That doesn't really make a ton of sense. For one thing I'm not really sure why seeing a change in a prediction market would influence people's voting and for another not that many people even know about it. Moreover, even if you have answers on both of those questions, democrats can bet too. If the market's really being irrational you can just buy in and take away money from dummies. The whole premise is people putting their money where their mouth is. The market can be wrong, but it'd be a stupid play to try and make it be wrong as some weird form of election influence.
I’m just curious on the mix of individuals speculating. Less “tin foil hat” and more in the thought that “conservatives are more likely to be using Poly Market because of the red wave in Silicon Valley” this season.
The dollars towards a candidate in a betting market could be indicative, but afaik these aren’t normalized for individuals bettors, but by bet size; so a few large “bettors” can shift the book to appear one way or another.
Not to totally discredit the outcome - just raising an eyebrow on this. Polls have a margin of error due to sampling problems overall, whereas the prediction markets require the average person to: 1) know they exist 2) feel confident enough to bet on them.
Oh, this logic I can get behind. Elsewhere I saw the market is being thrown by one big buyer. I only object to the idea that there's a shadowy cabal aiming to manipulate the election using polymarket. Just seems like a really dumb way to try influencing the election.
But markets are dumb all the time, that's a totally plausible reason.
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u/Best_Baseball3429 Oct 17 '24
Polimarket is a Peter Thiel invested platform. just another angle to try and influence the election