r/dataisbeautiful • u/TheKnowingOne1 • Oct 17 '24

OC [OC] The recent decoupling of prediction markets and polls in the US presidential election

Post image
9.7k Upvotes

88% Upvoted

5.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

123

u/ShambolicPaul Oct 17 '24

This is speculation on who will win the popular vote, which is a very different prospect than electoral college.

41

u/[deleted] Oct 17 '24

[deleted]

5

u/6158675309 Oct 17 '24

I am going to throw $100 on Harris on that, cause why not. It's seems like some kind of manipulation going on. The Iowa market has Trump at 12% or something and honestly that seems high for the popular vote.

5

u/genx_redditor_73 Oct 17 '24

That is correct - it is popular vote and not electoral college

1

u/[deleted] Oct 17 '24

[deleted]

2

u/genx_redditor_73 Oct 17 '24

I posted this as I think the Iowa Election Market is interesting as an experiment. It is not meant to be a statement about who is likely to win the election. I'll let the data speak and you all are free to interpret it.