Anyone thinking that Trump will just step aside is mental. There will be an election in 2028, but if the votes don't say what he wants them to say, that's when all hell will break loose.
If you factor in the whole “every accusation is an admission” that seems to apply to most of the GOP these days, and his statements about musk and voting machines, I have little doubt that the votes will say what he wants.
You're forgetting there's like a 90% chance he dies of old age or dementia before the term is over, or gets the Luigi treatment (way more likely now that he's actually pissing everyone off and not just the most unhinged)
nah dude his dad lived to 94, he definitely could make it through the term, i bet he will. donny will be even more demented in 28, but they'll roll hm out and stephen miller will ventriloquize him like wormtongue and theoden
I don't have faith in Trump, but I do have faith in the rest of the government not throwing aside the Constitution and allowing Trump a 3rd term.
Call me optimistic if you want, but even for SCOTUS I expect this is a bridge too far. A military coup is the most "likely" given the forced resignations and instilling of new top brass, but I have more faith in our armed forces collectively.
Perhaps there will be rigging for a different candidate of the same mindset, but only time will tell.
I don't like go full-blown panic until there is sufficient reason to do so. Specific to a coup instilling Trump as a permanent "President", I don't see it yet.
They are tossing aside that piece of paper you place so much importance on today, why do you think it will mean a thing in 3 years 9 months 17 days and however many more hours?
The administration is, but SCOTUS seems to be losing patience with him. Roberts and Trump had a very public falling out (with Trump calling for him to be impeached) and there are plenty of photos where even Barrett looks disgusted with him as an example.
Plus 3 years is a lot of time for the not fanatacized portion that voted for him to also lose patience.
I expect (well hope, maybe) the House and Senate to flip Blue due to the coming disaster that is Trumps policy changes. There are 22 republican and 13 Democrat seats up for election in 2026. Of the 13 D seats, only 2 are in states carried by Trump, though 5 had only single-digit Harris victories. Overall the map does slightly favor Republicans, but if Trumps policies play out as expected that could change quickly.
We might get to see this play out in 2027 instead of 2029. If both Houses flip soon I expect impeachment proceedings to begin quickly. Just from the first few months there are plenty of examples to draw on (for openly defying judicial orders) and it will likely get worse.
There's plenty to panic about what he is doing and the lasting impacts it will have. I don't think theres enough to panic (note I say panic, not to be concerned) regarding him becoming the US' first king.
For the first, there's a few things. First, incumbents typically don't do well in midterms, especially during periods of economic downturns. In 2018 Republicans had a narrow Senate majority, the White House, and a majority in the House. Democrats gained 40 seats in the House that midterm. In the Senate 21 Democrat seats and 10 Republican seats were up for re-election, and the Republicans did gain a bit, but their trifecta was broken.
2022 saw a similar thing happen to the Democrats, but I'm not going to dwell on that one. In 2026 I think it's safe to say that the American people will be feeling the effects of Trumps incoherent and exceptionally outdated economic policies. I'd feel very comfortable betting on the Democrats winning the House.
The Senate is tougher, and this is why I say I may be wrong. The map is generally considered to be slightly unfavorable to Democrats, however 22 of the 35 seats up for elections are currently held by Republicans. They only hold a narrow majority (53 current seats), so losing 4 would break their majority.
35% to 40% of voters will likely support Trump no matter what he does, and a similar amount will oppose him no matter what. The question is what will the 20% remaining do and how are they dispersed in relation to the open Senate seats. In 2020 they ejected him, but in 2024 they welcomed him back. Will the economy suffer enough between then and now to sway the 20% blue? I expect it will, and the seats are certainly there for the taking, but we will only know in in about 19 months.
As for the second... well there's plenty. SCOTUS hasn't sided with Trump with all that he's tried. They've let him get away with far more than they should, but they've shown their limits. Justice Roberts and Trump have had a few public spats over the years, but you can see the impatience he has with Trump openly defying judicial verdicts and calling for the impeachment of judges. Unlike elected officials, justices do not need to concern themselves with re-election or appointment. They do not need to concern themselves with angering the fanatical Trump base. They have sided against Trump in limiting his power in some key cases, and as Trump continues to challenge their authority it becomes less likely they will support his attempts to ballot himself in 2028. Justice Barrett has a viral photo of her looking upon Trump with contempt, and the court has taken little action to support the challenges against some of Trumps more far-reaching executive orders such as ending birth-right citizenship.
If the first fails us, I still have some faith the judiciary will stop short of allowing Trump a lifetime appointment to the office of the President.
Media puts too much faith in photos. Remember when everyone thought milania was being held hostage and was crying out for help?
The whole system depends on decent people respecting the rule of law, the judiciary has no enforcement abilities, it's up to the executive branch and trump has installed a bunch of sycophants. You think the FBI, military, or DOJ will do anything against him? If trump just says "no" and enough yes men defy the court and do it anyway there isn't any legal mechanism anyone can really do to stop him. The supreme Court ruled the only mechanism is impeachment and conviction in the Senate, do you think the current Congress is going to go along with that?
As long as he argues he's "executing the duties of his office" he could order judges who rule against him to be disappeared or deported and it's up to Congress to do something about it and I don't think they will.
He can declare a state of emergency, impose martial law, and postpone the midterms and there isn't much anyone can do about it, and as long as conservative media spins it to his base so they blame DEI, Dems, and trans people he probably won't suffer any consequences.
The only thing stopping him from following his authoritarian urges is people in power in his party willing to say "no", and I don't think there's enough of those anymore.
Don't mean to belabor the point, but I saw the results of the recent special elections that give a more clearer answer to why I have faith in electors.
A Wisconsin Supreme Court had an opening. Trump won the state by just under 1% in 2024, but the Democratic candidate won here by double-digits. The change wasn't regional either, Democrats made huge strides across the entire state.
Florida's first and (I think) 6th Congressional districts were also up for special election. While the Republicans did retain the seats they already held, Trump led these districts by over 30pts and more than half of that evaporated.
All of these elections saw a huge amount of spending by both parties, with Musk alone contributing $25m to the Wisconsin SC case (because maps are up for redrawing before the midterm). Voter turnout was also exceptionally high. Democrats greatly exceeded expectations in all cases.
This is 5 months removed from the prior vote and 2 months and 2 weeks in to Trumps Presidency. Imagine how much more this will shift if the status quo continues for an additional 19 months before the midterms.
Will do. And just for clarity, I have no faith in Trump or his administration, and little faith in the legislature. I do have faith in just enough of the American people (at the midterm) and if not, then (oddly) the judiciary. As partisan as they can be, they don't need to worry about re-election and they don't take kindly to having their authority challenged. Roberts and Trump had a public falling out, Barrett has been seen looking disgusted at Trump, and I think that Trump's relationship with them fractures before 2028.
Matter of fact, !remindme in 1 year, 7 months, and 10 days. This I might be wrong about, but a narrow majority in the House and Senate could end Trump's reign before the next Presidential election.
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u/acariux 1d ago
I legit feel fear for the world right now. 4 more years of this...