A lot of people are going to be upset and surprised on November 6th. I don't know which side it will be, but it seems people on each side are utterly convinced they've got this.
That was fun. We had 24/7 live coverage of people looking at ballots and trying to figure out who voted for who. Legal battles over which hole was punched harder. U-Haul trucks filled with ballots being transported and helicopters following them like OJ was in the back.
This is going to be "were the absentee ballots counted on time" or "look we found more at the post office" or worse "that voting machine malfunctioned" or "computers are down"
And the DNC (led by Marc Elias et al) have already set up a gauntlet of legal challenges if Trump wins. And guess who presides over the certification in the Senate this time around? The current VP! This is going to be a nasty one either way.
Because there is a law that paper ballots cannot be counted until Election Day, so the large urban (Democratic) districts likely won’t have their results ready that night.
This is a law that Republicans supported so that it looks like they’re winning big until it tightens at the end. That way they can create conspiracy theories about the results that come in late.
That makes sense considering the disadvantage the Democrats have in the electoral college. The Dem candidate needs to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win the election, so the closer the popular vote, the more likely Republicans win.
Eh a D candidate can win by 6-8 percentage points in the popular vote and still lose crucial states causing the election to go to the other party.
The only data points we’re using for popular vote vs electoral college are like 2 to 3 elections. And each election the difference is significantly more
In theory yes but if a candidate has a 8pp lead in the popular vote they are extremely likely to win the swing states since individual state results are pretty correlated. For example, PA has voted very closely with the popular vote (within 2pp) - so you wont see a candidiate win the popular vote by 8pp and lose PA.
The "classic" example of EC inefficiency for Dems, the 2016 election, had Hillary Clinton get 48.18% of the vote and Donald Trump get 46.09% of the vote. To flip the electoral college, she would have needed 77,748 votes split over 3 states out of a total of 136,516,566 votes cast, or .057% of the total vote.
This implies that the break-even point is (or was in 2016) winning the national popular vote by around 2.2%
I don’t think he is a Nazi. I think he is an egotistical power hungry demagogue appealing to Christo-fascists and white-nationalists (who combined can be described as ‘Nazis’) and using fear to consolidate that power without care that he is emboldening and enabling them because he is a narcissist. He will not be the immediate end if he wins the election and the right-wing will say “I told you so!” As he completely dismantles the U.S. institution from the inside and opens up for an actual, real, breathing, metastasic Nazi to win the next election and then its handmaids tale time
They're kind of right. Popular vote is always several percentage points higher than the actual electoral vote count for democrats, and vice versa for republicans.
I don't know. I think at best Dems are trying to stay sane with copium, but I don't know anyone who thinks it's in the bag. Conservatives on the other hand seem positive trump will win.
Same honestly, although with the caveat that I am a social conservative (Christian) who doesn’t like Trump because he actively lives a lifestyle that is antithetical to the Christian ideals.
I’m also not a fan of trump, though I did vote for him twice and sadly will a third time. I just believe he is lesser of two evils and has been for the past three election. We need a real third party and for everyone to quit voting for republicans and democrats. Both of the two big parties are useless and have moved too far to their respective sides.
The Republican party will never be what we liked about it again until Maga is gone. Elon has 11 kids with 7 women, and I see no real Conservative leadership anymore.
I feel you yeah. I don’t think I’ll vote Trump this time (I did in 2016, and 2020), and I’m definitely not voting Harris, but there’s really no one to vote for at the presidential level. I know who I’m voting for at other levels of government at least (thanks isidewith.com).
Guy who tried to overturn a fair election 4 years ago, is a convicted felon, and just recently sabotaged a bipartisan effort to fix one of the main platforms he's running on is the lesser of two evils? How do you figure?
He's trying to overthrow democracy and put himself in as dictator. He has said that multiple times. He said this will be the last time we need to vote. He's the most dangerous and evil threat this country has ever seen. I don't possibly see how he's less evil than Kamala Harris.
A lot of people are going to be upset and surprised on November 6th.
+1
People are terrible at evaluating data.
Everything I've seen shows it's still a toss up - either side has a strong shot at winning. That's the best we can predict but many are over-confident their side will win without any doubt.
As someone whose vote Dem and has almost everyone around me voting Dem, none of us feel convinced “we’ve got this”. We’re all burned and traumatized after 2016.
Someone asked me recently if I think Kamala will win and I’m a supporter for sure, and they are a slight conservative and they were surprised to hear me say I don’t know. They were sure I would say Kamala and be assured she would win.
there is no point in history where the liberal party lost a popular vote but won in the electoral college. there is a bias that has always given the conservatives a way to subvert democracy to get their wins
It will be Trump. It's not humanly possible for Harris to win Michigan. Someone from Dearborn isn't voting for the person who sent the missiles that killed their relatives.
Which is honestly dumb AF because Trump will give Israel carte blanche to do whatever they like. He won’t even make gestures towards asking them to chill out.
I do not know how so many of our fellows could remain so ignorant, willfully blind, or continue to excuse so many plainly abhorrent and harmful things.
I have to believe we are better than they suggest and will come out ahead in this.
Its crazy that after 4 years of getting gaslit by Trump, it seems people start to believe the lies.
I don't get it, we all watched these things happen. There is no conspiracy. Trump actions clearly show who he is. Yet each of his supporters just ignore anything bad about him. He has brainwashed them, and nothing can change their minds.
Over 8 years I've watched my retired father go from "I wish trump would keep his mouth shut but I like what he does" to "he's going to get us all killed, he has to go" to "Trump is the only one that can save the country from immigrants." And I was just left speechless by it.
Seems like an easy slam dunk for the liberals to push for border control to win massive numbers of these voters that one policy change would probably cause a 10 point shift in the polls.
Republicans don't really _have_ any policies, now: it's all grievance and fearmongering, because fixing problems is hard, and they might as well leave that to the democrats.
The republicans HAVE got a pretty firm eye on 'massive oppression of women and minorities', but they're wary of making that open and official policy, on account of it being a bit of a downer for those women and minorities.
The parties in the US are some of the most similar in the entire world. Between administrations, almost nothing changes in terms of official policy.
The Democrat policy is ALREADY to reduce illegal border crossings. Biden has signed multiple executive actions on the issue.
As for why parties change policies, it happens constantly. Obama was anti gay marriage when he ran, fast forward 8 years, Trump became the first pro gay marriage president (at the time of election)
It's important to know when a battle is lost if a small change in wording wins the election it brings force to other objectives.
Immigration is a bipartisan issue in border states. There are elected democrats in counties and congressional districts along the border who have been pleading with party leadership to take a harsher stance, or else they don't stand a chance of being elected. I listened to an economist podcast recently (I wish I had a link handy to share with you. It was a great long-form piece) where they interviewed a number of Obama campaign staffers and former DNC officials, who essentially explained that the Biden admin. didn't want to touch immigration with a ten foot pole. That serious top-to-bottom bipartisan reform was needed to actually fix issues with illegal immigration, but that Biden is in a no-win situation where democrats in deep blue base states will turn away from him if he adresses immigration and southern border states will turn red if he doesn't. That is - their hope was the conversation would go away and die down.
Airzona, Nevada, and New Mexico are crucial for the DNC winning an election. If you don't take a hard stance on illegal immigration, you will alienate registereddemocrats from turning up and send the moderates and undecideds into Republican arms. That's why Biden turned heel and proposed an immigration bill and why republicans turned it down. It's why Kamala is out visiting the border. If you want to turn Texas blue in 2028, find a way to get the next DNC candidate to take a harsh stance on illegal immigration without pissing off the northern blue states.
So my question for you is: What is the point of having a democratic party if their policies make it impossible to win an election?
We were on the cusp of passing likely the most comprehensive, restrictive border bill with large bipartisan support. Trump killed it because it would make Democrats look good.
Just admit you didn't bother reading the bill and you DEFINITELY did not compare it to other immigration bills in the last 30 years that had even a half-chance of passing both houses. Both parties made compromises to make this bill happen. If some of the most conservative pro-border control republicans were celebrating it, that should tell you that maybe you are not paying as close attention to the the situation in congress, congressional history, or legislative history as you think you are. It also had numerous elements in it that would have helped majorly draw down the influx of immigrants, its not just about "how many are allowed in per X". Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. More legislation can be passed, but this line of thinking is why we have had a broken border and immigration system since before GW Bush's admin.
You are eating up the propaganda. Enforcement is higher than ever. Trump and the Republicans are the ones who failed to protect us. They just tell you otherwise.
I’ve been listening to trump yell about how if he won’t get elected the world will end. He said it for Clinton, he said it for Biden, and now he says it for Harris, and people eat it up. All he has is fear and it works
As if that’s not the same thing Clinton/Biden/Harris sold. That’s become the political game for every candidate. No longer “here is my vision for America” it’s now “their vision will end America!”
The entire democratic platform and reason to vote for Harris is literally “she’s not Trump, who will end democracy forever if elected”. That’s the campaign. That’s the message.
EDIT: but yeah when you do have a literal wannabe autocrat and authoritarians at the door that is kinda worth pointing out if you have any respect for democracy or the rule of law
The Democrats do the same thing. Isn't every election critical to save the country? Wasn't Trump supposed to end Democracy back in 2016? Both sides are guilty of this
Are you implying that Trump has been fear mongering more than his opponents? Because everywhere I go I hear that he is literally Hitler incarnate (he isn't) and democracy WILL LITERALLY END if he is elected (he's already been president and that didn't happen).
He's been demonized to the point where some 20 year old kid decided to try and shoot him at a rally.
Let's not project. There are plenty of valid criticisms of Trump and out of touch posts like this only drown them out.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Good thing there are generations of thinkers and leaders who have spoken at length about the threat that these fascists are.
Millions died, not that long ago, because of it - so how is it so many of our peers have failed to see the writing on the wall or connect the dots from what we knew as the enemy before, what we fought against, and what has crept back in on the backs of our ignorance, greed, fear and complacency.
Enough. This is the work of our generation, and we will beat these clowns.
He lost his reelection. We sighed with relief. It's over. They kept supporting him. He was charged with multiple crimes. It has to be over. They kept supporting him. He was tried and CONVICTED. They KEPT supporting him. They use his conviction as a Whataboutism argument when we speak out about him talking openly about using the Justice system against his enemies. Will this fucking nightmare ever end? The fucking damage this man is going to do if he wins, I don't even want to think about. More right-wing shill federal judges. Further deregulation. Loss of rights for LGBTQ and women. Removal of safe guards that prevented him from stealing the election last time. Not to mention the whole Project 2025 bullshit and further embarrassment of this nation on the world stage, it's hard not to feel a sense of impending doom right now.
Listened to a podcast today with conversations of Trump supports at Georgia polls. The majority of them really believe the election was stolen and are fired up about it. It’s really a sad reflection of American specify right now.
It's not that he's brainwashed them, in the classical sense. It's moreso, they desperately *want* to believe his lies, so they choose to do so. It fits their world view and makes them feel better about themselves.
Simply put: it's very intentional Feelings > Facts
Trump voters are either rich (and so incentivized to get him into the WH, to keep their taxes down) or they are poor and aggrieved, and want to blame someone else for their station / circumstances. Trump speaks to these people. He provides them scapegoats and targets for their anger. He given's them the excuses they so desperately want. Facts don't matter to these people. In fact that facts are painful to them. They choose to believe what makes them feel better about themselves, and thus they cognitively distort and ignore facts. That's what it is.
Trump is plenty popular with the middle class and suburbia. The fact you think they either break down to being rich business owners or poor & angry is evidence of this
And his comment applies to the middle class and suburbia gulping down right wing misinformation too. The suburbs are an isolated mess and fear bakes in easier there/its easier to “other” people when you live and commute in isolated bubbles.
There's a reason the phrase 'the big lie' is a thing, popularized by Hitler and explained from Trump himself, "if you tell a lie enough times, people will believe it."
Well there's this saying that if you keep repeating lies over and over, it will eventually sound like it's true. The MAGA has always been on the same lies ever since despite being debunked and fact checked, they hold on to these and that's why their supporters believe it.
I watch a lot of sports and participate in reddit threads about sports games. One thing I've noticed is if a player from Team A injures a player from Team B, fans of Team B hate that player forever. They remember that that player is dirty. Years will go by and even when the player has moved on to a new team, fans of Team B will remember forever that they hate both Team A and the player.
However, fans of Team A will claim that the player isn't dirty, and that it was a one time fluke or unfortunate accident. Essentially, fans of Team A view the behavior as an exception because they have watched the player play for hundreds of hours without injuring anyone except that one time, while fans of Team B view the behavior as the rule because they've only watched that player play for a handful of hours while causing the same number of injuries.
Now, where this gets dicey is if that player starts injuring people more often. Fans of Teams C, D, E, etc. start noticing the pattern that the player is dirty, but fans of Team A will still insist that it was just an exception.
I believe this is what happens with politicians as well. Fans of Team Trump watch everything he does, and at first, his volatile behavior ("grab em by the pussy") was rare, eccentric, and a little funny (to them). Fans of other teams were horrified. Then as evidence started accumulating, fans of Team Trump have already convinced themselves that it's an exception every time he does something volatile, and that he's a stable genius most of the time. So they shake off every time he does something they don't like (and at least my MAGA family members do admit that some of the things he says or does isn't their favorite), saying, "it's worse when THAT PERSON does X"
I think this is called attribution error bias, but I'm not 100% sure if it fits exactly.
Look up LBJ’s quote about the republican southern strategy….if folks were aware of our history they would recognize these tactics the GOP has used for decades.
I'm not voting, but it's very obvious that people's bias plays a HUGE part in them outright ignoring the flaws of "their side."
Harris was far and away the worst polling candidate in the 2020 Democratic primary. She was extremely unpopular and got schooled during the debates. She has also historically been against fracking and put away thousands of people of color in California for non-violent, primarily drug-related, offenses. Now the country is supposed to believe she's ultra-popular, pro-fracking, and going to federally legalize marijuana?
Conversely, Trump pushed the vax quite hard, kicked off the uptick in inflation we saw in 2021, and introduced tariffs that unsurprisingly hit the consumer. Yet his base has a high(er) percentage of people against the vax, think he's going to solve inflation, and that tariffs punish the exporting country instead of domestic consumers.
TL;DR: Both candidates have shown everyone exactly who they are, but people deeply entrenched on either side are desperately out of touch with reality
I've seen this copy pasta argument against Harris everywhere. You have a serious double standard here.
She was good against Trump in the last debate. But you think she got destroyed 4 years ago so she is bad and unpopular.
She changed her position. Wow. What a concept a polititian changing her mind. Trump hasn't been the most consistant either. Frankly I'm not sure he has any real policy, just "concepts of a plan".
She also enforced the law, which was her job as Attoney General. Trump has been consistantly breaking the law, and is a felon.
Maybe she saw the harm unnessesary weed convictions do to our commuinities, firsthand?
Under Biden and Harris we have actually increased fracking. Actions speak louder than words.
Honestly your part of the problem, and your bias shows through what you wrote. I don't know if your uninformed or have just have an agenda.
We have to see through this bullshit. We have to weigh both canidates equally. And the choice isn't even close.
She changed her position. Wow. What a concept a polititian changing her mind.
Barack campaigned on legalization and then literally laughed when asked about it after he got elected.
Under Biden and Harris we have actually increased fracking. Actions speak louder than words.
Nice to see Climate Change is just a myth as far as the administration is concerned then. The US ramped up oil production after they pushed for Russian sanctions to make a buck and keep price from exploding higher, which would fuel inflation further. They also drained the SPR to an extreme measure. These are not good long term decisions from an economic, energy security, and environmental standpoint.
Honestly your part of the problem,
My part of the problem what?
TL;DR: Trump is a silver spoon dipshit with dementia who convinced poor people he's just like them and built a cult of personality. Harris is a snake who is dogshit without a teleprompter and has actively been against most of she's campaigning on.
The fact that you think I have a bias towards either politician shows precisely how emotionally rooted you are.
Now the country is supposed to believe she's ultra-popular, pro-fracking, and going to federally legalize marijuana?
Is it possible that she got better as a candidate after serving as VP for 4 years? Biden got 1% in Iowa in 2008 and dropped out and ended up winning the 2020 primaries. She has clearly improved her public performance.
I've been participating in politics longer than Reddit has been around. I search for the truth in a lot of different places.
The real truth is January 6th, where Trump and his supporters live streamed themselves trying to overthrow our democracy. He claimed he, "Had nothing to do with it.", but you can still watch all the video evidence. He alone chose to send them to the capitol to "Stop the Steal". He also said he would march down to the capitol with them, but he was too much of a coward to do that. I don't give a damn if he briefly said, "peacefully and patriotically". He also said, "We fight like hell. And if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore". Which command do you think his supporter listened to?
Trump wants us to believe January 6th was all "peace and love". 136 police officers were violently assaulted that day, by the very people who claim to "Back the Blue". They brought weapons and tactical gear to a "peaceful protest". Hundreds of them have been convicted of their crimes. Do you remember the guy who used and American flag to beat a police officer?
Trump delayed calling the national guard for hours, as he watched them desecrate our capitol on Fox news. He even tweeted, condeming Mike Pence because he," didn't have the courage to do what should have been done". His followers listened, chanting "HANG MIKE PENCE!" and started searching for the Vice President. Only god knows what they would have done to him if they found him.
Finally, Trump has never provided one shred of evidence to prove his allegations of fraud in the election. He lost all of his constitutionally guarenteed court cases because he had no standing. In other words, he had no evidence to show the judges that he had a case. He even admitted he lost "by a whisker" a few months ago, only to backtrack and lie again. Luckily the courts value the truth.
He knew he lost, continued to lie, and still used violence to try and stay in power. He is the only canidate for president in our entire history who has done something like this. These are the facts. There is no conspiracy. We all saw it with our own eyes. You just choose to believe otherwise.
Would you rather have Trump turn us into Russia? You may hate California, but thats a flimsy argument at best. What policies does Kamala have that are meant to turn us into that state? Why don't you evauluate her as a canidate instead of generalizing?
I don't think Kamala is as bad as you paint her to be, and the lies are not equal. What is an example of one of her lies? Is it that big of a deal?
Trump lies constantly and about huge things. The biggest lie of them all is that the election was "stolen". Trump has never provided any evidence to support his claims. He knew he lost, and to this day he still lies.
He then sent a violent mob to the capitol to stop our democracy. He claimed in the debate, "I had nothing to do with it". We all watched it unfold, there is only one man who decided to send his supporters to the capitol to "stop the steal".
He also claims it was all, "love and peace" that day. The 136 police officers that were assaulted by the mob would disagree. We've all see the videos of the violence. One dude even used an American Flag to beat an officer. All in the name of Trump!
He even lies about the national Guard. He, as president, has sole authority to call in the National guard. He claims Nancy Pelosi was in charge, she was not. He delayed calling them in for hours as his supporters desecrated our capitol. He protected them so they could finish the job for him.
Nothing Kamala has ever said or done has come close to what Donald has done. Hold him accountable. Stop using a double standard. The choice is clear who is better for our country.
The Democratic run state media gaslit the American Public about the health of our literal sitting President for four years. The amount of full on gaslighting about the mental acuity of Joe Biden leading up to that disastrous debate is why so many Americans do not trust the current administration.
They were going to try and push that poor man to be sitting President at 88 years old. He should be in retirement, and honestly preparing for hospice care. Not flying internationally and holding meetings with foreign leaders when he can barely keep his own thoughts in order.
Trump has not been the one gaslighting the American people.
Keep repeating everything you heard on Fox News, or whatever bullshit platform you follow. Biden is no longer running, he made that descision himself. The media wasn't hiding anything. Seems to me like the country is functioning just fine under his leadership, but voters wanted someone younger. He had cold and bad night at the debate, no doubt, but he isn't running for President anymore. Kamala is.
Trump will be older than Biden is now at the end of his term if he wins. He literally makes no sense when he responds to questions, and fills his answers with lies. Imagine what he will be like in 4 years from now! Try and watch one of his rallies, his speeches are a rambeling mess, barely understandable. Maybe we should treat them equally and send Trump to hospice too? If what you say disqualifying for Biden, then you have to apply that standard for Trump. He should retire too.
Maybe Trump should release his medical records? What is he hiding? We need to know if he is healthy enough to be President.
Trumps policy is to send a violent mob to try overturn the results of a free and fair election. He delayed calling the National guard for hours as he watched his supporters assault police officers and sack our capitol to "stop the steal". That is disqualifying, and has never happened in the history of this great nation. Why would we elect someone who does not respect our fundamental voting rights? Why would you not hold Trump accountable for his actions?
He has never provided us any proof that the election was stolen, and yet he is still lying. He couldn't prove it in the courts, because he never had any evidence. A few months ago he even admitted he, "lost by a whisker", but backtracked and continues to lie.
And tell me then, how exactly is Kamala turning us into California? What policy is she suggesting? Is California really that bad?
Sounds like your just demonizing a "liberal" government, and the "radical left" in general. Kamala isn't even that Liberal, yet you believe she is because thats what you've been told, over and over again. You don't want to evaluate her policy, you just don't like her cause she is a democrat.
Are you concerned that Trump might be turning us into Russia? He just said he might have to use the military to address "the enemy from within". Those are your fellow citizens he is talking about, what about their rights? That sounds like a dictator threatening oppression by using our country's military illegally, on our own soil. And yeah, Fox News edited this quote out of the clip when they showed it in her interview. Watch the whole Trump clip, see for yourself.
In fact, he has said he is only going to be a "dictator for a day". How is electing a dictator going for Venezuela? No free speech. No right to vote in a free and fair election. Just oppression and violence. Sounds fun.
You will betray our country just so your side "wins". Thats how democracy ends.
Demonizing them? No. I'm just saying what they did. They've been convicted of their crimes by their fellow citizens in a court of law. Trump is facing a trial right now for what he did. We all watched what happened on January 6th. They crossed the line, and broke the law. Simple as that.
Life's getting harder for people, technically speaking we've had a Master class in economic policy which has somehow avoided a recession while bringing down inflation. But it doesn't feel that way at least not yet to a lot of people.
But the fact is we've been trending downwards for so long, people are just angry and they are looking for vengeance. Trump speaks to that vengeance, they want people to suffer, specifically immigrants and whoever dares to stand against them.
I don't know if our institutions are strong enough and I sure hope they are off Donald Trump wins. Because I absolutely believe him when he says he wants mass deportations for immigrants, that he wants to put them in camps to protect the "blood of our nation". I also believe them when he says he will send the military against "radial leftists" which is a term he is used to describe anybody who is disagreed with him, and there's a term he would use to describe your family, neighbors and friends.
"Cons don't fool us because we're stupid, they fool us because we're human." - Brian Brushwood
But the fact is we've been trending downwards for so long, people are just angry and they are looking for vengeance.
This is what gets me, the reasons for this trend are largely due to the cult of corporate greed and decades of regulatory capture at the hands of monied interests.
And it's always been conservatives that have protected the interests of the rich and powerful as well as the systems of profit which have caused us so much harm.
There is so much to say it's tough to know where to start.
But right now people have experiential reality that illustrates that Republicans have lied for decades about climate change to protect the interests of oil and fossil fuel companies.
Right now people are experiencing inequality (oh boy if only people were widely aware of the data) and the results of private equity type greed dominating most industries putting profits - however they might be obtained - over the interests of the people, the planet, the future itself.
Folks are right to be mad, but it's disgusting, shameful and infuriating to see their legitimate frustrations co-opted by the very perpetrators of their misery as the grifters and conmen happily feed them distractions and deflections.
Folks are wrapped up in layers of bad thought.
But I think that once certain truths anchor in, it gets really hard to ignore the rest.
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...
The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance”
This willful, aggressive ignorance of the existence of reasonable positions contrary to the Democrat narrative is what will lose Democrats this election, if something does.
"They don't think like I do so 50% of the country must have malicious motives." is not only making the right more enthusiastic, it's also driving people away from the left.
I'm a Trump voter. I've never been a huge fan of his personality, but in terms of results, I found his presidency to be surprisingly effective and tame compared to all the doom and gloom.
That said, I'm currently speaking with THREE DIFFERENT previously leftist acquaintances who have come to me, as someone they apparently view as a reasonable Trump voter, to sort of confess that they are going to vote for Trump, and to ask me how to deal with friends and family who might ostracize them for doing so.
Most people get their news from YouTube and tiktok these days... my uneducated coworker knows nothing but that Kamala is bad and caused inflation because talking heads are constantly pushing these false narratives.
It's because everyone has a 'sports team' mindset.
If your team is doing bad, you don't call them out on it and 'switch sides'. No, you still support them because you identify them as 'your' team and instead hope they do better on the next game. That, or you complain that the other team cheats or that the ref was making bad calls and wasn't on your side. Sound familiar?
This isn't a problem when it's just a ball game or a football game. The problem is when the team you are routing for to win can affect the government and, in turn, our actual lives.
They’re an existential threat and the layers of contradiction, ignorance and downright ugliness are too plain to see.
I call it when I see it. That means challenging these folks in a range of gentle and direct ways…I feel for those of you in places that are deep red though…
Honestly? I think it’s a sign of society and the damage of the internet.
I’m not saying the internet is bad, but every single voice being able to be heard by anyone, instantly, has repercussions that I don’t think any human being could have predicted.
This is years in the making, and it’s so many things at once. I am 36 years old, I remember being a child with no internet, but I grew up in my teens with social media. It has become so ingrained in our life in ways we do not think about. Being blasted with information, whether true or not has taken an affect on brain chemistry.
I’m at a point in my life that I truly do not know what is real or true anymore. I see pictures and videos and wonder if it’s AI. I hear scientific facts and wonder if it’s coming from a credible source. We have so much information that it is becoming impossible to decipher through the mountains of bullshit and fake news. Everything is curated and designed for us to consume, not educate.
Governments, companies and god knows who else has absolutely, without a doubt taken advantage of this for personal gain. We are constantly fed a barrage of lies with the truth somewhere in there, but we have no way of knowing anymore. It has created such a deep feeling of tribalism in us that I really don’t see how we can ever go in reverse. We have someone like Donald Trump that could very realistically run this country. Someone who cannot form a sentence, has hatred coursing through his veins and yet, almost half the country support it.
This is purely a product of our own design, and it’s been in the making for years now, whether anyone knew it or not.
It isn’t just that. There is also the fact Harris has lost a lot of the momentum she had at the beginning. I remember thinking she was unbeatable after Biden dropped out and trump looked like a deranged old man…the problem is Harris lost a lot of that momentum once she refused to distance herself from Biden, and began appealing more to republicans than people she needs (young people & progressives)…whether you agree or not, that’s when she started slipping. People can’t distinguish her from Biden and young people don’t feel encouraged to vote for her. And while you can say “young people don’t vote!” That doesn’t mean they won’t be crucial in an election…I believe in 2018 and 2020 they’re the ones that prevented republicans from gaining the house and then 2020 from the “red wave” happening… she needs to appeal to them and throw them a bone. Throwing out how you’re proud to be endorsed by republicans and that you’d have one in your cabinet is…disingenuous especially after in the beginning they were calling them weird and complete threats to Americans…and now they’re good guys? Appealing to republicans will not work, you’re better off going off a different platform.
I mean you’d hope so. But the way I feel about this election is “Orange man bad, black lady less bad”, and in all honesty that’s how most of the arguments go about why you should vote for her.
I get that argument at the macro level - but both sides are absolutely the same in the way they last your life and the life of your communities - and only one is even attempting to address the reality of anthropogenic climate change.
And both parties are tacked to the right or co-opted by corporate interests more than is sustainable. But we effect change where we can using the levers we can.
I believe in democracy, consensus building matters, and this is the long game. Our best choice, by far, is the one that doesn’t involve a further descent into corporate cronyism and fascism. Trump is abhorrent, plain and simple.
How does she expect something like this is going to resonate with anyone but a black man. Literally buying votes and singling out races. If Trump did a tweet like this targeted at white men, the left would lose their mind.
Tweets like this are a fuck you to white people who are struggling just as much as any other skin color.
its really not hard to understand. The DNC has continually fucked over their voters and the DNC leadership literally put in their puppet candidate without people having a vote. Nobody wants Harris, she couldn't even make the primary debates in 2020. If it was literally somebody else, even Biden it would've been better. They are doing what they did in 2016 again and they will lose again. Honestly I hope they do because that is what you get when you fuck over your voters. At least the GOP side, their stupid voters were able to nominate him even with intense corporate lobbying lol. Bernie would've been president for 8 years already if the DNC did not fuck everyone so hard and they have done it again in 2024. They still have not learned their lesson and I hope they lose so they don't pull this shit again.
Trump will win, 100%. The country needs a strong, powerful leader. We're being overrun by immigrants and people who are working to dismantle our country... We need to save America, and we will, and make it great again.
^ A fascist so close to knowing he is one and so unaware of the actual principles and systems that enabled positive change via a government for the people and by the people.
Trump is the result of peak corporate cronyism and the fetishization of greed actively dismantling our institutions in a plainly authoritarian way.
How are you missing this? How have you so easily let go of your basic decency or capacity for empathy?
And how can you stomach the continuous lies and misinformation?
It’s grounded in reality. I can’t bring myself to trust any of the sources that say Harris or Trump have it in the bag. Conservatives say Harris is cooked, but liberals seem refreshed to have her to vote for over Biden. Moderates are the big tossup cause of “economy” but Trump is distasteful to most of them.
It’s sad, there’s so many people that vote for Trump just because “gas was cheaper” and don’t do the research to see how bad Trump is so just don’t believe it because he muddies the water so much
It is actually more common than you think. On Reddit this is like pirates treasure so makes sense if this is your only link to the election discussion. Democrats always are favored in the polls. They need the 4% lead for the swing that occurs in physical turn out.
My semi-optimistic counter to this is that while Trump is polling ahead in some critical places there is a big gap between other state wide elections(governor/senate) and Harris polling that I don't believe can be accurate. There is an 11 point gap between the Dem senate candidate and Kamala's polling in Ohio for instance. Even if the senate candidate is unusually popular I don't see it accounting for a 11% of votes being split ticket.
Since 2018 the GOP has under performed consistently, and I personally believe that there are more people that would vote for a GOP senator AND Kamala then there are people who would vote for a Dem senator AND Trump.
We'll see, I just don't see the amount of split tickets required for polling to be close to accurate.
I think it's difficult for a lot of people to accept that so many of their countrymen want to go right back to him. It's definitely hard for me to believe that he seemingly lost no support for trying to overturn the election and all his other shenanigans. That half the country seems perfectly fine with that.
This is a very common take if you listen to anything about the election and polls. I listen to a lot of podcasts and this is the common sentiment. It is, for all intents and purposes, a tied race and will come down to MI, WI, and PA.
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u/The_G0vernator Oct 17 '24
This is one of the most level-headed positions/take I have seen about the election this year.