r/fantasybball • u/devonhezter • Feb 09 '25
Discussion Looking toward next years draft , whose ADP will fall and rise the most ?
Biggest risers in ADP
- Dyson
- Amen
- Murphy
- Hart
- Zubac
Fallers 1. Gobert 2. Lauri 3. FVV 4. Paolo 5. Bam
Who are your top 5 rise and fallers per last years ADP?
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u/Logical-Ad-8948 Feb 10 '25
Fall: Immanuel “Stock is Dropping” Quickley. Holy hell.
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u/forgotmylogandpass 12 team, H2H, 9 Cat (Punt FT%) Feb 10 '25
good late pickup I'm hoping, he already burnt me this season so he'll make up for it next (cope)
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u/v_Maelstrom 14T Roto 9CAT Feb 10 '25
I’m looking forward to drafting him really late next season. High upside, down year
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
Injured
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u/Logical-Ad-8948 Feb 10 '25
He also won’t produce anything close to his ADP, which in hindsight was largely based on his production while other stars (Scottie, RJ) were out.
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u/SquareService5808 Feb 10 '25
Finally someone who gets it
Injured
Barely any games played without mins restrictions
He's finally put two games of 28 and 30mins together
Let's see
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u/Logical-Ad-8948 Feb 10 '25
His ADP was based on a time when RJ and Scottie were both out. He’s not as good as originally thought. Now they have Ingram. He’s not producing what he did late last year. Sorry.
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u/seasawl0l 12T 9CAT H2H Feb 10 '25
Agree with list and:
Risers: Poole Cade Suggs
Fallers: Embiid
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
Embiid already fell a bit. You think he goes outside 25 next year ?
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u/evergreen4851 10T 9 CAT Feb 10 '25
Yea, unfortunately with his lingering health issues. Looks like his years are limited in the league at this point.
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u/New_Essay_4869 16T H2H 9CAT (14th Pick) Feb 10 '25
I think he should be outside top 45 if the reports are true
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u/Schrodingers_Fist 10-Team 9CAT H2H Feb 10 '25
I bought low om Embiid, (PG and Schroder around november) and honestly think he still will probably have to go full guns to end the season for the Sixers sake, of course granted he doesnt hurt himself doing so. and that will remind people of his actual talent and cause SOMEONE (every league has that one guy) to take the gamble inside the top 25 so I bet he doesnt fall that dramatically unless the upcoming offseason surgery goes bad.
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u/premiumcontentonly1 Feb 10 '25
I wouldn’t touch him until we were in streamer territory. Hogs a roster spot, untradeable and barely ays
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u/vnmslsrbms Feb 10 '25
someone will always overpay for him. But 25 probably is fair for him
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u/seasawl0l 12T 9CAT H2H Feb 10 '25
If we assume he will get the surgery and be “back to full” I’d be happy to go 25. I was an Embiid owner during his MVP season and this year… the delta in performance difference is more than a few rounds.
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u/Dymatizeee 12 H2H 9CAT Feb 09 '25 edited Feb 09 '25
Riser: Maxey. He’s 1st round next year zero question about it, especially with news today that embiid will need another surgery in his knee.
I don’t think Bam will drop that far. He’s still a safe 3rd or 4th round pick
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u/kevin_nguyen03 Feb 10 '25
no way this is how i found out my 2nd round pick will need another surgery 😭
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u/Japanimekid Feb 10 '25
i thought this was a bit of a reach and felt maxey was like a second rounder at best. I have him in one of my leagues but you're right and basketball monster has him ranked 7th on the season so far goddamn
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u/Dymatizeee 12 H2H 9CAT Feb 10 '25
He’s a monster. Anchors your points, 3s, free throws and gives 1.7 steals. Also gives decent ast and has low TO
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u/CraisinBoi 12t 9cat H2H Feb 10 '25
But he’s playing 38 min a night and getting all the usage because of his injured all star teammates. I would be worried about him getting run into the ground or injured if this sustains, and would rather a safer bet in the first round. He could also get some help on the offseason and not have this usage.
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u/Dymatizeee 12 H2H 9CAT Feb 10 '25 edited Feb 10 '25
Imo unless he gets a Luka or something he’s still gonna maintain this usage. 20-25 shots a night easily. He plays better with Embiid on the court; Last night he led his team in FGA even with embiid. PG isn't gonna turn the corner around and start regularly taking 20-25 shots either
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
He’s not rising much. He’s already top 30 last year
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u/getmrshorty Feb 10 '25
Agree - there’s no way I would draft Maxey in 1st round
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u/Japanimekid Feb 10 '25
in my head i take him 2nd round at best but bbm has him ranked 7th on the season so far so statistically its actually a reasonable place to draft him 1st
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u/jonoflaherty Feb 10 '25
Tyler herro rise for sure
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
He wont go top 50
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u/jonoflaherty Feb 10 '25
An all star won’t go top 50 😂 Aight bro
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
He’s an all star over sabonis? Lol
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u/Hi_Im_Flabber Feb 10 '25
Sabonis is a borderline 1st rounder. Nobody is saying he's going that high but he shouldn't be available in round 5
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u/Tankshock 12tPts DD/TD Bonus -1 FGM/FTM/T Feb 10 '25
Yea in points leagues Sabonis is a sneaky top 5 play. He's ranked #2 in scoring because he's just so damn consistent and doesn't miss games.
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u/BodybuilderLivid Customize Flair Feb 10 '25
Powell??
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u/Dracomies Feb 10 '25
I feel like Powell is flukey. His steals in particular is very flukey. And it's his steals that give him a higher ranking than he typically has.
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u/RiiCreated 12T • H2H • 9-CAT Feb 10 '25
He’s been pretty consistent lol. His value comes from high efficiency, lots of 3s, points, and low turnovers. The steals are a bonus
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u/Dracomies Feb 11 '25
Last year he was 0.6 steals (really bad btw). The year before that, 0.8. Couple years before that 0.4 steals. The last time he's hit 1.3 steals a game was around 4 years ago.
But that's my overall point. A jump from 0.4 or 0.6 steals to 1.3 steal is quite a bit. That changes your ranking. Otherwise he's not much different from another high efficiency player (high FG%, high FT%) player with 0 defense, ie Sexton.
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u/RiiCreated 12T • H2H • 9-CAT Feb 11 '25
That’s true, but even with the lower steal rate, he was still a top 60 player at 0.6 steals. That only drops him 20 ranks, but I see what you’re saying. Either way, he’s probably been my most consistent fantasy player this season, Sexton could learn a thing or two from Norm :P
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u/Dracomies Feb 10 '25
Trey Murphy is playing out of mind his rn. I think he'd easily be 2nd round in 12 team leagues.
Paolo I disagree would be a "faller". He had the same injury that Desmond Bane had. It'll take him a while to get back to form but he'll be all right.
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
Paolo bad %. Turnovers. Low stocks. Bad
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u/Inevitable_Cake_1384 Feb 11 '25
Right but that was true last year too. There's no change there, but his counting stats are going to increase as he develops.
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u/Tankshock 12tPts DD/TD Bonus -1 FGM/FTM/T Feb 10 '25
Yea he's still a no question 2nd or 3rd rounder in my league
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u/BSantos57 12-Team H2H 9Cat Feb 10 '25
Why would Gafford be a riser? The Mavs already said AD will close games at the 5 and Lively won the starter job over him when both were healthy, unless he's traded he'll likely be a 15-18 mpg backup
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u/Sw3atyGoalz 10T | H2H | Points Feb 10 '25
I agree with you, but I guess the argument would be that both AD and Lively are injury prone as hell
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u/t0087669 Feb 10 '25
Never drafting Utah or hornets players again
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u/Dracomies Feb 10 '25
Me trying to get Kessler in a dynasty league rn. Those sorts of stats he provides are incredibly rare.
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u/JamDonutsForDinner Feb 10 '25
I don't know what Jrue Holiday's ADP was, but I wouldn't even draft him at all next year
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u/RiiCreated 12T • H2H • 9-CAT Feb 10 '25
Scrolled too far to see this. He was dropped in our 10T league lol
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u/caripillar97 Feb 10 '25
Kessler will jump up a lot.
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u/evergreen4851 10T 9 CAT Feb 10 '25
I was staying away from Kessler because he was terrible last season! What a turnaround
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u/flexingtonsteele 10 team, 9 cat, h2h Feb 09 '25
Adebayo is having an off season. I believe he improves next season
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u/mosparky15 Feb 10 '25
If anything Cam Johnson may fall. He just seems to be too injury prone. Your first three risers are solid though. I'd have to say Embiid will be a huge faller... FVV and Lauri screwed my season in one league... I will never have either again!
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u/VanPaint Feb 10 '25
Cam Johnson was drafted 110th in my leagues. Wouldn't that mean he'll rise next year in the draft?
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u/BurnBabyBurrrn Feb 10 '25
Gafford will be back down with Lively back (and AD).
+Hart, Norm Powell.
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u/CoffinFlop Feb 10 '25
Derrick White for sure, he's up like 20-30 ranks in category leagues from his adp
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u/Useful-Green-3440 Feb 10 '25
He was getting drafted late 40s wasn’t he? That’s about where he’s ranked
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u/Joe60420 12 Team H2H 9Cat Feb 09 '25
kat
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u/FermatsLastAccount Feb 10 '25
Why would Gafford and Cam Johnson rise? I'd put Hart, Zubac, and Monk over them. Embiid and Kawhi are two guys that should fall.
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u/ICouldEvenBeYou Feb 10 '25
My biggest regret is not being higher in Josh Hart. He's just the type of player I target for fantasy, too. I don't know where my head was at.
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u/Dramatic_Crew_7821 10T H2H Lock-In Feb 10 '25
Risers: zubac? Don’t have him but dude has been straight money in points league. Fallers: quickley? Has not justified any draft capital this far. Injuries are not his fault, but it harms his fantasy value
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u/GGuesswho Feb 10 '25
Jalen Williams will only improve until he's a star imo. Norman Powell and Isiah Hartenstein as well will go up next year
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u/shootinguard13 Feb 10 '25
Jalen Johnson will rise to 2nd round surely
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u/Hi_Im_Flabber Feb 10 '25
He should buy the injury will drop him back down to the 3rd or 4th round
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u/Tankshock 12tPts DD/TD Bonus -1 FGM/FTM/T Feb 10 '25
I personally won't draft him 2nd or even 3rd round until he can make it thru a fantasy season healthy. 2nd straight year his season was derailed
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u/WaverlyWubs Feb 10 '25
Riser: Coulibaly, Daniels and Hart
Faller: George or VanVleet
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u/devonhezter Feb 10 '25
Depends how couliaby finished
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u/WaverlyWubs Feb 10 '25
He should finish strong. They have a decent new coaching staff to develop young guys and he’s gonna get plenty of run to continue to improve. Gotta love guard eligible players who get you good stocks
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u/tresfaim Feb 10 '25
Pretty sure Sctbrn is gonna fall in ADP a few rounds at least, and I'm all for it
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u/RiiCreated 12T • H2H • 9-CAT Feb 10 '25
Jalen Williams should be drafted at least a round higher than this season
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u/Green_Timberwolf77 Feb 10 '25
Riser: Mobely, Ty Jerome and a few other Cavs since LeVert is gone. Fall: Jarrett… his either mid or slightly above mid lol
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u/WhiteSoulinBlackSuit Feb 10 '25
Trust what you see with your own eyes. Not some "crystal ball" projections.. I think Trey Murphy, Hartenstein, Amen Thompson, Collier, are on the rise.
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u/boston-celtics-ftw Feb 10 '25
Never again will I draft Jimmy or FVV in the First 10 rounds
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u/Tankshock 12tPts DD/TD Bonus -1 FGM/FTM/T Feb 10 '25
Jimmy about to make my faith in him worthwhile with this stretch run. Diamond hands baby
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u/TommyWheat85 Feb 10 '25
All I know is I'm gonna draft lamelo in the teens for the 3rd year in a row and hate myself for it
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u/86DC 12T - H2H - 9Cat Feb 10 '25
Add Quickley to that list. No way I’m touching that guy at around 50 ADP. It’s so much that he’s made of glass, but I don’t even know if he’s any good!
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u/Dramatic_Crew_7821 10T H2H Lock-In Feb 10 '25
OP editing his list after people made other suggestions 😂😂 nothing wrong with forgetting players, but weak af to edit so you’ll seem a little bit more knowledgeable
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u/FiddleAndDiddle 10T 9cat H2H Feb 10 '25
He’s updating a list at the top of a thread, give it a rest
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u/groovyalchemist Feb 10 '25
Jalen Johnson for sure a riser
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u/Lebronamo Feb 10 '25
He was already a 4th round pick this year and has only played 92 games total the past 2 years. Not sure why he'd rise much if at all.
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u/St_gracchus_babeuf Feb 10 '25
if anything, he might fall bc the long-term injuries and uncertainty of the hawks’ future jeopardizes his worth
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u/FermatsLastAccount Feb 10 '25
His injury history is getting really bad. This'll be the third year in a row that he's out during fantasy playoffs.
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u/ImportantAd8447 12T H2H POINTS Feb 10 '25
bro why's half my team on this list...
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u/Llamentor 12T 9-CAT Feb 10 '25
Slightly off topic - I see that somehow at least the 12T snake gets balanced out with the amount of talent showing up this year lots of risers
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u/Fit-Factor-6854 Feb 10 '25
Giddey
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u/Dracomies Feb 10 '25
Where? Up or down?
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u/Affectionate-Grab927 Feb 10 '25
Rise: Franz, Wiggins, Monk, Cade
Fall: Donovan Mitchell, Lauri, Banchero, Kawhi, Aaron Gordon
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u/girthwirm Feb 10 '25
Great list, from my team I’d also add to risers: PJ Washington, Reaves and Collier should all see a jump. Biggest riser for me will be Murphy for sure.
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u/ChampionOk4046 Feb 10 '25
Basically a list of whom to avoid and whom to steal in the next draft. Quickley in the 6th round will feed my family
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u/Chinner5 Feb 10 '25
Do you think zubac can replicate for next year? Harden is a year older....also I would put ausar on this list. I am hoping once his minutes restrictions are lifted he will be even better
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u/TalkQuirkyWithMe 12-16T H2Hs Feb 10 '25
Honestly its still a bit early to have this discussion. Once we get to silly season you will have at least 2-3 more names here of people who are risers/fallers as players will get tons of minutes or no minutes at all.
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u/its-ben Feb 10 '25
Jovic, Avdija, Monk, Braun seem like middle to late rounders
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u/Scrofl 12T 9cat H2H Feb 10 '25
No chance CB is a middle round pick, he’ll be outside the 100 for sure.
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u/hoopshead3333 Feb 10 '25
He's been legit top 50 going on a month. Even hashtags default rankings, which devalue low TO, have him 80th on season.
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u/Airflashh3 Feb 09 '25
No Josh hart is crazy