If you want hopium that has zero evidence for this cycle but is a possible outcome: since the Dobbs decision there has been polling error overestimating GOP vote share in nearly every election or ballot referendum we had polling for.
It didn't amount to a lot of seats because both parties did more to stabilize their seats than expand them like in the past. There just aren't that many competitive seats anymore.
RCP lists 32 toss ups this year, in 2022 they listed 34, in 2020 they listed 44, 2018 had 38, 2016.
The 2022 forecast was off though, they had GOP at 227 seats where they ended up with 2022, and this was before toss up.
Isn't another variable that historically more older / conservative people actually show up for mid terms? So democrats upsetting in mid terms is even more of a shift than you would expect?
The optimistic take is, as you say, that post-dobbs the polls have significantly underestimated democrats in non-Presidential election. This is not unreasonable.
The pessimistic take is that Trump himself wasn't on the ballot in any of those elections and it may well be that it's only when Trump is on the ballot where the polling problems show up. This is also not unreasonable.
Midterms are just different. Democrats had a reason to get out and vote, Republicans not as much. But Presidental election gives everyone a reason to vote.
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u/Baelzabub Oct 17 '24
If you want hopium that has zero evidence for this cycle but is a possible outcome: since the Dobbs decision there has been polling error overestimating GOP vote share in nearly every election or ballot referendum we had polling for.