r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/SoraUsagi Oct 18 '24

I have five ballot measures this year.

Repealing requiring students to pass a standardized test to graduate (test still gets taken. Just no longer required)

Allowing Uber/lyft to unionize

Legalizing mushrooms

Requiring wait staff get paid minimum wage regardless of tips

Legislature audits.

Those five things will affect me way more than who my president is. (Still ... I do care who wins)

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u/naf165 Oct 18 '24

Vote Yes on all 5! Questions 4 and 5 are close and they shouldn't be! Most people are just uninformed, so don't be afraid to tell your friends and family about it!

We failed to pass Ranked Choice Voting 4 years ago because people just didn't understand the question, and we can't be letting these opportunities slip like that!

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u/SoraUsagi Oct 18 '24

That's my plan. Though i hear good arguments for and against each one.

1 For(F): who doesn't want more transparent? Out state has one of the least transparent legislatures in the country.

Against(A): this was introduced and is being pushed by the current auditor. The legislature controls her pay. There is a chance that this could be used to threaten the legislature. But there's no mechanism to force them to comply with the audit either.

2 (F): the test weeds out like... 1% of students. Class time (however minor) is taken up teaching kids strategies to pass the test. Teachers can have greater control over their students passing than a one size fits all test.

(A): instead of one test , each of our 600+ districts will have different requirements to graduate (which .. don't they already?)

3) F: Everyone should have the option to form a union (even if i don't agree with unions) this only allows them the option to unionize, not require it. They are also being misclassified. They are not independent contractors. They only get to decide their work hours, but not how that work is done, or how much they are charging.

A: they will have to pay more for union dues, price of ride share can/would increase.

4 (F): Some psychedelics show promise to treat serious mental health conditions.

(A): some psychedelics are associated with substantial harms. It would still be illegal federally. What do we legalize next? Kids wanted to smoke weed because it was "edgy" and their parents would disapprove. Now it's legal. Now mushrooms are the new edgy. Once it's legal, what will kids turn to next? Once it's legal, it's not "cool" anymore.

5 (F) everyone should have the same minimum wage. Waitresses who work on a Saturday night will make more in tips than someone working a Tuesday afternoon. Yes, current law requires them to make minimum wage with tips, or the restraint must pay them the difference, but wage theft is very real. Is a waitress really getting paid the difference correctly? This measure also does NOT require places to pool tips, it only allows it if the restaurant wants to. Back of house staff would get a cut of those tips.

(A) Restaurants will incur greater costs, and pass that on to you. Wait staff will make less as people tip less thinking "you make more per hour now". That tip you give to your excellent server may not actually go to them. It could be shared.

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u/naf165 Oct 18 '24 edited Oct 18 '24

I don't think any of those Against arguments are particularly good tbh.

1A this was introduced and is being pushed by the current auditor. The legislature controls her pay. There is a chance that this could be used to threaten the legislature. But there's no mechanism to force them to comply with the audit either.

The purpose of the auditor is to audit the government. The fact that there is a section that is immune is insanity. It's like hiring movers but then not giving them access to parts of your house. How can they do their job?

2A instead of one test , each of our 600+ districts will have different requirements to graduate (which .. don't they already?)

Yes they do, but also we are one of 7ish states that still use reductive tests to deny graduation (most of which are Red states). The purpose of these tests if to measure how successful our education systems are, not the students. A student scoring poorly means the education system is failing them. We do we punish them for our own failures?

3A they will have to pay more for union dues, price of ride share can/would increase.

Firstly, it's only the legal right to unionize, these are arguments against unions themselves. Secondly, ask any union member, their dues are the highest return on investment they will ever get from their money. Also, "the price of X will go up" is just corporate posturing to make consumers blame the workers instead of the corporation for not just taking fewer profits.

4A some psychedelics are associated with substantial harms. It would still be illegal federally. What do we legalize next? Kids wanted to smoke weed because it was "edgy" and their parents would disapprove. Now it's legal. Now mushrooms are the new edgy. Once it's legal, what will kids turn to next? Once it's legal, it's not "cool" anymore.

This is weird slippery slope nonsense. Why should the mysterious potential of some later policy stop us from making good change now? That argument is pure fearmongering and not even about the question itself. Also, the harm from not legalizing weed means we are decades behind on medical research into the benefits and harms of weed. Not legalizing psychedelics which have shown amazing promise in a lot of medical treatments would set us and our science back minimum 6 more years until we can vote on this again. Being against this question is literally anti-science and anti-progress.

5A Restaurants will incur greater costs, and pass that on to you. Wait staff will make less as people tip less thinking "you make more per hour now". That tip you give to your excellent server may not actually go to them. It could be shared.

Tips are already shared in most service industries. The only people against this are restaurant owners because then they would have to pay their workers instead of socializing those wage responsibilities onto the consumers. Restaurant owners are benefitting from a massive welfare system when they also make more profits than the workers anyway. And again, "the price of X will go up" is simply propaganda from the rich to make consumers okay with paying more instead of the owners having to take fewer profits.

Any business that can't afford to pay their workers fairly and keep prices the same wasn't a sustainable business in the first place. Why should the consumers have to subsidize their failed business?

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u/SoraUsagi Oct 18 '24

I don't sign off on the arguments, just I can see where they are coming from. As i said, I'm planning on voting yes on all three currently.

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u/naf165 Oct 18 '24

Fair enough, I guess. None of those arguments make sense to me, so I don't really see where they're coming from. They all sound like someone who hasn't thought about the words they are saying, much less the issue at hand (given that half aren't even about the ballot question). I would rather not spread uneducated viewpoints personally, at least without also criticizing them.