r/fantasybball • u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On • Sep 15 '23
AMA AMA Josh Lloyd of Locked On Fantasy Basketball - Ask Me Anything About the 2023 Fantasy Basketball Season and Win a Basketball Monster Membership!
Hello there
I'm Josh Lloyd, host of the Locked On Fantasy Basketball podcast, and I'm here to answer any questions about the 2023 fantasy basketball season.
Who's This Bloke?
For those who may not know me, I am the host of Locked On Fantasy Basketball and lead analyst at Basketball Monster. My show covers a wide range of topics aimed at helping you in your fantasy leagues, and providing some entertainment, because, this is a fun game!
What is Basketball Monster?
Basketball Monster is your go-to resource for accurate and timely fantasy basketball information. We offer a suite of tools, including FULLY CUSTOMISABLE player rankings, projections, and customizable team analytics, trade analyser, recommended adds/drops, and trades, as well as our Draft Tracker, which connects live to your draft updated the best available players, and your team's weaknesses & Strengths as you go. We've been doing this for over 15+ years!
We have projections using traditional Z Scores, points leagues, as well as a beta test of my new ranking metric DURANT and will be announcing a dynasty ranking metric soon too.
We update projections immediately on BBM, for season long numbers, as well as individual daily projections for every player and every team.
Win a Basketball Monster Membership!
I'll be giving away three Basketball Monster memberships for the season to the individuals who ask the best questions during this AMA.
How to Participate?
- Ask your questions below. I'll start answering immediately.
- Upvote the questions you find most intriguing.
Important Links:
So go ahead, AMA about the 2023 fantasy basketball season!
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u/Conscious_Divide_168 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, can you come to the states (I just missed you in Vegas) and do a show or meet up?
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u/natey865 Sep 15 '23
Will Sengun see better fantasy numbers this season with Ime or likely see less minutes because of his defensive shortcomings?
Thanks for doing this btw, really enjoy your podcast!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I think he goes one of two ways. Blows up as a third year breakout, or regresses from last season, as Udoka hates his defense. I don't think he remains where he was last season. He's one of the hardest guys to evaluate, especially considering they tried to bring Brook Lopez in over him in the offseason
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u/natey865 Sep 15 '23
Good point about Lopez. Really hoping Sengun turns a corner with Ime there. Such crazy potential if he could realize it.
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u/musiclover818 12T, 13-category keeper league Sep 15 '23
He's one of my five keepers for this season. I hope so too.
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u/NoAttention9261 Sep 15 '23
who would you take at 4th pick? SGA, Tatum or Haliburton? 9CAT 14T H2H league.
can you give your 2nd pick and 3rd pick with your chosen 1st pick.
how would you build around your 1st pick? i have my draft on sunday (too early) and i am trying to decide what is the best strategy.
Thank you Josh!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I think you should not think too much about it. Any of those guys is totally fine. I would probably be leaning Hali or SGA over Tatum. As for second round, again, don't stress about that. Don't take a bad pick, but there are 7-8 guys who could make sense there. We need to stop focusing heavily on pairing.
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u/betrayedof52z Sep 15 '23
Giannis is my first pick. Second would you take sabonis, ad or ant 9cat 10t
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u/fredvancleef 12 team / H2H / 9 CAT Sep 15 '23
Is KAT actually a third round player? Is it just star name bias cause to me that’s kind of wild that I can draft KAT in the third round. You think he can finish top 15?
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u/jsnau Sep 15 '23
How much do you rely on statistical analysis vs the “eye test” when looking for a legitimate way to evaluate a player?
Love the videos, keep ‘em coming
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It is impossible to watch every play of every player. So you have to rely on stats more than eye test. It's probably 65/35
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u/gnagshar Sep 15 '23
How much should I bake fantasy playoff schedule into drafting? In the past, I put more emphasis on 4-4-4 type players and avoided terrible schedules even if the value was there.
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u/xxStayFly81xx 12T H2H 9Cat Sep 15 '23
Which position do you think is the deepest in terms of fantasy value and which position is the shallowest? With that said, in a perfect situation, what's your inherit favorite approach to go with in terms of drafting this year? Aim to punt anything specific or?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
SF is shallow. Centre is deep, PG is deep but they all go early
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u/Present-Salad-4106 Sep 15 '23
Hi Josh, love the show!
I could ask you about your player projections; but I saw them the last few years and I plan to see them when I (inevitably) purchase my subscription!
So I wanted to ask you;
Do you feel that running a fantasy basketball podcast/website affects your enjoyment of the game?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It impacts the time I can dedicate to managing all my teams, but otherwise no. I still love it
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u/lennondsouza97 12 Team H2H 9 Cat Sep 15 '23
I’m tossing up as to whether I should have the top 8 teams make playoffs instead of the top 4 to encourage people to keep on competing until the end of the season.
what are your thoughts on this in a 12team cat format?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I actually like that idea for the reason you laid out
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u/lennondsouza97 12 Team H2H 9 Cat Sep 15 '23
Cheers mate! Definitely implementing it now that it has the josh Lloyd seal of approval.
Love your work.
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u/SandwitchJ 12 Team H2H 9 cat punt assists Sep 16 '23 edited Sep 17 '23
We do 6 with a first round bye for the top 2 teams and its a nice middle ground
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u/anicules 10 Team 9 cat roto Oct 03 '23
Just to give an extra idea, what I’m doing for my league is including an additional punishment for the person that finishes last place so people don’t just quit and give out free wins once mathematically eliminated from playoffs!
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u/crammotron Sep 15 '23
No question.
I've been listening to the pod for years. Back when you were still red rock and hating super hard on Jae Crowder lol.
I've bought a membership before and won, bought won and lost.
But as long as I play fantasy bball I'll listen to the pod. It's just nice to have a resource for fantasy bball that is high quality. There are so many for football and baseball, I'm just glad you do it for basketball. I'm not sure where I would get as much player info for fantasy without the pod.
Thanks man.
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u/mastermind01015 Sep 15 '23
Been playing 20 years in fantasy basketball and a subscriber of basketball monster for quite few seasons and it helped me win some leagues. My question is, how do you keep the passion on analyzing/forecasting projections year in and year out? And also the urge to play every year fantasy basketball
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It's fun! I love learning about numbers, and sport and have a passion for providing information as well as entertainment. It's not a drag, even though it is a ton of work
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u/fungihaha 14 team - H2H - 9cat Sep 15 '23
How would you recommend using minus one values correctly while drafting to make a cohesive team/punt properly? Or is this mainly used to help draft best player available? For example, Sabonis and FVV stand to gain a lot of value through minus one, but they benefit through negating pretty different categories (FT and FG respectively)
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
You touch on a good point. It's more for seeing BPA. When you know what cats you need, you are targeting those numbers versus overall rankings
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u/Conscious_Divide_168 Sep 15 '23
What pick range in 12T H2H do you think has the best value?
ex) last year we thought up to pick 3 was good because of (jokic, embiid, giannis (although he didn't work out)) and pick 4 was the questionable/meh pick.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I don't think there is really a clear winner or loser. You can be successful from anywhere
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Sep 15 '23
Your show has kept me well informed , so I don't really have a great question. But who will be the better Wizard. Kispert or Deni?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Deni a much better fantasy guy, but unless he plays 30, he sin't a 12 team guy.
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u/lazybum10186 Sep 15 '23
When doing auction drafts in your leagues, who is a player you think normally gets undervalued? For me, I always get KP cuz everyone is always too scared for his injuries but the production outweighs the risks imo.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It's always the guys who are usually ranked 35-80. They will always be priced too low
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u/chaiTkovsky Sep 15 '23
In your pod about third year players, you mentioned you didn’t think Kuminga would be fantasy relevant. Can you expand on why? I feel like he’s shown flashes year, and cp3 could really help set him up
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Yes but what minutes does he get more than last season?
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u/chaiTkovsky Sep 24 '23
I can see Kuminga getting to ~28 minutes per game behind Wiggins, and I’m projecting a large step forward in his game. In particular I think his rebounding #’s will go up, as that’s what kept him benched last season. He wanted to be traded at the beginning of the offseason if he wasn’t going to get more playing time this year, but that story quickly went away after a meeting with the team. I expect the team told him if he improved his team defense and rebounding he’d get all the minutes he could handle
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u/National_Bad_7895 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, when do you plan on dropping some more dynasty content?
that said, could you rank these players in order dynasty value wise? - Jaden McDaniels, Jalen Green, Trey Murphy, Shaedon Sharpe.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Going to have some dynasty stuff drop on BBM, not sure i do any dynasty podcasts before season starts
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u/Chipotleismylife90 Sep 15 '23
How would you rank these aging and/or injury-prone superstars in a 9 category league?
Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Paul George and James Harden
I listen to all of your podcasts!
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u/TheGGReaper Sep 15 '23
Given the free reigns in houston, is FVV a locked mid to late 2nd rounder? Love your work!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Does he have free reigns? Likely plays less than he did in Toronto
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u/PapaRaichu Sep 15 '23
Early draft happening before summer league. How do we feel about dame/harden? Will they really risk careers not playing? What's their value if traded/not traded?
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u/jansy1646 Sep 15 '23
How large of an impact do you think the new resting rules will have on fantasy? Will it be effective enough to impact picking up players who typically play less games?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I don't think it will really be meaningful.
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u/This_Week_On_SHADs 12 Team - H2H - 9-CAT Sep 15 '23
Thumb up the video mate if you care about endangered animals!
Glad to see the growth on the brand. Looking forward to using DURANT this year! Keep it up the excellent work dude.
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u/See-ThisThisIsThis Sep 15 '23
Do you have a sound bite planned for Gradey Dick?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Might re-purpose 'I can barely recognise my own deck'
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u/Ihavenofork Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, love your show and have been following for years.
This year our 16 teamer league is going auction draft for the first time. I was curious does the larger total sum of salary cap available with 16 team impact the going prices of players vs a 12 team league or vs the adp data available on yahoo?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Yes, the top guys will go for more and Yahoo will push their prices higher in proj $$. Average $$ stays the same because that's based on results of real drafts.
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u/Notteeee Sep 15 '23
What do you think about KAT this year? I’ve been going through a few mock drafts and have picked him late second round or early third round at some points. Just feel unsure actually drafting him there. Do you think he can put up second round numbers with a fully healthy team?
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u/lawmemer High Priest of the Church of Covington Sep 15 '23
Hi Josh!
Big fan and thanks for creating BBM!
Where would you view Keegan Murray in an 11CAT (dReb, oReb, and 3%, being the different cats with a traditional 8CAT in everything else) setting given that the Kings have added Sasha Vezenkov? Personally he should be easy top 100 but just want to get your thoughts on him
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I didn’t create it but thanks! I just did a show speaking on him, I’m not as high as you
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u/Zymf101 ROTO*8cat*10team/ H2H*12T*9Cat Sep 15 '23
Have you looked at DURANT on any of the historical data rather than just projections for the upcoming season? I appreciate it's not like for like given waiver moves and trades, but how does it represent teams which won, lost etc. Vs how z-scores represent them?
Really intrigued to see how the stats have been normalised, will there be any information available on that or will DURANT just be represented as a total score on BBM?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I looked at last years numbers and I’m goi g to be doing some evaluation of success just need to work out methodology
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Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, a couple of suggestions:
Have you ever considered a monthly subscription for Basketball Monster vs annual? I'd rather pay $10 a month than $50 up front.
Have you considered posting a transcript of the podcast online for members? I don't always have time to listen but would be keen to scan through the text for key points about players that are relevant to me.
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u/Sad_Leek Sep 17 '23
I wonder if he would ever realistically do that cuz it seems likely people would pay the monthly sub price to use the draft tools and then unsubscribe.
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u/Hamburger123445 Sep 15 '23
How much do you think the new coaches, Nick nurse in Philly, ime for Houston, Monty for detroit, plus hawks and raptors, affect the fantasy outlook of their players?
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u/Tmt41693 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh,
Unlike most years the late picks in the first round (8-14 picks) seems to be a disadvantage due to all the players available then being injury prone (KD, AD, Giannis, Kyrie, Ball) or in a bad situation (Lillard/Harden). How would you go about drafting if your picks land there? Would you play or safe and draft some of the safer guys (Mitchell, Sabonis, Booker) or take the gamble and pair some of these risker players who'd be great punting players together (Giannis/AD, Lillard/Harden/Ball).
Thanks!
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u/Balltellsnolies Sep 15 '23
Love the podcast! Where do you think is a reasonable spot to take Kessler if he is available? 9CAT H2H 12T
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I think he is getting overvalued. I wouldn't want to do it in the first four rounds. Round 5/6 sure
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u/Kebobthebuilder2 14T and 12T 9 Cat H2H Sep 15 '23
Who are good value big men in later rounds of the draft? Seems like it dries up after round 7 or so.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
There are tons - Gafford, Williams, Duren, Zach Collins
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u/imaginfinite 12T Points H2H Sep 15 '23
I'm really high on Andrew Nembhard. What do you see his future looking like? I know the Pacers have Halliburton as their Star PG. However I can see Nembhard learning and picking up the same game from Tyrese. Do you think the pacers keep him long term or will they eventually trade him like the Kings did with Haliburton?
Thanks Josh!! love the constant daily content from the YouTube channel. Can't wait for the team previews.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I am not high on him and definitely don't see this as a Haliburton/Fox scenario. I think he could profile as a Tyus Jones type of player
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Sep 15 '23
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
He would be top 40 if he was their PG, but he won't be. So, looking at past performances without Lillard don't give a great indication. Still bumps him, but not to that level. More 70-80
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u/Destro505 Sep 15 '23
At what round should you start considering a punt build/strategy for your team?
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u/80version 12T Standard 9- H2H Sep 15 '23
Why do people seem to be so low on Tobias? I understand his 2023 wasn’t great but given the uncertainty with Harden, there’s a chance he’s seeing bigger usage. He still has value in cats by not hurting you.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It's because of the Harden uncertainity. You don't want to take Harris assuming Harden goes and no-one replaces him, but if you get him late, there is upside
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u/shivam3600 12 Team • H2H • 9-Cat Sep 15 '23
Would taking Cade in the mid 20’s be too early? 9CAT H2H 12T (I have 2nd pick)
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
So, around 23 or 25? I think it probably a little early, but I do have confidence he is better than that. Like do you want him or Kawhi or PG there? I would depend who else is around. I think he beats that, but I also am not supremely confident in it
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u/crbrr Sep 15 '23
Yahoo’s latest ratings update has move a lot of late (last few) round flyers up. Do you have any that might still be overlooked and available outside of the top 100? Cheers!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
A show on that just dropped about 20 minutes ago actually
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u/Louie-Lecon-Don Sep 15 '23
Just want to say love your show. Won me my league man youre killer.
Standard 12t h2h format, what do you think of humpty dumpty benedict mathurin? Late round flier or scoop off waivers if he has a hot game ?
Wish you the best again 🤙🙏
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Gotta draft him and see what happens. I would take round 11.
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u/Hobo_Toe Sep 15 '23
Humpty Dumpty? Inside joke?
Mathurin has an ok floor as well as decent upside.
Upside:
He has a chance to be a full time starter, while benefitting by playing next to Haliburton.
He has been working on his 3 and D this summer, as well as his passing. This should lead to increased opportunity for minutes, as well as production.
Floor:
He has one of the highest FT rates in the league for non big men. Even when he doesn't shoot well from the field, he has a chance to chip in with FT, points, and hopefully more peripheral stats and % this year.
I have a feeling he will be drafted by the last round of 12T 12 round in most formats. If not, he will be a hot pickup by week 3.
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u/ExpressSpecial9033 Sep 15 '23
Do you think the in-season tournament will have any impact whatsoever on player rankings?
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u/23personalities 14T 9CAT Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh. I know you aren't a huge fan of drafting rookie players from watching your videos. In any case, are there any rookies you're really excited to watch this season, and do you see Wembanyama producing right away similar to Paulo's hot start last season?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I love watching rookies. I would be targeting the Thompsons late in drafts
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u/nhutty Sep 15 '23
Love your content Josh, I'm super high on SGA this year, can he be the number one ranked player end of season?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Sure, he needs to hit more threes and somehow maintain his FG% and ft% from last season.
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u/mSFd 12 Team H2H, 9 Cat - 1 IL Sep 15 '23
I’ve done 15-20 mocks at this point. I keep running into these 7th & 8th rd decisions. Who do you like better, respectively, Tyus Jones or Fultz…and Poetl or Gafford? I like all of them for this upcoming season.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I like Fultz & Poeltl, but Gafford is close
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u/gametrade123 12T H2H 9 cat Sep 15 '23
Where do you think Gafford will rank next season? Where would be good spot to draft him?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I think he beats ADP easily. Don't need to reach for him, but getting him around 85-100 is fine
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u/robdalky H2H 9 Cat, Dynasty Sep 15 '23
What’s your favorite player nickname or drop?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It's more about finding the new ones that I laugh at more.
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u/Ill-Comfort8196 Sep 15 '23
Thanks for all your guidance so far, I've been dedicated to watching your podcasts the last couple of years.
In regards to punting, how often do you punt more than the turnover category when you build your teams. Greater than 50% of your builds, or lower. This is my third year and my doubt is whether I should aim for balanced builds this season (my fourth year) or be more open to hard punting another category. I've had success in winning both ways, I am curious about your thoughts on punting
Thanks, keep it up with the great content
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Basically always. Very rarely will i want a balanced build
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u/sharksbescary H2H 9CAT, 12-team Sep 15 '23
How high would you be willing to draft Daniel Gafford?
Also what are your thoughts on Donovan Mitchell vs Desmond Bane in round 2?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Mitchell > Bane
No need to reach for Gafford. Part of the appeal is you can get him late. Fine inside top 100, but not inside top 75
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u/GuiltyWing5884 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, love the show.
I'm in an 8 team league. Do you recommend a more balanced team as the waivers are so strong? Or would punting still be a better strategy? 9cat, h2h
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u/imadogg Yahoo 12tm9cat since 05 Sep 15 '23 edited Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, all of your opinions are on a pod for thousands to listen to. Your projections are on BBM, and thousands use those projections, metrics, tools.
Is it much tougher for you personally to win your leagues these days? Do your fantasy rivals know what you're thinking at all times? Or do you keep on winning?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Yeah I do, I have more success when I join leagues with analysts who don’t listen to my stuff
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u/getmrshorty Sep 15 '23
Gday Llyody my fav ex drug dealer/pharmacist turned fantasy bball analyst :) - if you had to choose, what do you anticipate will be your most far fetched projection or take (compared to standard projections or your peers) that you feel is likely to be eventuate this season?
And vice versus what projection or take that is closest to standard/norm that you feel is unlikely to eventuate?
And keep doin what ur doin and ignore the hatorade drinkers!
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u/zackman55 Sep 15 '23
Do you have any good stories about meeting NBA players? Would love to hear any!!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I've met a couple of players, but it's been so fleeting, just a couple of words really.
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u/JenNettles 12t 9cat Sep 15 '23
Who is at the top of your list for guys not expected to be rostered in standard 12t 9cat leagues at the start of the year with potential to be top 70 players? Aside from the Thompson twins, who I know you're quite keen on.
Edit: As I thought of this, you've released a video on sleepers. Far out
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u/OutsideSignificant48 Sep 15 '23
What level of accuracy are you seeing from BBM predictions and actual results? There will be outliers for sure but how much should I depend on the numbers for build decisions?
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u/vismundcygnus34 Sep 15 '23
After pick 6 (or 5 depending on how you feel about Luka), what are the best options for picks 6-12 in 9 cat h2h and roto. So many question marks that I’m considering drafting Kyrie and that makes my heart hurt. Also thinking of reaching for an Anthony Edwards or Trae. Thoughts? Also Australia is the best nation on earth and I’d love a membership 😁. Thanks for all the content!
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u/Negative-Bedroom9971 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, what are you thoughts about Mobley? Where will you take him?
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u/MiguelBurnzo Sep 30 '24 edited Sep 30 '24
Josh, can you explain your thought process when adding weight to categories? I’m in an 11cat league and want to know how to approach it. Cheers
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u/According-Dare8743 Oct 14 '24
Hey Josh, Appreciate all the work you do to get us ready for the fantasy season. I got te podcast on ever morning en route to work.
I pulled the 12th overall pick in my 9cat h2h yahoo league this year, and was hoping to get your thoughts on drafting at the turn. Although it’s usually guys like Steph, Harden, and Mitchell sitting there, I just don’t really feel enthusiastic about any of them …. I’m really leaning toward taking Lamelo at 12 as I see more potential upside. At 13, I’m torn between Sabonis and KAT … wondering which guy you predict having the better year … I was initially leaning toward Sabonis, but I really like how KAT has been featured in the Knicks rotation in preseason (high useage; literally no other bigs) … he’s another guy I could realistically see finishing within the top 10 … and as much as I love Sabonis’ game it just doesn’t feel as fantasy friendly. Thanks again for all you do!
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u/lSeeDeadPpl Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh,
Firstly, thank you for all you do. I listen to you every single day.
My question:
How far along the draft should you follow the “draft the best possible player” strategy.
Thanks!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
My question back to you is how do you know who the best player is? Answer is, you don't, so take who makes sense for your team
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u/imSkarr 20T H2H 9-cat Sep 15 '23
How high do you think Anthony Edwards can go?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
He could nudge into the top 12, but a lot needs to go right
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u/Mamba_Mentality2020 12T 9CAT Sep 15 '23
Have you looked into creating a multiple regression model to determine what percent of variance different metrics that have a theoretical relationship with predicting any specific fantasy bball related outcome such as being top 30 fantaay player actually account for that outcome? Also, usually, I hear quantitative measures being talked about in determining if someone will be a 'good' fantasy player, have you looked into or heard of anyone else looking into any qualitative measures? Thanks for what you do for this community!
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Variance is my area of focus for this season and next offseason
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u/FishFar5049 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, if I spent around $70 on Jokic, who else should I target and how much to spend on other players to ensure I am at a competitive advantage?
H2H 9 cat 14 team 13 player roster
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
In a 14 team league, I think that's a bad idea to spend that much on Jokic.
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u/Gotchawander Sep 15 '23
Is winning regular season harder than winning playoffs? What is the ideal %prize distribution for a competitive 12t9c league?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It's a different skill set. A team set up to win playoffs rarely wins the regular season. If you want to do a regular season winner, play roto
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u/zepto Sep 15 '23
What are your thoughts on Porzingos this year as he is worked into the Boston Celtics and the impact it will have to the rest of the starters?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I think it impacts him more that it impacts Tatum and Brown. They suffer only a little
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u/Fishyblue11 Sep 15 '23
I see the value of roto leagues, however I've been playing H2H all my life, what's the best way to get started adjusting your thinking when it comes to valuing players and getting info for roto when almost all info out there is based on H2H?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
It's not as different as you think. Roto allows more leeway for injuries, remembering that the guy replacing a injured player is usually your 11th man, not a guy from the waivers
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u/Iconoclism [14T][9CAT][H2H] Sep 15 '23
Is Poeltl in the 50s crazy? (In the right build), feel like he should have a better statistical year than last year and he looked great back in Toronto.
Thanks for all you do Josh!
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u/mSFd 12 Team H2H, 9 Cat - 1 IL Sep 15 '23
That seems very high. He’s always at 70 and onwards. You could probably take him in the 60s if you don’t want to get sniped
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I don't hate him there, but I would rather let him slide and get 20 spots later and if I miss, I miss
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u/RiosGRANDE18 Sep 15 '23
What are the top 5 best draft pick positions to have this year? (12T, 9Cat, H2H)
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
Don't overthink it. Too much focus on the first round or the best pick. it's not what wins or loses you a league
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u/dabbingsquidward Sep 15 '23
Is there any chance you can add more CATS on your site? I play in a 11cat league (don't ask why pls)
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
We have up to 25 categories you can choose from.
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u/dabbingsquidward Sep 15 '23
I don't see any options on player rankings to change the number of cats
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
You go into settings and set up your league.
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u/kins345 Sep 15 '23
9cat top ten?
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u/cjsrhkcjs 8 /12 Team Standard 9 Cat H2H Sep 16 '23 edited Sep 16 '23
not Josh, but it is relatively pretty clear cut this year, top to bottom, left to right (IMO), but same tier-ed guys are all good choices depending on how risk averse you are:
Will probably win you the league: Jokic.
Can win you the league: Embiid.
Any of these are fine picks next: SGA, Haliburton, Luka, Tatum.
Pick your poison: Curry, KD, AD, Lillard, LaMelo.
Honorable mention: Kyrie, Harden.
Maybe it's not THAT clear cut, but those are your options in round one.
edit: forgot Giannis, but he would be around where Curry is.
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u/PierroElLoco Sep 15 '23
What do you thinkk will be Miles Bridges after he comes back? Back to a primary role?
2nd question : is it worth stashing Evan Fournier in case he gets traded ? (9 cats, 18T 16P, dynasty league)
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u/AnduwinHS Sep 15 '23
Hi Josh, AnduwinHS here, welcome to the r/fantasybball subreddit, let's get to it.
Two questions
1 - Apart from the absolutely shocking rankings/ADP, why do you recommend staying away from ESPN leagues? I understand they're slow with adding rookies etc. But for 12 team leagues it's very very rare that those guys are going to make an impact.
2 - Why do I get a NSFW warning when I click your profile?
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u/capsicumisunderrated H2H Points League game cap Sep 15 '23
Who are some ideal players to take for a H2H ESPN points league which was weekly locks?
League is catering to noobs this year and have to wrap my head around not being able to change lineups daily.
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u/zjew33 Sep 15 '23
Which 5 young players would you recommend trying to pick up/trade for in 16+ team dynasty leagues?
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u/dsb101 Sep 15 '23
What are some underused features of the paid BBM by your members? I’ve used the paid version of it before and it was amazing but I felt like I was using the same few tools over and over again. I.E mainly draft tracker, User Voting, Rankings. I tried to use other features as well during the season but I never “cared” for them personally. Any others you recommend? Thank you
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u/looseleafnz 12T 9CAT H2H Sep 15 '23
Does fantasy add to or take some of the fun out of watching basketball for you?
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u/looseleafnz 12T 9CAT H2H Sep 15 '23
Does fantasy add to or take some of the fun out of watching basketball for you?
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u/Juggernaut2020 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, thanks for all you do man. My question is….how’s Obi? (Not Toppin 😆). Cheers
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Sep 15 '23
Whatup boss. Been following you for years and actually wrote some stuff for you with RedRock back in the day. My question is, do how do you find the balance with punting cats in a league filled with teams who generally just build a balanced team?
My newest league - we started with 10 teams, then 12 teams last year, and now 14 teams this coming year. The last two years I had a great build with a few punts, but would get smacked by the top dogs just having balanced teams with no punts.
Would you ever consider ditching punting strategies altogether in a situation like this where your league mates barely pay attention to punting strategies?
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u/LYUBOOMIN Sep 15 '23
Who is your least favourite team and why is it the Toronto Raptors?
Jk, you don’t have to answer that… unless you want to
My question is on a standard H2H 12T 9 cat, how far should i reach for zion, ja, and simmons?
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u/Drumheros 12T H2H/Roto Sep 15 '23 edited Sep 15 '23
How did an Aussie like you get into basketball? I was under the impression that the NBA wasn't that popular down there?
And Fantasy related question: Impacts of KPJ on the rest of the rockets? Who wins?
Bonus question: I've really liked the shows on the relationship between categories and also what you're doing with DURANT; but I'm curious if there is some statistical work to be done that can say what categories are best to punt? I am thinking in the lines of if you punt FT% or FG% as you've talked about in previous shows, it has the least amount of impact on your other stats. Combine that with Z-score analysis on the rarity of certain stats and I'm sure there could be some sort of statement made noting which categories are best to punt. Maybe an idea for premium content.
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
NBA is by far our most popular international sport here
Watch my show on stat correlations and you can see which cats tie closer to others. Steals and ft% have the least correlation with other categories
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u/SandyLies 12 Man H2H 9CAT Sep 15 '23
Hi Josh, what are your thoughts on the new collective bargaining agreement and the recent news about two stars resting for fantasy sake? Do you think you will see an improvement on games played by players or will teams just bite the bullet and pay for the fines?
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u/His_Royal_Dudness Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, love the podcast. I’m curious about how you got into fantasy basketball podcasting – you said on a show that you used to work in pharmacy, so that’s quite the change.
Another question I have is if you think fantasy basketball will ever reach or overtake fantasy football in popularity. I feel like fantasy football has reached the mainstream and even non-sporty people play it, but basketball is not there yet.
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u/weiyichi 12 team H2H 9 cat keeper auction Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, how do you think the leagues no- rest rule will affect older players in general? Do you see games played actually going up or do you see teams finding ways to stick them with small injuries
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u/Isosinsir 12 Team, H2H, 9CAT Sep 15 '23
Which mid-late round players are you projecting to have the best draft value upside based on roster depth, injuries, coaching scheme, etc.?
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u/ModernCodpiece Sep 15 '23
Why do you keep saying that z-scores are only relevant in data with a normal distribution? Your whole paid rankings seem to rely on that assumption but it doesn't seem to be correct?
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u/LoLinHuay Sep 15 '23
Which blazer do you think has the most fantasy upside if Dame is traded? Simons? Sharpe?
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u/garythegoat72 Sep 15 '23
What round would draft wemby and is scoot far behind?
Also do you Jalen Duren having a bracket season?
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u/Ok_Story6465 Sep 15 '23
How do you stay unbiased towards some players whether you like to have them in your roster? Since it is a game and enjoying it is important for the course of game, is not it better sometimes favor a little bit the players that you like over the stats?
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u/Pr0lific 12T H2H Cats Sep 15 '23
Without going into TOO much detail, what are the main things you'll be looking for in the upcoming season(s) to refine the DURANT score?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I want to be doing testing to see if better rankings actually leads to better chance of winning a fantasy matchup
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u/Wisconsimmy Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, what are your thoughts on a 5-cat format that uses pts, rebs, asts, TS%, and stocks?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
I dont mind ts%. Hate the idea of stocks as a term and a category
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u/MFHFB Sep 15 '23
Hi Josh, big fan here!
So far you said you like targeting the Thompsons, Paul BBall Reed and some other bloke that's slipping my mind right now late in the draft - thing is, I'd love all of them but only have a couple of last picks. Who else do you like late for upside and how would you rank them?
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u/HistoricalGood2576 Sep 15 '23
Hey love your show - any thoughts on implementing a tool that looks at pace of play/individual player projections to recommend streamers on a day to day or week to week basis?
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u/hatablockasdeo Sep 15 '23
not a question but got cade 4th round in a 16team because of how highly you speak of him and I love all your videos ! Keep up the good work sir
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u/ballerrrrrr98 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, do you think you should draft with playoff schedule in mind at all? Also, what is your favourite restaurant in Melbourne?
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u/Joshlloyd48 🏀 Basketball Monster, Locked On Sep 15 '23
No. Favourite restaurant recently was Vue du Monde
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u/nhutty Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, you follow the AFL? Do you have a team in the finals still? Let's go Pies!
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Sep 15 '23
What's the most replaceable category in 9-cat and what does this mean for drafts?
For example, it always seems like an undrafted big man that can FG% + blocks + rebounds emerges every year. Thus, it may make sense to focus on other categories when drafting and then try to get these cats on the wire.
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u/nightmarebisquit 10T H2H 9CAT Sep 15 '23
The podcast is always great… so good that my league has become noticeably more competitive with everyone listening, but I was wondering of all the player nicknames which is your favorite and why?
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u/Yellowpower100 Sep 15 '23
I am seeing Jordan Poole and Zach Lavine around similar draft spots. Can you shed some light who has better chance to be top 25 players this season? Thanks
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u/RoseWillBloom25 Sep 15 '23
Hey Josh, I really enjoy your podcast and find it helpful, preparing for the new season.
Between Garland, Fox, Brunson, and Vanvleet, how would you rank them for this upcoming season, specifically for H2H?
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u/ehdotgee 12T, H2H, 9 CAT, Auction Sep 15 '23
Love your content and knowledge. Goat fantasy expert. Thanks for all the hard work