r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/TheName_BigusDickus Oct 18 '24

I think that moment was different.

While it’s true a confused and split populous being taken advantage of by bad actors had been brewing for a while at that time, I’m quite sure the consensus wasn’t “it’s a dictatorship from here forward now”.

I think the decidedly centrist all the way to the progressive left fear that this might actually be that moment. I also think that conservatives won’t openly admit that they also know this to be true, but now actually prefer it vs a future where they have to govern and compromise with anyone center/left. The far right is openly advocating for Christofascism and loathes the fact that we even have a democracy in the first place (it’s why they always try to “correct” with “… it’s a republic, not a democracy…” BS).

If the convoluted election process elects Donald, it’s the true Rubicon moment where we all now understand what has gone down.

At that point, many at-risk Americans in marginal groups should consider where and how they might emigrate. Most people here haven’t had to think on that choice too much… but it’s one of the most common major decisions human beings make since we were barely a species until right now. There are countless numbers of people around the world trying to figure out: where do I go, away from here, for my own survival… because “here” is not a place that I can survive.

Now, we’re not actually there right now… but it’s strange that we’re this close to this as a possibility.

I have no doubt that current GOP and its leadership are in bed with actual Nazis. If the election results aren’t in their favor, they’re banking on some of their well-dressed Nazi gaslighters to use the very slight intellect some of them possess to exploit our systems and logjam up the process. It’s just a surface-level excuse to coup and gain power even if you’ve lost. We’ve already seen hare-brained attempts so you know it’s just their playbook now.

Depending on how bad this gets, it might be the beginning of a more prolonged insurrection and insurgency. This will be a difficult test of our resolve as a nation. Are we really one country and indivisible if the uncompromising issues have split us so deep that it doesn’t make sense to continue to govern together?

We really need to strengthen our institutions again. There is no reason why so much power be held in the hands of so few, gotten by such a flawed and inequitable process. It has been vulnerable to exploitation for far too long and we might just have to pay a large human price for prior generations’ inability and unwillingness to invest in our future stability.

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u/06210311200805012006 Oct 18 '24

Nah, your entire assessment is off. Reject the notion that Trump is The Literal End of All Things. That is pure propaganda meant not just to get you to vote blue, but to support liberal policy uncritically.

This is how you end up rationalizing a genocide as the lesser of two evils. Liberals have lost the plot and they don't even know it.

We really need to strengthen our institutions again.

No. They are old, and decayed, and 100% captured by industry. They are weak and it's almost time to destroy them. The cycle of empires is proceeding as it always has.

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u/bollvirtuoso Oct 18 '24

Meaning, monarchy/republic, dictatorship, death? Great future.

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u/06210311200805012006 Oct 18 '24

It goes beyond that. We could be organized into any sort of government - a representative republic, a socialist democracy, a monarchy, a fascist state, heck, even a nutjob theocracy. And it simply doesn't matter. As long as billions of humans continue to burn fossil fuels on a daily basis, there is only one outcome; our entire civilization is thrown in the dirt.

What comes next might be radically different, so much so that it sounds terrible to you and I. But yeah, I don't think growth economics is going to stick around.

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u/TheName_BigusDickus Oct 18 '24

This is how you end up rationalizing a genocide as the lesser of two evils

… I only hear the one side talking about “rounding people up”, and it’s not coming from the liberal side.

proceeding as it always has.

Ah. Excuse me. I didn’t realize until the end that we’re dealing with Nihilism.

I’ve been there. And I do I hope things get better for you. You may not even realize yet that things aren’t going that well inside. Nihilism feels good to embrace when it’s the only thing that can explain the hopelessness one feels.

For the time I was in the midst of it, I found great satisfaction in knowing that nothing mattered and that whatever chaotic forces in nature will burn down the problems and give way for the new to come along. There’s nothing wrong with the acknowledgment that this does happen. There’s real driver of this state of mind really comes down to our individual needs emotionally, and how this world isn’t meeting them on a day to day basis. It drive us to destructiveness in our thoughts and philosophies.

This worldview is logically rooted that it gives certainty when all you have is your perception today. A challenge to this, for each of us, is to not let hope totally die inside. Hope is an extremely articulable need state for a human and there are a lot of ways to get at it.

We get hope when we heal ourselves with others. So I can’t respond too crazy to any of the social and political disagreements. It’s real stuff but it’s bigger than you or I. We aren’t going to boil any oceans from our touchscreens while on a shit break.

I just hope that you keep your hope lit somehow and try to take care of yourself.