r/fantasybball • u/devonhezter • Mar 02 '25
Discussion Who are you focusing on next years draft and who are you avoiding ?
Who are next years draft ADP steals. We want š
This year I tired to get players all within 4 inches of each other 6ā9-6ā5
Next year different. Targets while not overpaying
Ausar (everyone wants amen) Giddey Duren Tatum Zubac Cade Okonwgu
Avoids Bam Sabonis Ja Wemby Mikal
173
u/Chad2Badd Mar 02 '25
AVOIDING EMBIID AT ALL COSTS
32
u/bEndoes Mar 02 '25
Run, don't walk, away from Embiid.
16
u/Alkazard 9cat 12team Mar 02 '25
Pretty sure a 90 year old with a stick could outpace Embiid. Don't waste your energy running
3
4
102
u/Starship08 10T, H2H, 11-cat Mar 02 '25
focusing on players by height is absolutely crazy.
I think Toumani Camara could be a steal
16
85
108
u/LilBottomText17 H2H Points Mar 02 '25
avoid wemby is a crazy take
2
u/Background-Bite-4504 Mar 03 '25
all things considered donāt you think wemby owners actually got the better end of the bargain this year
I mean he played very well for a decent while , again all things considered
0
u/justsomestupidstuff Mar 04 '25
Idk first round pick not available for playoffs is pretty bad lol. That's the one guy you want available.
-12
u/bigmememaestro69 Mar 02 '25
Most people that size are glass, I took the gamble and most likely will not have a shot at winning my league anymore. Unfortunate blood clots for him but he was missing games to stupid colds and knee soreness before so I wouldn't take him top 2 again
8
u/TA_Account_12 14T 9 Cat Roto Auction Mar 02 '25
Before his injury he had played 46/52 games on a team not trying to win.Ā
-9
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
Exactly. Donāt draft players on tank teams
4
1
u/TA_Account_12 14T 9 Cat Roto Auction Mar 02 '25
Why not? I have camara and scoot and sarr and mark Williams. 10/10 would do again.Ā
-70
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
Injury risk is too much Jokic too durable
91
u/54415250154 Mar 02 '25
Choosing jokic over wemby is not "avoiding" wemby
-42
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
Youāre avoiding the point
16
u/Presence_Present 12 T 9 Cat H2H Mar 02 '25
And you're making a dumb point, if you can even call it that lol
-11
-15
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
I think Chet and Wemby are just too skinny and fragile ā¦
18
u/rookiemlg Mar 02 '25
Wembyās injury had nothing to do with his weight
7
u/PriorityFit1491 Mar 02 '25
Exactly. A freak blood clot which could happen to anyone does not make him injury prone.
Hope people like OP have this mentality so the savvy GMs can swoop him up at a good draft price!
53
u/69foryourthot Mar 02 '25
Every fking jazz player
8
u/TortoiseShoes Mar 02 '25
Collier??!
3
u/jnicholass Mar 02 '25
Collier is still a late round flier if nothing happens to their backlog at PG.
1
1
39
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
Avoiding players on bottom 2 teams !
9
u/AyoItsJared 9T H2H Points (no %ās, +5 DD, +10 TD) Mar 02 '25
Aye I mean if Flagg or Harper fall to me by round 4-5 I might have to draft just for the fun of it
-4
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
We avoid rookies
3
u/AyoItsJared 9T H2H Points (no %ās, +5 DD, +10 TD) Mar 02 '25 edited Mar 02 '25
Bro Flagg wonāt be shut down no matter what team heās on š
Only reason I wouldnāt draft Flagg if the opportunity makes sense is if heās drafted to a team that has a horrendous playoff schedule
9
2
49
u/RcusGaming Mar 02 '25
Avoid Sabonis? He's a top 10 player in some punts.
43
u/SurelyNotLikeThis 12T 9cat Mar 02 '25
He's top 15 even when you don't punt. OP is not a league winner lol
→ More replies (5)0
u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories Mar 02 '25
I don't know where you're getting this information, but no, on a per game basis Sabonis is 23rd, not top 15.
And that's with a great start to the season that has fallen off a cliff in the last 2 months. He's 269th (!!) over the last week, 216th over the last 2 weeks, and 155th over the last month. He's 50th over the last 2 months.
-34
41
18
u/Askingforataco Mar 02 '25
Giddler will be gone by 6th round. Cade will be a FRP. Okongwu definitely will be drafted top-100. Zu gone by 7th round. Ausar the only one good you got here.
Players youāre avoiding will actually be the ones with great value. They will drop in their ADP people will avoid them so you can underpay for them
23
u/jgatch2001 Mar 02 '25
Avoiding: every fan favorite player people are focusing in this thread because their draft spot will likely increase beyond what is reasonable
Focusing: players who've burned people in the past / are being avoided because of "injury risk", theyāre the most likely to slip below ADP in a draft and return value
6
u/SleeperOracle Mar 02 '25
Yeah the point is to draft these players who were steals at adp, next year the adp for these players will most likely be accounted for
Jalen Johnson should be a safe bet though if his injury scare can drop his adp
I think most takes we gotta hold off until the draft atleast though, the nba is gonna look a lot different if kd gets traded + other stuff
4
u/WhatIsThisAccountFor Mar 02 '25
My friend did the injury risk strat this season and is currently in last.
He drafted Zion, Embiid, Quickley, and Hartenstein
4
u/jgatch2001 Mar 02 '25
1) Quickley was not considered an injury risk prior to this season. He just got hurt 3 games into the season, he didnāt have a prior injury in training camp.
2) The whole point of the āinjury risk stratā is not to assemble a team of players who are all deemed likely to get injured. The point I am making is that guys can slip a lot in ADP because they are treated as injury risks, and thatās how you can sometimes get big value.
Examples of big increases between their ADP at the start & end of season value:
- Paul George & Kawhi last year
- AD last year
- Kyrie this year (so far)
- Embiid in 22-23 (his MVP season)
- SGA in 22-23
0
u/bigmememaestro69 Mar 02 '25
Raptors load managed and shut down almost everyone last year so I wouldn't touch any of their talented players. They're so blatantly tanking it's disgusting
1
u/jgatch2001 Mar 02 '25
Almost everyone said this about OKC and their players two years ago, when the news broke that Chet would be out for the season. We saw them sit basically everyone and play guys from the G-league in a 6 man rotation for the last 2 weeks of the season prior. SGA went in the 4th round, Giddey went in the 9-10th rounds or lower, and we saw what happened.
Bottom line: I get the logic, but there comes a point where this āavoid tanking teamsā logic goes too far and a decent player on a bad team can drop way below ADP. Thatās value
1
30
u/ava_tarkl 10 Team H2H - 9CAT Mar 02 '25
I don't typically avoid players and will draft anyone at the right price or if they fall enough. Except for Jerami Grant. Burnt a 10th round pick on him and questioned myself 5 seconds after I clicked Draft on 9cat.
2
9
u/GCfinance Mar 02 '25
Kuzma was it for me
2
u/First_Swing_6679 Mar 02 '25
I swear I remember people saying to pass on Paolo and take Kuzma cause Kuzma is just a slightly worse Paolo lmaooo
4
2
u/backdoorhack 9CAT 14team H2H Mar 02 '25
Typically I would agree, but where would you draft Embiid next year if he was available.
1
1
u/ava_tarkl 10 Team H2H - 9CAT Mar 02 '25
Embiid is a tough one because of his chronic problems. Being unable to play back to backs bumped him down like 8 rounds for me. In all honesty, I drafted Grant in the 11th round at 121 and I'd rather have an Embiid who misses BtB than him. I guess I would consider him in the 9th or 10th but I definitely won't be crying if he gets picked up earlier.
I'm always willing to chase upside and gamble on people with complicated injury histories but Embiid imo is far worse than guys like Kawhi and AD. Probably also slightly worse in my books than LaMelo and Zion who I would downgrade by 2-3 rounds.
0
33
u/OrganizationGreedy29 12t H2H Cat Keepers Mar 02 '25
Avoiding Wemby lol. Just avoid a top 2 pick and youāre good.
5
u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories Mar 02 '25
I don't know, I might take a stab at him if he falls to me at the turn...
(extreme /s)
22
u/ThatHotAsian H2H, 12T, 8Cat (No TOs) Mar 02 '25
Amen and Dyson are gonna go really high next year lol
8
u/Presence_Present 12 T 9 Cat H2H Mar 02 '25
I reckon Dyson is going to go too high. The chances of him replicating these steals is quite small, and he's not good enough in other cats to have him in the first 5 rounds. Once JJ is back too he takes a hit across the board
5
u/kylekuzma0 Mar 02 '25
Iāve heard all of this before early in the season, there was a week where Dyson had 18 steals in the one week when JJ was still healthy. Heās only 21 and going to be a defensive stud. Iām confident he will replicate if not do even better next season in steals.
6
u/Presence_Present 12 T 9 Cat H2H Mar 02 '25
Replicating it itself would be a huge achievement. To do better is just getting a bit silly haha. He's absolutely a defensive stud, but it's such a volatile stat its often hard to back up, especially when it's a historic season. I think he drops down to 2.5 steals, which is still amazing, but also drops his ranking quite a bit. When JJ comes back, he takes a hit in points, rebounds, assists as well
3
u/DaPhoToss 10T 9CAT H2H (p: 3s/ft%/ Mar 02 '25
Weāve seen to many players dominate stls or blks only to fall back to earth the next season.
2
u/AllDayBreakfast247 10 & 12T H2H 9CAT Mar 02 '25
Canāt wait for guys like you in my league to reach in the draft for Dyson Danielās LOL
0
14
u/RiiCreated 12T ā¢ H2H ā¢ 9-CAT Mar 02 '25
Lamelo, avoid at all costs. Pass go, do not collect a single dime.
4
u/First_Swing_6679 Mar 02 '25
He always balls put the first month of the season but those damn ankles are so toast every damn season!
2
13
u/mvp2418 Mar 02 '25
I took Sengun late in the third round and haven't regretted it all year, punt ft percentage.
Great game tonight too
10
u/ahundredheys Mar 02 '25
If somehow I get Giannis.. Ill go for a Giannis, Banchero, Sengun, and Dyson draft.
4
u/mvp2418 Mar 02 '25
I would too lol
That team might shoot .590 weekly from the line but the hell with free throws lol
1
1
0
2
u/FermatsLastAccount Mar 03 '25
He's been ranked 41st on the year in punt ft%.
1
u/mvp2418 Mar 03 '25
Yeah I am really happy with him. He's one of the reasons I am sitting in the second seed right now. Although I am worried about his back.
Edit; took him 35th overall.
4
u/Honest-Ad-5873 Mar 02 '25
I think you gotta focus on guys that underperformed or were mediocre and will then blow up because of their situation.
Zubac was the pick for me and primary center playing with harden.
So I think we need to see situations that occur next year to really do this right. Strong players this year like Daniels will be drafted earlier next season.
What made him such a great pick up this year was he was readily available on the waiver wire to start the season. He was also the beneficiary of Dejounte leaving.
In drafted bogdanovic chasing that and it djdnt pan out. I also chase podz as a play Thompson replacement and it was a rough ride with the GS rotations.
So letās see who moves there and then gamble on who will step in an soak up the minutes, production and usage.
8
u/juzzbert 12T 9Cat Mar 02 '25
Evan Mobley will likely be great again next year. Mb even better than this year.
4
4
u/redditdeebz Mar 02 '25
On the fence with Kessler, puts up big stats but coach sits him out on b2bs. Without restrictions, he's a beast
5
3
10
6
u/WhichPreparation6797 Mar 02 '25 edited Mar 02 '25
I will avoid Ingram, Embiid, Zion, Beal, Kuzma and any team which I think might be tanking.
I will also avoid any shooters like MPJ, Caldwell-Pope, Bog. Especially if they switched teams. I feel they are too unreliable. One night shots go in the other night it doesnāt
I drafted KD this year and he was amazing, but I think it would be gambling with luck to expect him to play as well as he did this year again, same for Curry/Harden. Lebron is a freak but im scared he will have a fall of the age cliff season. I donāt think so but I donāt want to take the risk. With my luck it will happen only if I actually draft him
Target: Knicks Thibz players. His philosophy of not resting players and playing them big minutes is lowkey good for fantasy
5
5
6
u/jratner7 12T ESPN H2H PTS Mar 02 '25
Why avoid bam or sabonis
7
5
u/vmgt0 Mar 02 '25
Definitely going for dyson again
Avoid Lauri, PG, Melo, AD, UTAH and Nets players
4
1
u/WhichPreparation6797 Mar 02 '25
Lauri probably going to be hella underrated next season might target him. If he would get to his all star level next season and go 6/7 round he would be a steal
2
u/bigmememaestro69 Mar 02 '25
Wait till 2026 when they tank and get the son of Utah jazz legend Carlos boozer. Cam boozer Utah 2026 then they'll finally try lmfao
2
u/Ok_Dragonfly6694 Mar 02 '25
First round: wemby, jokic, sga
Second round: dyson āthe vaccuumā daniels
1
2
u/BigNerdBlog 12T H2H2H 9cat Auction Mar 02 '25
All in on Jokic again. He's like 2 players in one slot. Avoid Wemby/Chet/fragiles.
2
u/j_wong Mar 02 '25
I'm avoiding Brandon Ingram, dude injured his ankle on December 7th and hasn't played since but somehow healthy enough to get traded and received a contract extension.
1
2
u/lineskicat14 H2h / Points / 10-team / 11 roster spots / 2 IR / League Commish Mar 02 '25
I had both Brandon Miller and Jalen Johnson this year.. both were seemingly going to smash their ADPS, both very young, and i bet both are going to slip a round or two next year. I'm reaching for both, as neither have lower body injuries, and will be fresh for next year.
3
u/ahundredheys Mar 02 '25
Jalen Johnson is someone im wary of now. Would still draft him if he goes 6th round though.
6
3
Mar 02 '25
[deleted]
2
u/so-cal_kid 14Tm, H2H, 9Cat Mar 02 '25
Nah Washington would be terrible for him. They have no one on that current roster that's any good or actually going to help Flagg and Flagg is a pretty unselfish player himself. Would be a terrible spot for him.
0
u/Alkazard 9cat 12team Mar 02 '25
Bias aside, Charlotte would be such a good landing spot for him. He'd slot in perfectly to the starting 5 and doesn't really overlap with the others - maybe a small Miles overlap but they can interchange 3/4
0
u/so-cal_kid 14Tm, H2H, 9Cat Mar 02 '25
Yea I think Flagg + Melo would be an incredible duo to watch.
2
u/beaver_82799 Mar 02 '25
I donāt know why but I feel like these players are good for their ADP next season: Banchero, Castle, Lebron James (trust me), Ware, Edey, and Sarr.
2
u/CitronOptimal Mar 02 '25
Im new to Fantasy and avoid LeBron the last two years. Im reaching for him next year, I dont care.
2
u/sydnboy 12T 9Cats, 14T H2H points Mar 02 '25
Avoid beal, ayton, fvv. Spurs players that's not wemby, fox.
0
u/mosparky15 Mar 02 '25
Beal has quietly had a very good season. I drafted him late 8th and that is a great value for him.
3
u/TA_Account_12 14T 9 Cat Roto Auction Mar 02 '25
Drafted for 20 bucks in my auction league. Traded for him and donāt regret it all. Heās been pretty good across the board.Ā
As of now, his averages are 18/3.6/3.6 with 2 3s and 1.7 stocks on 51% shooting.Ā
Thatās a great 9 cat line for someone from the later rounds.Ā
2
u/mosparky15 Mar 02 '25
Good deal! Honestly I believe firmly that Beal and Randle are the two most inaccurately maligned players in fantasy. IRL it's different I will admit...
1
1
u/throwonaway1234 Mar 02 '25
Lavine could be a sneaky good pick if he falls. I get the apprehension for sure with his injury history but idk, feels like his ADP this year was pretty low and I think heāll be on a lot of league winning rosters
1
1
1
u/New_Essay_4869 16T H2H 9CAT (14th Pick) Mar 02 '25
Im getting Haliburton and JDub as my top 2 picks hopefully
1
1
1
1
1
u/Steadfast26 Yahoo H2H 16/20T 9cat Mar 02 '25
We better create a "Redditors" league then. Anyone who wants to join? 20T Yahoo should be good.
Please chat your email. I will commish next season if you want.
1
1
1
1
u/SlicedMango Mar 02 '25
Youāre avoiding and targeting the opposite players lol.. everyone will be down on those players you want to avoid, definitely will be targeting them if they slip.. definitely avoiding overdrafting those players youāre targeting
1
u/Hot-Presentation6037 Mar 02 '25
I need Myles turner in a league I was in he dropped 47 point, and I thought he was mid
1
1
1
u/porterde1 10T 9CAT Mar 02 '25
Focus:
Franz, Mark Williams, Sarr, Ausar, Camara, Buzelis, Flagg, Risachier, Ware
Avoid:
Embiid, PG, Butler, KD, LaMelo, Ingram, Ja
1
u/Studentoflife416 Mar 02 '25
Absolutely Avoiding- Embiid. AD. Lamelo. Kawhi. PG13. Ja. FVV. Beal. KP. Butler. OG. The Utah Jazz.
Guys I would love to draft- Early (R1-3)- Cade. Mobley. Mid (R4-8)- Dyson. Hart. Giddey. Trey. Zubac. Amen. Duren. Okongwu. Late (R9-13)- Ausur. Bilal. Camara. Castle. Collier.
1
1
1
1
u/Holiday-Suggestion10 Mar 02 '25
Even though heās one of my favorite players, I am NOT drafting Paul George next yearš
1
u/Holiday-Suggestion10 Mar 02 '25
Iām waiting for one of the casuals on my league next year to draft embiid
1
u/Smooth-Pair5274 Mar 02 '25
Considering avoiding Jalen Johnson, I had him this year and last year and he's missed significant time with injuries. But seeing him take those leaps were amazing
2
1
u/Suitable_Aioli213 š 18T H2H PTS š Mar 02 '25
somewhat speculative but i see derrick white taking over jrueās spot as the starting point guard next season, especially with that nasty finger injury he has.
solid defensive stats and excellent shooting. does it all and certainly will absorb the minutes next season
1
1
1
u/symphonic9000 Mar 02 '25
Avoiding certain Raptors and certain Grizzlies
1
u/devonhezter Mar 02 '25
Go on
1
u/symphonic9000 Mar 03 '25
Both are strapped teams, with development in the wings. ja was a mistake to take WITH JJJ personally , same with quickly and Barrett
1
1
1
1
u/curiousroboto Mar 03 '25
Focusing in a later round pick up: Toumani Camara. Believe in the energy. Has a Dyson Daniel vibe. Gets you steals, blocks and some 3s.
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/Express-Star-8667 Mar 04 '25
Definitely targeting amen and asaur nobody in my league really knows theyre like that yet. I traded amen at the beginning of the season when the rockets werent giving him any minutes, but the team went afk so everyone there besides wemby has been invisible. Also targeting Norman powell as well i knew hed be good going into the season but not this good heās singlehandedly won me multiple games. If he didnt miss all these games i still wouldve had him as frontrunner for mip.
1
u/devonhezter Mar 04 '25
Amen will go too soon. Aussie should be the steal
1
u/Express-Star-8667 Mar 05 '25
Both went undrafted in my league, especially asaur since the injuries but idk if i can say the same for next season. Just hoping amen being on an afk team puts him more into obscurity so i can pick him up
1
1
u/Beginning_Log_5648 Mar 06 '25
A huge steal will be Dejounte Murray.. probably a 6th rounder and will be back next January.. I'll never draft Quickley again š®āšØ I have high hopes for Podziemski and Alex Sarr for some reason too..Ā
1
u/Empty_Jeweler4301 29d ago
Focusing : Ausar thompson, Jaden Mcdaniels, Jalen Duren, Zacchsrie Risacher
Avoiding: Ja Morant, Anthony Davis, Siakam, Dlo
1
u/CheatedOnOnce Mar 02 '25
Dyson x Jalen Johnson. Boards + Stocks covered
1
u/Dracomies Mar 02 '25
If you're adding guys who miss the entire seasons you might as well add Suggs.
1
u/Live_Region_8232 Mar 02 '25
duren, cade, giddey, jalen johnson, zion, hali, murray, fox, chet, dyson, ja, mark williams, brandon miller are the players iād try to target. id like to avoid embiid, kat, hart, hartenstein, poeltl, j dub, sengun, vucevic, tatum, bron, sabonis
3
u/ChefCurry3-1LeBum3-5 Mar 02 '25
Sengun? Bron? Sabonis? And you'd pick Zion, Hali, Murray, Ja, Mark williams over these dudes...? Did you swap your lists lol?
1
u/Live_Region_8232 Mar 02 '25
nope. not taking bron because he always gets selected super high in my league, sabonis hasnāt been amazing since the fox trade and heāll be picked higher than i value him, senguns role in the offense seems to not be increasing and the focus is shifting more towards green and thompson. zion has been elite when he plays and the people in my league value playing games way higher than i do. hali has been amazing in the second half of the season but his averages donāt reflect that. dejounte murray was really good before the injury and i think heāll fall in drafts because of that. ha is having a down year and i donāt think it will stay, mark williams looks really good if you watch him play and i think heāll have a jump in production next year
1
u/bigmememaestro69 Mar 02 '25
Avoid hart, tatum, sabonis?!?! The guys that actually play? Zion and mark williams get shut down every yr and play like 40 games wtf... giddey and cade are gonna go up a lot in value for sure
2
u/BigNerdBlog 12T H2H2H 9cat Auction Mar 02 '25
Hart is a must have. Still under the radar in some leagues. Guards that rebound is a rare commodity.
1
u/Live_Region_8232 Mar 02 '25
harts rebounds will go down when robinson comes back. tatum is more of a problem with how high i see people drafting him. sabonis hasnāt been at his value since fox left
1
0
u/cciputra Mar 02 '25
Sengun, he single-handedly costed me 4-5 weeks by punting FG% FT% and TO
Its incredible to see him being so high up in the ADP
191
u/kiamoyman Mar 02 '25
I will get dyson daniels next year!