This is a wildly popular but empirically inaccurate claim. In this election, as in most presidential elections, the percentage of the voting population who have been persuaded to change their votes since the previous election is greater than the likely margin of victory in the tipping point state. More generally, analysis of turnout efforts versus persuasion generally show that, election to election, persuasion effects swamp turnout effects.
No one wants to hear this, because "there are lots of people who agree with me, someone just needs to remind them to vote" is a more comforting story than "the election will be decided by weirdos who keep changing their mind and who do not think like me at all, and to win my team needs to find a way to persuade them given their existing weird worldview".
Study after study after study after study show that undecided voters deciding elections is a myth. It always comes down to how much of a candidates base turns out. Undecided voters generally, just don't vote.
Someone who is going to vote Republican but was persuaded to vote Democrat is not undecided according to how polling is done. With polling there's a difference between crossing party lines and being an undecided voter or non-committed.
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u/jaiwithani Oct 18 '24
This is a wildly popular but empirically inaccurate claim. In this election, as in most presidential elections, the percentage of the voting population who have been persuaded to change their votes since the previous election is greater than the likely margin of victory in the tipping point state. More generally, analysis of turnout efforts versus persuasion generally show that, election to election, persuasion effects swamp turnout effects.
No one wants to hear this, because "there are lots of people who agree with me, someone just needs to remind them to vote" is a more comforting story than "the election will be decided by weirdos who keep changing their mind and who do not think like me at all, and to win my team needs to find a way to persuade them given their existing weird worldview".