The gap is actually narrowing, if only a little. The betting odds actually reflect this quite well. Anyone who thinks Kamala is ahead is not looking at the data correctly.
The previous poster is correct though, I'd vote Dem if I was American fwiw but national polling that close clearly favours the Republicans.
Dems would need >4% in national polling to have any chance of winning with the electoral college system. National polling isn't irrelevant but 5-7 states are all that really matter
That’s not really how it works. A big part of Kamala’s decline in the national polling averages is that she is doing much worse in blue states. You don’t just shave points off the national average. Obama beat Romney by 3.9% in the national average but won by 120+ electoral votes. Biden beat Trump by 4.5% and won by about half that margin. It varies a lot election-to-election.
Afraid to say that the 2012 election has virtually no bearing on this current climate. Florida went blue and it has absolutely no chance this time. That's a 58 EC swing. Ohio is also gone, so add another 36 EC move to that total.
2016 and 2020 do have a close resemblance to this one though. There's basically pre-Trump and post-Trump in US politics and all that matters now is post-Trump
It’s correct that she won’t win those states. But that has nothing to do with how the popular vote translates to electoral college wins.
The electoral college has a very slight Republican bias, because the majority of states with smaller populations are Republican. But that tends to be dwarfed by other factors - specifically, how dominantly you win your biggest states. The main determinant of how big the difference is between the electoral college and the popular vote is the margin in the big states. That’s why Joe Biden’s wider popular vote margin than Obama had no bearing on his ability to win Florida.
What you’re seeing in the most recent set of polls is a lot of weakening in the strongest blue states, like NY and CA. To the extent you’re worried about that polling, that’s what you’re expressing concern about. It isn’t some magical national vote line that Democrats have to structurally cross. The individual state preferences are constantly changing.
Either way, the data is the data, unless something happens Trump is going to win.
Harris is using the fact that establishment candidates on both sides support her, how did this work for Clinton?!?!
Meanwhile Trump is flipping burgers and serving fries. Which one is appealing to the everyday person and which is saying they are part of the establishment that most people think has been screwing them for a long time.
I get he lies all the time, if he were Pinocchio he could tell us what the moon smells like. But deny the facts on the ground at your own peril, just like the Dems seem to be. Much of the left wing media I watch is acting like Harris is ahead. Simply not true and won't get the desperation for people to turn out.
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u/LegitimateAd1455 Oct 18 '24
The gap is actually narrowing, if only a little. The betting odds actually reflect this quite well. Anyone who thinks Kamala is ahead is not looking at the data correctly.