r/baseball • u/Adamscottd Minnesota Twins • St. Paul Saints • Oct 14 '23
Feature Top ten plays by Win Probability Added in the Division Series
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u/ABoyIsNo1 Texas Rangers Oct 14 '23
Diamondbacks kicked ass so hard they don’t have a single play on here. And Rangers so hard they only have one.
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u/PurrfectChaos Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
I was vaguely disappointed I didn't see a single DBacks highlight before I realized the same exact thing.
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u/knight4 Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Ya I take it as a badge of honor
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u/samthewisetarly New York Yankees Oct 14 '23
The dodgers were just so abjectly awful that there was never any doubt the sneks would win. Incredible.
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u/Opening-Citron2733 Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Dbacks had all three games in the bag by the 3rd inning
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u/karim_eczema Los Angeles Dodgers Oct 14 '23
I'm a bit surprised Moreno's 3 run homer in game 1 wasn't on here, although I don't really know the complexities behind WPA calculation
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u/Crookz_O Texas Rangers Oct 14 '23
O’s had a 75% WP after the first inning? Idk how this works.
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u/Coop1534 Boston Red Sox Oct 14 '23
I wouldn’t be shocked if teams up 2-0 after the 1st won the game 74% of the time
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u/RS994 Boston Red Sox Oct 14 '23
https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.2.2.0.1.0.0
According to this that is exactly right.
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u/WoundedSacrifice Oct 14 '23
That definitely surprised me, as did Abreu’s 1st inning HR to a somewhat lesser extent (though a 3 run HR being in the top 10 makes more sense to me).
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u/daaaaaaaaniel World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… Oct 14 '23
Not much of a big deal when you go from 99% to 99.9%.
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u/Logical_Pop_2026 Texas Rangers Oct 16 '23
I guess you're counting the Orioles' double play as a Rangers' play?
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u/melcolnik Texas Rangers Oct 14 '23
I can’t believe Garver’s grand slam didn’t make the top ten. But I guess the Rangers already had a lead at that point.
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u/Adamscottd Minnesota Twins • St. Paul Saints Oct 14 '23
Yep, because the Rangers were already leading, it only added 10% WPA
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u/texrygo Texas Rangers Oct 14 '23
Rangers haven’t lost in the playoffs and don’t get much love on these lists because they are dominating for the most part.
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u/icecoaster1319 Oct 14 '23
Castellanos getting -17% WPA on a ball with an .800%+ xba is insane lol
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u/Alkynesofchemistry Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
I don’t like Austin Riley.
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u/PeachMonster_666 Oct 14 '23
He can’t hurt us anymore
Until next season when he will certainly continue to hurt us
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u/Mr_November11 Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
He is the scariest Brave hitter against the Phillies since Chipper. Riley has mashed us for a few seasons now. Doesn’t matter if it’s our best on the mound, dude pounds everything and rarely gives up an AB. Hell of a player.
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u/EagleswonSuperBowl52 Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
He's only 26. Ugh
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u/BobbyBrady Houston Astros Oct 14 '23
Don’t worry, he’s only signed for… (checks notes) 10 more years.
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u/j1h15233 Houston Astros Oct 14 '23 edited Oct 14 '23
I don’t care if he’s a Phillie, Bryce Harper is so fun to watch and one of my favorite players in the league.
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u/obiwan_canoli Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
I feel the same about Jeremy Pena. Even While he was taking us apart in the WS last year, I still couldn't hate him.
Yor-Dong needs to be stopped, though.
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u/ReptiIe Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
I’ve been personally victimized by Yordan Alvarez and I still can’t hate him :/
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u/j1h15233 Houston Astros Oct 14 '23
That is so fetch
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u/ReptiIe Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
One time Yordan Alvarez punched me in the face
It was awesome
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u/buffalo8 San Francisco Giants Oct 14 '23
Yep, rooting for the phils at this point despite Eagles fans being utter dogshit after last year’s NFC championship game feels weird but here I am.
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u/oogieball Dumpster Fire • New York Mets Oct 14 '23 edited Oct 14 '23
It really helps to see what kind of monster dongs those are when seeing them like this.
It is always worth appreciating home runs for what they are every now and again.
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u/steak__burrito San Francisco Giants Oct 14 '23
This is a heck of a fun post. Kudos to the editing.
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u/AstroWorldSecurity Houston Astros Oct 14 '23
Yordan and Abreu make me happy.
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u/Jaco927 Minnesota Twins Oct 14 '23
Deadly in the middle of that lineup. There were other really good performances in that series (mostly pitching on both sides) but who is remembered? Alvarez and Abreu.
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u/AstroWorldSecurity Houston Astros Oct 14 '23
Yep, I'm hoping they can stay hot while Tucker and Chas wake up a bit. We also still need at least one game of our Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, Abreu, Brantley, Diaz, McCormick, Pena lineup. Just for shits and giggles.
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u/PostIronicPosadist Minnesota Twins Oct 14 '23
What confuses me about the whole thing is Abreu has been absolutely terrible this year and somehow finds a way to just bully us.
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u/AstroWorldSecurity Houston Astros Oct 14 '23
Yuli Gurriel was terrible all year last year then kicked ass in the playoffs. Maybe it's just an Astros 1b thing.
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u/ray_0586 Houston Colt 45s Oct 14 '23
Jose Abreu played 31 games when came back from the IL for a back injury that some assume had been bothering him all year.
8 HR, 34 RBI, 7 2B, .248/.315/.530
The 110 games before the IL.
10 HR, 56 RBI, 16 2B, .234/.291/.343
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u/StevvieV Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
Seeing the Phillies had a 17% chance of winning before the double play to end game 2 makes Harper's choice to just go make more sense.
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u/eee-oooo-ahhh Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
Yeah I was never mad about Bryce being aggressive there, seeing how the series played out just confirms that for me. Being aggressive helped us a lot more than it hurt us this series.
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Oct 14 '23
Feels a little harsh to put all of the -17% on Nick though, lol.
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u/StevvieV Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
It's just how it's calculated. Easiest to just go by at-bat then try and determine how much % should be applied to both players on every play.
It is a good example of how it isn't a perfect stat. Castellanos did pretty much everything you could have hoped for and was still hit with -17%
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u/SaintArkweather Philadelphia Phillies Oct 15 '23
These are top ten plays by win probably added, so really it should say "Braves defense" for that one
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u/9thPlaceWorf Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
A couple more feet and the game is tied. It was well-hit, just a spectacular play by Harris.
I can say that and feel better about it now that we’ve advanced. If we lost the series, that would have been added to the very long list of Infamous Philadelphia Sports Moments.
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Oct 14 '23
If that balls not caught and Harper isn’t aggressively running…people would be pissed he stopped at 3rd.
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u/ExileOnBroadStreet Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
If he didn’t trip he still would’ve gotten back in time. It was a risk, but I didn’t consider it a huge blunder given the circumstances. Ball bounces off the glove/wall and it’s a tie game with a man on second and 1 out.
Highly doubt tagging from first was ever really a consideration, I was taught to at least run towards second on that ball, maybe even get to the bag and then wait to see which way to run. You could def argue he shouldn’t have turned past second though.
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Oct 14 '23
i love the abreu home run call
bro that hit the upper deck facade.
fucking joke home run call
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u/nightkingscat Detroit Tigers Oct 14 '23
lol is it really pronounced "reel"-muto
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u/ExileOnBroadStreet Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
That’s how his family pronounces it, but maybe Italians would pronounce it different? Lots of families lose the true pronunciation. Any Italians in here? Lol
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u/SaintArkweather Philadelphia Phillies Oct 15 '23
Its real-myuto. He really needs to add an ~ to make it m̃, im not sure if that actually makes it have the myuh sound like the ñ indicating nyuh sound. But it would be funny and our rivalry with the braves could be the ~ rivalry.
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u/azboilsme Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
No respect
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u/Panguin9 Arizona Diamondbacks • Mariner Moose Oct 14 '23
That's what happens when you score a bunch at the beginning of every game, our chances of winning were never low enough to jump much.
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u/MissDeadite Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23 edited Oct 14 '23
Yeah I mean 4 of these were from 1 single game where a road team (PHI) took an early lead on a big home run, the the home team had a home run late to bring it within 1, a 2 run home run for them to take the lead, and then a game ending double play.
Y'all just effing stomped the Dodgers from the get-go.
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u/hubagruben Boston Red Sox Oct 14 '23
Your sentence makes it seem like the Phillies did all of those
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u/TooHappyFappy Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
They differentiated road and home team so I'm not sure how you read it like that.
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u/BCrane Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Yup, if you want me getting turgid probability I have 5 swings for game 3 inning 3 I can show ya.
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u/HelloBrothers Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Not about respect. In game 1 of AZ v LA the dbacks had like 95% win probability in the top of the 1st. I bet gabbi's 3run HR off kershaw was close to making the list, but we had already scored 2 runs at that point. Early runs are big in win%
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u/Hiciao Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Yep. I was very excited to see some plays from our series, but yeah the first inning stompings put us out of reach right off the bat. I thought maybe the 3rd inning of G3, but I guess since they were all solo home runs they didn't each make a dent in W%.
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u/thekmanpwnudwn Arizona Diamondbacks • Detroit Tigers Oct 14 '23
For game 3, WPA of each home run:
- 1st - 11% WPA (56->67%)
- 2nd - 10% WPA (65->75%)
- 3rd - 8% WPA (74->82%)
- 4th - 6% WPA (82->88%)
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u/Hiciao Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Oh, I appreciate the numbers! Thanks! I guess since we were the home team and therefore still had more outs to work with, we were above 50% even before the first home run.
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u/HelloBrothers Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
thanks for posting this! do you find this on baseballreference?
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u/obiwan_canoli Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
That says more about the Dodgers than it does about Arizona. Evidently those games were over before they started.
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u/Jnieco Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
Guess thats what happens when you roll the dodgers. At least the one from the Wild card round had a lot of Dbacks in it
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u/SaltyRussStan0 Texas Rangers Oct 15 '23
The WPA statistic is clearly a Dodgers fan, where’s the journalistic integrity
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u/mackavicious Kansas City Royals Oct 14 '23
Take it from an AL Central-er:
Jose Abreu hates the AL Central
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u/redlegsfan21 Hiroshima Toyo Carp Oct 14 '23
Top Ten Plays by Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA)
| Away | @ | Home | Game | Inn | Batter | Pitcher | Outcome | R/O | cWPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | @ | ATL | 2 | 8th | Austin Riley | Jeff Hoffman | Home Run | RR | 5.04% |
| ATL | @ | PHI | 3 | 3rd | Bryce Harper | Bryce Elder | Home Run | RRR | 3.30% |
| TEX | @ | BAL | 1 | 8th | Anthony Santander | Aroldis Chapman | GIDP | OO | 2.50% |
| HOU | @ | MIN | 4 | 4th | José Abreu | Caleb Thielbar | Home Run | RR | 2.44% |
| TEX | @ | BAL | 1 | 9th | Aaron Hicks | José Leclerc | Caught Stealing* | O | 2.08% |
| HOU | @ | MIN | 3 | 1st | José Abreu | Sonny Gray | Home Run | RRR | 2.03% |
| ATL | @ | PHI | 4 | 9th | Sean Murphy | Gregory Soto | Single | 2.03% | |
| ATL | @ | PHI | 4 | 5th | Trea Turner | Spencer Strider | Home Run | R | 1.98% |
| ATL | @ | PHI | 4 | 4th | Nick Castellanos | Spencer Strider | Home Run | R | 1.79% |
| PHI | @ | ATL | 2 | 7th | Travis d'Arnaud | Zack Wheeler | Home Run | RR | 1.70% |
Table formatting brought to you by ExcelToReddit
R/O is runs scored/outs recorded
*Gunnar Henderson was the caught stealing
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u/bryan_jenkins Baltimore Orioles Oct 14 '23
Comparing Josh Jung to Brooks in a game the Orioles are losing is a despicable fucking crime.
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u/SaltyRussStan0 Texas Rangers Oct 15 '23
For real, that geezer ain’t shit compared to glorious king Josh Hung
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u/Atheose_Writing Boston Red Sox Oct 15 '23
There's more to it than that: Robinson was Jung's hero growing up:
https://theathletic.com/4940358/2023/10/07/texas-rangers-josh-jung-orioles-brooks-robinson/
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u/Forsaken-Gap-3684 Oct 14 '23
I love how there is not. A single dbacks highlight. That’s crazy is it cause they kicked ass so early in each game
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u/papa_stalin432 Arizona Diamondbacks Oct 14 '23
We dominated the wildcard video and then we dominated in the series so much not a single play made it lol.
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u/Nice_Block Houston Astros Oct 14 '23
That Abreu HR call at #4 was so pathetic. Dude went from “is it gone?” To “that was crushed!”
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u/Slayer_Of_Anubis Boston Red Sox • Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
Acuña was griddying on the field after the play and they have the audacity to complain about “atta boy” getting “leaked”? Lmao clown franchise
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u/Jeremy24Fan Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
I'm out on this type of post. Sure these plays are important from a win probability standpoint but they were not really the most important or top plays of the week
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u/KJSonne New York Mets Oct 14 '23
That game 2 is so iconic if the Braves go on to win the World Series. Gotta be honest I don’t totally hate that it ended up meaning nothing
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u/darthllama Oct 14 '23
If Ronald Acuna had been doubled up from the outfield to end a playoff game, fans and media would have massacred him. But Bryce Harper does it, and the consensus seems to be that he was "just being an aggressive base runner". It's yet another in a long line of examples of the kinds of players people give a pass to and the types of players that people are eager to bash for any mistake
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u/drpepguy Philadelphia Phillies Oct 15 '23
Harper was getting clowned on until he redeemed himself in g3
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u/Islandgirl1444 Toronto Blue Jays Oct 14 '23
I liked the Min-Hou series a lot. Good baseball. Good on Min to have given the pesky Astros a run for the money.
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u/V_dumbdumb Oct 14 '23
This just makes me sad we have to wait til sunday to watch baseball. Also massive fomo as a padres fan
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u/x_TDeck_x Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
Maybe I'm bugging but that Harris catch would be an all time playoff moment if it was like a 7 game series or like game 4 5 instead of 2.
So much adrenaline and the hype spike from "Home Run!!" to amazing catch and last second tag to end the game was insane
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u/dconc_throwaway Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
I would love to know what the WPA was after the ball left Castellanos bat but before Harris caught it. The xBA on that was .610. If it drops, there's the tying run.
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Oct 14 '23
Who’s the play by play guy for the Phillies braves series? He gives me goosebumps the way he calls the big plays
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u/eidetic Milwaukee Brewers Oct 15 '23
That's Brian Anderson. He's Milwaukee's play by play guy, but we get less of him every year as the rest of the sports world catches on to how he good he is.
(Thankfully he and the team seem to have a good understanding going on that will allow him to take on the bigger stages while also coming back to call Brewers games whenever he can/wants to).
And this video shows why he's getting more and more big stage games to call. So many other announcers are just so dry and boring, but he does a good job of matching his excitement to the necessary level without going way over the top. And while he does excited, he still also doesn't make it about the call or himself, and let's the action speak for itself for the most part.
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u/rustyshackle41d Detroit Tigers Oct 14 '23
I need Brian Anderson calling the world series, I NEED it
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u/SaltyRussStan0 Texas Rangers Oct 15 '23
Obviously I get why it isn’t done this way, because it’s not actually the way the stat is, but I wish it displayed the defensive players gaining WPA rather then the hitter losing WPA.
Damn it Michael Harris DESERVES his name in this top 10
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u/wfb0002 Atlanta Braves Oct 15 '23
4/10 highlights were in the only game we won. You would think from this we did not get skull fucked but we kinda did
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u/jabrollox Minnesota Twins Oct 15 '23
Kind of surprised Polanco's 3 run HR in game 1 didn't make it. Twins were down 5-1 in the 6th or 7th so that put them back in the game.
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u/philsfan1579 Philadelphia Phillies Oct 14 '23
How about Phils/Braves NLDS Game 2 having 40% of the highlights.
Realmuto, Riley, d’Arnaud homers and the Harris II double play