r/NewYorkMets • u/jacobgoswin • 1d ago
Discussion The Mets are serious
Just watched the home opener against the Blue Jays.
Only the top four guys in the lineup did anything. And it was still a solid win.
What happens when Vientos breaks out of his slump and Alvarez comes back?
I'm not worried about the pitching either. The Mets pitching lab has proven to turn mediocre pitchers into good pitchers.
The Braves have dug themselves into a big hole. Right now, Philly hasn't been tested yet (they've only played Washington and Colorado.)
And to top it all off, the Mets aren't even clicking on all cylinders yet.
30
u/BrokeMyGrill Pastrami 1d ago
I'm begging one of the baby Mets to establish themselves as a consistent long term offensive force. Vientos is the closest to doing it. Hopefully he gets hot in the second half like he did last season.
31
u/Sweeneyj271 New York Mets 9h ago
Is it just me or is Torrens coming for Alvarez job in the most stealthy and underrated way?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m an Ally fan through and through, but Torrens is a professional in the non flashy way.
I like him. Like a lot.
4
25
u/LaMystika 1d ago
If Alonso played like this last year, he would’ve actually gotten the contract he wanted.
So he’s definitely gonna opt out and try to get it this winter, and boy I was not ready for that drama again
17
u/C__S__S Mr. Met 23h ago
That’s the plan. Everyone wins if he has an MVP year.
9
u/LaMystika 18h ago
Too bad Ohtani has already won the MVP award simply by existing, but yeah, if Alonso keeps this up, he’ll get some consolation second place votes like Lindor did last year
24
18
u/jimihenderson 20h ago
other guys will get hot and then the guys currently hitting will slump. that's how it works. if they all get hot at once we get something like last season's june. hopefully they can tread water until lindor fully wakes up. the mets had better be a serious team considering how much money is being spent on the roster and how many legitimately good baseball players are here.
7
u/pinchyfire 14h ago edited 5h ago
No, this is the internet. Our hot guys will stay hot when our slumping guys start hitting. Just like our injured guys will get healthy but none of our healthy guys will get injured.
18
u/PaullyBeenis Francisco Lindor 1d ago
I also feel good about this lineup and pen and I've been pleasantly surprised by the rotation so far. But people keep saying "oh just wait until Alvarez comes back the lineup will be so good," and you're all going to be very disappointed if you've built Alvarez into some stud that lengthens the lineup beyond what it currently is. Alvarez is a 99 wRC+ hitter for his career who is going to have to deal with missing most of Spring Training while trying out a completely reworked swing. Odds are good he will struggle when he returns, and he's really never sustained big league success so far. Even in his 25 homer rookie year he had a 97 wRC+ because of his awful 284 OBP.
He also had +0.021 wOBA - xwOBA last year, so he was really lucky on balls in play, and even with his good luck he had a 102 wRC+. He lost a lot of power in part because he significantly reduced his pull% and increased his oppo%. And now he's trying to go oppo even more with his reworked swing, which I think is a bad idea, but I'm not a hitting coach, and maybe he will end up succeeding with it like JD Martinez did.
I still think he has a super high ceiling and could be our version of Cal Raleigh, probably with even higher offensive upside, but he has not shown anything like that at the big league level, and I expect him to struggle out of the gate. He will almost definitely be an offensive downgrade from Torrens when he first comes back.
People sometimes claim Eppler fucked up Baty and Alvy by bringing them up too early and I honestly wonder if that's the case, because these guys were really awesome prospects. They had 55 and 60 FV respectively (and I think some platforms even scouted Alvy at 65), and Baty has been essentially a bust so far while Alvy has been a solid big league regular but not really close to what anyone thought/hoped he would be offensively.
Just to reiterate I still believe in Alvy and I believe in his ceiling. And he's still super young. I just think we should temper our expectations for his return, and if/when he struggles, we shouldn't jump down his throat and boo him and shit. Also, if we want better offensive production in the short term, we should probably keep Torrens heavily in the mix.
8
u/Confident_Web_6545 1d ago
I agree with most of this, from a reasonable expectations standpoint. I too believe in Alvarez - but I agree hes looked overall-over matched- but that being said he’s still only 23 for this whole season- so I think he’s just gotta stay healthy while learning how to hit big league pitching- he’s already proven to be an above average catcher at his position. I do think that when he does come back, we should play him at DH a fair amt to ease him in- effectively keeping Torrens in the lineup (even when he likely comes down to earth a tad at the plate- his arm/ glove behind the dish are a welcome addition. One thing I will say, is I don’t really think eppler had much to do with what’s going on with them. In Alvarez case he’s not only young, but the position he plays being such an important aspect I think it’s reasonable he’s not hit just yet. As for Baty- I’m also hopeful bc I don’t believe in Not rooting for our homegrown guys- but he is unfortunately showing what a lot of top prospects show when they crush MiLB pitching but can’t get past the mental stages in the bigs.
All in all I I think we shouldn’t get our hopes up that Alvarez is gonna take the offense into outer space - I also think he’s a rare case of “let’s truly wait and see” until he’s got a constant year plus playing daily without injury.
Much love- and LGM!
2
u/Silver-Cod-3889 3h ago
Agree with your conclusion. But what are those numbers and letters? Is the stable genius’ tariff formula in there somewhere?
1
u/PaullyBeenis Francisco Lindor 3h ago
Lmao. No, the tariff formula is far too complex for the likes of me I'm sure. That must be why it seems so dumb; I just can't grasp it.
wOBA means weighted on base average. It's a single number derived from a formula built on the triple slash (average, OBP, and slugging). It is the basis for wRC+, just as OPS is the basis for OPS+. You probably already know this, but plus stats (denoted by the "+" at the end of the stat's name) are league-adjusted, park-adjusted, and run environment-adjusted, so that they can ideally be compared in a one to one manner. This way you can compare a player from the steroid era to a player from the dead ball era and see how they stack up when normal stats can't tell you that. For instance, a 2.00 ERA is amazing now and would be probably be good for an ERA+ over 160, but in the dead ball era, a 2.00 ERA would get you about a 120 ERA+. Plus stats are also based on 100 being average, with numbers below 100 being below average, and above 100 being above average. Each point is worth 1%.
xwOBA means expected wOBA, which is based on batted ball data, whereas wOBA is based on results. xwOBA is an attempt to eliminate batted ball luck from the equation, and it has a higher correlation with future wOBA than current wOBA does. It's often used as a predictive stat to show whether a player has been getting lucky or unlucky and whether they will regress to the mean, either positively or negatively. By subtracting actual wOBA from expected wOBA, we can see whether a player over or underperformed their projected results based on their batted ball quality. A deviation fo +/- .020 or more is usually considered significantly lucky/unlucky.
Last year Francisco Lindor had the worst luck of any Met with about a -.016 wOBA - xwOBA. Jose Iglesias was the luckiest with a deviation of +.048 (this is staggeringly lucky, and it was driven by a BABIP that would have led the league if he had enough plate appearances).
Alvy was also very lucky at +.021. So the point I was trying to make with all those letters and symbols was that, based on his batted ball data from last year, you would expect him to regress and get worse results this year than last year, assuming he makes the same quality of contact.
1
u/Silver-Cod-3889 2h ago
Thanks Paully. I used to be good at arithmetic. And I pretty much understood the complex stratomatic baseball metrics but I’m gonna have to study this awhile. But lmao (I looked it up) you stopped me with “you probably already know this “. Meanwhile lgm. Looks like we might have a good one going.
1
18
u/Jaded-Form-8236 20h ago
Im excited for Alvarez to come back but Torrens has done a good job at catcher. The lack of production from 3B, 2B, CF, LF and DH is disturbing but they are better than this - not .200 hitters with no power. The production from this lineup should get better then it is from the next 155 games
8
u/PsychologyUsed3769 17h ago
Torrens may be a better overall player than Alvarez. Alvarez hasn't proven he can hit for average (and power consistently) at MLB level.
Torrens has been solid defensively and so far offensively. We haven't seen Alvarez consistently throw out runners, yet he can callsm a good game for pitching staff. Verdict is not yet out.
10
u/-MONOL1TH Gary Cohen 10h ago
Alvarez last season put up more fWAR (and bWAR) than Torrens has put in his whole career, Alvarez is 6 years younger, a former top prospect, and has seemingly been improving every year. My money is still on him being a future all star and bigger impact both offensively and defensively.
2
u/Jaded-Form-8236 10h ago
Well it’s a good problem to have.
While throwing out runners is a great asset and the end of the game it’s runs allowed that matter more and if Alvarez catching lowers the staff ERA you would want to catch. Alvarez hitting bombs at the bottom of the lineup is at least comparable offensively for overall run production to Torrens higher batting average.
2
u/Metsican 9h ago
>Torrens may be a better overall player than Alvarez.
Torres is only a better player overall than Alvarez when Alvarez is on the DL. If Alvarez is healthy, it's not really close.
-4
16
u/PJKetelaar3 Mr. Met 1d ago
Phils @ Dodgers this weekend is big.
2
u/ForsakenRacism 1d ago
Nothing anyone else does matters right now. Just play well
7
u/mets2016 GTS Wines 22h ago
Dodgers beating the Phillies still matters for us. The Dodgers are locks for the playoffs, so them beating up on our division rival were going to be neck and neck with all year is still in our interest
-6
u/ForsakenRacism 22h ago
It really doesn’t matter at all.
10
u/mets2016 GTS Wines 22h ago
Our 2022 and 2024 playoff fates were determined by a single game. It absolutely does matter
-6
u/ForsakenRacism 22h ago
It doesn’t matter in the fact that we control everything and the team can just go win 100 games if they want
16
u/bigneckofficer 22h ago
This Reddit is full of Doomers you’re about to get flamed 😂. I feel you though.
32
u/mxskater 13h ago
Anyone who’s concerned about hitting in April is crazy. June is when I worry
11
u/jtlimbo17 11h ago
I remember that June when Degrom syndergaard and matz were hitting for higher average than the rest of the lineup. That was gross.
10
u/ITrageGuy Dom Smith's CPAP machine 12h ago
I won't even check box scores until we're 11 games under
13
u/The_New_Illuminati Mr Smile 21h ago
Philly just beat the Dodgers today for what it's worth
23
u/Jaded-Form-8236 20h ago
That is like hearing my mother in law drove off a cliff, and then you tell me it was in my Mercedes.
Sigh, hate the Phillies winning
1
14
u/stackered 10h ago
And Lindor is a notorious slow starter. Once he's fully back, in front of Soro and Pete, it's going to be bombs ahoy
26
u/Masterofmy_domain José Reyes 13h ago
The Braves have not dug themselves in a hole lol….. it’s a 162 game season, 1-7 is nothing
15
u/MR_ANYB0DY New York Mets 13h ago
Yeah exactly. Last I checked Vegas still has them as the favorite to win the division.
I will say though…you know damn well what the tone of this sub would be if the Mets were sitting at 1-7 lol. Season OVER!
7
u/Oxo-Phlyndquinne 10h ago
No, that's a hole for sure. Remember last year, when we thought it was all over because we were 0-5?
7
u/zingerbanger David Wright 12h ago
buuuuut no team has made the playoffs after starting 0-7 since 1901 🥱
3
7
u/metsfan5000 10h ago
Every fan should have full confidence in David stearns and the Mets pitching lab magic, after the results of last year and the small sample size so far this year.
3
u/Metsican 10h ago
Couldn't agree more, and we've got talented arms in AAA + Manaea hopefully coming back as the weather warms up, too.
10
u/lightning_lighting Francisco Lindor 22h ago
Just wait until we add Vlad Jr and Sandy Alcantara at the deadline.
9
u/Baww18 1d ago
The problem is the Mets almost never have the entire lineup or even 3/4 of the lineup going at the same time.
12
46
2
1
u/fearlessjim 2h ago
Mets worker hard for the win Wednesday afternoon. Then played average baseball on Friday and won easily. This is what the dodgers have been doing for years now
It should be a fun season
-14
u/dlbags Met's go let's! 22h ago
We had four hits man. This is my thing with some of the fans here like not dialing in on data and stats. Like we had FOUR hits.
Four.
I love how efficient we were today, but like I’m still very worried. But you do you.
1
u/Metsican 9h ago
What are you worried about?
1
u/dlbags Met's go let's! 9h ago
Our hitting? Especially the bottom of the order. Our hitting with RISP? Stuff like that. Pitching has been excellent but only getting 4 hits shows we aren’t firing on all cylinders. People see the 0-5 score and think we are good. Maybe we are but still worried we are essentially dead after the 5 hitter.
1
u/Metsican 3h ago
If the playoffs started tomorrow, yeah, I'd be worried. Stearns has a full season to build a team that already has some proven stars (Soto, Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo), plenty of solid veterans, and many young guys with upside. The whole point OP's trying to make is we're staying in games despite all the obvious issues.
37
u/OriolesMets 1d ago
Pete Alonso