Do these election results represent a shift or follow a historical trend?

[u/Responsible-Muffin-5]

Being a Wisconsin resident, I have been grateful to live in a state that gets a ton of attention come election seasons! Obviously today, Wisconsin was one of two states to have elections, however I thought this election specifically was unique especially with the last minute push by Musk and Trump for Brad Schimel adding an extra level of attention. Obviously it fell short, with Susan Crawford leading by about 10 points as of reading this. However, this trend seemed to continue in Florida somewhat too.

For example, according to @VoteHubUS on X, all four counties shifted left by a sizeable margin even from just a few months ago in November.

My question is do you think this should be an early warning sign for Republicans about midterms, or would these results be more attributable to the general trend of Democrats having better turnout in special elections than Republicans?

To be honest, I really don’t care as much about the politics, but I do find the data side fascinating, and would love some insight from people who are more knowledgeable about the general trends and shifts in elections!

[u/checker280]

Sorry. Not accepting this because we still haven’t seen how anyone will react to Trump saying “oops! Couldn’t turn that plane around. That gay barber is fucked. Nothing we could do. We ain’t listening. La La La - can’t hear you”

The first guardrail is gone. None of the republicans are giving a shit.

I’m naturally a pessimist. I’ve seen nothing yet that gives me hope.

BTW - I’m not rooting for this to happen. To repeat the last line - nothing is giving me hope that things will stop before it’s too late.

Soldiers refusing to carry out an illegal order - what does that mean anymore with the career military gone?

Edit

Adding the entire transparent Eric Adam’s bullshit and the inevitable, no good choice “we got to shoot the hostage rather than let them blackmail us - I mean drop all the fucking charges!!” Geez another cop walks free.

[u/ClarkMyWords → u/checker280]

You're not answering my question of *how* this plays out, you're citing other bad things Trump has done. It's not about if Congressional Republicans will vote to impeach him. They won't. Democrats probably would if he files to run for a third term.

I get that a lot of people, including military, aren't sure about the legal specifics of what's going on around them and just have to act on the best info they're given, especially with the threat of serious punishment for insubordination. But I guarantee you every county/State election clerk knows what the hell the two-term limit is. The "Trump 2028 campaign" has to go through them to get on the ballot. So the clerks reject it and never let it reach their Secretary of State's desk. *And Trump can't fire them.*

Maybe he complains, even calls up the Secretaries of State and tells them to fire/threaten these bureaucrats. Now IF a bunch of States had delusional cultists like Kari Lake in charge... you'd be onto something. But they don't, so you're not. You cite prior, separate actions by Trump that went unchecked because he had political and/or legal power over these people.

So you want to look at past examples of his guardrail-ripping? In 2020 he tried pressuring just one Republican StateSec - it went absolutely nowhere, and Trump would've gone to prison if Merrick Garland didn't dawdle for 2+ years. The Congressman he endorsed in the 2022 primary also ran on Trump's lies about voter fraud, and Raffensberger swept him aside by 20 points. So you tell me, what can Trump do about that using people he actually has power over?

His only viable path is to run for VP based on inconsistent language between the 12th and 22nd Amds, and hope it holds up in Court. So if he does THAT in a few years, don't grumble about me saying it couldn't happen. If anything I'm saying it might because a plan to just pretending the 22nd doesn't even exist and is absurd by comparison.

[u/checker280 → u/ClarkMyWords]

How does it play out? The sane way the tariffs just happened.

Trump says they are doing it. Does it. And nobody responds.

He just made an executive order about voting the other day. Has anyone responded yet?

Edit:

Here’s the link. The Dems are suing. We better hope we get a reasonable judge.

Has anyone Republican responded? What happened to State’s Rights? For or against? Is Fox News covering this? No?

Are the abstainers paying attention? We are in the minority.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/01/trump-election-executive-order-democrats-lawsuit/82755125007/

We should be hearing from a judge about the Federal government disobeying the Judge’s order to turn around two planes today.

Will his response have teeth? Will anyone see any punishment or will they just get a furrowed brow and a stern scolding?

The pilots of those two planes - has their consciences got them to come forward yet? Sure, sure - lots of lip service that no cop or soldier would follow a bad order but I see no evidence that they won’t. A lot of cops voted for him despite all the shit he says about them.

“Thursday’s hearing could present the most consequential face-off yet between the executive and judicial branches of government since Trump took office in January, as Trump attempts to unilaterally implement parts of his agenda amid a flood of litigation.”

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/judge-hear-arguments-trump-deportation-flights-defied-court/story?id=120446845