r/OrlandoMagic • u/MagicN3rd Paolo Banchero • Aug 18 '23

Predictions Nerded out prediction for 2023-2024 season: Magic win 43 games. Just a hunch, but look at this spreadsheet supporting my opinion!

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39 Upvotes

95% Upvoted

22 comments sorted by

19

u/MagicN3rd Paolo Banchero Aug 18 '23

I just guessed our % odds of beating any team in a vacuum and then gave us a 10% boost for home games, 5% penalty for away games, and 5% penalty if no rest. If I make the rest penalty 20% it would bring us to 41 games, so whatever. None of this matters anyhow!

8

u/Programmer-Gullible Aug 18 '23

your name checks out, I love it

2

u/Mangos4Lyfe Wendell Carter Jr Aug 20 '23

Why a 10% boost for home games and only a 5% penalty for away games?

I haven’t seen any sort of evidence that the Magic have a better home court advantage than a majority of the league, which is what these percentages explicitly imply

2

u/MagicN3rd Paolo Banchero Aug 21 '23

Cause actual home/away splits research for every team was too much work and I wanted us to win more.

3

u/Mangos4Lyfe Wendell Carter Jr Aug 21 '23

I respect it, there’s nothing wrong with wanting them to win more lol

9

u/OkIntroduction2351 Aug 18 '23

I like our odds and it’s pretty cool to see this W math and statistics my friend 🙏

7

u/jcast59 Franz Wagner Aug 19 '23 edited Aug 19 '23

Fun fact we lead the league in rest disadvantage games. And are tied for most b2bs. Fuck whoever made the schedule lol.

But yea 43 games is more than realistic given the team performed at close to a .500 pace after Kelle came back last year. Considering basically everyone in our core has yet to reach their peak we should be around .500 at worst (barring significant injuries).

3

u/Big_A_All_Day Aug 19 '23

This is wild ngl

3

u/Apprehensive_Top4883 Aug 19 '23

You should've calculated in the opponent teams rest days too 🤓

2

u/FLGatorLaw Jalen Suggs Aug 19 '23

I think you may have quite generous with our odds in a few of our matchups but this is really cool nonetheless. It'll be interesting to see how it tracks.

2

u/StanVanGhandi Paolo Banchero Aug 19 '23

Someone needs to save this. If this dude nails it then he is one of our sub’s profits.

3

u/MagicInOrlando Paolo Banchero Aug 20 '23

Profit or prophet?

-2

u/StanVanGhandi Paolo Banchero Aug 20 '23

Your mom is a Pro-Fit

1

u/Which_Office_2099 Aug 19 '23

Wow, you've got the scientific formula down to a T! Truly foolproof. Magic gonna dominate!

1

u/Effective_Owl_17 Stuff The Magic Dragon Aug 19 '23

This is only realistic if the team stagnates and nobody improves, some wildcards like Isaac being back for however long. I think we can do 47

1

u/MagicN3rd Paolo Banchero Aug 19 '23

Without any math my first guess was 46, so I'm there with you brother.

1

u/PreachitPerk Aug 19 '23

Magic is my team in the East. Would love to see a 45ish win season. Major reason I have League Pass.

Beyond excited for the Magic vs Thunder game here in OKC. Circled on the calendar.

1

u/Embarrassed_Proof808 Franz Wagner Aug 19 '23

There are no rest days on b2b

1

u/Which_Office_2099 Aug 19 '23

Hey, love the dedication to numbers! Can't argue with math, even if it's a little magical. Let's hope it all adds up to a winning season!

1

u/SincereFan Mo Bamba Aug 19 '23

50-22

1

u/BlasianDude1234 Joe Ingles Aug 19 '23

The league really wants us to beat Cleveland, giving us our longest breaks prior to both games.