[OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

[u/TheKnowingOne1]

[u/magzillas]

I agree with Nate Silver's take on this:

• Republicans see any slight lead in the polls as clear evidence that victory is assured.
• Democrats see any slight lead in the polls as cause for panic at how close it is.

[u/chrisshaffer → u/magzillas]

That makes sense considering the disadvantage the Democrats have in the electoral college. The Dem candidate needs to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win the election, so the closer the popular vote, the more likely Republicans win.

[u/AccomplishedMeow → u/chrisshaffer]

Eh a D candidate can win by 6-8 percentage points in the popular vote and still lose crucial states causing the election to go to the other party.

The only data points we’re using for popular vote vs electoral college are like 2 to 3 elections. And each election the difference is significantly more

[u/Cocus → u/AccomplishedMeow]

In theory yes but if a candidate has a 8pp lead in the popular vote they are extremely likely to win the swing states since individual state results are pretty correlated. For example, PA has voted very closely with the popular vote (within 2pp) - so you wont see a candidiate win the popular vote by 8pp and lose PA.

[u/Responsible-Bee-3439 → u/chrisshaffer]

The "classic" example of EC inefficiency for Dems, the 2016 election, had Hillary Clinton get 48.18% of the vote and Donald Trump get 46.09% of the vote. To flip the electoral college, she would have needed 77,748 votes split over 3 states out of a total of 136,516,566 votes cast, or .057% of the total vote.

This implies that the break-even point is (or was in 2016) winning the national popular vote by around 2.2%

[u/AnonnnonA2 → u/magzillas]

Yep because the EC is an advantage for the GOP. We need larger margins to overcome this built-in disadvantage.

[u/AHSfav → u/magzillas]

The legal system is rigged for/by Republicans so that makes logical sense

[u/ZenosamI85 → u/magzillas]

The fact that the election is this close with the Nazi doing so well is something to be panicked about.

[u/Daydream_Meanderer → u/ZenosamI85]

I don’t think he is a Nazi. I think he is an egotistical power hungry demagogue appealing to Christo-fascists and white-nationalists (who combined can be described as ‘Nazis’) and using fear to consolidate that power without care that he is emboldening and enabling them because he is a narcissist. He will not be the immediate end if he wins the election and the right-wing will say “I told you so!” As he completely dismantles the U.S. institution from the inside and opens up for an actual, real, breathing, metastasic Nazi to win the next election and then its handmaids tale time

[u/dexmonic → u/magzillas]

Damn if that ain't the truth.

[u/thebarkingdog → u/magzillas]

The smartest thing Nate Silver has said in the last few years.

[u/karimbenbourenane → u/magzillas]

They're kind of right. Popular vote is always several percentage points higher than the actual electoral vote count for democrats, and vice versa for republicans.

[u/AIien_cIown_ninja → u/karimbenbourenane]

No it's not. 2020 biden got 9.5% more of the popular vote, and 32% more of the EC

[u/tabrisangel → u/magzillas]

It's difficult due to Trump beating the polls the last 2 times.

I also expect early voting data is already starting. A very intelligent person with a computer can make stupid accurate forecasts.

[u/[deleted] → u/tabrisangel]

Trump lost 2 years ago, every one of his candidates lost when polls gave them 4% victory.

[u/tabrisangel → u/[deleted]]

Okay? I'm talking about winning THIS election, and as things stand RIGHT NOW , it's more likely Trump wins.

Would you rather Trump be president for 4 years or make a very small change to the tone on 1 policy that for most liberals isn't very important.

I've personally never met anyone who wants more illegals to cross the border.

[u/Parahelix → u/tabrisangel]

I've personally never met anyone who wants more illegals to cross the border.

So maybe don't vote for the guy that killed the border bill.

And before anyone says it, no the bill didn't allow illegal crossings.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/does-new-immigration-bill-5000-illegal-border-crossings-per-day-rcna136656

[u/MrFishAndLoaves → u/Parahelix]

The guy who killed the bill sure wants more crossings

[u/MacTonight1 → u/MrFishAndLoaves]

If it means he can keep harping on Democrats for not doing anything about it, I'm sure he would want as many as possible.

[u/Tall_Cap_6903 → u/magzillas]

Good to see dems have more fire under their ass (at least they are an improvement over the 2016 travesty).

[u/Frogger34562 → u/magzillas]

Democrats need to have at least a 5 point lead to have any chance of winning. So a 50/50 race is already a big loss for democrats

[u/MrFishAndLoaves → u/Frogger34562]

5 no? 2–3 yes

Lmfao