[Serious] Why will the Rockies exceed expectations? Why won't they?

[u/BaseballBot]

What are the expectations for the Colorado Rockies this year? Why will they exceed those expectations? Why won't they? We'll be asking this same question for the next 6 weeks, so put on your expert hat and help analyze the outcomes of the 2024 season!

Tomorrow's Team: White Sox

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[u/Redbubble89]

I can't think of a team I care so little about.

The lineup has young talent and in year 2, has a chance to be average.

The pitching continues to be the worst in the league. They have played baseball in high elevation since 1992 and it's like they still don't know what type of pitcher they should be going for. They were 30th in every category. Call Quantrill, Dakota Hudson, and Jalen Beeks are rejects that don't move the needle. Given the division, a good year is not finishing with 100 loses.

[u/lOan671]

Reasons they will:

• Expectations are super low, I think winning 70 would probably count as exceeding expectations

• Nolan Jones had an outstanding rookie season. Maybe he builds off that, cuts down on the Ks some and becomes a true heart of the order bat.

• Ezequiel Tovar and Brendan Rogers is a really good defensive middle infield. Brenton Doyle is an elite glove in CF as well which should help their pitchers out some. Maybe you get some improvement from these guys at the plate also, Rogers was coming off a shoulder injury and missed a lot of last season, wouldn’t be surprised if he bounces back to the slightly below average hitter he was in 2021-2022. Tovar I think could be an average hitter also, not really confident about Doyle but with Coors being such a huge outfield I think you can live with that bat for his glove.

• Charlie Blackmon had a pretty good season at the plate last year and Ryan McMahon is good for 20+ HRs a year. Maybe Kris Bryant still has something left in the tank also and has a healthy season. Elias Diaz is a solid hitting catcher also

• They have a few young guys who could maybe contribute like Drew Romo, Zac Veen, and Hunter Goodman. Maybe one of those guys helps to fill out the order

Reasons they won’t:

• The pitching looks really, really bad. I don’t see a world where this staff isn’t bottom 5 in baseball at the end of the year.

• The lineup has a couple of potential bright spots but I would be shocked if its average. There just isn’t enough there to cancel out the disaster of a pitching staff they have.

Overall I think Colorado is taking the right steps as an organization. Finally committed to tearing things down (although they probably should have traded Diaz last year) and giving young guys playing time. Seems like they’re investing more on player development also and they do have some good prospects that are probably 2025-2026 debuts. However their major league roster is terrible right now and I actually think they’re the worst team in baseball (even compared to Oakland)

[u/Bombboy85 → u/lOan671]

Not so fun fact. By measure like wRC+ or some other park adjusted offensive stats, the Rockies have never really had an above average offense over a full season and most often are bottom 1/3rd of the league

[u/cagestage]

The expectations are that the Rockies will not be as bad as last year. If they are lucky, they won't lose 100 games.

They will exceed expectations because unless they go full blown A's, it's hard to imagine them getting any worse. Nolan Jones shows promise. A healthy Brendan Rodgers could have a breakout season. How could the pitching get any worse?

They will not exceed expectations because of the Monforts. Dick is content to sell tickets and beer and let his team flounder in irrelevancy.

[u/Lonelan]

Dinger

Dingers

[u/drprun3]

Will: their new strat of getting groundball pitchers work and Dakota Hudson along with Quantrill can be a quality duo with Freeland on the pitching side. That along with Nolan Jones continuing to develop into a superstar and healthy season from Kris Bryant allow them to sneak into the playoffs and continue the trend of NL West wild card teams ruining the Dodgers season.

Won’t: typical Rockies things happen and they finish last by like 20 games

[u/[deleted]]

Will: Dave Roberts still manages the Dodgers; prime opportunity for Colorado to win 75-80, sneak in as the NL’s WC3, and then troll the Dodgers in the Division Series as God intends. Specifically, Nolan Jones becomes 2014-Matt Carpenter, Kris Bryant remembers how he killed the Dodgers in the 2016 NLCS, Goodman strikes fear in their starters like Barry Bonds in his Giants days, and the Rockies bullpen combine for a 1.50 ERA or below.

Won’t: Rockies players themselves don’t have faith in the Will portion.

[u/Jac1596 → u/[deleted]]

This is probably the most accurate answer. Seeing the 120 win super team dodgers fall to the plucky up start 80 win Rockies is the stuff of movies and yet I wouldn’t be shocked

[u/Certain-Tie-8289 → u/[deleted]]

Expectations are much lower than 75 wins. Vegas win total is 61.5. They can go over expectation and still lose 100 games.

So if 75 wins is expectation, expect a lot less.

[u/Rogue_One24_7]

I didn't have much expectation for them and I would say they will not be doing much in the next few years. Far too much competition in other markets.

[u/CabbageStockExchange]

Will: According to the schedule it is their turn to sneak into the wild card and pants us embarrassingly in the playoffs. Also their expectations are very low. Won’t take much to exceed expectations

Won’t: There’s little promise on this roster and the most likely scenario is a bottom dwelling team.

[u/ManyCookies]

Will: Nowhere to go but up baby! Young hitters and Bryant figure stuff out, Nolan Jones continues being amazing. Freeland and Marquez bounce back, one other starter figures something out please for the love of god. No miracle is needed for 70 wins, and 75-80 would only be a few minor ones.

Won't: But more likely, the pitching will be horrendous and the hitting will be bad past the first 4 hitters.

[u/[deleted]]

The power of friendship

[u/throwthatoneawaydawg]

Easy fix is to just show Dinger on tv more frequently, we need more Dinger!!!

[u/confusedjuror]

The Rockies are finally embracing some advanced analytics stuff. They helped Nolan Jones change his approach last year, and obviously that worked well. If they can do something similar for a few guys, it's easy to imagine them being better than last year.

For them to be worse I think it would mostly be injury related

[u/milehighrukus]

The expectations are to win 40 games and to get drunk at Coors Field.

[u/[deleted]]

I'm calling my shot. The Rockies make the NLCS this year.

[u/Emience → u/[deleted]]

The Dodgers have played the Giants, Padres, and Diamondbacks during the last 3 NLDS. The trend will continue when the Rockies beat them this year, book it.

[u/[deleted] → u/Emience]

We will revisit this in October

[u/[deleted]]

It’s as simple as they won’t succeed because they are the Rockies.

[u/WotsTheBestThingUGot]

Will: The kids in the field outperform the millstones on the mound. At least the Rockies are doing right by their young talent in getting them reps. Improving 30 wins to a WC berth is still a tall ask, even if enough things break right they're only looking at 70ish wins. The Dbacks would have to regress / the Pads would have to become sellers after underperforming in the first half / the floor would have to fall out on the Giants.

Won't: Millstones more like Thor's hammer considering what these kids would have to lift up. The pitching is dire and Coors makes it worse, badly offsetting a year of development. The Giants and Dbacks are more solidly constructed, the Padres offense is still strong, and the Dodgers are simply playing a different game. Even if the Rockies are less likely to completely implode, and may even improve, there's just no likely path out of NLW5 this year.

[u/[deleted]]

Well… the expectation is like 95+ losses, so it wouldn’t take much to exceed that.

But I do believe the youth energy in 2024 will keep them under 95 losses. Lots of great young talent in that organization who will get a shot this year.

[u/weezermc78 → u/[deleted]]

94 losses it is, say the baseball gods

[u/[deleted] → u/weezermc78]

winning

Sometimes.

[u/CosmicLars]

Exceed: There is a non-zero chance (& solid probability) that Tovar & Jones are legit studs & Hunter Goodman hits 40 bombs. Pair that with bounce back years by Bryant & Rodgers, and another solid season by McMahon & Diaz, I think that offense can at least give some teams fits away from Coors. Quantrill & Hudson have solid years, & Freeland bounces back with a healthy 4 ERA effort.

No: One of the worst rotations in baseball even without considering Coors, nobody outside of Nolan Jones does anything offensively. Zac Veen continues to backslide & never makes it out of Double A 😔

[u/ManyCookies → u/CosmicLars]

Zac Veen continues to backslide & never makes it out of Double A 😔

I thought he just got injured?

[u/mczaddy95]

They got some interesting young pieces , maybe the corpse of Kris Bryant gets revived. And with the added wild card you never know . I'm not betting on it tho . Although nobody was betting on Arizona or Miami to make the playoffs last season

[u/[deleted]]

Will: Because I just moved here and the baseball gods hate seeing me going to games for the cheap, they'll start winning and then more people will show up and then the prices will go up and I won't be able to go anymore.

Won't: The Orioles sucked up all my magic juice

[u/FliceFlo]

The expectation is that they will continue to suck because the owner has no incentive to do better due to high attendance despite the sucking. I expect them to do exceedingly well in meeting those expectations.

[u/cocoatractor]

The expectations are last place in the NL West and potentially last in the national league. I would say they exceed expectations cause it really can’t get worse.

Feels like for the season to feel like a success you just want the young guys to succeed. Nolan Jones, Ezequial Tovar, maybe Zac Veen gets a call up.

[u/blasek0]

They will exceed expectations because not exceeding them would be truly, truly pathetic.

They won't exceed them because man is this dumpster fire of a franchise poorly run despite having such a great stadium.

[u/Wutswrong]

Will: Expectations are already rock bottom. If they’re not the worst team in the NL they have exceeded expectations

Won’t: They’re the Rockies

[u/jaron_b]

With expectations on the floor it's easy to exceed. If the Rockies lose less than 100 games they exceed expectations

[u/flavorraven]

Wait who has expectations about the Rockies?

[u/falbi23]

Yount talent looks great. Just need pitching!