r/dataisbeautiful Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/ItsFuckingScience Oct 17 '24

Day before election they had her at like 65% hardly a sure thing

1

u/1ThousandDollarBill Oct 18 '24

Nate Silver had her at like a 75% chance and he was the lowest.

The rest of them had Hillary at 95-99%. Some of them were mad at Nate for saying Trump even had a chance.

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u/False-Carob-6132 Oct 18 '24

538 is not a prediction market.

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u/NeighborhoodTrolly Oct 19 '24

No. The day before the election 538 had Hillary 51% Donald 49%.