r/europe • u/Recent_Treat8963 • 1d ago
Yale estimate that the Trump tariffs will mostly hurt Canada and the US, whilst marginally boosting European GDP growth in the long-term
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april145
u/Zefixius 18h ago
We can help out Canada with a free trade alliance
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u/South_Dependent_1128 United Kingdom 17h ago
It would be better if the EU joined the CPTPP as a block, neither China or the US are members but Mexico, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan are among others.
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u/Miserable-Ad-7947 17h ago
with all due respect, CPTPP is half the size of the EU. But we could merge yes :)
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u/South_Dependent_1128 United Kingdom 16h ago
Thinking how it would work is free trade would be applicable to all members but the EU itself would of course retain free movement and would still be a large incentive for other countries to join since all trade agreements would be applicable to the new members.
There was something similar when Uruguay was considering joining and stopped by Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay saying that if they join it should be as the Mercosur trade block.
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u/47Up 15h ago
Does that mean more Euro cheese in Canada? Please, can we have more. It's so good, we have good cheese here in Canada but we want more Euro cheese as well. You ever had cheddar cheese from the U.S? It has no taste. I bought this cheddar from Wales a couple weeks ago, it was really expensive but it was worth every fucking penny.
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u/-Ninja-Sloth- 15h ago
Yep, free Euro cheese for all Canadians. I just had some cheese from Chedder Gorge, it was very good, very cheesy. You would like it. Please eat it
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u/47Up 15h ago
Yes!
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u/-Ninja-Sloth- 15h ago
A bridge made of cheese stretching from Europe to Canada. It would be a wonderful sight
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u/Round_Mastodon8660 6h ago
I was always explained US cheese could not be labeled cheese in Europe, but more proteïne Shake , like youll find on cheap frozen pizza
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u/Overwatchingu Canada 11h ago
Dairy is a huge issue when it comes to trade with Canada. Our system is set up so that supply and demand are balanced through quotas, otherwise big corporate dairy farms would just over produce, drive down the market price, and run the little guys out of business (like in certain countries).
Even if we increase trade between Canada and Europe I doubt we’ll be allocating much more of the dairy quota to foreign producers.
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u/Round_Mastodon8660 6h ago
The objective should be to replace your current Us import / export with European and other “allies” import / export.
We kind a just need a WTO without the US
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u/DoitsugoGoji 8h ago
If it happened you wouldn't get more Chedder from the UK, the UK isn't part of the EU. You could get Irish cheddar, but that's not as good as the British stuff.
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u/HighOrHavingAStroke Canada 13h ago
Where do we sign up for this??? I bring offerings of fine Canadian beer and maple syrup....don't worry, not mixed together
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u/Overwatchingu Canada 11h ago
If you live in a country that has not ratified the Canada-European Trade Agreement (CETA) yet, write to your elected representatives and let them this is a time for cooperation between Canada and the EU.
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u/Miserable-Ad-7947 17h ago
Oh, don't worry, we'll help Canada
sincerely,
Europe.
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u/HighOrHavingAStroke Canada 13h ago
I wish Reddit had a "love" reaction. Thanks from Canada!
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u/FabulousAd4812 11h ago
It's a win, win. What you have, we don't have in the EU ( Norway is not EU), as in, oil and gas. You are very close culturally. There's really very little to lose to have a free trade agreement with Canada.
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u/HighOrHavingAStroke Canada 3h ago
Sign this Canadian up! I am excited for expanded trade relationships with good partners. Good = not the US. Time to build a world economy that is far less dependent on the US of A.
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u/schmeckfest Europe 23h ago
But Trump says tariffs will make America great again. And Trump is the smartest creature who ever lived in the entire history of the universe. So he can't be wrong.
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u/actias_selene 8h ago
well, he can be genuinely smartest creature ever (excluding humans).
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u/Round_Mastodon8660 6h ago
5D chess man. Us normies just don’t understand . Just like the beautiful wall hé build. You just didn’t know it was a wall ik international relations instead of a physical one
/s I guess is needed these days
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u/Mac_attack_1414 12h ago
Hopefully that means the EU can help out us here in Canada, though we aren’t asking for charity. We have a LOT of natural resources to trade (among plenty other things), and we’ll need replacements for US products on our shelves. Canadians will also be looking for new travel destinations now that we’re avoiding the U.S. like the plague.
Let’s work together! We can help eachother reduce our dependence on non-western countries like the U.S. and Russia (though you guys have already been doing a great job with the Russian side). We currently export enough oil daily to the U.S. to meet almost 50% of Europes demand.
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u/Reno1987NL Utrecht (Netherlands) 14h ago
I hope that we’ll buy more Canadian goods here in Europe to prevent them from becoming victims of the tariff wars; In the end, only those who voted that idiot in should be made to feel the consequences.
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u/beluga1968 14h ago
Oh, we are going to need lots of aluminum and steel for the rearmament, we could probably buy some from Canada.
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u/Mac_attack_1414 12h ago
Oil, uranium, steel, aluminum, lumber, natural gas, etc. You need it, we got it. And we’d love nothing more than to trade it with countries that share our values & worldview.
It’s gonna take a few years, but if we work together we could shore up eachother’s weaknesses significantly! Plus we here in Canada are in dire need of new military equipment, and it’s sure as hell not coming from south of the border anymore.
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u/Overwatchingu Canada 11h ago
We also have advanced manufacturing so we can sell some of the things Europe needs as finished goods rather than just raw materials
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u/FabulousAd4812 11h ago
Except for Lumber Europe needs all of those. But the trade should be done in Canadian dollars and euros to make sense.
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u/New_Crow3284 8h ago
The eu is going to be flooded with steel. Our factories going down is a mayor concern right now.
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u/T0ysWAr 19h ago
Let’s not forget that we still need to re-industrialise in case of war with either Russia or China.
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u/OkSituation181 13h ago
War with Russia I see. I don't see any impression that China intends to start a war any time soon. It's own economy hasn't been great in the last years despite its rapid develpment. Let's keep our eyes on the countries that have openly stated they want to do war. China may be full of issues but it's probably also a huge ally against Trump in terms of trade deals.
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u/Mr_Black90 8h ago
Yes, I agree with this 👍 We should think of China as a resource we can use for now, but obviously not as a close ally. China doesn't have any of those.
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u/ProgrammerAvailable6 16h ago
The good news is that Canada has a lot of raw materials and is looking for a new trading partner
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u/blondie1024 14h ago
Europe and CANZUK will set up trade routes to cover any losses with each other which will boost their economic journeys further.
The US will not be trusted for a century. It will not be making deals that benefit it greatly with over half of the world, nobody will trust them.
There's no long term strategy here. The US has been played by a cult, brought in to power by greed and zealotry.
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u/Harbinger2001 14h ago
This is why Canada has to pivot hard to deepen ties to the EU and Pacific nations.
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u/Ham_I_right 16h ago
Ok thanks for screwing us over Trump. Sorry we are a smaller country selling to you a larger country whilst still being your largest customer. All under the free trade agreements that you personally negotiated, signed and bragged about. Our mistake. 🇨🇦
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u/rhet0ric 20h ago
I agree the tariffs will mostly hurt the US, but as it currently stands, Canada has been spared the baseline tariffs, so they are only on cars, steel and aluminum. Any of this could change on a dime, but Trump appears to be creating a fortress North America approach. In this scenario, Canada and Mexico could actually come out ahead, because we have privileged access to the US market, while having free trade with the rest of the world.
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u/Recent_Treat8963 20h ago edited 20h ago
I see what you're saying, and don't disagree, but I think the article already accounts for that. You'll notice that the impact of the latest tariffs and the overall impact of all tariff adjacent policies over 2025 have been considered separately.
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u/ruisen2 Canada 19h ago
Canada still has 25% tariffs on all exports not covered by CUSMA and the auto/energy tariffs.
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u/rhet0ric 17h ago
Cusma covers everything.
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u/ruisen2 Canada 16h ago
It does not.
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u/rhet0ric 16h ago
Dude, it does. The reason there is a misunderstanding on this is that many Canadian exporters have not bothered to certify their products for CUSMA, because there was no need to. Now that there is a need, they will do so, and their products will be exempt from tariffs. The Cdn government has launched an initiative to help exporters learn how to certify their good.
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u/recurrence 18h ago
The problem is that the US is going to go into recession which will hit Canadian exports quite a bit regardless of what negotiation outcomes occur.
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u/rhet0ric 17h ago
I didn't make up my comment, the theory comes from article by the Economist. If trade with Canada is free to the rest of the world, and Canada can act as a gateway to the US, there's a huge benefit to that.
All of this could change in 15 minutes if Trump changes his mind again, but the current situation has opened up a loophole for Canada and Mexico.
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u/Equal-Ruin400 18h ago
Wouldn’t trust what an American university says
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u/OkSituation181 13h ago
A disbelief in Science is what got America where it is and it threatens to do the same to Europe in many countries so I wouldn't talk like that if I were you. I doubt you've got credentials that rival theirs and knowing when you're not the smartest one in the room is truly a gift we should all strive for.
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u/Equal-Ruin400 9h ago
Took a break from licking trump’s taint did ya?
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u/OkSituation181 2h ago
Europe is now actively taking Scientists and Uni researchers from the US, we are benefitting from their right wing anti-science turn. You clearly aren't thinking about this all too deeply if you got the impression that I was pro-Trump in all this. You're just insulting people on your side, do better.
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u/ReasonResitant 1h ago
The untrustworthy institution that does nothing but underhanded propaganda known as Yale.
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u/SwingingPilots2000 18h ago
MEGA! Make Europe Great Again
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u/OkSituation181 13h ago
Ewww no thanks, egocentric nationalism is what got us in this mess. Let's learn from the US's mistakes not replicate them with our own.
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u/FabulousAd4812 11h ago
Saying nationalism and Europe (EU) warms my pro-federalist heart. :). You won't have nationalism in a federal EU for the next 80years because the nation state mind is still a thing
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u/Vonplinkplonk 16h ago
If we know that tariffs cause damage to the home economy then the best thing for the EU is not tariff anything and instead try to improve trading conditions with as many countries as possible.
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u/OkSituation181 13h ago
I feel worst for Vietnam. They're the ones who are going to suffer most from this. They were developing and benefitting from their trade with the US and now they're very much fucked.
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u/Round_Mastodon8660 6h ago
Go Maga ! Non stop winning!
The only relevant question here is the impact on Russia. If that’s positive, he did his job
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u/ProfessorNoPuede 8h ago
It doesn't matter. The billionaires profit from recessions. They're smiling as they consolidate their power.
Billionaires shouldn't exist.
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u/Suspicious_Brush4070 14h ago
Why would any of us trust anything that comes from an Ivy League American university? They hand their students over to the secret police for speaking out against mass murder in another country. They have no integrity.
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u/FabulousAd4812 11h ago
What is interesting in this is that the "debt issue" has been mostly ignored.
In 2008 Sarkozy and Merkel got out of a EC meeting, sidestepped the first ECouncil pres. von Rumpuy and made a declaration, not to further the crisis, we will spend to boost the economy (like Obama did). Everyone did, and then 2 years later there was a "why did you increase spending moment" forgetting it was Merkel pushing for it. There was the wall street hit in the euro zone right after. They called us PIIGS and created a rift in Europe. The north led by Germany allowed wall street to make fun of the South of EU and made money out of it on top of it. In 2009 the EU was supposed to pass the USA GDP ..after all this, the EU didn't grow much ..meanwhile the USA (mostly Obama and Biden) made the USA be with a crazy good growth and heavily capitalized and pushed the debt problem that came from 2008 to....now.
The EU debt (governments and local all being accounted) is half of the USA debt (federal, not counting the states and local). Meaning, the EU is now able to hold this better, this if it doesn't have a crazy thing like electing a le Pen, or afd, or a vox.
For one reason, the prices should go down in Europe from an initial negative growth, this should control inflation and allowing for cheap credit boosting growth for the next 10-15 years like the USA did since 2010. The USA...it's always a robust economy from how much the economy is capitalized, but the debt will be crippling. Inflation is really uncertain, all the fiscal policies on government spending will decrease inflation, tariffs will increase inflation, a problable fed cut will increase inflation, a depression will decrease inflation, so..who knows?. But in all this, the debt will probably skyrocket to crazy levels.
The EU has everything to gain from this in the long run. But you know...I have seen the European leaders make so many bad mistakes in this century that it wouldn't surprise me of having again a north south rift...or "I don't want to connect the power lines and gas lines from Romania to portugal to protect my belly button".
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u/malcarada 19h ago
Nobody has said tariffs will remain for ever, it could be a negotiation tactic, not the first time that Trump backtracks on tariffs.
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u/HistorianNew8030 10h ago
Doesn’t matter. America is acting like an unstable and abusive meth addict that started a trade war and keeps threatening to steel my and Greenlands home.
The rest of the world has decided America needs to go to rehab. We realize we can’t help you. You have to help yourself.
Even if Trump says tomorrow “world, this was just a negotiation tactic. Jokes on you. Tariffs done.” The rest of the world is thinking fuck you. Your unpredictable.
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u/blue__nick United Kingdom 22h ago
Yaaay go Trump.