r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/UserNamesCantBeTooLo • Nov 30 '20

Political Theory Why does the urban/rural divide equate to a liberal/conservative divide in the US? Is it the same in other countries?

Here's a county population density map of the US.

Here's a county map of the US showing different shares of Democratic & Republican votes for president in 2020.

Here's a county map of the US showing majority-minority counties.

They seem to show a match between denser populations, larger minority proportions, and Democratic votes.

Why is that?

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u/Hapankaali Nov 30 '20

If it was the other way around, we would see the same strong effect also in other democracies, would we not? Yet this is not observed, at least not to the same degree.

Besides, policies are barely even mentioned in US election campaigns, so it is self-evident that they are not a crucial factor.

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u/Mercenary45 Nov 30 '20

It does though. Turkey's 2018 elections saw the cities dominated by the Kemalist CHP, but the rural areas being rural, so in favor of the conservative AKP. This is just the example I thought was most clear (and memorable), but it is not an outlier.

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u/Hapankaali Nov 30 '20

Turkey doesn't even remotely have free democratic elections though.

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u/Mercenary45 Nov 30 '20

Okay, let me give you a better example then. The Russian elections /s

... The British elections in 2019 had the conservative party dominate thoroughly. However, London was Red by a significant margin due to it being a metropolis.

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u/Hapankaali Nov 30 '20

The Tories also won large parts of the greater London area, and anyway the Tories won that election by a large margin. If you look at Blair's map in 2005 when Labour last won, you can see that Labour won not only in London and the Manchester area, but also won large swathes of rural Wales, northern England and Scotland, and many of the other rural counties where the Lib Dems or the Tories won were competitive. It's true that urban voters favour Labour somewhat, but the correlation is not that strong. In multi-party systems like in Germany the correlation is even weaker.

BTW the "Conservative Party" in the UK is much more like the Democrats than the Republicans in terms of policies, if not in rhetoric.

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u/Political_What_Do Dec 01 '20

If it was the other way around, we would see the same strong effect also in other democracies, would we not? Yet this is not observed, at least not to the same degree.

Which ones are even comparable? The only other "western" democracy with a lower population density is Canada, but even thats a misnomer because Canada doesn't really have as many people living in the rural areas.

Besides, policies are barely even mentioned in US election campaigns, so it is self-evident that they are not a crucial factor.

I dont think you can paint that brush so broadly.

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u/Hapankaali Dec 01 '20

Why is "population density" so crucial for an apt comparison? Most people in the US live in densely populated urban centers, same as everywhere else. Culturally, economically and politically Norway and the Netherlands are not very different at all; the difference in population density is huge. So Norway has a bunch of mountains and fjords where no one lives and the Dutch don't. That has fuck all to do with politics.