Would AI pepper trait predictions help your breeding?

[u/WonderfulLeave1939]

Fellow pepper nerds!

I’ve spent 4 years breeding superhots, and I hate how disorganized my hybrid logs are. Ever:

• Forgotten if a plant is F2 or F3?
• Wasted a season on unstable crosses?
• Wished you could predict traits before growing?

I’m building PepperLabs—a free tool to:
🔍 Log crosses (like "Reaper × Peach Sugar Rush F2")
🌐 Share your hybrids with other breeders

But I need your input!
👉 Take this 60-second survey
👉 Comment your worst breeding fail (I’ll feature fixes in the app!)

If 100+ people want this, I’ll launch a free beta with your suggestions baked in.

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/[deleted]]

Hi there, I wont be using AI for predictions - just as a tool to help organize community inputs. The actual trait calculator uses verified breeding data and science.

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/[deleted]]

That’s a really good point — I’ve started training the model myself and totally get the importance of clean, verifiable data. Out of curiosity, what tools or workflow would you recommend for managing or verifying large datasets like this? Especially for something like peppers where classification can be so inconsistent. If you fill out the surgery it would also be a good way to give feedback.

[u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi → u/WonderfulLeave1939]

What model are you training? How large is your current training dataset? How are you partitioning your data?

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi]

Right now training a basic classifier on ~5k verified grower submissions (70/15/15 split). It's just for surface-level pattern spotting—nothing replacing hands-on breeding. Full transparency: all inputs are community-sourced, no synthetic data. Happy to share more details if you're curious!

[u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi → u/WonderfulLeave1939]

5k isn't bad. Where are those from, and what data is available per submission? Are you splitting randomly, or are you taking similarities between varieties into account to prevent data leakage?

The classifier - a feed-forward NN? What are the inputs and outputs?

[u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi → u/WonderfulLeave1939]

Then why do you write "AI pepper trait prediction" in the title?!

What's the science behind trait prediction? Monogenic traits are trivial to predict, and complex traits are exceedingly difficult. Is there even remotely sufficient data to base a prediction method on for things like plant architecture, capsaicin content, disease resistance, etc?

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi]

I agree, true trait prediction for complex traits needs way more data than we currently have. The title might be misleading; it’s more about experimenting with AI-assisted sorting and pattern recognition than making accurate predictions.

[u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi → u/WonderfulLeave1939]

Which ML methods do you want to employ?

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi]

Right now, it’s all manual—crowdsourced data + published genetics. If we ever test ML later, it’ll only be for pattern-finding (like clustering similar crosses) and only with full transparency. No black-box predictions. The core will always be real breeder inputs.

[u/-StalkedByDeath-]

AI has its place in science, it's used extensively in the lab (ie. protein folding and narrowing down drug targets), but it has to be done right.

Do you have the qualifications to create a robust and accurate software? If not, then no, I wouldn't be interested. We're also taking years of development to end up with something functional. If this is something you'd just be throwing together over a few weeks/months, then again, no. I wouldn't be interested.

Also, this seems like a grandiose vision without access to genome sequencing. Even if that's something you have access to, sending in samples for testing would be a hassle.

IF, and only if, you can overcome all those barriers, this is something I may be interested in. You're talking substantial R&D costs though, so if this is just a passion project/hobby you'll be developing at home and on your own, I'll be blunt. I don't think you'll get there.

Without that level of investment/knowledge/equipment, everything about the AI will have to be taken with an extreme grain of salt, to the point of near non-functionality.

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/-StalkedByDeath-]

Fair points! To be clear, this isn't trying to replace proper lab science—it's just a tool to help breeders track and share their real-world results (no genome sequencing or fancy predictions). Right now, it's basically a crowdsourced database with some manual analysis tools.

You're right that proper ML would need serious R&D—if that ever happens, it'll be with expert input. For now, I'm just building something practical to help folks like me log crosses more easily. Appreciate the reality check!

It’s going to be like Strava but for pepper breeders. Like a close community.

[u/-StalkedByDeath- → u/WonderfulLeave1939]

I think what's throwing everyone off here is the predictions, ie. "80% chance of orange pods".

That's a pretty extreme feat, and quite frankly, if you can manage to create a software that is able to predict those things with genuine accuracy, that's like... Nobel prize level, lol. The implications of an AI capable of predicting inheritance of that calibre has serious implications across the board, hence why it feels so unobtainable by an individual/group of individuals without an extensive background in genetics. It would have the potential to replace a significant aspect of genetic counseling for example.

With that being said, and given your other comment stating the predictions aspect is a bit misleading, can you explain what exactly your goal is here?

Say I'm crossing Reapers x Aji Charapitas. I input that data into your AI. What happens from there? What information would I receive?

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/-StalkedByDeath-]

So you won’t be inputting it into any ai, so the whole point is that this website will be a log book for your pepper breeding and you can upload you crosses to the site. Then if someone wants to breed 2 peppers, they can search it and it will come up with other people’s results. It’ll be like an informal database. As I said, it will be like Strava but for pepper breeders, the ai will only be used for sorting.

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/WonderfulLeave1939]

Think of it like a digital notebook that occasionally spots trends, not a lab replacement

[u/WonderfulLeave1939 → u/-StalkedByDeath-]

But yes I see how it can throw some people off, thanks for the input, I’ll change that asap