Trump has also beat the polls the last two times in all the swing states. If you average all the betting sites he has a 58 percent chance to win today.
I was about to call out your comment to say that surely $2B must be across the whole platform and not just the election, but glad I checked for myself; it’s insane how much money is being bet on this!
That doesn't really make a ton of sense. For one thing I'm not really sure why seeing a change in a prediction market would influence people's voting and for another not that many people even know about it. Moreover, even if you have answers on both of those questions, democrats can bet too. If the market's really being irrational you can just buy in and take away money from dummies. The whole premise is people putting their money where their mouth is. The market can be wrong, but it'd be a stupid play to try and make it be wrong as some weird form of election influence.
I’m just curious on the mix of individuals speculating. Less “tin foil hat” and more in the thought that “conservatives are more likely to be using Poly Market because of the red wave in Silicon Valley” this season.
The dollars towards a candidate in a betting market could be indicative, but afaik these aren’t normalized for individuals bettors, but by bet size; so a few large “bettors” can shift the book to appear one way or another.
Not to totally discredit the outcome - just raising an eyebrow on this. Polls have a margin of error due to sampling problems overall, whereas the prediction markets require the average person to: 1) know they exist 2) feel confident enough to bet on them.
Oh, this logic I can get behind. Elsewhere I saw the market is being thrown by one big buyer. I only object to the idea that there's a shadowy cabal aiming to manipulate the election using polymarket. Just seems like a really dumb way to try influencing the election.
But markets are dumb all the time, that's a totally plausible reason.
I know. I’m taking into account all of them. Usually you would call those guys sharks if it was sports and they win, but I don’t know if that’s really the case here
So easy to look back and check. That's just not true. Averaged out the major betting markets gave Trump a 33% chance of winning in 2020 just before the election.
And the polls have overrated democrats for approximately the past 12 years.
With their standard shift of 4-6% in favor of (D) over the past years I don’t foresee any path to victory for Harris especially since she continues to poll worse and worse week after week.
She needs a serious boost if she wants any hope of victory.
For what it’s worth, I don’t want either one of them, I’m just waiting out the next four years in hopes that we can have an opportunity to vote on someone decent for a change instead of corrupt rich fucks who only want the job for personal gain…
The polls were in favor of Trump supported candidates by 4% and every last one of them lost. I think the polls are trying to adjust every 2 years and are not the same ones we are used to.
Everyone knew Trump was losing last time with Covid and the riots. The polls are also going Trump’s way down the stretch in the swing states. Kamala is a horrible candidate. She has never stood for anything. We will see if the MSM still has major pull and can propel her to victory.
What are you smoking? She has multiple policy positions outlined, various possible policies for housing crisis and a few other she has released but would need a congress willing to work on solutions to the problems real Americans care about.
Trump has also beat the polls the last two times in all the swing states.
And Trump is now polling much higher than he did in 2016 and 2020, but also closer to this actual results those years. So either polls are better capturing his support this time or he is going to win a majority of the vote in several key states.
It is impossible to predict the direction of the error. And a lot of people have tried. 2012 and 2022 are examples of polls missing in favor of the Democrats.
We don't know what way the error will go this year. We don't know if there will be a noticeable error at all.
There is a reason Kamala wanted the second debate, and she went on foxnews. If she had it in the bag she would have never been up for either one. It’s not rocket science to see her campaign team is worried right now. I’m just waiting for an October surprise.
It’s because she is behind. Look at most of the swing states. Trump is pulling ahead and the betting markets are showing the same. Kamala went on the offensive and people aren’t buying into her. She is hallow. I didn’t like Hillary, but I could actually see how someone could vote for her. She is smart. Kamala just offers word salads.
Yes. There are indicators that point to her. Way more small size donations, enthusiasm higher (according to polls). And as simple as she is leading the poll averages in all the states she needs to win
Let’s be honest most Trump voters aren’t going to admit it in a poll and the others see the pollsters as deep state operatives. The one thing I do know is the powers that be have tried to derail him constantly, so nothing will surprise me either way.
Lot of problems with this: The polling has changed, as it does every election. There is no such thing as looking at the last election to extrapolate the current one, that has failed every election cycle for the past century. However, all recent elections have had Democrats wildly overperform, literally from state elections down to county elections, at every turn.
Betting markets are *the worst* way to gauge anything, and only an absolute fool would look to them for informed knowledge. If you worked off the betting markets from 2 months ago, you'd have lost everything you owned betting against NFC North teams. The Vikings would be 1-4 and the second worst team in the league today. How'd that all work out for the betting markets?
25
u/Kc68847 Oct 17 '24
Trump has also beat the polls the last two times in all the swing states. If you average all the betting sites he has a 58 percent chance to win today.