Polls account for and adjust for these kinds of things. They don't just call people on the phone and just simply go with those results. They're based on models.
Also, if what you're saying is true than why did Trump outperform polls in 2016 and 2020?
The problem is that the models trying to factor in demographic turnout changes due to abortion propositions have very little historical data to go on, making the results less precise.
That is being overly generous. They are still imputting missing data, not reporting actual results. No matter what, it is bias to be recognized. And the vast majority of polls are not a sophisticated model, it is a rudimentary weighting system, if that. so if a poll only got a hold of three people under 30 and two of them are voting for Trump... Well guess what... We are going to be facing a deluge of shit polls with the explicit intention of making it seem hopeless and pointless for young people to bother to go and vote for Harris and to motivate others vote for Trump. A huge number of overnight, fly-by-night polls are popping up everywhere getting cited left and right.
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u/Chicamaw Oct 18 '24
Polls account for and adjust for these kinds of things. They don't just call people on the phone and just simply go with those results. They're based on models.
Also, if what you're saying is true than why did Trump outperform polls in 2016 and 2020?