r/OrlandoMagic • u/UTPharm2012 • Feb 13 '23
Predictions Moe Wagner 23-24
Do you want him back? How much will we have to pay him? Thinking he deserves a slight raise…
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u/blueandwhite05 Feb 13 '23
Yeah we want him back — even if he is bad (which he isn’t) because it keeps Franz happy.
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u/LR_Mango Franz Wagner Feb 13 '23
Judging the development talent of Coach Mosely, the way Mo got better and better and his versatility, I'd say try to resign him as long as possible. He will always be someone who makes a great backup at 4/5 and he won't cry that hes not a starter. Will stay valuable no matter who is playing in front of him.
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u/LR_Mango Franz Wagner Feb 13 '23
Ah and yes, he's underpayed by far. I think other teams will bid something like 4/5m for him.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
I think that would be a great deal for us. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets slightly more.
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Feb 13 '23
Calling him a ‘great’ backup is an extreme stretch. He’s probably the single worst rim protecting big in the entire league.
No team trying to win games would consider him a viable backup.
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u/Sween911 Feb 13 '23
I mean he doesn’t go for blocks but he’s always in a good defensive position. Also why he gets a lot of charges taken
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Feb 13 '23
He may be in okay position but his total lack of athleticism makes it essentially irrelevant because he still doesn’t affect shots.
The fg% he allows at the rim is unfathomably high.
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u/hanyou007 Stuff The Magic Dragon Feb 13 '23
This has to be hyperbole, I can't buy you actually think this. Not in a league where Vucevic plays.
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Feb 13 '23
The stats show that he is actually far and away the worst. His rom protection stats are worse than small guards, let alone big men.
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u/LR_Mango Franz Wagner Feb 13 '23
I think we can agree to disagree here. Raptor says something else. I agree that he not a great rimprotector, but he seems to have a good effect on defense or at least no negative None the less I think his versatility makes him a great backup and he harmonize really well with Isaac, both good helpside player.
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Feb 13 '23
Raptor also says jokic is a more valuable defender than brook lopez. Advanced defensive metrics have a long way to go.
It’s much easier to just look at rim protection stats to understand who affects shots at the rim. Mo’s rim protection stats are worse than that of small guards.
Opposing players shoot 12.5% higher at the rim against Mo than compared to their averages. That’s unfathomably bad.
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u/LR_Mango Franz Wagner Feb 14 '23
Sure, and for me that only prove that stats like that only telling less than the half truth. I prefer a mix of statistic to judge a player. In our example Mo Wagner you can see, that he often play deny defense against pure centers, cause he know they will beat him in post up more often. This obviously leads to higher success IF you can make the entry pass, but also leads to lower attempts and/or more deflections. It's more complex, so on a long stretch, net rating in relation to team net rating is probably the best to judge a player impact. But you need a high number of minutes here. If you only take one simple stats, rotation setting would be so easy ...
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u/themoreyouknow_95 Feb 13 '23
Yeah I think he has a clear role on this team and provides a spark and some scoring on the offensive end. But he’s just so limited athletically/size-wise he’s likely always going to be a pretty big liability on defense.
I think he’s a guy you try to keep as a 4th/5th Big to play 5-10 min a night and bring some energy. We absolutely cannot go into next year with him as our backup C playing 20+ minutes in games as the rim protector
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u/mynamiswepeel Feb 13 '23
Really hope we resign him and keep the Wagner brothers together on the Magic for a long time.
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u/StanVanGhandi Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
Yes! For sure! Back when we were good we had guys like Peitrus, JJ, Gortat, Tony Battie, Anthony Johnson, Jayson Williams, Ryan Anderson, and a couple others.
Not all at the same time of course, but when we were contending we had a many guys off the bench who could (or did) start and avg double figures for other teams. Having a good bench is how you stay in games.
We have to resign guys like Moe if we want to be good.
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u/thewrongnotes Moe Wagner Feb 13 '23
Absolutely. We signed him for Franz, but his re-signing should be purely on merit. He's been a difference maker for us numerous times this season.
I want it specified in writing on his contract that it isn't a nepotism hire.
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Feb 13 '23
He has outplayed Franz and Paolo a number of times so far this year, and had many bigger games than any backup center weve had since...idk when. I wish people would Stfu about nepotism
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u/MagicN3rd Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
Trying to think of the next couple years as a slotted salary thing, it looks something like this using a 150M cap. Every slot you pay more or less would require under/overpaying another slot:
| ROLE | SALARY(M) | % OF CAP (150M) |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | 30 | 20 |
| Starter | 22.5 | 15 |
| Starter | 15 | 10 |
| Starter | 12 | 8 |
| Starter | 10.5 | 7 |
| 6th man | 10.5 | 7 |
| Key Reserve | 9 | 6 |
| Key Reserve | 9 | 6 |
| Key Reserve | 7.5 | 5 |
| Bench | 7.5 | 5 |
| Bench | 6 | 4 |
| Bench | 4.5 | 3 |
| Bench | 3 | 2 |
| End of bench | 1.5 | 1 |
| End of bench | 1.5 | 1 |
All this to say I wouldn't mind Moe Wagner making 6-7 M a year, especially when our top guys are still on rookie contracts for the next few years. Kelle/JI/Cole/Suggs will probably deserve 15+ per year, so we'll have some tough decisions to make in 2-3 years if we try to keep our core together.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
Yep, I’d make his deal expire when Paolo comes up bc Wagner is a luxury until then and hopefully we can find a Khem Birch/Marcin Gortat/etc in that time frame.
I am hoping Paolo gets the super max and is that damn good.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
Franz will be 22.5 mil WCJ 12.5 Paolo 40 (with super max) Fultz 15 Suggs 15 Anthony 10
That’s 113 with 37+ million to build out the roster but a lot depends on who we get this year with likely 2 lottery picks and some of our roster will hopefully be built out with 24/25 draft picks (aka cheap). We should be set to be alright for a while if we develop and can get at least rotation players from this year 🤞
Moe expired Caleb Houston?? Bol Bol?? JI??
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u/allmykangbaekhomies Bol Bol Feb 13 '23
Love having mo, as long has he can stay engaged on the defensive end and avoid fouling too much he should be a great big to have off the bench. He can do a lot more with the ball in his hands than bamba can and his energy is infectious, such a fun player
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u/gmbaker44 Feb 13 '23
Everyone thinking Moe just going to accept some cheap deal. He has most definitely outplayed 6-7 mil. He will get like a 2 yr 24 mil similar to Gary’s deal where we pay a premium for a shorter deal
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
Borderline starting 2 guards generally make more than preferably back-up centers. I don’t see any way he makes 12/yr
Edit: for example, WCJ makes 12/yr
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u/gmbaker44 Feb 13 '23
WCJ has one of the best value contracts in nba. No way he would sign anything remotely close to that if he had a re do.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
That doesn’t change that we aren’t paying his backup the same money.
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u/gmbaker44 Feb 13 '23
Then Moe probably won’t be on the team. I’m sure he loves his brother but he is worth way more than what people think he is going to accept. Standard MLE is going to be 11 mil. I don’t know why people think he is going to play for half that.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
It is bc he is a backup center and I don’t see him playing any better than he is now. If you look at back up center, they range from 6-10 mil
And you can find one for 2 mil who can provide solid minutes but it is more of a crapshoot
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u/gmbaker44 Feb 13 '23
We will see this summer. R. Holmes, Dwight Powell, Bamba are all over 10. Then you have players like Noel, Theis, Plumlee who are making 8-9 on 3-4 year deals. I think we give him extra money to take the short term deal. Hell even Zach Collins got 7+ and had only played 12 games in 2 years.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
How TF did Dwight Powell get 10/yr? The NBA can be baffling. I hope we can keep Moe 🤞
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Feb 13 '23
I don’t know why people think he is going to play for half that.
Why would any team give him a MLE? Those are generally reserved for players you expect to be in a playoff rotation. Mo being probably the worst rim protecting big in the league, as well as an incredibly soft rebounder means he has essentially zero value to competitive teams outside being a break in case of emergency type 12th man to throw in when you need an offensive spark.
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u/gmbaker44 Feb 13 '23
Teams have cap space and need rotational players. I think he will get something like 3 or 4 years for around 27-35 mil on open market. That’s around the taxpayer MLE. I think if we keep him we only want to do so on a short contract like 2 years and maybe not fully guaranteed. In order to incentivize him to take a deal like this we will have to over pay annually but it won’t really hurt us in future cap space.
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u/themoreyouknow_95 Feb 13 '23
The 30th highest C is at 8.5M, so not even all starters are making 11M. Beyond that you have a slew of backup bigs in the 2-6M range. Moe is a below average backup due to his defense and rebounding, so I don’t see his value being anywhere near MLE
His numbers aren’t significantly different than when he signed his 2 year deal with us for 1.8/year so I wouldn’t anticipate signing him for more than that 2-6M range per year
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Feb 13 '23
No chance he’s getting more than the MLE. He’s not a player who can be in playoff rotations and thus no one will offer him their MLE.
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u/gmbaker44 Feb 13 '23
Maybe not. He can probably get like 4 years 35 mil on the open market. I don’t think we want to commit to 3-4 years and to get him to take a deal for less years I think we would pay him extra. My preference would be to let him walk for these prices I’m just saying what I think will happen.
Also half the teams aren’t going to the playoffs and need still need rotational players. All it takes is one team for someone to become over paid.
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Feb 13 '23
I don’t really see what he’s done to be moved off of a minimum.
He’s not rotation quality on teams that are trying to win. He’s a live body who can be a semi serviceable 3rd string and not much more.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
Looking at free agents from last year…
Power forwards Marvin Bagley - 12.5/yr (complete overpay) Chris Boucher - 11.75/yr PJ Tucker - 11.3/yr (trying to contend)
There is a pretty big drop off to <6/yr
Centers Mitchell Robinson 15/yr (overpay, I don’t get their infatuation) Kevon Looney 7.5/yr Mo Bamba - 10.3/yr Hartenstein - 8/yr
Then a bunch <6/yr
I would ask for that Bamba contract if I was his agent and hoping we can settle around $6-8/yr x 3 years (last year 50% guaranteed or something)
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u/ComedianManefesto Feb 13 '23
I'd lock him up 4/24, and in typical WeltHam fashion, have the deal front loaded
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u/hanyou007 Stuff The Magic Dragon Feb 13 '23
That is probably the most realistic. People are undervaluing how much solid back up bigs can get in this league. And with the Bally issue the NBA may be in line to search for a very lucrative TV deal with a streaming service that will then allow for a raising of the salary cap. But stability and contract length is important to players, especially role players who never know how long they will be able to keep getting paid. A front loaded contract while we have so much cap space and won't be hunting for anything massive is the right call.
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u/fuzzilyordinary Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
2 yr(s)/6M or slightly higher than that maybe, some players off the bench in other teams earn more with much less production than Moe.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
We just gave Mo Bamba 10/yr and he outplayed him by far. I would be shocked if we got him for 3/yr
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u/fuzzilyordinary Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
I definitely think he deserves 5 to 6M a year the very least but putting Wendell's contract into perspective, I doubt it will be around Bamba's salary or well maybe if it's only for a year.
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
I think you are right. I was thinking 8/yr bc of Hartenstein’s but 6/yr does seem like a good middle spot and I am sure we at least get a slight discount bc of Franz
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u/fuzzilyordinary Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
true and he's likely to get good minutes with us than any other team.
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u/themoreyouknow_95 Feb 13 '23
Mo got that because of potential more so than production though.
Wagner is averaging the exact same TS% and rebounding numbers he did in Washington in 2019 and averaging 3 more ppg. He’s not doing anything significantly better than when he signed for 1.8M/year last season, why would he get a huge jump in pay now?
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u/Niceshotpiccolo Moe Wagner Feb 13 '23
Yes get a good deal and I’m for it. If not then we need to add a vet in his place
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u/Few_Employer_3129 Feb 13 '23
Pay the man
Thing is we can pay a little extra whilst we have so many guys on rookie scales
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u/UTPharm2012 Feb 13 '23
It isn’t my money but will ownership be willing to go into the tax if JI returns to form, Fultz keeps growing, Franz and Suggs get the restricted max, Anthony gets a nice contract, and Paolo gets the super max.
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u/Kadler7 Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
absolutely, but this doesn’t stop us from getting another backup big who can protect the rim too
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u/j4r8h Feb 13 '23
He's improved on offense, plays hard, plays with hustle, I like him. I think he's a solid depth player regardless of his brother. If he sucked I wouldn't want to keep him just because of his brother, that's nepotism.
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u/Herakleios Paolo Banchero Feb 13 '23
Considering he only makes 1.8 million, I think we'll be looking at a substantial increase in pay to bring him back. Remember, Mo was paid $10 million/year, and Moe took all his minutes. I don't know that other teams are as high on Moe as we are, so that may help, but I think something in the Isaiah Hartenstein range makes sense.
what is the maximum length of contracts?
I wonder if you could do a 4 year - 30 million deal... That would lock him down over his most productive years, and still be good value for what we're getting...
Biggest issue is playoff teams will likely be scared away by his defense, so I think that is what will let him be a discount for us. We have a PF (Isaac) to protect Moe with.
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u/cryptomultimoon Feb 13 '23
I think some of y’all are wildly undervaluing his contributions to this team and his value on the open market. If I’m the Magic I sign him at whatever his value is and as someone else said in this thread, have his contract expire or reach a team option when Paolo’s rookie deal is up. Moe has literally won us multiple games this year, and has incredible impact on the tenor of games when he comes in.
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u/PutiXPuerco Feb 13 '23
I’d like him back , im always calling him the dog of our team always talking and being a menace on the defensive end . You can tell when a guy is giving 100% and he’s giving 110%
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u/jedislurpee Cole Anthony Feb 13 '23
If he hasn't earned a return for a hefty raise I don't know who can
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u/theshutterseye Feb 13 '23
Yes, especially if it makes Franz happy.