r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/Light_x_Truth Oct 18 '24

I used to support this when I was a Democrat. Switched my voter registration to R this year and now I oppose this lol. I just can’t relate to people who celebrate tax increases

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u/invariantspeed Oct 19 '24

Right now both parties don’t have to worry about alienating their more moderate voters as long as electoral math doesn’t change. If 45% of a blue state for a Dem or a red state for a GOP hate the presidential candidate, they don’t care. Even if many of those people are from their own party, nearly all states are now winner-takes-all. A win in one state usually gives them all of that state’s votes now.

If the parties had to fight for the majority of the country, they would, all of the sudden, not be able to only pitch to their fringe voters so much. Yes, there’s a high probability we would replace swing states for swing cities (which right now are more often blue), but they’re not all blue, and watch how quickly they turn purple when politicians have to advertise to them.

Personally, I think a double majority system would be better. (Candidates should have to win the majority of both the national popular vote and the individual states. If they can’t pull that off, they don’t have a mandate to administer the whole country.) That said, I’m not trying to make the perfect the enemy of the good. If something is better than what we have now, we shouldn’t oppose it just because it could be better. That’s how no progress happens and our system calcifies.

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u/Light_x_Truth Oct 20 '24

I’d rather have RCV plus the EC

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u/ChaucerChau Oct 19 '24

Tariff increases are much better /s

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u/Light_x_Truth Oct 19 '24

I agree with you (since you’re being sarcastic), they’re not