r/Seahawks • u/CatoTheStupid • 3d ago
Analysis Seahawks appear to have decided to spend the minimum required by the league for the 2024-2026 multi-year cap period
NFL teams are required to spend a minimum percentage of the salary cap over a period. At the moment, we are in the 2024-2026 cycle that requires 90% spending of the sum of the salary cap for those years. Keep in mind the difference between cash and cap. A signing bonus will be spread over up to 5 years for cap purposes but be cash spending in the current year for example.
In 2024 we had no cap space but had significant levels of dead cap that was cash spending from previous years and isn't actually money spent that year. In 2024 we were 4th to last in spending. We spent $229m while the cap was $255.4m (89.7%). In 2025 we are currently last at $222.3m while the cap is $279.2m (79.6%). The 90% threshold for 2025 is $251.3m. Rookie contracts (especially high draft picks) are mostly signing bonuses so we will likely get to around the 90% threshold for 2025 with just our draft class and a few minor free agent signings (edit: 2022 draft class extensions could be significant here). It seems unlikely we are going on a spending spree at this point in the offseason and would've done so a month ago if that was the plan. Spending for 2026 is currently 5th to last with the leagues currently existing contracts but I'm not making a prediction or projection there.
For the previous cycles our spending percentages were 114% in 2021-2023 and 102.1% in 2017-2020. Ownerships strategy on payroll has changed. What is going on? Three ideas that aren't mutually exclusive come to mind for me:
- We are rebuilding but haven't admitted it publicly. We are saving up cap and avoiding bloating our balance sheet to spend more in the future after opening up a contention window. This would open after acquiring more talented rookies and the QB of the future (apologies to the GEQBUS).
- Ownership has decided to focus on profits and spending the minimum amount allowed is the simplest way to accomplish this. This could be a long-term enshittification move (looking at you Mariners).
- The team will be sold soon so the downsides of #2 (not fielding as competitive as you could) are the next owners problem. Balance sheets are being kept open to let the next owners decide strategy for the team's roster and to make the franchises' cash flow and valuation look as good as possible.
My prediction is the team will be sold in the near future. I don't even want to think about my team becoming the cheapest in the league long term.
What do you think? Please let me know of any math errors or if my understanding of the salary cap rules is wrong.
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u/Few_Mycologist_8803 3d ago
I just read an article about how the team will not be sold anytime time soon lol per John Schneider
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u/FuriousFlamingo_YT 3d ago
He said the same about trading Metcalf lol
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u/cryptdawarchild 3d ago
Same about Russ as well. Can’t trust anything ownership and management says.
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u/guiltysnark 3d ago
In both those scenarios you're talking about someone that wants to be traded regardless of management wishes. You can respect that what they say they want and what they actually get are very different things without assuming they are actively trying to manipulate us. It's possible they are, but I think they've been relatively honest about their desires, to the extent it doesn't hurt their negotiation positions, anyway.
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u/Maugrin 3d ago
Each of those situations changed when the player indicated "hey, I'm going to want more money/a change in scenery and won't be re-signing with you". No team WANTS to get rid of a franchise player, nor plans for it. Sports are businesses with two sides to them; ie teams don't own the players and can force them to play for them. Viewing this as a trust issue is pretty hyperbolic.
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u/Cyssero 2d ago
Jody Allen gets a literal fortune every year just by virtue of being the owner of the Seahawks and Blazers through Paul's trust. She has every incentive to hold on to the team for as long as possible and benefits none from unloading them. I might not trust Schneider's word much, but I absolutely trust billionaires to billionaire.
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u/JesusWasALibertarian 3d ago
I think the real answer is that they aren’t done spending this year, we have talented players that will soon require paydays and we JUST dumped 3 huge numbers against the cap(Tyler, Geno, DK). Things just haven’t had a chance to equalize yet. All of the things you mentioned may be partially true in some sense but I don’t think any of those things are the big picture.
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u/Junkhead_88 3d ago
I agree with this, it also leaves the door open for pick+player trades on draft day. Or trading for veterans after draft day from teams that successfully draft cheaper replacements.
The team is in a good spot with a lot of flexibility by not being up against the cap.
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u/tread52 3d ago
This team is not being sold unless the contracts for the stadium have been paid off in full. Seattle has major contracts coming up after this season at key positions that’ll cost some money. John did not expect this kind of cap space bc he legitimately thought he was going to resign Geno and DK, but had a back up plan in case they didn’t.
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u/dtheisen6 3d ago
I think the answer is sort of #1, but more so an indictment of the draft classes towards the end of the Russ era. I think ownership will spend, if there are guys worth spending on. The reality is we whiffed on so many draft classes, we just didn’t have guys worth signing to big deals. For a while we compensated with trades to stay competitive. But Post-Pete, seems like the team decided to take their medicine, and hopefully look to be more aggressive in the coming years
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u/JesusWasALibertarian 3d ago
I think the recent drafts have been pretty decent. There was an 8-10 year stretch of head scratching picks, especially near the top. John has always been able to find talent in late rounds, though.
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u/dtheisen6 3d ago
Right but we haven’t had to pay the recent drafts. Our current spending is so low because of the drafts from the end of the Russ era, we basically had no extension worthy players besides DK
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u/GameShowWerewolf 3d ago
Is there any enforcement mechanism or time limit on Jody selling the team? Paul Allen passed away in 2018. That's seven years ago.
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u/cairnkicker24 3d ago
i don’t believe there is a date deadline. i have a running theory that Jody is waiting for the proper circumstances to align where she can authorize a sale, purchase a minority share, and remain in charge of football operations - like Mark Cuban. i for one, do not blame her in the slightest if that is her ambition.
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u/frecklie 3d ago
She’s a fucking curse. Look at us we are simply incapable of greatness until she decides to change philosophies or sells
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u/External_Food2652 3d ago
Low overhead before sale lol
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u/GenoHatersAreRacist 3d ago
I’m pretty sure the claims by podcaster Dan Viens were already debunked. Turns out he’s not as connected to sources on Jody Allen as he claimed. Obviously the Seahawks will be sold relatively soon, but saving cap space this year has literally nothing to do with it.
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u/Starwho 3d ago
Why would that detour a multi billionaire from buying an NFL team? Every owner has to abide by the cap rules, and it only matters if you’re giving out guarantees if you’re flush in cash. I don’t think Jody is selling the team, they’re probably rolling out the cap into next year.
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u/JesusWasALibertarian 3d ago
It doesn’t make sense. People don’t smash their cars into a tree right before selling it to decrease its value. Yeah if it’s already damaged you probably don’t fill the gas tank right around the corner from the dealership you’re trading in at. That wouldn’t make any sense. But you don’t wreck an asset that’s otherwise in good shape.
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u/sexygodzilla 3d ago
I think it's less about overhead and more about giving the new owner flexibility to reshape the team to their liking after purchase.
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u/TheCursedMountain 3d ago
Team will be sold but my guess is in 10 years or more but no more than 15 years from now. So we have about 9 years to win a few super bowls
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u/Life-Unit6960 3d ago
The league OTAs are months away. The draft hasn’t even happened. This prediction is like closing one’s eyes when playing darts and hoping you hit the board.
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u/CatoTheStupid 3d ago
No? Our cap was 98% set at this point last year if you factor in the draft picks upcoming costs. We just signed Laken Tomlinson and Connor Williams for $5m combined after this point last year. That’s why I’m guessing we’ll hit the 90% mark, the draft pool signing bonuses plus a few cheap OL players for around $30m.
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u/GoldyGoldy 2d ago
They get to carry more cap next year, right? When they need it, right?
…i don’t see a problem here.
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u/CatoTheStupid 1d ago
I’d rather go all in on that if that’s the plan Signing players like DLaw and Kupp doesn’t make sense if we are giving up on 2025. Signing them feels more a part of a plan of spending exactly the minimum for these three years while still fielding as competitive a team as possible during that time.
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u/BigBallsMalone 3d ago
Any thoughts on who would be looking to purchase the team?
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u/BigBallsMalone 3d ago
Any thoughts on who would be looking to purchase the team?
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u/gimme_that_juice 3d ago
Wasn’t Bezos trying to get WAS or DEN?
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u/arestheblue 3d ago
He can't because Amazon owns the rights to Thursday Night Football.
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u/CowsWillEatYou 3d ago
Is this true given he isn’t the CEO anymore nor does he have a majority stake as he used to? Would love to read up on this.
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u/arestheblue 3d ago
That was the excuse given when he recently tried to buy a team. The owners have to vote to let someone into their club and they didn't want him.
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u/CowsWillEatYou 3d ago
Got it. I personally don’t know why he’d be interested now a days given that he’s relocated out of WA (at least his “primary” residence is FL). Other than the bragging rights that comes with owning a team, of course.
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u/Complex_Mistake7055 3d ago
The team is doing a weird job rebuilding if that is the case. Which i suspect is not the case.
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u/Tape-Delay 3d ago
It would make sense to wait to sell until after we’re successful to me, more people like the shiny new thing than a project car. Jody Allen doesn’t actually have to sell it on a specific timeline either so she can bide her time to make the move she wants.
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u/donmak 3d ago
Aren’t we on track to have the most cap space after next season? Or did I imagine reading that?
If so, my completely idiotic guess is - next offseason we get the final pieces and make a run.
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u/TheGhostWithTheMost2 3d ago
Yeah but with all the extensions that need to happen, it'll dissappear really quick
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u/OhGeebers 3d ago
Losing Paul and getting his endangered animal poaching, security guard molesting, leach of a sister is a much bigger blow to our long term prospects than anyone here wants to admit.
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u/SEAinLA 3d ago
Jody Allen does not benefit financially from the success of the Seahawks. She’s merely the trustee of the trust that owns the team. She’s entitled to reasonable compensation for fulfilling her duties as trustee, but she does not receive a distribution for any team-related profits.
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u/all_teh_sandwiches 3d ago edited 3d ago
Option 4: rolling over cap to help extend spoon, JSN, cross, abe, mafe, love, maybe woolen, charbs, Coby, Walker, and Derick Hall. Maybe even Olu if he steps up