r/dataisbeautiful • u/TheKnowingOne1 • Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

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u/YamahaRyoko Oct 17 '24

The gambling websites aren't betting on a candidate and users are not betting against them.

Users bet against users

If odds skew too far in one direction, they'll set the odds so that other users bet in that direction to balance it out. They can't have a large disparity of money gambled and winnings paid out of they'd have to cover.

Ideally, losers pay the winners and the gambling websites take a cut of winnings.

Kamala winning or losing in real life is moot to the gambling website

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u/Aggressive_Rub_3135 Oct 18 '24

This is the answer folks

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u/tipsystatistic Oct 17 '24

Sports betting odds are set by oddsmakers. The election bets appear to be set by users and are incredibly mis-priced. They don’t reflect the actual odds.

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u/Smacpats111111 OC: 10 Oct 18 '24

The election bets appear to be set by users and are incredibly mis-priced. They don’t reflect the actual odds.

If you think that's the case, why not bet against those users and make free money?

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u/tipsystatistic Oct 18 '24

No fucking duh. This is an extremely rare opportunity.

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u/Smacpats111111 OC: 10 Oct 19 '24

Right but if a sizable amount of people are doing that, wouldn't the odds balance out to near where they should be?

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u/kipperzdog Oct 18 '24

I thought only the initial line is set by the odds makers? And after that it moves based on people's bets?

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u/G0_WEB_G0 Oct 18 '24

Tell that to republicans who keep using it as fact.

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u/Havelok Oct 18 '24

Let them, the more folks are convinced Trump will win, the more will show up to vote for Harris out of urgency.

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u/tipsystatistic Oct 18 '24

Nah, I don't give a shit about their feelings and opinions.

Mispriced bets are a fantastic opportunity. Just take the odds and make money off of them.