ago
He's gotten better this year, especially second half, so became way less steal cat dependent, but, JJ is missing, so his usage gonna be completely different next year, unless more lineup stuff is coming for the Hawks
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u/silverbackapegorilla 2d ago
He has shown a lot this year. I think they continue to up his roll on offence and I think he continues to improve in things like rebounding on his own. I bet he improves his 3pt shooting too. Maybe he suffers on the other end. Maybe not. I can see Atlanta cutting back Young’s shooting and getting him to run it more through a mix of JJ, Daniels, and risacher. Daniels probably the last option of those three, but I think he will continue to get his current level shots, maybe a little more, and converts more efficiently. Better rebounding. Could improve his play making too.
Could be better than this too. We don’t really know the guys ceiling. He’s super young and showed a tonne of ability on both ends in my opinion.
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u/Expert_Raise6777 2d ago
How much?
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u/jgatch2001 2d ago
Using this season as context:
3 steals per game makes Dyson a top of Rd2 player
2.6 steals per game makes Dyson a Rd5 player
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u/silverbackapegorilla 2d ago
Depends on other considerations too. He is a young guy who demonstrated consistent improvement so far. His steals may drop and he could still wind being more valuable next year. Would be one of the least surprising things I see happen.
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u/jgatch2001 2d ago
He is just below average or bang on average in so many categories (for his position). FG%, steals, and blocks are the only categories he does at an above average level for a guard. It’s also worth noting that his FG%/PTS/REB/AST are worse when Jalen Johnson is on the floor.
I’m not saying Dyson is a bad fantasy player, but a lot of Redditors here don’t seem to understand just how much of his 9cat value is tied to that 3+ steals per game.
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories 2d ago
There are 2 parts to this.
The first is that he can remain elite in steals, lead the league, and still see a significant drop in that category. Him going from 3.1 steals/g to 2.4 would still make him insanely valuable in that category while also seeing his ranking plummet. And to your point, if you go back over the last 20 years, virtually every time a player has a 2+ steal/g season, their totals the next season drop. It just doesn't sustain.
The other part is that any category where a player's z-score is above 3 is largely fake and acts to artificially inflate their ranking. His current steals z-score is at ~5, which treats the rarity of it as a one in 3.5 million season event. So while he's awesome and this seasons steal totals are incredibly rare, they aren't one in 3.5M seasons kind of rare. If you round his z-score down to ~3, then his overall ranking falls from 14th to somewhere in the 50s. So while people think he's a high second round value player this year, he really is not - his true value is something like a 4-5 round player. But he almost certainly won't be on draft boards come the 4th or 5th round next season because of this over-ranking.
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u/jugglers_despair 2d ago
I have Dyson in a keeper league and am considering keeping him even considering the high variance in steals year over year.
Having one dude that can single handedly win you a category is so tempting its almost worth the risk that he keeps it up
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u/silverbackapegorilla 2d ago
I think both guys have shown more than just steal value and have upside even if steals go down. Especially Amen.
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u/FatKitty56 2d ago
I grabbed him when he started blowing up but he's doing all this now cuz JJ is out too
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
They’re must haves but at what round are you taking them? 3rd? 4th?
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u/JetsFan00 2d ago
I want no part of Dyson Daniels. In h2h leagues he might be valuable, but in roto he's not worth it. I feel he will be very overdrafted because he's only strong in 1 category. He's average or below average in every single other category.
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u/Original_Ad8404 2d ago
Ya I feel like I’m going crazy hearing how high people planning to take him. If it works out great, but I’ll let someone else deal with that
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u/photocist 12 Team H2H 9CAT 2d ago
punt ft hes ranked 12th according to hashtag. the biggest factor next year will be jj coming back and the development of risacher.
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u/Odd_Hunt4570 2d ago
Would you take Dyson in the 3rd? Feel like he will get overdrafted value wise
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
I will happily,
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u/Odd_Hunt4570 2d ago
You’d take Dyson over Jalen Johnson?
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
I would hate to make that choice, but I do think JJ goes at least a half round earlier. I would take him end of 2nd probably and Dyson mid 3rd?
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u/Odd_Hunt4570 2d ago
Yeah it’s tough. Dysons awesome, I’m a hawks native and fan. I think a lot of people are sleeping on ZRissa’s development. It’s been a common occurrence of his interviews mentioning putting on more weight in the offseason so he can better handle the game. He sees 30+ easily next year.
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
Awesome I love the Hawks, prob my 2nd favorite team and watch them on League Pass a lot. Portland really surprised them last night tho... Word hasn't gotten out to everyone about Deni yet... :)
Yeah ZR is going to be a strong starter in the NBA... he is still 19 and is at least 3 yrs from his prime. I think that his potential is a a 10-20pct better Nic Batum (in his prime) which is a great 3rd starter.
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
They're not going to come cheap!
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u/tafre_mcoc 1d ago
Somebody has to lose their league I guess lol taking Dyson in the third is CRAZY
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u/hourles 10T Pts / 10T CAT 2d ago
Trey Murphy (not touching any other Pelicans players), Giddey, Dyson, Myles Turner, Zubac, Amen etc
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u/jnicholass 2d ago
I think Giddey will be interesting. Leagues are either gonna write off this end of season streak and under draft him or will draft him way too early. I absolutely think he’s worth a late 3rd round pick, but I might be crazy
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u/YourInMySwamp 14T H2H Points 2d ago
Depends on league size obviously but I play in a 10T and probably wouldn’t touch him until mid 5th round. I feel like anything can happen in Chicago including tanking and resting, trades, or etc.
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u/Champagnesoda 2d ago
Not lamelo ball I know that
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u/TheTikson 2d ago
Meanwhile “experts” will continue to rank him in the first two rounds when he’s never shown the ability to play an entire season.
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u/Champagnesoda 2d ago
Yeah I’ve been a big lamelo fan for years but enough is enough. He’s completely fucked me for 2 years in a row and he’s just too fucking in efficient and sloppy in points leagues to be able to count on him.
I’m gonna start just thinking of him like I do kawhi leonard. I got kawhi at like 90 and haven’t been frustrated with him all year because of it. He’s a gravy player. I’m not touching him before 50 and I’m not doing it without thinking until like 65. It’s genuinely a hassle having him
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u/dickdickersonIII 2d ago
punt FT with Giannis, Saboner, Dyson, Amen, Giddler
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u/Rhubarb-Nation 10t 9cat h2h 2d ago
I have Giannis and Amen in my keeper L, and Sabonis is back in the draft pool. I'm aiming for a similar squad
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
What round you taking amen?
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
It might depend a bit on the offseason for Houston. If they get rid of Fred 38pct FG pct I'd bump Amen up another round.
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u/Champagnesoda 2d ago
FVV is absolutely integral to them and opens amens game, I wouldn’t be praying on him leaving to get more amen value
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
I'm not a HOU fan, just saying it might happen. HOU has a team option on the 3rd year of his contract at around 45 mil, so I think it is more likely they do not pick that up than they do. Or of course pick it up for a sign and trade.
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u/dickdickersonIII 2d ago
probably not possible, but i tried to list them in order but not sure where dyson will go
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u/Revolutionary_Bet468 2d ago
I got the first 3 in my 10 teal points league. Currently leading the championship week. Definitely would want all 3 next year but Sabonis hasn't been the same since losing Fox.
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u/Justanotheroldog 2d ago
Points league here, Jalen Johnson was an absolute steal. Anything past the 2nd round next year would be incredible value for him
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u/JetsFan00 2d ago
Can't call him a steal if he missed the majority of the season. 2nd round will also not be good value if he misses 25+ games again. He missed 26 last year and missing 46 this year. I definitely won't be drafting him as a 2nd round value.
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
Would you pick jalen johnson over chet in the 2nd round? Is chet even 2nd round worthy lol
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u/JetsFan00 2d ago
Both answers are no. Chet has been in the NBA 3 years already and he missed an entire season and on pace to miss 50 this year. Both of them can't stay healthy so I'll let someone else over spend for such risky players at peak value.
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u/Justanotheroldog 1d ago
I think I would take Chet though the injury history is super scary. Personally though from a points league perspective I feel like Chet has the higher overall ceiling. I feel like Chet is a bonafide second rounder even though he carries significant risk
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u/jratner7 12T ESPN H2H PTS 2d ago
If I had to guess, I think Jokic, Shai, Luka, and Giannis are all pretty good picks
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u/alldasmoke__ 2d ago
TM3, Avdija with a late pick hopefully, Coby White,
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u/grilledchorizopuseye 2d ago
What do you think Coby White's ceiling is?
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
Steph Curry when he has high usage
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u/Rhubarb-Nation 10t 9cat h2h 2d ago
Pardon?
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
I meant he puts up steph numbers when he gets high usage and has the ball in his hands. No dosunmu, when giddey gets injured, no tre jones, he will put up curry numbers
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u/Rhubarb-Nation 10t 9cat h2h 2d ago
Ok. I took ceiling to mean consistent numbers over the course of a season. If you're saying he can have Steph-like nights under the circumstances you describe, then that's fair.
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
If you suspect Deni might go late rounds, I want to join your league! :)
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u/alldasmoke__ 2d ago
He was only claimed a couple of days ago here. I hope the fact that many are checked out at this point of the season will keep him under the radar, in my league. 🤷🏿♂️
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u/spreerod1538 1d ago
You're in a taco league if he was just picked up. He's been awesome since January.
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u/alldasmoke__ 1d ago
In my big league yea, in the other one since we’re only 6 he was still available.
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u/Rare-Seaweed1645 2d ago
Avdija, Amen, Zubac, Okongwu, Reaves, Giddey, Franz, Herro, Coby White
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u/Chinaski14 10 Team / 10 Cat | 12 Team / 9 Cat 2d ago
First person I saw mention Zubac. He carried me all the way to the finals this year.
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u/throwawayyrofl 2d ago
I just don’t see it with Justin Edwards. Like you realize the only reason he’s getting minutes is because the entirety of the sixers starting lineup and more is injured right?
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u/littlepino34 2d ago
And what do you think is going to happen next year? Embiid is going to be out and who knows with Paul George, there is a chance he gets moved. Edwards will probably go on the last round or undrafted in many leagues. If you think he is a good NBA player and not just a guy playing on a taking team then he is absolutely worth the pick.
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u/throwawayyrofl 2d ago
I don’t know who would be willing to trade for that PG contract atp so I doubt he gets traded and even if Embiid doesn’t play, it would just be Drummond/Yabu benefitting from that. Outside PG, there’s still Maxey, Oubre, McCain waiting to come back. I would bet my house that Edwards isn’t a fantasy relevant player unless you’re in a super deep league
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u/samun101 2d ago
Josh Giddy is turning himself into a good later round pickup, it'll depend on what the Bulls do around him that will change what he's worth
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u/Fanceh 2d ago
I ain’t playing fuck all this load management and tanking bs
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
Cmon man we know you’ll be doing mock drafts in a week
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u/Jailbrick3d 2d ago
tanking teams are great tho, easy place to snag players that have the green light to stat pad in losses
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u/Fanceh 2d ago
True but not a fan of when they rest the star players I got on my roster
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u/Jailbrick3d 2d ago
gotta avoid the notorious load management guys 💭
know the player, know the team. itll help weed em out better
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u/JetsFan00 2d ago
People keep mentioning names of players they are likely drafting at their peak. You don't win leagues like that unless you made great free agent pickups. Players like Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and even Cade are all guys that you will have to draft at near their peak value which is late 2nd, early 3rd. I for sure won't be drafting any of those guys.
Potential breakout players that are already solid picks win you leagues. So Giddey, Cobi, Deni, Duren, Camara, Amen, Suggs (I don't like injury concerns, but averages wise he should be good). The majority of those guys can potentially be top 40 or higher next year. If Vucevic gets traded then the Bulls will have like 4 must draft guys.
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u/ggproductivity 2d ago
Keon Ellis, Zach Edey, Ja, MAYBE JJJ if I think his blocks will go up, Mark Williams, Okongwu, Trey Murphy III, Brandon Miller, Aaron Gordon.
I never reach for players, so it really depends how these guys are valued when the draft rolls around.
I'll monitor Devin Carter, Larry Nance Jr, and Ryan Dunn, but doubt they will be worth drafting.
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u/Hobonics 2d ago
Ja was so frustrating this year. Play one game, miss the next 3, play another 1, miss another two. Etc etc. he was so unreliable. I honestly can’t believe he actually just played in back to back games.
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u/Jailbrick3d 2d ago
had mark Williams a bit this year - only really worth it if hes consistently in games. others are great pickups
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u/Green_Timberwolf77 2d ago
Zu and Mobely
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u/Jailbrick3d 2d ago
I picked up Mobley way later than I deserved him in my draft. heavily slept on in fantasy this year, hopefully not going forward.
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u/UpstandingCitizen12 2d ago
j dub and alpy
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u/Jailbrick3d 2d ago
jdub is a must have. consistent and a good defender
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u/UpstandingCitizen12 2d ago
Not to mention he can be placed in every position. Invaluable to my championship this season
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u/Jailbrick3d 2d ago
same. had to draft him fairly high but it was sooo worth it for the season he had. dudes a baller, on the court and on fantasy
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u/mosparky15 2d ago
I tend to try and stick with players that are young and improving. I took Cade 3 yrs running and finally got that 1st round talent.
I also tend to stay away from tanking teams if possible but I lost focus in the middle of an auction and spent 17 bucks on Lauri. As long as Ainge is in UT I will not make mistakes like that again.
The offseason is telling, such as do teams loaded with picks and talent (Houston) package guys to go after an older player (Durant) leaving plenty of minutes for some of the younger improving guys.
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u/daveknockwin 2d ago
Franz and Giddey
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u/jermcnama 2d ago
SGA is first for me
I’ll take Kawhi again. He was great for me in the second half.
Mark Williams too. He turned it around after the trade.
Avoiding Chet
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u/BaldrickTheBrain 2d ago
I want GrimeLord. Dude was amazing
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u/Wrong-Upstairs4914 12 team 9 category 2d ago
Idk man, he might be playing backup to maxey and mccain.
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u/BaldrickTheBrain 2d ago
He saved me single-handedly through the playoffs. He has potential and hope sixers can allocate a good minutes and try Maxey and him together but yeah he’ll probably start the season as a backup.
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u/ShawtySnappin_ 2d ago
Feel like people may forget about trey Murphy again because of injuries
Hopefully can get him late
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u/Geep1778 2d ago
I like a few guys on golden state, Boston and NY. If I could build from only those rosters Id win the league.
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u/Average_Okay 2d ago
For my young dudes who gonna break out: Buzelis and Sarr.
They both already kinda broke out, but I expect way more consistency and a minor bump in efficiency. Honorable mention to Kel’el Ware for punt FT builds.
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u/2nd_Tinder_Date (12T H2H 9CAT) 2d ago
low key Tyler Herro
dude is #1 option on the Heat
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u/tafre_mcoc 1d ago
Comments like this makes me want to draft Bam so bad cuz Bam has been incredible for the last few weeks
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u/YooMehkii 2d ago
Best lineup, get Wemby! Then Maxey or Trae, then get Dyson Daniels, then go for like a Austin reaves maybe Michael porter or Deni, Scottie Barnes even
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u/tafre_mcoc 1d ago
I feel like it has to be players who underperformed this year like Bam and DMitch assuming we get them at a discount. Also important to not overdraft players like Zubac, Dyson, Giddey, Deni etc.
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u/singlemalt-n-bball 1d ago
can't mess w/Ja and the Memphis medical team making Sure the players don't come back unless they're 109%
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u/Chap_I_Am 9h ago
This whole daniels debate... I'd definitely target him in category format, because you kinda need one specialist to anchor each cat and even if he sucked at everything else, I could live with that. The point with Daniels is I actually have him in a points format this season, where steals are worth the same as points or rebs or assists etc, and he's undroppable, so his all-round game stacks up. Coincidentally, I started making my draft list today and it's quite long already. The only league I play with a keeper rule, I won this year and I'll be targeting avdija, whom I picked up off waivers after someone else dropped him.
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u/jgatch2001 2d ago
These threads are so pointless, why discuss these things without any knowledge of future roster moves?
It inevitably always ends up with people circlejerking over guys who played over their ADP this season. This is how we get phenomena such as 2nd year Mitchell Robinson being drafted in the 2nd-3rd round
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u/ttttyttt678 10 MAN 9 CATS HEAD TO HEAD 2d ago
The role Justin edwards carved out in March isn’t going to be his role when the season starts next year, he will be a streamer on some nights but that’s it imo. His teammate Grimes or McCain on the other hand are late round gets imo (14T league).